A Message of Calm from a Josh Allen Skeptic...

[BigDingus]

So many of you know I haven't really been a believer in what I've seen from Allen. In my opinion, he's exactly what scouts said he was prior to the draft, and he's played exactly as he did through his whole football career.

However... after today's game there's been a lot of people piling on him and even more yelling "the sky is falling!" because of this loss, and I don't believe it's warranted.

Let me be clear, the concerns people have are legitimate, but the ones lashing out are doing so emotionally, otherwise this performance wouldn't have thrown them off so much. Yes, Allen's fumble was costly, but despite his numbers, he made better decisions for much of the game than he often has all year.

Yes, he threw under 50% accuracy, but those numbers are skewed from those last drives trying to play catch up. He still hasn't thrown for 300 yards, with today throwing for less than 200, but his 2 TD's were both very well done. They showed genuine awareness, a firm grasp of what the defense was giving him, and the passes were actual passes (unlike say the TD "pass" to McKenzie in the Giants game). And yes, I know Singletary did most of legwork after receiving the pass.

It's important when a QB shows he knows how to run your offense, but what really separates the good QB's from the rest of the pack is the ones who know what the opposing defense is giving them. Even though Allen had trouble with that today, he's had trouble with that every game, only this time he showed a legitimate grasp of his surroundings & an improved awareness.

His troubles today seemed more on the execution front than a failure on the mental front. In my opinion, that's an EXTREMELY promising development, more so than "look, I can pull a win out of my butt against a lousy team to escape with a victory!"

 

Missing open passes & being unable to connect downfield really hurt, but when you're actually seeing those guys & know where the play is developing, that's monumental in the growth of a young QB. 

 

I've been harping on his bad deep ball accuracy since last year, but I like that more & more he's actually seeing those guys.

 

Just as overall record doesn't tell the whole story, neither do his stats for this game. My opinion on this team hasn't really changed, it just further highlights our obvious weaknesses. But seeing Allen being more decisive, even if he was off target, makes me happy. 

Don't think I'm saying this was his best game, or that he played great, rather specific aspects of his game that consistently have me concerned about his long term viability looked better, and that matters even in a loss. 

Win or lose, don't lose sight of what matters most - Allen's development. I'd rather take a ton of losses now if it leads to long term success & a franchise QB later. If Allen ends the season looking like he's made legitimate mental strides & shows serious growth in his awareness & ability to read defenses, I wouldn't care if we missed the playoffs *THIS* year.

Ultimately we haven't looked like a team that could pose a threat to real good teams in the playoffs this year anyway. Just making it in & getting immediately bounced isn't what will define this team. But if Allen's football IQ improves to a point where it can match his physical gifts, he really will be a scary good presence for years to come.

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To sum it up, I don't think there's any need to panic, I don't think we need to reach in a trade in hopes of maintaining a great regular season record, and I think Allen showed some positive growth even in this loss. Ideally, we'll not only bounce back next week, but Allen specifically will have his first great game of the year. If he can do that, it won't even matter if it's a weak opponent, I'll be genuinely impressed & seriously optimistic about his prospects

 

And yes, I highlighted in green the positives in case people just want skim through the good things lol

[buffalo2218]

Very nice post dude, it's not Allen or anyone else I'm concerned about. It's the coaching staff, mainly on the offensive side of the ball.

[oldmanfan]

Agreed.  For trades though they should look at a DT or pass rusher.   The DT especially, I have felt Star does what he should but you can’t ignore getting crushed up the middle all day.

[Johnnycage46]

3 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

So many of you know I haven't really been a believer in what I've seen from Allen. In my opinion, he's exactly what scouts said he was prior to the draft, and he's played exactly as he did through his whole football career.

However... after today's game there's been a lot of people piling on him and even more yelling "the sky is falling!" because of this loss, and I don't believe it's warranted.

