Wk 15- BUF +2 @ PITT

[GoBills808]

Line opened w/Steelers a 1 point favorite and pretty quickly rose to 2. Moneyline moved similarly with Bills opening -105 and Pittsburgh -120, now sitting at +115 and -135 respectively. So early money moves line in favor of Steelers who have won three straight versus the Bills coming off a loss to a superior BALT last Sunday. 

 

Trends of note:

 

1) I'm guessing??? that Connor and Smith-Schuster will be back, they are practicing this week. Pouncey I believe is also scheduled to return from suspension.

 

2) The o/u is opened @ 37 which is the lowest of all week 15 games. Considering how the respective defenses have been playing it's not hard to see why. Bills games have gone under 10 out of 13 games this season (I have been profitable parlay Bills ATS+the under this year), and the Steelers games have gone under last 5 straight. I would wait to see whether Connor and JJSS are confirmed playing before betting, but if either is scheduled to miss the game I'm taking the under once again. 

 

3)Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs. I'm not big on historical trends over 5 games back, but the Bills have been playing good football getting points and I think the team's mentality is a trend that holds under McDermott.  Bills are also value on the road, posting 5 wins and a push against the spread and going 5-1 straight up. 

 

4) Duck Hodges and the Steelers offense- Yes, they are 3-0 ATS and SU in his last (and only) three starts this year. However...in those games the Steelers defense and ST has been responsible for a ridiculous 52% of their points scored if I'm reading this correctly and I'm pretty sure I am. That's totally unsustainable imo. Bills will look to limit turnovers and invite the Steelers offense to try to score. I do not see them being successful (Pittsburgh I mean).

 

What it all means to me- I like Bills and the points here. I see a very conservative (surprise!) gameplan on offense to limit turnovers, mistakes, and play field position. Lots of field goals from a suddenly deadeye Haushka. If you like a two teamer the under is probably pretty safe imo. See this one something like Bills 17-13. Good luck.

[GoBills808]

This is specifically wrt betting and by request

[atlbillsfan1975]

Historically whenever someone asks me about betting on a Bills game I say ‘don’t do it’. This year does feel different. I don’t think the Bills lose two in a row. As long as Pitt is favored I think you are ok. O/U is tricky in this one. Lean under. .

Edited December 11, 2019 by atlbillsfan1975

[Pokebball]

5 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Historically whenever someone asks me about betting on a Bills game I say ‘don’t do it’. This year does feel different. I don’t think the Bills lose two in a row. As long as Pitt is favored I think you are ok. O/U is tricky in this one. Lean under. .

I think over is easy money.  But I don't bet on my teams.

[JoshAllin]

Bills  are also 3-0 after an L this season, they will come out fired up

[IDBillzFan]

26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 If you like a two teamer the under is probably pretty safe imo. See this one something like Bills 17-13. Good luck.

 

Back in my gambling days, this would be a great first-half under bet. Just like this past Sunday. It'll probably sit around 16 or 17.

[JerseyBills]

I wasn't impressed with Pitt versus an inferior Cardinal team. 

That game tape really calmed my nerves. Their O is bad bad. They had a ST return TD. Murray threw a brutal pick on Pits 2 yard line as well as 2 more Rookie ints and it was basically a neutral field with all the Steeler fans

I see this game going like the Denver gm. 20-6 or something like that

[Happy]

I'd take the Bills at +2.  Not sure on over/under, that is tricky; while 37 points is not a lot of scoring, neither offense is exactly high powered.  It should be a defensive struggle, and neither coach tends to run up the score.  I'd dub this game the Conservative Bowl.

[HOUSE]

This could very well be a snow game

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Pittsburgh+PA?canonicalCityId=c2be8b1617461b93a755108c3c88493a5a38a4c023045792ffaeff9c4c7fc422

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by HOUSE

[Mike in Horseheads]

57 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

Hate to burst your bubble 808

 

 

 

 

 

Hate to burst your bubble we want this thread

[GoBills808]

Myself personally- I am waiting to see more movement on the moneyline. I have a BUF+2/under play right now but if I see anything over +130 I think there's a lot of value there.

 

Sidenote: I may update this thread as the line moves throughout the week...and congratulations to whoever got in early on RAMS +4 and +135 early open before they took it down

[Mike in Horseheads]

3 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

This could very well be a snow game

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Pittsburgh+PA?canonicalCityId=c2be8b1617461b93a755108c3c88493a5a38a4c023045792ffaeff9c4c7fc422

Been watching that, doesn't look like much at this point

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

This game is Denver part 2 except its on the road. Maybe something like 17-9 Bills.

[Mike in Horseheads]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Myself personally- I am waiting to see more movement on the moneyline. I have a BUF+2/under play right now but if I see anything over +130 I think there's a lot of value there.

