Where's the Disconnect- Who's Disconnected? Bridging the Divide Between Bills' Fans Expectations & Media Predictions

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

7 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

I like Daniel Jeremiah, he get's biased about certain players sometimes, but overall he is usually pretty honest about stuff. (Bucky Brooks seems terribly biased against the Bills)

 

And surprisingly enough, the GMFB crew seems to do a good job of making honest arguments for why we might be better this year. 

 

Aside from that, there's guys like Schien who just want to throw ***** at the wall, and others who just assume the worst. 

I agree with you on this.  There also seems to be a clear New York City bias.  With much of the news media centralized in NYC, they can't help themselves from having a bit of a homer bias.  They can't believe that their JETS could possibly be worse than the Bills.  Some of the so-called media experts clearly do little real research and are more interested in generating clicks and viewership, than being accurate.  Even though many of us don't like it, it is their business/job.

[oldmanfan]

I don’t put much stock in any media projections, good or bad.  In the day of 24/7 multiple on line sites, blogs, etc., etc. journalists don’t have the time or motivation to do in depth analyses.  And it’s exacerbated when you have a team that hasn’t had a lot of success, even less reason to do actual study. They want to put out things somewhat controversial to get more blog hits etc.  

 

So just take everything with a grain of salt, good or bad.  As an example the bit about Costello saying Oliver struggled?  I watched his series three times and don’t get it.  But I smile.  We’ll know soon enough what the 2019 Bills are.

[TigerJ]

i think there is quite a bit of insight in this thread:  History, journalistic laziness etc.  There is also Brandon Beane's careful cap management, which tends to avoid signing a lot of big name free agents.  One of the bigger reasons may be continued national skepticism about Josh Allen.  His small town, junior college and Wyoming background just doesn't seem like a recipe for success.  

 

It's possible that a successful season in 2019 combined with another strong offseason will begin to chance perceptions, but even then it may be a slow process.  I'm guessing if the Bills are 10-6 in 2019, predictions from the national media for 2020 will be the Bills go 8-8

[ThurmasThoman]

8 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Can anyone who was around during the glory days speak to how the media treated the Bills back in day? 

 

I used to love getting the football preview magazines, like street and smith, and papers, like USA today--and the reason why is because it was the most successful part of the Bills season! LOL! Those publications used to fawn over Buffalo, partly because the AFC was relatively weak, and partly because it was always "this is the year they'll do it."

 

Believe it or not, there isn't a concerted effort by the media to disparage the Bills... they've just been really bad for a really long time. That's why I never got the intense hatred for Sullivan. People would be up in arms because he would dare to suggest that he didn't think, say, Dick Jauron was the answer. Or that Rex's teams wouldnt win 12 games. Or whatever. His predictions were always right, lol, because the Bills always sucked.

 

I think the Bills this year have the potential to be good, but that's because I'm a Bills fan. If you're a journalist covering the league, and not just Buf, then you have to consider the entire AFC. Off the top of my head--teams that are likely to make the tournament ahead of Buf, from a journalists perspective:

New England: this ones obvious, no ones going to pick them to not make it

Pittsburgh: they're in every year, and look like even more of a lock now that AB is going off the deep end--they look shrewd as opposed to cheap now.

Cleveland: I think they'll finish 6-10, personally, but if you want the Bills to get credit for having a rookie trending in the right direction and adding some flashy wideouts, it's pretty disingenuous to not tip your hat to CLE for doing the exact same thing, right?

Kansas City: They should be a lock, although I think Mahomes regresses

San Diego: They should be a lock, although they're a team that seems to vascilate between 12-4 and 7-9, please don't look that up, I'm just trying to convince myself they regress back to the mean this year.

Jacksonville: great run 2 years ago and added a super bowl winning quarterback

 

So that's 6 teams that you could make the argument deserve more respect and a better "predicted record" than Buffalo, then you got the next tier with:

Houston, Tennessee, Baltimore

Teams that have made the playoffs lately, have entrenched QBs and quite frankly deserve more hype than Buf.

 

So that's NINE teams now that should finish better than Buffalo, from a level headed national perspective. When you think the 7th place team in the conference is usually 9-7, and the 9th place team is usually 7-9. and Buffalo finishes outside of that, or right on that cusp, well, that's how they got the 6.5 win projection.

For them to exceed that, they have to leap frog some of those teams. It's not just about what we did, it's about what those other teams already ARE. How does Buf climb past them? Well, it's unknown at this point, but it involves Allen being the answer, and some of those other teams not being what they're cracked up to be. I could see all of the Hou, Ten, Bal tier being worse than Buf, and any of Cle, SD, Jax falling out of the top tier, but that's counting on SIX teams to do poorly and Buf to do great.