Let me be clear, the concerns people have are legitimate, but the ones lashing out are doing so emotionally, otherwise this performance wouldn't have thrown them off so much. Yes, Allen's fumble was costly, but despite his numbers, he made better decisions for much of the game than he often has all year.

Yes, he threw under 50% accuracy, but those numbers are skewed from those last drives trying to play catch up. He still hasn't thrown for 300 yards, with today throwing for less than 200, but his 2 TD's were both very well done. They showed genuine awareness, a firm grasp of what the defense was giving him, and the passes were actual passes (unlike say the TD "pass" to McKenzie in the Giants game). And yes, I know Singletary did most of legwork after receiving the pass.

It's important when a QB shows he knows how to run your offense, but what really separates the good QB's from the rest of the pack is the ones who know what the opposing defense is giving them. Even though Allen had trouble with that today, he's had trouble with that every game, only this time he showed a legitimate grasp of his surroundings & an improved awareness.

His troubles today seemed more on the execution front than a failure on the mental front. In my opinion, that's an EXTREMELY promising development, more so than "look, I can pull a win out of my butt against a lousy team to escape with a victory!"

 

Missing open passes & being unable to connect downfield really hurt, but when you're actually seeing those guys & know where the play is developing, that's monumental in the growth of a young QB. 

 

I've been harping on his bad deep ball accuracy since last year, but I like that more & more he's actually seeing those guys.

 

Just as overall record doesn't tell the whole story, neither do his stats for this game. My opinion on this team hasn't really changed, it just further highlights our obvious weaknesses. But seeing Allen being more decisive, even if he was off target, makes me happy. 

Don't think I'm saying this was his best game, or that he played great, rather specific aspects of his game that consistently have me concerned about his long term viability looked better, and that matters even in a loss. 

Win or lose, don't lose sight of what matters most - Allen's development. I'd rather take a ton of losses now if it leads to long term success & a franchise QB later. If Allen ends the season looking like he's made legitimate mental strides & shows serious growth in his awareness & ability to read defenses, I wouldn't care if we missed the playoffs *THIS* year.

Ultimately we haven't looked like a team that could pose a threat to real good teams in the playoffs this year anyway. Just making it in & getting immediately bounced isn't what will define this team. But if Allen's football IQ improves to a point where it can match his physical gifts, he really will be a scary good presence for years to come.

.

.

.

.

To sum it up, I don't think there's any need to panic, I don't think we need to reach in a trade in hopes of maintaining a great regular season record, and I think Allen showed some positive growth even in this loss. Ideally, we'll not only bounce back next week, but Allen specifically will have his first great game of the year. If he can do that, it won't even matter if it's a weak opponent, I'll be genuinely impressed & seriously optimistic about his prospects

 

And yes, I highlighted in green the positives in case people just want skim through the good things lol

The D and coaching blew this game.  Not Allen.

[Big Turk]

I think Allen is getting closer and closer to putting it all together...we forget he has barely played an entire season worth of games and needed a lot of work coming in. I think by next season Allen will be much better than he is now and we will really have something....

[billsfan_34]

4 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Very nice post dude, it's not Allen or anyone else I'm concerned about. It's the coaching staff, mainly on the offensive side of the ball.

Me too- Daboll concerns me

[Bferra13]

Allen looked pretty good to me today, especially considering the conditions. Play calling and coaching decisions are what have me worried. 

[John from Riverside]

It’s a good post

i have seen improvements in josh

i think he is still developing

 

i would make a trade is we didn’t have to give up to much

[whatdrought]

second and 5th for Yannick?

[Nextmanup]

14 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

The D and coaching blew this game.  Not Allen.

Yeah, that sub-50% completion percentage and putting the ball on the carpet 3 times had nothing to do with the outcome of this game.

 

D got run over in 2nd half and that played a role here too, along with our own run game not working well.

 

But suggesting Allen isn't involved here is just a defense mechanism to make you feel better about where the team stands.

