Why the 7 point spread with the Bills at Home?

[Stallions]

The smart men that know the NFL inside & out are making the Patriots 7 point favorites Sunday at New Era Field.  It’s actually a smart bet!

They are basing this on a game as follows:

 

-Bills control time of possession 32-28 mins

-Brady throws for 238 yards

-Allen throws for 170 yards on 16 completions

-Bills rush for 142 yards

-PATS rush for 105 yards

-Each team punts 4 times

SCORE:  24-16     

HOW DO WE BEAT THAT SCENARIO ?

[1ManRaid]

By scoring more points than them.

Edited September 25, 2019 by 1ManRaid

[mramefa]

Vegas doesn't base the points spread on a single detailed hypothetical scenario...

[transplantbillsfan]

Because history.

[Billsatlastin2018]

Uhhhhh...

 

THIS...

 

The Patriots enter this week with a streak of five straight victories against Buffalo, including series sweeps in 2017 and 2018. the 14th series sweep since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000. 

New England holds a 74-43-1 edge in the series and have won 33 of the last 38 games between the clubs, dating back to 2000. 

 

AND THIS...

 

BRADY VS. BUFFALO

Tom Brady has led the Patriots to 30 regular-season victories over the Bills, his highest victory total over any opponent. Additionally, Brady has thrown more touchdown passes (69) against Buffalo than any other opponent. Brady also has more 300-yard games (11) against Buffalo than any other NFL team. 

[RocCityRoller]

historically, a home team gets +3 points for home field advantage

 

a -7 at home means the smart people who set lines feel that New England is 10 points better than Buffalo on a neutral field.
 

Only 10 points off of the defending SB champion, who has not allowed an offensive TD this year is actually a spread giving Buffalo credit and looking to sucker in Bills fans.

 

The smart money is on New England. The spread started at -6 or -6.5 depending on the book.The fact it is now 7 to 7.5 means more money is backing New England, as it should.

 

I think the Bills have a chance for the upset.

 

Vegas wants people like me to bet. Therefore this week I sit on my money. Many Bills fans have.

[Boatdrinks]

They are basing it on the last 18 years. Before Brady , the season series between the clubs stood at 41-38-1 in favor of New England. Pretty even. Since ? Not even close as it’s 74-43-1 and counting. The Bills are at home, but they’re playing the Patriots. Hence the spread. 

[Stallions]

51 minutes ago, nrenegar said:

Vegas doesn't base the points spread on a single detailed hypothetical scenario...

 

This comes from Vegas!  Do you think they throw out a point spread Monday AM just based on home/away records or historical trends?  They build a program for all the games, get a spread and then stick to it.  If the weather at New Era gets ugly or Edelman can't play that may throw a point or two!

[Just Joshin']

7 minutes ago, Stallions said:

 

This comes from Vegas!  Do you think they throw out a point spread Monday AM just based on home/away records or historical trends?  They build a program for all the games, get a spread and then stick to it.  If the weather at New Era gets ugly or Edelman can't play that may throw a point or two!

The goal of the book is to get people to bet evenly on both sides - this way they will make money.  The perception is across the country is that NE is the best team in the league so they point spread must be high enough to get bets on the Bills. 

[mramefa]

3 minutes ago, Stallions said:

 

This comes from Vegas!  Do you think they throw out a point spread Monday AM just based on home/away records or historical trends?  They build a program for all the games, get a spread and then stick to it.  If the weather at New Era gets ugly or Edelman can't play that may throw a point or two!

A couple quick corrections not that relevant to my main point: Vegas does ensemble models (not a model) to create ranges of probabilistic predictions, and taking into account how people usually bet they aim for an arbitrage position. They also don't stick to the point spread, and do Bayesian updating based on the bets they receive.

 

Layman's overview of the salient point: the points spread Vegas sets is based on where they think they can make money, given the actions of irrational betters. Just because Vegas has a -7 spread on the Bills doesn't necessarily mean that Vegas thinks the Pats have a >50% chance of winning by at least 7. Rather it means that Vegas thinks it will get action on a -7 point spread where they make a profit no matter what.

[Chandler#81]

OP, do you honestly think the Bills should be favored? We’re playing the 2 time Defending Super Bowl Champs who haven’t had a TD scored on their Defense yet, through 3 games. If you were Vegas, you wouldn’t consider this a close game? 

