Run:pass ratio - what's best for Allen's development?

[NickelCity]

With our previous young quarterbacks, I saw the validity in a run heavy offense. It didnt always pan out (obviously), but i saw the logic in it.

 

With Allen, I feel like it's apparent that he's a rhythm passer. The third preseason game saw the return of the dreaded run run pass so that we could evaluate the run game, and we saw the offense stall. 

 

For the first time in awhile (probably due to Allen's natural passing ability), I'd like to see a pass heavy offense. I think such an approach will actually help Allen, contrary to the old school point of view that says let a young qb ride the run game. 

 

...I assume most of us want to see this...no?

 

 

Edited September 1, 2019 by NickelCity
More accurate title

[Bferra13]

Good subject. I agree and I just hope we have the receivers to facilitate such an offense. We may, time will tell.

[RiotAct]

1:1

[Rc2catch]

I just was a modern offense that’s consistent. 

I would love to see some 300 yard games that go along with a win. Love to see a dominant third down rushing team that can just overpower defenses. 

[BuffaloButt]

60/40 pass/run if JA is showing progress!

[MJS]

No, I really don't care. I just want to see execution. If we are running it well I want to see us pound it down their throats until they stop us. If we are passing it well and the defense can't seem to adjust, keep letting it fly.

 

I hope our offensive coordinator doesn't go into a game hoping for a certain ratio. We should be playing to our strengths and attacking the specific weaknesses of our defense.

[NickelCity]

7 minutes ago, MJS said:

No, I really don't care. I just want to see execution. If we are running it well I want to see us pound it down their throats until they stop us. If we are passing it well and the defense can't seem to adjust, keep letting it fly.

 

I hope our offensive coordinator doesn't go into a game hoping for a certain ratio. We should be playing to our strengths and attacking the specific weaknesses of our defense.

 

That's fair. From my perspective, I think a pass heavy offense will benefit Allen's development  more than run heavy. And it's really all down to him so...

 

Granted if things aren't working in a game Daboll has to adapt.

 

 

[SydneyBillsFan]

A lot will depend on the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing defence.

 

On our side, with Shady gone, Devin unproven and Gore on his last legs I suspect we will be running the ball a lot less, at least in the first half of the season. 

 

Either way, it is all contingent on Josh's ability to increase his completion percentage.

[RobbRiddick]

Earlier this off season I was convinced we were going to pass a lot early in games to try and build healthy leads, then run it heavy in the second half to break the opposing defense's back. 

 

Made sense to me, and would also allow us to let the defense loose and be aggressive to pick up more turnovers and sacks when they can tee off against the pass. 

 

Now I'm a bit more convinced that they'll just do the usual run, run pass approach but hope they don't. 

[rayray808]

Run vs Pass doesnʻt really matter to me ratio wise... we just canʻt be running on every single first down like we did in his last pre season game

 

We just need to eliminate predictability, because I think he is smart enough and talented enough to make the right read based on what the defense is giving him

[Buffalo Barbarian]

50/50

[BullBuchanan]

Going back to 2013 the Bills have ranked higher than 29th in Pass Percentage once (2014), you have to go back to 2011 for them to be in the top 10 (7th) at 60%. I don't think the stat alone helps that much in determining team success, because it can be affected heavily by the need to throw or grinding out games you're running away with. Last year The Pats, Rams, Saints Bears, Texans, and Ravens were all in the bottom 3rd and  still made the playoffs and two of those teams were in the superbowl.

However, the bills being 29th or lower every year without that kind of success is more indicative of outmoded style in my opinion.

[Niagara Dude]

6 hours ago, NickelCity said:

With our previous young quarterbacks, I saw the validity in a run heavy offense. It didnt always pan out (obviously), but i saw the logic in it.

 

With Allen, I feel like it's apparent that he's a rhythm passer. The third preseason game saw the return of the dreaded run run pass so that we could evaluate the run game, and we saw the offense stall. 

 

For the first time in awhile (probably due to Allen's natural passing ability), I'd like to see a pass heavy offense. I think such an approach will actually help Allen, contrary to the old school point of view that says let a young qb ride the run game. 

 

...I assume most of us want to see this...no?

 

 

I would pass on 60-65% of the plays,  only way he becomes a great QB is letting him throw the football.  I would like him to have at least 4-5 300 yard games this season for his confidence

[oldmanfan]

Not as much the ratio as mixing up when things are called.  Throw the ball more on first down with play action, run on 3rd and 4 when the D isn’t expecting it.  Being unpredictable on calls will help him succeed.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Not as much the ratio as mixing up when things are called.  Throw the ball more on first down with play action, run on 3rd and 4 when the D isn’t expecting it.  Being unpredictable on calls will help him succeed.