Not saying its not going to happen, but easy to see why the line is what is, and the predictions are what they are.

With that being said, I see an 11-5 season and AFC east championship, because I think you can't beat preparedness and coaching, and eventually the worm turns for these guys, so if not now with Allen, I can't stomach the thought of waiting for the next QB to save us.

[row_33]

8 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Can anyone who was around during the glory days speak to how the media treated the Bills back in day? 

 

The AFC was already a total joke by this point, on the path to 12 or 13 straight SB losses, and the bookend wins by the AFC were upsets.

 

i recall the Bills getting decent coverage the first 2 SB years. The third year nobody outside of Bills fans wanted the team to go back to the SB because it was a predictable slaughter coming up.

 

 

[billsbackto81]

9 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

First off, for Colin Cowherd to say we are the least talented football team in the league is pure ignorance..

Miami

Giants

Broncos

Bucs

Redskins

Arizona

Bengals

Lions 

 

Talent wise we are better than. These are we must beat if we expected to compete for a playoff spot.

 

Titans

Texans

Jags

Browns

Jets

Ravens

 

Teams I feel we are just as good as. Games I think would be competitive for both sides.

 

[Phil The Thrill]

9 hours ago, Gugny said:

The Bills have sucked for almost 20 straight years.

 

Everyone (outside of some Bills fans) knows that the playoff appearance was a fluke.

 

Since 2000, the Bills have averaged 6.7 wins/season.

 

That's what the media sees.

 

True except there really hasn’t been much movement in Vegas since the initial W-L projections....except Buffalo.  Out of all the teams, their W projections have increased.  It makes you feel that the team is trending in the right direction

[SoTier]

14 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

There's likely a little laziness in the media.  Do you truthfully think that most who don't follow the Bills took the time to break down our record with and without Allen last year- and then factored that in (since it may matter)?  Do you really think the most virulent Josh Allen detractor realizes the Bills played more or less .500 ball in games he started?  He didn't play well but we absolutely played worse without him. 

 

I'm not sure if I'm addressing someone who can speak to Allen without a jaundiced outlook, though.  Not trying to cause any offense but I believe I read that you've written that given what we traded to move up for Allen (Glenn, pick #21, & two 2nd's to move into #7 to use on Allen) that it would amount to massive overpayment unless- and only unless- he becomes a Hall of Famer, never mind that there are many very good QB's who won't end up in Canton.  Allen isn't Tony Romo but that was a hyperbolic statement, at least in my estimation.

 

I can't say definitively that the Bills will be better, let alone demonstrably, better.  But I do know that Buffalo won six games- and half of Allen's starts- with less talent along both the offensive lines and at WR than they have now.  John Brown & Cole Beasley as your top-two wideouts is FAR from anything desirable but at least they can separate and who is debating they're not better than Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones?  It's also hard for us to be any less productive & proficient rushing the ball, save for Allen's stats.  I also know the schedule appears (critical word) to have about the same level of difficulty. And that defensively we really only lost a 34-year old Kyle Williams and replaced him with a player with arguably more realistic upside than anyone on this roster.

 

We may win six games- or less, as many believe- once again.  But it isn't delusional to see reasons why that isn't the likely outcome.

 

I stand by my view that unless Allen has a successful career that has pundits asking towards the end of it,  "Should Josh Allen be in the HOF?", then the Bills probably overpaid for him.  I would think that of any QB that any team paid that much in  talent and draft potential to acquire, however, so it's not a personal thing against Allen. 

 

I actually like Allen, but I'm skeptical of his chances for success.  He has to improve significantly just to become a competent NFL QB, but I think that his biggest handicap may be the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills handling of Allen last season was either incompetent or callously $$ motivated.  When you -- ie, an NFL football team -- use a first round pick on a blue-chip QB prospect you expect to be the face of your franchise, why don't you hire a real QB coach to help him -- especially when he's raw and in desperate need of high caliber coaching????   David Culley may very well be a fine offensive assistant, but before he came to the Bills, he last coached QBs thirty years ago at a small Louisiana college.  Why didn't the Bills bring in an assistant QB coach just for Allen?   They could have given Culley another title or the new QB coach a different title if that was an issue.   I'm not going to restate my views on how the Bills mishandled the other QBs -- Peterman, McCarron, Anderson, and Barkley.  Suffice to say, that was more evidence of lack of support for Allen.