Hell, I’m thinking of playing Bills +7 and that’s just what they’re hoping for.

[ProcessTruster]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

OP, do you honestly think the Bills should be favored? We’re playing the 2 time Defending Super Bowl Champs who haven’t had a TD scored on their Defense yet, through 3 games. If you were Vegas, you wouldn’t consider this a close game? 

Hell, I’m thinking of playing Bills +7 and that’s just what they’re hoping for.

i'd take a 7 point loss at this point in the process.   shows that we can hang with the best team in the league.  this is not the season.  weird sh-t can happen and they could pull out an unlikely win, but I doubt it.   you need to have a heck of an offense to get through the Pats this year.  Only 3 or 4 teams can do that.  bills are not one of them. 

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

historically, a home team gets +3 points for home field advantage

 

a -7 at home means the smart people who set lines feel that New England is 10 points better than Buffalo on a neutral field.
 

Only 10 points off of the defending SB champion, who has not allowed an offensive TD this year is actually a spread giving Buffalo credit and looking to sucker in Bills fans.

 

The smart money is on New England. The spread started at -6 or -6.5 depending on the book.The fact it is now 7 to 7.5 means more money is backing New England, as it should.

 

I think the Bills have a chance for the upset.

 

Vegas wants people like me to bet. Therefore this week I sit on my money. Many Bills fans have.

 

The Bills have a chance for an upset but that would mean the Bills need to play near perfect and catch New England when they are not playing their best. Until proven otherwise, New England is the class of the NFL, and routinely beats pretty much everyone, not just Buffalo.

[PlayoffsPlease]

Bookmakers at the large shops have their own version of power rankings that assign a numerical value to each team based on expected performance against an average team.  Home field advantage is actually not an automatic 3 points, but is based on teams actual histories.  But it is typically between 2.5 and 3.  So 3 is a perfectly fine short hand.  The use this to set INITIAL betting lines. The actually lines move depending on actual bets placed, to try to keep the action even on both sides. 

Currently bookmakers rate the Patriots in the neighborhood of -10.  They rank the Bills in the neighborhood of -1.  With the home field advantage of 3, the initial line should be -11 - -1 +3 = 6.   Other factors such as know bettor bias (big market teams and teams like the Pats draw more bets to their side) are built into their algorithms as well.  

[BillsFanSD]

7-point dogs win about 25% of the time.  Honestly, I'm not sure that the Bills actually win this game one time out of four, but it's not that far off.  The line seems about right to me.

 

The Bills are way, way better than last year's team.  We seem to be pretty clearly on the right trajectory with an improving QB we can build around, solid performers at each position, and lots of youth.  There are all sorts of reason to be optimistic about the 2019 season and the years beyond.  That doesn't imply that we are in the same tier as New England (or Kansas City for that matter).    

[BigBuff423]

I wish the optimist in me could see the Bills getting a win this weekend, but I don't think that happens. As for all the media pundits expressing their confidence in the Pats' win, there's just no way to justify that they shouldn't. Until the Bills can win consistently AND prove they can beat the Patriots, I don't blame a single person for doubting it. That said, if the Defense shows out, then the Bills are in this game no matter what. I think I'm MORE concerned with the Pats Defense holding the Bills Offense than I am the Bills Defense holding the Pats Offense. 

 

Brady will Brady....but I could see the Bills' D keeping the score low while giving up yards. 

[stony]

+7 was pretty respectful towards the Bills IMO.

[1ManRaid]

Pats D is only #1 because they played the weak Steelers, tanking Dolphins, and Jets 3rd QB.

 

They are also down their starting LT, C, FB, two TEs, 1st round WR is on IR, and top two WRs are playing hurt.  Their running game has been weak, we'll be the best pass D they play, and our O is at least better than what they've played so far.

 

I'll take the 7 points at home, thanks.

[skibum]

Only 7? That is crazy.

Edited September 25, 2019 by skibum

[gjv001]

I have it from a reliable source that the Bills will win by 10.

[PatsFanNH]

Vegas does the spread based ion who they think the money is going be on and making it large enough get money on the other team. 