 

 

....agree....not a fixed percentage but rather what Daboll dials up in game plan based on what he thinks the opposing defense will give him.......could be 60/40 or 40/60, underneath if D takes away long ball or long ball interspersed if they key on run game or short game.....Allen's adaptabilty and ability to respond is more key IMO.....

[Just Joshin']

It has to be situational.  To have a set % will lead to failure.

[Boca BIlls]

Winning games is all that matters... Trying to force a way won't work. So if this game needs Allen to Pass the whole time then he better be able to do that. He isn't a rookie now, year 2, this is the year he NEEDs to step up.

[MAJBobby]

If the season ends with a 52-58 / 48-42 pass run Mix I can finally think we have graduated to a Modern Offense 

Edited September 1, 2019 by MAJBobby

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

I get your point about the speed of Allen's development, but that won't be the reason or a factor in the Bills' run/pass ratio this season. I'm sure more passing will lead to faster development, but probably only to a small extent. 

 

If the Bills are passing more than around 60/40 on the year, it's probably because they were losing more games and needed to mount comebacks, and I'd prefer to see that as little as posssible this year, even if that means Allen develops slightly slower as a result. For a young QB, confidence is important. Some of that comes from being better at dissecting defenses and executing difficult plays, but some of that comes from simply winning ball games.

[Fixxxer]

I want more opportunities within a drive, too many 3 and outs last year.

 

You can't win games consistenly if you keep giving the other team chances to move the ball or score points.

[Nextmanup]

"Allen's development" should no longer be a thing.  He got that luxury last year but that's gone now.  

He should step in and do it.  

 

If he can't, move on to the next one who can.

 

[longtimebillsfan]

8 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I just was a modern offense that’s consistent. 

I would love to see some 300 yard games that go along with a win. Love to see a dominant third down rushing team that can just overpower defenses. 

I want to see wins.

 

I am not sure why people are focused on how we win.

 

If we run the ball 60% of the time and win 10 games, I am okay with that.

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

I want to see wins.

 

I am not sure why people are focused on how we win.

 

If we run the ball 60% of the time and win 10 games, I am okay with that.

 

Ands Stats show that won’t happen 

[GunnerBill]

It only needs to be very slightly titled to the pass overall but it is the situations that matter. I want them to be close to 50/50 on first down. That would be a big step. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

I’m ok with not seeing a single running play called from the Bills this season. 

[BITE ME]

There is no ratio. It depends on who you are playing and how your defense is playing.  The Bills need to establish a running game early in games this year.  The 3rd and longs are killers for young quarterbacks. Defensive Coordinators just bring pressure and make life miserable.  It is much easier to confuse a 2nd year QB than a Tom Brady. Don't get into the 3rd and long situations and he will have a great year. 

[teef]

37 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

"Allen's development" should no longer be a thing.  He got that luxury last year but that's gone now.  

He should step in and do it.  

 

If he can't, move on to the next one who can.

 

So you don’t think Allen can continue to get better after this season?  I expect him to be better, but I don’t think he’s going to be a finished product after this season. 

9 minutes ago, Chemical said:

I’m ok with not seeing a single running play called from the Bills this season. 

This is reasonable. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Balance 

 

ergo 50-50

or close to it. 

 

1 minute ago, teef said:

This is reasonable.

I’m so glad there is an ignorant I mean ignore feature. 

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

1 minute ago, teef said:

So you don’t think Allen can continue to get better after this season?  I expect him to be better, but I don’t think he’s going to be a finished product after this season. 

 

This is reasonable. 

 

So how many years do you want to waste if he’s no good? QBs rarely if ever go from bad to great. 

 

I want two years of only pass plays to even out the last 15yrs.

 

?

 

I don’t think it will happen though 

[teef]

3 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Balance 

 

ergo 50-50

or close to it. 

 

I’m so glad there is an ignorant I mean ignore feature. 

 

People are just being insane. Again, I expect, (really want) to see a big step forward from Allen this year, but I can’t imagine he’s ready to command a high powered air attack. I want them to lean on the ground game more this year to open up the pass game. Josh tried to do too much last year and it showed. I’d like to see 50/50 to 55/45. 

1 minute ago, Chemical said:

 

So how many years do you want to waste if he’s no good? QBs rarely if ever go from bad to great. 