 

Baker Mayfield was offensive ROY and threw 27 TDs, and the Browns traded for OBJ.  The Jets signed Le'veon Bell to bolster the short-passing and running games for Sam Darnold.  The Ravens are creating an entire offense to maximize Lamar Jackson's talents.   The Bills' support for Allen pales compared to what these other AFC teams have done for their 2018 first round QBs. 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

22 hours ago, Logic said:

I see two things at play:

First, the media always bases its predictions off of last season's results. 

Second, the Bills finished 6-10 last year 

I think it's been shown that most "expert" predictions come out substantially WORSE overall than simply doing this:

- take last year's record

- regress it to the mean (8-8 is average by definition) 50%

- RESULT: Bills go 7-9.

The next level is to look at things like point differential and record in close games. Teams that wind up with records better than their point differential would suggest (the old Pythagorean thing) tend to do worse the following year, and vice versa. Record in close games (say, decided by 3 points or less) tends to be at least as much luck as talent/skill/experience. So if you do way better than expected in close games, you'll tend to do worse next year, and vice versa.

Until some prognosticator proves to me that he/she has a better track record overall than simply applying these 3 formulas, I'll be skeptical. So maybe you base your predictions on this, then add a win or so for an obvious upgrade/downgrade (example: your QB is hurt and expected to miss the season; you sign a true game changer like Peyton Manning, but how often does that happen?). Everything else is just guesswork, but I guess people are more likely to click on articles like "The 5 best and 5 worst teams in the NFL" instead of "Bills record likely to improve slightly, and with some lucky bounces may make the playoffs."

[DCofNC]

20 hours ago, MJS said:

I disagree that they've proven "nothing". They've proven that they can build an elite defense, especially an elite defensive secondary. Evidence points to them drafting well in this regime as well. And in the first year of this regime they broke a 17 season playoff drought. That's proven success right there which people can (and do) interpret different ways. But the results speak for themselves. On offense, certainly there is everything to prove.

 

But yes, I agree that it would be nice to move away from "this team has potential" to "this team has proven they can win". All we can do is wait and see.

I have to disagree on the "elite" defense.  They are fine, but they got SHREDDED in multiple games last year.  Make all the excuses we want about them having to play too many minutes (cough no depth cough) or whatever we want to hear, but shutting down rookie QBs and the Dolphins isn't elite.  They got it handed to them in many games, you NEVER saw that with Baltimore, who is the truly last Elite D I recall.

 

The playoff appearance was a complete fluke. Sorry, but 9 wins and Andy Dalton saving you doesn't make you a real team.

 

The drafting does look pretty good, but there are a lot of head scratchers in there, especially from the outside looking in.  For the average observer, the Bills traded the Maholmes pick and didn't get Watson either, then gave up a boat load to come up for the most polorizing prospect in recent history in Allen, who really didn't do anything different than what he did in college so far.  So they just look really dumb, regardless of new regime etc.  Also, why did they "waste" a pick on a RB this year with Shady, Gore, Yeldon on board?  Looks silly, in all reality, I still dont like that pick, hoping im wrong.  They then gave up a bunch to come back up for Knox, who I like, but the pundits say they over paid a lot to get there, which is true.

Its a wait and see game here..

 

So overall, I'd say nothing has been proven and especially in the eyes of the media who saw McVay come in and take a dumpster fire and turn them in to SB contenders in a year.  That makes this whole "process" look pretty weak.   What's never mentioned is the Rams had built a solid team and McVay got the benefit of it, but shhhh, that's not fun to talk about.

[SCBills]

For me, I get it.. but also feel like this team is way more talented/deep than most who don't follow Buffalo give them credit for. 

 

What I don't like is when people base their assessment of the Bills off the QB, but clearly don't watch our QB.  It's not wrong to base a team's success off QB play, as that is the most important indicator.  What is wrong, is to base your opinion of a team, off your opinion of their second year QB, that you clearly just looked at the box scores of and declare as too "inaccurate" to be successful.

[row_33]

13 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

 

True except there really hasn’t been much movement in Vegas since the initial W-L projections....except Buffalo.  Out of all the teams, their W projections have increased.  It makes you feel that the team is trending in the right direction

 

Trending on the field is all that matters 

 

 

[US Egg]

Amazing (sad) how many let the media get into their head

[section122]

23 hours ago, The Plastic Cup said:

 

Is there anyone who was legitimately stiffed from the top 100 list?  White and Hughes are borderline cases but no one else warrants consideration.