[1ManRaid]

3 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Vegas does the spread based ion who they think the money is going be on and making it large enough get money on the other team. 

So you're saying I should wait for the line to inflate from everyone betting on the Pats' "easy win"?

[PatsFanNH]

15 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

Pats D is only #1 because they played the weak Steelers, tanking Dolphins, and Jets 3rd QB.

 

They are also down their starting LT, C, FB, two TEs, 1st round WR is on IR, and top two WRs are playing hurt.  Their running game has been weak, we'll be the best pass D they play, and our O is at least better than what they've played so far.

 

I'll take the 7 points at home, thanks.

Pats D last gave a TD to a team in the AFCCG against KC. Our Center is our starter for the year since Andrews has blood clots in/on his lungs (scary stuff), Izzo one of our starting TE with Watson being back week 5.

 

Your O hasn't faced a good D either the 31st ranked Giants D,  27th ranked Cincy D, 21st ranked Jets D. who average 27 points a game given up... the Bills averaging 22 points. 

 

Pats O has faced garbage Ds as well the 32nd ranked Dolphins, 28th ranked steeler, and 21st ranked Jets averaging 32.9 points given up per game  Pats averaging 35.3  points a game.

 

first the Pats O with all those injuries doing above average on these teams while the Bills are below the average.. second my god is the AFC filled with putrid teams this year!!

 

This game comes down to how your O performs, Pats O will move the ball and score, will the Bills be able to as well? thats what we find out Sunday!

11 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

So you're saying I should wait for the line to inflate from everyone betting on the Pats' "easy win"?

if you believe the Bills will cover YES! what vegas wants is the line be exact because if its a push YOU LOSE!

[Mr. WEO]

8 hours ago, Stallions said:

 

This comes from Vegas!  Do you think they throw out a point spread Monday AM just based on home/away records or historical trends?  They build a program for all the games, get a spread and then stick to it.  If the weather at New Era gets ugly or Edelman can't play that may throw a point or two!

 

 

WTF?? lol

[Rigotz]

The worst part about a message board is that anyone is allowed to post.

[row_33]

9 hours ago, nrenegar said:

Vegas doesn't base the points spread on a single detailed hypothetical scenario...

 

yeah it does

 

fleece people who think they are smarter than they are

 

 

imagine thinking you can predict the outcome of a football game, and do better than 45% on point spreads... 

 

 

[chaccof]

9 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Uhhhhh...

 

THIS...

 

The Patriots enter this week with a streak of five straight victories against Buffalo, including series sweeps in 2017 and 2018. the 14th series sweep since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000. 

New England holds a 74-43-1 edge in the series and have won 33 of the last 38 games between the clubs, dating back to 2000. 

 

AND THIS...

 

BRADY VS. BUFFALO

Tom Brady has led the Patriots to 30 regular-season victories over the Bills, his highest victory total over any opponent. Additionally, Brady has thrown more touchdown passes (69) against Buffalo than any other opponent. Brady also has more 300-yard games (11) against Buffalo than any other NFL team. 

Unfortunately, this sums it up perfectly....until the Bills prove they can beat the Pats it will be hard for them to be favored IMHO

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, chaccof said:

Unfortunately, this sums it up perfectly....until the Bills prove they can beat the Pats it will be hard for them to be favored IMHO

 

and even when they do....

 

[quinnearlysghost88]

Honestly, -7 is showing us a little bit of respect. This team is a juggernaut compared to us. 

[TigerJ]

Both teams are 3-0.  Both teams enjoyed an opening season stretch over weak opponents.  Buffalo had a very small average margin of victory.  New England's smallest margin of victory was 16, ranging up to a 43-0 blowout.  It's not rocket science.  New England will mainly try to maintain their level of play, maybe tweaking some small things.  Buffalo needs to experience a major uptick in consistency and execution over an entire 60 minutes.

[BearNorth]

Ken Massey, who is a stats professor, has built statistical forecast models for all of the major pro and college sports, where he uses a lot of statistical analysis techniques.  He has this game at Pats 24 Bills 13. He has the Bills at home with an 18% win probability.  As a bills fan I hope he's wrong, but he has a pretty good track record.

[oldmanfan]

They're + 7 because they are expected to win by at least 10 points.  And looking at how the Pats have played this season, even Bills fans shouldn't argue that point.