 

 

 

[dakrider]

Allen didn't play well at all in 4th qtr but the best he could have done was make the game closer.   But I agree Allen does show a good grasp of the offense and on many plays he doesn't panic and can make a nice touch pass.  The problem is in games like this one, that offensive gameplan doesn't lend much to actually winning the game.  Bills really need to develop more of a vertical field gameplan for games like this, although I will note the weather probably did limit some of the playcalling.  But you can't expect to win every game 16-10.  

 

[poblano]

Still calling running plays with him   will only harm his development.

[oldmanfan]

If I’m Josh I might demand the freedom to audible

[Orlando Tim]

16 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

Allen looked pretty good to me today, especially considering the conditions. Play calling and coaching decisions are what have me worried. 

I agree but I do wonder about out Online it did not open many holes for RB when we did run. If that continue I know we are done

 

[Boca BIlls]

Josh Allen fumbled twice while reading.

[LABILLBACKER]

30 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Very nice post dude, it's not Allen or anyone else I'm concerned about. It's the coaching staff, mainly on the offensive side of the ball.

This game today had nothing to do with Josh and everything to do with Dumbell.  This OC is destroying this team and Josh's development one game at a time. Changes will come.....

[atlbillsfan1975]

31 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Very nice post dude, it's not Allen or anyone else I'm concerned about. It's the coaching staff, mainly on the offensive side of the ball.

Daboll is the problem, he isn’t the right coach for Allen. McDermott needs to hire a young guy who understands how to coach a young guy like Allen. The passing coach down at LSU, Joe Brady, should be approached for the position immediately after the season.

[buffalo2218]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

This game today had nothing to do with Josh and everything to do with Dumbell.  This OC is destroying this team and Josh's development one game at a time. Changes will come.....

Couldn't agree more, Daboll seems so clueless. I would rather Allen call his own plays from here on, how much worse could it get?

[LABILLBACKER]

11 minutes ago, poblano said:

Still calling running plays with him   will only harm his development.

Ya think....Daboll is too stupid to figure that out.  Stop forcing JA into a young Cam. We don't want him to suffer the same fate.

[Bangarang]

Our offense sucks at scoring points. Blame whoever you want but it’s a problem. If our defense isn’t playing lights out then we don’t have a good chance.

[dubs]

At some point, Allen is going to have to take over a game and dominate. He really hasn’t done it. He’s had moments, flashes, drives, quarters, and even halves. But he hasn’t exploded yet and just dominated. Maybe that’s too much to expect at this point, maybe it’s not his fault, but that’s what I’m waiting for with Allen. 

[Buffalo Boy]

26 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Very nice post dude, it's not Allen or anyone else I'm concerned about. It's the coaching staff, mainly on the offensive side of the ball.

   I knew going into the season our receivers would be an issue.

   What I didn’t expect was the TE position to be almost nonexistent. I’m done with Knox. He can’t catch on a consistent basis. I don’t think it’s a fluke any longer. Every game he drops one he shouldn’t at critical times. I hope Kroft can step up.

    Then there is Beasely. He also drops entirely too many passes. For the second week he didn’t get his head around soon enough on a slant. Going in I though he would be a bread and butter guy but I still don’t have faith in him.

    Daboll doesn’t have any rhyme or reason to his play calling. I don’t see anyone else posting this but we should be running the ball repeatedly when we are in that groove. This team and Gore have shown the ability to move it on the ground and if they would EVER use Singletary early and consistently we might be in a better position.

    
 

[Nihilarian]

Gosh Darn Josh Allen... he allowed 31 points today and he couldn't stop the run!!!

 

And, he didn't block very well for the Bills run game!!!

 

Not only that, just because he led the team in rushing doesn't mean the OC didn't call enough run plays in the rain...what a...

[BITE ME]

Allen needs a real #1 receiver, not a #2 masquerading as a #1.

[GunnerBill]

I agree with this. He should have held onto the ball on the fumble. But the playcall sucked and Mitch Morse's attempted block was laughably bad. 

 

Other than that moment today was not on Josh. Is he quite ready to win a shootout yet? No. But that shouldn't be a shock. This was on lots of other people before it was on Josh Allen. 

[dakrider]

6 minutes ago, dubs said:

At some point, Allen is going to have to take over a game and dominate. He really hasn’t done it. He’s had moments, flashes, drives, quarters, and even halves. But he hasn’t exploded yet and just dominated. Maybe that’s too much to expect at this point, maybe it’s not his fault, but that’s what I’m waiting for with Allen. 

I just don't feel like that can happen with the current offensive system thats in place.  Allen could come out in a drive and throw 6-7 completed passes, move the ball and then they'll run 2 rushing plays in a row for total of 3 yards, get a false start penalty and not convert a 3rd and long.   Poor play calling, dropped passes and penalties and then Allen has to continually deal with 3rd and long situations all game long.  Odds are against any QB in that situation.  

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, dubs said:

At some point, Allen is going to have to take over a game and dominate. He really hasn’t done it. He’s had moments, flashes, drives, quarters, and even halves. But he hasn’t exploded yet and just dominated. Maybe that’s too much to expect at this point, maybe it’s not his fault, but that’s what I’m waiting for with Allen. 

 

This is fair. 

[Nihilarian]

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

This game today had nothing to do with Josh and everything to do with Dumbell.  This OC is destroying this team and Josh's development one game at a time. Changes will come.....

The Penalties are stupid drive killing mistakes that are hurting the offense! Where's the discipline?

 

The lack of building a power run game with two really good RBs. Singletarty averaging 6.3 Yards per carry average! Gore 8 carries. Singletary 3 carries...meanwhile the Eagles rushed 41 times for 218 yards. WTF!

 

Good thing Matt Miliano was back as he led the team in tackles with 13 TOT, 10 solo.

 

Dumbell needs to stop making the QB the focal point of the offense and run that damn ball! 

 

 

 

 

[Leftyman]

Blah blah blah we needed him to carry the team today. He failed. Spectacularly. 

[billsbackto81]

33 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

This game today had nothing to do with Josh and everything to do with Dumbell.  This OC is destroying this team and Josh's development one game at a time. Changes will come.....

That QB run call on 3rd and short after the 2:00 warning was mind boggling. Totally asinine and unoriginal play call on a wet and windy day deep on your side of the field is inexcusable. Oh, and BTW the D was playing well before that deflating play that turned momentum and eventually the game.

Edited October 27, 2019 by billsbackto81

[SJDK]

50 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Yeah, that sub-50% completion percentage and putting the ball on the carpet 3 times had nothing to do with the outcome of this game.

 

D got run over in 2nd half and that played a role here too, along with our own run game not working well.

 

But suggesting Allen isn't involved here is just a defense mechanism to make you feel better about where the team stands.

 

 

 

Allen doesn’t play defensive line. Also, did you notice how many drops there were today? Go tell the fishes that it’s all Allen’s fault.

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

The Penalties are stupid drive killing mistakes that are hurting the offense! Where's the discipline?

 

The lack of building a power run game with two really good RBs. Singletarty averaging 6.3 Yards per carry average! Gore 8 carries. Singletary 3 carries...meanwhile the Eagles rushed 41 times for 218 yards. WTF!

 

Good thing Matt Miliano was back as he led the team in tackles with 13 TOT, 10 solo.

 

Dumbell needs to stop making the QB the focal point of the offense and run that damn ball! 

 

 

 

 

 

Today I agree on the playcalling. It was not good. I still fundamentally disagree with how you want to run this offense though. 

[Victory Formation]

I’m still thinking 11-5, we have a soft schedule and our defense is still very good. Our offense is still missing an elite playmaker. I like Brown n Beezer but we need an AJ Green or Julio Jones. We desperately need a player like that. I’d offer Cincinnati two 3rds for Green. 