 

I want two years of only pass plays to even out the last 15yrs.

 

?

 

I don’t think it will happen though 

If you’re kidding I can enjoy this. If you’re not, i’m a little scared. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

People are just being insane. Again, I expect, (really want) to see a big step forward from Allen this year, but I can’t imagine he’s ready to command a high powered air attack. I want them to lean on the ground game more this year to open up the pass game. Josh tried to do too much last year and it showed. I’d like to see 50/50 to 55/45. 

If you’re kidding I can enjoy this. If you’re not, i’m a little scared. 

 

C’mon an all passing season as a promotion? That would be fun. Better than roll up the rim for sure. 

 

Allen should be ready to command a high powered air attack. Why take him at 7 otherwise?

[teef]

1 minute ago, Chemical said:

 

C’mon an all passing season as a promotion? That would be fun. Better than roll up the rim for sure. 

 

Allen should be ready to command a high powered air attack. Why take him at 7 otherwise?

You take him at 7 to be the long term answer at qb.  I completely expect him to be able to run an offense that leans heavy in throwing, but I’m not sure he’s going to be ready to do it this year. Again, that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t show massive improvement this year. If Allen looks the same this year as he did last year, we’re screwed. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

@teef

 

PLEASE DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS!!!

[billybob71]

44 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

C’mon an all passing season as a promotion? That would be fun. Better than roll up the rim for sure. 

 

Allen should be ready to command a high powered air attack. Why take him at 7 otherwise?

is that you Mike Shopp?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I want first down passes, not run-run-pass...punt.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, Chemical said:

So how many years do you want to waste if he’s no good? QBs rarely if ever go from bad to great. 

 

I want two years of only pass plays to even out the last 15yrs.

 

?

 

I don’t think it will happen though 

can you name some successful QBs that did not make the step up in year two they needed to and didn't see real success, until year three? I mean franchise QBs that may of taken more then two years to develop? it really shouldn't include those sitting behind anyone on the bench.

 

I could go do the research myself and would guess there are a few QBs that did find success in year 3 but I figured since you are so knowledgeable of the game, namely QBs, you would already know of such QBs who had? I mean you seem to already claim JA to be bad and rarely do they go from bad (year one) to great (year two) by year two, or so you don't think it will happen anyway?

 

seriously, name a few that became successful (great) by year 3. can you do that?

 

 

personally, I would give him 3 seasons. if he really doesn't show any (which I really don't see a decline) improvement in year two it may be time to start thinking about his replacement? either through the draft or fa and have the QB competition in year threes off season. if JA beats any one out, he gets the start in year 3 but would be on a short lease? if he still did not improve he's benched and replaced (haven't we seen something like this before?) and likely considered a bust. however, I don't see that hypothetical coming to fruition but rather I see with the added talent on (oline, wr, rb) offense he should be able to make more (successful) plays (throws) and the team, on both sides of the ball, should be competitive in 2019 only to fall short of the post season, finishing at 9-7?

 

this is where year 3 comes in to play. the wizard Beane with yet another (his third draft) off season to work with and a draft strategy loaded up with draft picks acquired from the past trades and a draft year loaded with wr talent (among other good talent off/def) that should give even more weapons to help JA continue on his road to success?

 

year two will be a big challenge for JA, there is no doubt (record data shows most QBs with a below 60% rating fail) that the successful rate for QBs who hold a below 60% passer rating are less likely to succeed compared to those with above 60% rating and who went on to have great careers. I know some use JK as an example of a QB who was below 60% and still had success but this is a different era where passing is a key component in today's nfl. that doesn't mean I don't believe JA could be the exception to the rule, as he very well could and can a long with the other physical attributes he brings to the game, I really believe the kid shows improvement in year two and that will cause the critics to possibly come around some.

 

sure, it's how I see it but it looks better then the dark clouds some are already under when looking at the future of not only JA but the team as a whole. I know age has crept up on me so maybe I don't see as good as I used to but from what I have seen these last couple of years, is a team, a whole different feel of team, one that seems to be very close and all looking and reaching for the same goals that may become something special. that's just me though.

 

one week, 7 days. we have all been waiting and wading through the off season sludge to get to week one.   

 

 

enjoy the ride and GO BILLS!!!

 

Edited September 1, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, NickelCity said:

With our previous young quarterbacks, I saw the validity in a run heavy offense. It didnt always pan out (obviously), but i saw the logic in it.