 

Love the Bills, have since 1960, but this is going to be an extremely difficult game.

[Teddy KGB]

Because they always beat the Bills perhaps ? 

[Augie]

Whatever the outcome, don’t get too high or (more likely) too low over one game. Big picture we are pointing in the right direction. 

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, TigerJ said:

Both teams are 3-0.  Both teams enjoyed an opening season stretch over weak opponents.  Buffalo had a very small average margin of victory.  New England's smallest margin of victory was 16, ranging up to a 43-0 blowout.  It's not rocket science.  New England will mainly try to maintain their level of play, maybe tweaking some small things.  Buffalo needs to experience a major uptick in consistency and execution over an entire 60 minutes.

And just an FYI..

 

30 -3 Against Pitt

43-0 against Miami

 

**30-14 against the Jets  -  The Jets got a score from a muffed punt by Gunner (rookie) and a pick 6 off of Stidham our rookie backup QB. The Jets got ONLY 105 total yards of Offense. (they were worse than Miami IMO.)

 

So the Pats D while facing bad  Teams has averaged 1 point a game and 199 yards a game.  yes bad teams but pitching a virtual shut out threw 3 games and less than 200 yards per game given up is amazing no matter who you are facing. 

 

I do believe the Bills be the #5 seed and in any other division besides ours or the chiefs (including the NFC) they be favored to win the division. 

[Just Joshin']

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

Ken Massey, who is a stats professor, has built statistical forecast models for all of the major pro and college sports, where he uses a lot of statistical analysis techniques.  He has this game at Pats 24 Bills 13. He has the Bills at home with an 18% win probability.  As a bills fan I hope he's wrong, but he has a pretty good track record.

Care to post his track record?

[PatsFanNH]

6 minutes ago, Augie said:

Whatever the outcome, don’t get too high or (more likely) too low over one game. Big picture we are pointing in the right direction. 

GREAT WAY TO THINK! When the Pats signed AB I felt they did it for 1 reason to go 19-0 which IMO would have Brady retire and Stidham take over next year. now without AB i am almost waiting for a trade for a big name WR to be traded here for a 1st rounder. 

 

My point Buffalo's time is coming probably in a year or two. 

[ddaryl]

Bills are winning but making mistakes on the field they force themselves to have to overcome. 

Pats are a seasoned vet team with a HOF QB and HOF HC

 

Hard to argue the spread when you look at the product on the field and then add in recent history of both teams. The SB champions are deserving of this spread and it will be a very tough game for the Bills to win it.

[Figster]

2 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

And just an FYI..

 

30 -3 Against Pitt

43-0 against Miami

 

**30-14 against the Jets  -  The Jets got a score from a muffed punt by Gunner (rookie) and a pick 6 off of Stidham our rookie backup QB. The Jets got ONLY 105 total yards of Offense. (they were worse than Miami IMO.)

 

So the Pats D while facing bad  Teams has averaged 1 point a game and 199 yards a game.  yes bad teams but pitching a virtual shut out threw 3 games and less than 200 yards per game given up is amazing no matter who you are facing. 

 

I do believe the Bills be the #5 seed and in any other division besides ours or the chiefs (including the NFC) they be favored to win the division. 

Great start, 

 

Hasn't come that easy for us. Buffalo has been tested, faced adversity, and prevailed.

 

Tom Brady is at the top of the world, and likes playing in Buffalo,

 

We need to change the way he feels...

[Phil The Thrill]

11 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

historically, a home team gets +3 points for home field advantage

 

a -7 at home means the smart people who set lines feel that New England is 10 points better than Buffalo on a neutral field.
 

Only 10 points off of the defending SB champion, who has not allowed an offensive TD this year is actually a spread giving Buffalo credit and looking to sucker in Bills fans.

 

The smart money is on New England. The spread started at -6 or -6.5 depending on the book.The fact it is now 7 to 7.5 means more money is backing New England, as it should.

 

I think the Bills have a chance for the upset.

 

Vegas wants people like me to bet. Therefore this week I sit on my money. Many Bills fans have.

I’ve learned this one the hard way - never bet against New England.

 

I wouldn’t take the Bills until they prove they can beat Brady and Belichick