 

Sidenote: I may update this thread as the line moves throughout the week...and congratulations to whoever got in early on RAMS +4 and +135 early open before they took it down

Had Eagles -9 last night. After they got down took them -2 and covered

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

21 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Hate to burst your bubble we want this thread

My mistake 

 

[Dablitzkrieg]

I'm nervous about this game.  Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

1) I'm guessing??? that Connor and Smith-Schuster will be back, they are practicing this week. Pouncey I believe is also scheduled to return from suspension.

Didn't he play in the Arizona game?

[Rochesterfan]

8 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Didn't he play in the Arizona game?

Yes he did.

[Boatdrinks]

23 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

I'm nervous about this game.  Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season

True, though in fairness the last time a good Bills team played at PIT was in the ‘90s.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yes exactly.....only difference being Pittsburg is actually a good team and Denver isn't.

Take a hike

[bigK14094]

This team has heart, but, weaknesses.  Our O is still fledgling....and the ST is subject to breakdowns.  Got outcoached in Miami (by Crossman no less)  Could happen again.  Close game imho...pickem....

[Tcali]

1 hour ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

I'm nervous about this game.  Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season

even in the golden kelly era we always got crushed there in the regular season. should be a good game.

[BuffaloBillies]

Bills are the better team, period. 

[RyanC883]

We need to win this game.   D is equal.  Offense we are better.   If not, then we have major issues.   Really, a franchise QB does not loose to an undrafted rookie.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Hate to burst your bubble we want this thread

but I thought it was about betting.  
 

funny how that turned out.    
 

 

one sure way not to lose.  Don’t bet 

[JerseyBills]

23-9 Bills

Bills and Under ?

[GoBills808]

26 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

but I thought it was about betting.  
 

funny how that turned out.    
 

 

one sure way not to lose.  Don’t bet 

You’ll never lose if you never gamble.

 

But you’ll never win either??

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

We need to win this game.   D is equal.  Offense we are better.   If not, then we have major issues.   Really, a franchise QB does not loose to an undrafted rookie.  

The D is not equal. The PIT D causes havoc for QBs, creates takeaways like crazy and scores TDs. The Bills D beats you with coverages, confusion and discipline. They cause punts, but not many takeaways. It’s really a bad matchup. The onus is on the Bills offense to score with few playmakers vs a pressure defense. The PIT D and physical offensive players allow them to scrape by with a caretaker QB. The Bills do have major issues going toe to toe with exactly the type of defense they’ll be facing this week. NFL is really all about matchups. Just a quirk of the schedule that they get several of these defenses in December. 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Boatdrinks

[Chandler#81]

4 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

I'm nervous about this game.  Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season

Oh, how quickly we forget.

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

To be fair, he qualified it with “ in regular season”. 

[Irv]

I feel the Bills consistently being the underdogs has a lot more to do with sucking for almost 20 years than the team that is on the field today.  The guys who set the lines factor that in.  It’s going to take a long time to get the stink off the team.  I have no doubt they win outright Sunday night. 

[Teddy KGB]

9 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

but I thought it was about betting.  
 

funny how that turned out.    
 

 

one sure way not to lose.  Don’t bet 

 

And no premarital sex either ! 

[Dablitzkrieg]

6 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Oh, how quickly we forget.

 

 

I didn't forget.  As I stated, regular season.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Arguably the Steelers' run of constant wins over the Bills, especially at home, is basically more impressive than what the Patriots have done to us in terms of longevity--wish I could put my finger on it, but it's just a snakebit town for us. Side note as to the last time we won in Pburgh in the regular season--it was 1975 and the Steelers were in their 70's dynastic heyday, winning another Super Bowl that year too. That year's Steelers team went 12-2, and steamrolled through their division 6-0. Their only "real" loss that year? 30-21 at the hand of the eventual 8-6 Bills, in Week 2 (The Steelers other loss was in Week 14 when all starters were resting against the Raiders). Think about that for a minute--the Bills put up 30 points at 3 Rivers against one of the best D units the league has ever seen! Hope springs eternal for this Bills fan...even if I had to reference a game that occurred prior to my even being a twinkling in my dad's eye 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pittsburgh_Steelers_season

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 hour ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Arguably the Steelers' run of constant wins over the Bills, especially at home, is basically more impressive than what the Patriots have done to us in terms of longevity--wish I could put my finger on it, but it's just a snakebit town for us. Side note as to the last time we won in Pburgh in the regular season--it was 1975 and the Steelers were in their 70's dynastic heyday, winning another Super Bowl that year too. That year's Steelers team went 12-2, and steamrolled through their division 6-0. Their only "real" loss that year? 30-21 at the hand of the eventual 8-6 Bills, in Week 2 (The Steelers other loss was in Week 14 when all starters were resting against the Raiders). Think about that for a minute--the Bills put up 30 points at 3 Rivers against one of the best D units the league has ever seen! Hope springs eternal for this Bills fan...even if I had to reference a game that occurred prior to my even being a twinkling in my dad's eye 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pittsburgh_Steelers_season

 

 

You are a treasure, Sir.