 

With Allen, I feel like it's apparent that he's a rhythm passer. The third preseason game saw the return of the dreaded run run pass so that we could evaluate the run game, and we saw the offense stall. 

 

For the first time in awhile (probably due to Allen's natural passing ability), I'd like to see a pass heavy offense. I think such an approach will actually help Allen, contrary to the old school point of view that says let a young qb ride the run game. 

 

...I assume most of us want to see this...no?

 

IMO Allen's biggest enemy is "Hero Ball Syndrome", trying too hard to make things happen and carry the team by himself.  The best antidote to hero-ball syndrome is for a young QB to realize the team can get first downs with the run game and he can bide his time and take what the D gives him.

So I would NOT like to see a pass heavy offense.  I would like to see a balanced attack, 50-50 or 55-45 pass/run, something like that.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

can you name some successful QBs that did not make the step up in year two they needed to and didn't see real success, until year three? I mean franchise QBs that may of taken more then two years to develop? it really shouldn't include those sitting behind anyone on the bench.

 

I could go do the research myself and would guess there are a few QBs that did find success in year 3 but I figured since you are so knowledgeable of the game, namely QBs, you would already know of such QBs who had? I mean you seem to already claim JA to be bad and rarely do they go from bad (year one) to great (year two) by year two, or so you don't think it will happen anyway?

 

seriously, name a few that became successful (great) by year 3. can you do that?

 

I'm not who you're talking to, but there is also "devil in the details" there.  You say "successful (great)".  What do you mean by that?  And why omit QB who sat for a few years?

The most famous recent example of what you seek would be Alex Smith.  As a #1 overall pick, he started about half a season his first year.  And he sucked.  He sucked so bad that after 3 years, he appeared on a list of "5 Greatest QB Busts of All Time".  It wasn't until he missed a season (his 4th) on IR that significant improvement became apparent.  He went on to a conference championship and then steady success with his 2nd team before possibly suffering career-ending injury last year.  He certainly became successful.  Whether he became "great" or not, I suppose one could debate - football is a team game, and KC has its questionmarks as an overall team.

 

Carr might be another example of a QB who appeared poised for success after his 3rd season.  He took a step between Year 1 and 2, but a bigger step Year 3.  Then various stuff set him back.  I don't think most people would call him "great", but I personally would be happy for the Bills to have a QB with Carr's 2.25:1 TD/INT ratio, his 4000+ passing yards last year, and his 7.3 YPA.  He took an awful beating though last year, and unless Gruden does something about that he isn't gonna last.

 

More?  How about Russ Wilson.  Owing to a stout D and strong run game, he saw early success but his first 3 years in the league he saw a paltry low 3000s, 200-ish yards per game.  He took a big jump year 4, in completion %, YPG, and TD.

 

Enough yet?  I could be wrong, but I'm gonna guess it turns out there's some parameter for greatness or success you haven't spelled out that's gonna turn out to void the above.

[NickelCity]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

IMO Allen's biggest enemy is "Hero Ball Syndrome", trying too hard to make things happen and carry the team by himself.  The best antidote to hero-ball syndrome is for a young QB to realize the team can get first downs with the run game and he can bide his time and take what the D gives him.

So I would NOT like to see a pass heavy offense.  I would like to see a balanced attack, 50-50 or 55-45 pass/run, something like that.

 

To some extent, I think that Allen tries to force things more when his opportunities are limited. Beane said the same during the preseason game 4 interview, basically talking about his bad interception and how he just really wanted to make something happen because he hadn't had many chances to wing the pig. But I think you have a point about riding the run game *if* it's working.

 

I should also point out that I'm all for whatever gets us wins, period. But for Allen's development, my gut says to let him have a modern amount of pass attempts. He wants to push the ball downfield, not dink and dunk. I think that style regularly requires more than third down opportunities. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

To some extent, I think that Allen tries to force things more when his opportunities are limited. Beane said the same during the preseason game 4 interview, basically talking about his bad interception and how he just really wanted to make something happen because he hadn't had many chances to wing the pig. But I think you have a point about riding the run game *if* it's working.

 

In hindsight, that was an unusual game with a very old-fashioned run-pass ratio.  Something like 66% run, 34% pass early on.

 

I'd love someone better at diagramming plays to confirm, but to me it looked as though early on, they were trying to run the same plays for Gore and Shady, lining them up on alternating series.  In hindsight, it was clearly a "vet RB evaluation" game and if I'd seen it earlier I'd have been "one of those two gonna go"