 

 

I would say Micah Hyde, Tre White, and maybe even Poyer have probably the best argument of everyone on the team to be in the top 100.  Other than that nobody can really have a beef.  To me this is a star driven league so it is a bit concerning that we are lacking in the "game changer" category.  I do believe Josh Allen could elevate himself into that category as well as Ed Oliver and Edmunds.  All of it is predicated on players taking that next step.  As fans we believe it will happen.  The media not so much.

 

 

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

Baker Mayfield was offensive ROY and threw 27 TDs, and the Browns traded for OBJ.  The Jets signed Le'veon Bell to bolster the short-passing and running games for Sam Darnold.  The Ravens are creating an entire offense to maximize Lamar Jackson's talents.   The Bills' support for Allen pales compared to what these other AFC teams have done for their 2018 first round QBs. 

 

Not just these teams.  Chiefs went out and got Watkins (say what you will but they invested in skill positions),  Rams went out and got Goff Watkins, then Cooks to add to a revamped o-line, Eagles went out and got Alshon Jeffrey and a 1st round pick WR (agholor - again at least admire the attempt).

 

I do believe that the Bills plan on drafting WR in the first round next year but that is year 3.  The other teams listed did much more to help their young QBs have a supporting cast that could help carry the load.  I do think that is why the Bills were in on Antonio Brown though it just didn't work out.

 

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

1. I have to disagree on the "elite" defense.  They are fine, but they got SHREDDED in multiple games last year.  

 

2. The playoff appearance was a complete fluke. Sorry, but 9 wins and Andy Dalton saving you doesn't make you a real team.

 

3. then gave up a boat load to come up for the most polorizing prospect in recent history in Allen, who really didn't do anything different than what he did in college so far.  So they just look really dumb, regardless of new regime etc. 

 

4.Also, why did they "waste" a pick on a RB this year with Shady, Gore, Yeldon on board?  Looks silly, in all reality, I still dont like that pick, hoping im wrong. 

 

5. They then gave up a bunch to come back up for Knox, who I like, but the pundits say they over paid a lot to get there, which is true.

 

 

A lot to chew on so I numbered to help my responses - sorry for cutting up your post.

 

1.  They did get shredded and it is concerning that it seems to happen to them from time to time (happened the year before as well).  However they got shredded by Baltimore, Chicago, and Indy.  Baltimore was aided by Nathan Peterman and Indy/Chicago were both top 10 offenses in ppg.  3 games is too many to be considered elite so they definitely have something to improve/correct as you state.  I hate using yards to measure defenses.  PPG should be the measuring stick and for that the Bills finished 18th.  That needs to improve if the Bills record is going to improve.

 

2.  Gotta disagree with you here.  9 wins is not a fluke to make the playoffs.  2 9-7 teams from the AFC made it that year.  If that Bengals play happens week 5 nobody remembers or calls that playoff season a fluke.  Talent wise?  certainly a fluke but not record wise.  You have to go back to 2012 to find a year that didn't have a team at 9-7 qualify.  That includes multiple teams as division winners at 9-7 (or 7-8-1 but that was certainly a fluke).

 

3.  He may have been polarizing for fans but not for Front offices.  Even the day of the draft there was speculation HE would be the #1 pick instead of Mayfield.  Arizona was also trying to trade up for him as well.  I don't think Allen was making it out of the top 10 if the Bills weren't there to grab him. 

 

4. I also don't think drafting a rb when your 2 lead guys are over 30 is a waste.  It seems that is more you don't like the player so you think it is a waste.  The 3rd round is a great place to draft a rb.  Alvin Kamara, David Johsnon, Kareem Hunt, DeMarco Murray, and James Conner among others have been 3rd round rbs that have had a ton of success in the league. 

 

5.  Lastly, they gave up 2 4th round picks to move into the 3rd round to draft Knox.  I have not seen 1 pundit say that was an overpay but I may be wrong.  Where I don't think I am wrong is saying trading 2 4th round picks for a 3rd is definitely NOT giving up a ton.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

For me, I get it.. but also feel like this team is way more talented/deep than most who don't follow Buffalo give them credit for. 

 

What I don't like is when people base their assessment of the Bills off the QB, but clearly don't watch our QB.  It's not wrong to base a team's success off QB play, as that is the most important indicator.  What is wrong, is to base your opinion of a team, off your opinion of their second year QB, that you clearly just looked at the box scores of and declare as too "inaccurate" to be successful.

 

This team is not that talented at all, so their depth isn't impressive either.  Almost all of the talent on the Bills today is concentrated in young guys, only one of whom has "made his bones" in the NFL to this point, Tre White.  In this unproven group is Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver and Ford.  That Zay Jones is a starting WR underscores the lack of talent at the receiver position, both wideouts and tight ends.   On many playoff caliber teams, most of these guys -- all of whom started/will start as rookies -- would have started as part-timers, and some might still be rotational players. 