 

Stay gold, Pony Boy!

 

Elect SDS President...make HUDS King!*

 

 

 

 

 

*  No payment was made by HUDS to Dollars 2 Donuts for the praise and admiration indicated above.  D2D is just a fan.

Edited December 11, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Arguably the Steelers' run of constant wins over the Bills, especially at home, is basically more impressive than what the Patriots have done to us in terms of longevity--wish I could put my finger on it, but it's just a snakebit town for us. Side note as to the last time we won in Pburgh in the regular season--it was 1975 and the Steelers were in their 70's dynastic heyday, winning another Super Bowl that year too. That year's Steelers team went 12-2, and steamrolled through their division 6-0. Their only "real" loss that year? 30-21 at the hand of the eventual 8-6 Bills, in Week 2 (The Steelers other loss was in Week 14 when all starters were resting against the Raiders). Think about that for a minute--the Bills put up 30 points at 3 Rivers against one of the best D units the league has ever seen! Hope springs eternal for this Bills fan...even if I had to reference a game that occurred prior to my even being a twinkling in my dad's eye 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pittsburgh_Steelers_season

 

227 on the ground from OJ?  dayum.  

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 hour ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Arguably the Steelers' run of constant wins over the Bills, especially at home, is basically more impressive than what the Patriots have done to us in terms of longevity--wish I could put my finger on it, but it's just a snakebit town for us. Side note as to the last time we won in Pburgh in the regular season--it was 1975 and the Steelers were in their 70's dynastic heyday, winning another Super Bowl that year too. That year's Steelers team went 12-2, and steamrolled through their division 6-0. Their only "real" loss that year? 30-21 at the hand of the eventual 8-6 Bills, in Week 2 (The Steelers other loss was in Week 14 when all starters were resting against the Raiders). Think about that for a minute--the Bills put up 30 points at 3 Rivers against one of the best D units the league has ever seen! Hope springs eternal for this Bills fan...even if I had to reference a game that occurred prior to my even being a twinkling in my dad's eye 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pittsburgh_Steelers_season

 

7 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

227 on the ground from OJ?  dayum.  

 

 

BTW, and I am honestly going off memory from the history of the Bills in team guides I used to look at as I was just a doe-eyed young lad in the 70s, that Bills team that finished an unfortunate 8-6 started the season at 4-0 and 6-2...they let the playoffs just slip away after that and that was it for Lou, the Bills and OJ, really until Knox's Bills.

 

OJ was truly one of the greatest RBs, but with dneveu's reference above, and recent thoughts on OJ's record setting 273 yards rushing for on Thanksgiving's Day shows 2  out of the only 6 times that OJ rushed for 200 yards. 

 

The more you know!

Edited December 11, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[dave mcbride]

9 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Oh, how quickly we forget.

 

 

He said regular season. 

16 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

227 on the ground from OJ?  dayum.  

1975 was OJ's best season. He had nearly 200 more yards from scrimmage than in the 1973 season, and he had 23 TDs in 1975 to 12 in 1973.  He averaged 15.2 yards per reception that season! Just unstoppable.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SimpO.00.htm

[mannc]

12 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

BTW, and I am honestly going off memory from the history of the Bills in team guides I used to look at as I was just a doe-eyed young lad in the 70s, that Bills team that finished an unfortunate 8-6 started the season at 4-0 and 6-2...they let the playoffs just slip away after that and that was it for Lou, the Bills and OJ really until Knox's Bills.

 

OJ was truly one of the greatest RBs, but with dneveu's reference above, and recent thoughts on OJ's record setting 273 yards rushed for on Thanksgiving's Day shows 2  out of the only 6 times that OJ rushed for 200 yards. 

 

The more you know!

I hope you’re not suggesting that six 200-yard games is a modest total.  No one has rushed for more, and OJ really only had five NFL seasons in his prime.

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

I hope you’re not suggesting that six 200-yard games is a modest total.  No one has rushed for more, and OJ really only had five NFL seasons in his prime.

 

 

I am absolutely not suggesting that. I am suggesting that history gets fuzzy as time goes by and some people think that such an event was a routine experience as a Bills fan.

 

It was not.  It was rare and special.

 

I believe Thurman may (may) have just had one, that Monday night game against the Jets.

 

Greg Bell had one too....against Dallas when the Bills didn't have a win yet, late in the season...84, I think.  I was there.

 

EDIT:  use of the word "only" doesn't insinuate an insult, just that such results were limited.

 

Edit 2:  @mannc  Thank you for pointing out the above so I could clarify.  I don't want there to be any confusion for what I was trying to say, which I should have expanded upon originally.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts