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A Message of Calm from a Josh Allen Skeptic...


BigDingus

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So many of you know I haven't really been a believer in what I've seen from Allen. In my opinion, he's exactly what scouts said he was prior to the draft, and he's played exactly as he did through his whole football career.

However... after today's game there's been a lot of people piling on him and even more yelling "the sky is falling!" because of this loss, and I don't believe it's warranted.

Let me be clear, the concerns people have are legitimate, but the ones lashing out are doing so emotionally, otherwise this performance wouldn't have thrown them off so much. Yes, Allen's fumble was costly, but despite his numbers, he made better decisions for much of the game than he often has all year.

Yes, he threw under 50% accuracy, but those numbers are skewed from those last drives trying to play catch up. He still hasn't thrown for 300 yards, with today throwing for less than 200, but his 2 TD's were both very well done. They showed genuine awareness, a firm grasp of what the defense was giving him, and the passes were actual passes (unlike say the TD "pass" to McKenzie in the Giants game). And yes, I know Singletary did most of legwork after receiving the pass.

It's important when a QB shows he knows how to run your offense, but what really separates the good QB's from the rest of the pack is the ones who know what the opposing defense is giving them. Even though Allen had trouble with that today, he's had trouble with that every game, only this time he showed a legitimate grasp of his surroundings & an improved awareness.

His troubles today seemed more on the execution front than a failure on the mental front. In my opinion, that's an EXTREMELY promising development, more so than "look, I can pull a win out of my butt against a lousy team to escape with a victory!"

 

Missing open passes & being unable to connect downfield really hurt, but when you're actually seeing those guys & know where the play is developing, that's monumental in the growth of a young QB. 

 

I've been harping on his bad deep ball accuracy since last year, but I like that more & more he's actually seeing those guys.

 

Just as overall record doesn't tell the whole story, neither do his stats for this game. My opinion on this team hasn't really changed, it just further highlights our obvious weaknesses. But seeing Allen being more decisive, even if he was off target, makes me happy. 

Don't think I'm saying this was his best game, or that he played great, rather specific aspects of his game that consistently have me concerned about his long term viability looked better, and that matters even in a loss. 

Win or lose, don't lose sight of what matters most - Allen's development. I'd rather take a ton of losses now if it leads to long term success & a franchise QB later. If Allen ends the season looking like he's made legitimate mental strides & shows serious growth in his awareness & ability to read defenses, I wouldn't care if we missed the playoffs *THIS* year.

Ultimately we haven't looked like a team that could pose a threat to real good teams in the playoffs this year anyway. Just making it in & getting immediately bounced isn't what will define this team. But if Allen's football IQ improves to a point where it can match his physical gifts, he really will be a scary good presence for years to come.

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To sum it up, I don't think there's any need to panic, I don't think we need to reach in a trade in hopes of maintaining a great regular season record, and I think Allen showed some positive growth even in this loss. Ideally, we'll not only bounce back next week, but Allen specifically will have his first great game of the year. If he can do that, it won't even matter if it's a weak opponent, I'll be genuinely impressed & seriously optimistic about his prospects :)

 

And yes, I highlighted in green the positives in case people just want skim through the good things lol

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3 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

So many of you know I haven't really been a believer in what I've seen from Allen. In my opinion, he's exactly what scouts said he was prior to the draft, and he's played exactly as he did through his whole football career.

However... after today's game there's been a lot of people piling on him and even more yelling "the sky is falling!" because of this loss, and I don't believe it's warranted.

Let me be clear, the concerns people have are legitimate, but the ones lashing out are doing so emotionally, otherwise this performance wouldn't have thrown them off so much. Yes, Allen's fumble was costly, but despite his numbers, he made better decisions for much of the game than he often has all year.

Yes, he threw under 50% accuracy, but those numbers are skewed from those last drives trying to play catch up. He still hasn't thrown for 300 yards, with today throwing for less than 200, but his 2 TD's were both very well done. They showed genuine awareness, a firm grasp of what the defense was giving him, and the passes were actual passes (unlike say the TD "pass" to McKenzie in the Giants game). And yes, I know Singletary did most of legwork after receiving the pass.

It's important when a QB shows he knows how to run your offense, but what really separates the good QB's from the rest of the pack is the ones who know what the opposing defense is giving them. Even though Allen had trouble with that today, he's had trouble with that every game, only this time he showed a legitimate grasp of his surroundings & an improved awareness.

His troubles today seemed more on the execution front than a failure on the mental front. In my opinion, that's an EXTREMELY promising development, more so than "look, I can pull a win out of my butt against a lousy team to escape with a victory!"

 

Missing open passes & being unable to connect downfield really hurt, but when you're actually seeing those guys & know where the play is developing, that's monumental in the growth of a young QB. 

 

I've been harping on his bad deep ball accuracy since last year, but I like that more & more he's actually seeing those guys.

 

Just as overall record doesn't tell the whole story, neither do his stats for this game. My opinion on this team hasn't really changed, it just further highlights our obvious weaknesses. But seeing Allen being more decisive, even if he was off target, makes me happy. 

Don't think I'm saying this was his best game, or that he played great, rather specific aspects of his game that consistently have me concerned about his long term viability looked better, and that matters even in a loss. 

Win or lose, don't lose sight of what matters most - Allen's development. I'd rather take a ton of losses now if it leads to long term success & a franchise QB later. If Allen ends the season looking like he's made legitimate mental strides & shows serious growth in his awareness & ability to read defenses, I wouldn't care if we missed the playoffs *THIS* year.

Ultimately we haven't looked like a team that could pose a threat to real good teams in the playoffs this year anyway. Just making it in & getting immediately bounced isn't what will define this team. But if Allen's football IQ improves to a point where it can match his physical gifts, he really will be a scary good presence for years to come.

.

.

.

.

To sum it up, I don't think there's any need to panic, I don't think we need to reach in a trade in hopes of maintaining a great regular season record, and I think Allen showed some positive growth even in this loss. Ideally, we'll not only bounce back next week, but Allen specifically will have his first great game of the year. If he can do that, it won't even matter if it's a weak opponent, I'll be genuinely impressed & seriously optimistic about his prospects :)

 

And yes, I highlighted in green the positives in case people just want skim through the good things lol

The D and coaching blew this game.  Not Allen.

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I think Allen is getting closer and closer to putting it all together...we forget he has barely played an entire season worth of games and needed a lot of work coming in. I think by next season Allen will be much better than he is now and we will really have something....

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14 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

The D and coaching blew this game.  Not Allen.

Yeah, that sub-50% completion percentage and putting the ball on the carpet 3 times had nothing to do with the outcome of this game.

 

D got run over in 2nd half and that played a role here too, along with our own run game not working well.

 

But suggesting Allen isn't involved here is just a defense mechanism to make you feel better about where the team stands.

 

 

 

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Allen didn't play well at all in 4th qtr but the best he could have done was make the game closer.   But I agree Allen does show a good grasp of the offense and on many plays he doesn't panic and can make a nice touch pass.  The problem is in games like this one, that offensive gameplan doesn't lend much to actually winning the game.  Bills really need to develop more of a vertical field gameplan for games like this, although I will note the weather probably did limit some of the playcalling.  But you can't expect to win every game 16-10.  

 

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16 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

Allen looked pretty good to me today, especially considering the conditions. Play calling and coaching decisions are what have me worried. 

I agree but I do wonder about out Online it did not open many holes for RB when we did run. If that continue I know we are done

 

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30 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Very nice post dude, it's not Allen or anyone else I'm concerned about. It's the coaching staff, mainly on the offensive side of the ball.

This game today had nothing to do with Josh and everything to do with Dumbell.  This OC is destroying this team and Josh's development one game at a time. Changes will come.....

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31 minutes ago, buffalo2218 said:

Very nice post dude, it's not Allen or anyone else I'm concerned about. It's the coaching staff, mainly on the offensive side of the ball.

Daboll is the problem, he isn’t the right coach for Allen. McDermott needs to hire a young guy who understands how to coach a young guy like Allen. The passing coach down at LSU, Joe Brady, should be approached for the position immediately after the season.

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1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

This game today had nothing to do with Josh and everything to do with Dumbell.  This OC is destroying this team and Josh's development one game at a time. Changes will come.....

Couldn't agree more, Daboll seems so clueless. I would rather Allen call his own plays from here on, how much worse could it get?

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