[TwistofFate]

Allen has become tentative throwing the ball the last few weeks.   He's so worried about throwing picks that he's like a hermet crawling in its shell.  You can see him second guess himself a lot in the pocket. 

 

Guys are open, and they are open a lot.  He's not delivering. 

 

Allen is a game manager, not a passer of the football.  He will not take games over passing the ball any time soon, if ever. 

 

The great ones would have shown that at some point in their career already, he hasn't.  

 

Can he grow?   Maybe.  But at this point in his career, with upgraded WRs, and offensive line, one would expect to see a breakout performance.  It hasn't come. 

 

He's beginning to look like a major liability out there.   Week after week of turnovers and lack of big plays are more than concerning at this point. 

 

Meanwhile Watson, Mahomes, Jackson, Minshew, and others, continue to look light-years ahead. 

 

Im concerned.....greatly. 

[BillsFanSD]

This game was all on the defense.  Allen was fine.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, TwistofFate said:

Allen has become tentative throwing the ball the last few weeks.   He's so worried about throwing picks that he's like a hermet crawling in its shell.  You can see him second guess himself a lot in the pocket. 

 

Guys are open, and they are open a lot.  He's not delivering. 

 

Allen is a game manager, not a passer of the football.  He will not take games over passing the ball any time soon, if ever. 

 

The great ones would have shown that at some point in their career already, he hasn't.  

 

Can he grow?   Maybe.  But at this point in his career, with upgraded WRs, and offensive line, one would expect to see a breakout performance.  It hasn't come. 

 

He's beginning to look like a major liability out there.   Week after week of turnovers and lack of big plays are more than concerning at this point. 

 

Meanwhile Watson, Mahomes, Jackson, Minshew, and others, continue to look light-years ahead. 

 

Im concerned.....greatly. 

Um, Brees hadn’t shown it this early.  Just as an example. That said, they need to take the handcuffs off and give Allen the keys to the car.

[TwistofFate]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Um, Brees hadn’t shown it this early.  Just as an example. That said, they need to take the handcuffs off and give Allen the keys to the car.

Agree, he needs to be able to sling it, but he's become tentative because of the numerous ints this season that have hurt the team. 

 

Comparing Allen to Brees is insanity.   Brees has always been dominant.   He was one of the best Qbs in the nation in college, and set several college passing records that have still yet to be broken. 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, TwistofFate said:

Agree, he needs to be able to sling it, but he's become tentative because of the numerous ints this season that have hurt the team. 

 

Comparing Allen to Brees is insanity.   Brees has always been dominant.   He was one of the best Qbs in the nation in college, and set several college passing records that have still yet to be broken. 

No after his first couple years Brees was still figuring it out.  That said, I think they need to give Allen the keys to the car and let him drive.  Including more audibles.

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, FUTURIST said:

Allen needs a real #1 receiver, not a #2 masquerading as a #1.

Yeah. I love John Brown. He's been a real find, but we rarely see him being used as a deep threat. Beasley's doing his job, but he's limited. But today we saw McD and Daboll had to make a difficult choice: try to bring the deep ball back by making Foster active, or try to keep the threat of the jet sweep and screen that McKenzie brings us. They couldn't have both. Duke was a nonfactor. Kroft finally did something, but Knox has been a liability. It's a competent offense this year, unlike last year when good things only happened when Allen improvised and forced them to happen. But it's still just not close to the better offenses talent-wise.

[Comebackkid]

i think its pretty sad that we are behind on offense where we were last year after allens injury.   yes the short passes have improved and thats on josh not wonder brains play calling.  

its pretty obvious something is wrong with the offense when there is no flow to it.  I think Daboll has no clue how to utilize talent.   which is why im skeptical  that bringing in talented wrs will make much of a difference.  maybe one more play a game.  

 

Also it seems every week we fail to take advantage of a teams weakness.   it blows my mind how a team can be totally devoid of talent for 5 games in a certain area and we have zero ability to capitalize on it.