 

Hyde, Poyer, and Hughes are solid, but the rest of the veterans are old or haven't demonstrated that they have regained their pre-injury form.    The only other established veterans are this year's FA crop.  Brown and Beasley are decent wide receivers but Pro Bowlers they're not.  Except for Morse, none of the OLers were bonafide starters.  They were backups who landed starting roles when the regular starters got hurt.  As for Morse, he managed one practice in pads and has been in concussion protocol since, so his availability through the season is certainly much more dicey than if he'd never had a concussion.  Now, the OL may turn out to be decent without Morse, and maybe even good with him, but nobody knows. 

 

As for Allen, he looked pretty good in his first outing in the first game.  There's reason to hope, but he still has lots and lots of room for improvement.  Certainly the Bills offense didn't look as good as either the Jets or the Ravens offenses looked under Darnold and Jackson.  That may have less to do with Allen than with the players around him, but media folks aren't looking at how Allen played last year so much as they're looking at how he plays compared to the other NFL QBs, especially the QBs in his draft class.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

This team is not that talented at all, so their depth isn't impressive either.  Almost all of the talent on the Bills today is concentrated in young guys, only one of whom has "made his bones" in the NFL to this point, Tre White.  In this unproven group is Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver and Ford.  That Zay Jones is a starting WR underscores the lack of talent at the receiver position, both wideouts and tight ends.   On many playoff caliber teams, most of these guys -- all of whom started/will start as rookies -- would have started as part-timers, and some might still be rotational players. 

 

Hyde, Poyer, and Hughes are solid, but the rest of the veterans are old or haven't demonstrated that they have regained their pre-injury form.    The only other established veterans are this year's FA crop.  Brown and Beasley are decent wide receivers but Pro Bowlers they're not.  Except for Morse, none of the OLers were bonafide starters.  They were backups who landed starting roles when the regular starters got hurt.  As for Morse, he managed one practice in pads and has been in concussion protocol since, so his availability through the season is certainly much more dicey than if he'd never had a concussion.  Now, the OL may turn out to be decent without Morse, and maybe even good with him, but nobody knows. 

 

As for Allen, he looked pretty good in his first outing in the first game.  There's reason to hope, but he still has lots and lots of room for improvement.  Certainly the Bills offense didn't look as good as either the Jets or the Ravens offenses looked under Darnold and Jackson.  That may have less to do with Allen than with the players around him, but media folks aren't looking at how Allen played last year so much as they're looking at how he plays compared to the other NFL QBs, especially the QBs in his draft class.

 

Zay Jones is our #3 WR, at best.   Nobody is saying we have a #1 WR, but we have a deep group of 2/3 guys.

 

OL... Just stop.  Dawkins was a high pick who shows promise, Ford is a high pick, Nsehke/Spain are solid vets, Morse is above average, Feliciano and Long provide rotational depth and flexibility.  Offensive Line is a problem for most teams.   I think we're ok here.

 

On Defense, where do I start... You know what, not even addressing it, because you seem to discount youth, and most of our talent is young so I guess you'll have to wait and see if your doom and gloom "this team is not talented AT ALL" viewpoint holds any water.

Edited August 15, 2019 by SCBills

[DCofNC]

3 hours ago, section122 said:

 

I would say Micah Hyde, Tre White, and maybe even Poyer have probably the best argument of everyone on the team to be in the top 100.  Other than that nobody can really have a beef.  To me this is a star driven league so it is a bit concerning that we are lacking in the "game changer" category.  I do believe Josh Allen could elevate himself into that category as well as Ed Oliver and Edmunds.  All of it is predicated on players taking that next step.  As fans we believe it will happen.  The media not so much.

 

 

 

Not just these teams.  Chiefs went out and got Watkins (say what you will but they invested in skill positions),  Rams went out and got Goff Watkins, then Cooks to add to a revamped o-line, Eagles went out and got Alshon Jeffrey and a 1st round pick WR (agholor - again at least admire the attempt).

 

I do believe that the Bills plan on drafting WR in the first round next year but that is year 3.  The other teams listed did much more to help their young QBs have a supporting cast that could help carry the load.  I do think that is why the Bills were in on Antonio Brown though it just didn't work out.

 

 

A lot to chew on so I numbered to help my responses - sorry for cutting up your post.

 

1.  They did get shredded and it is concerning that it seems to happen to them from time to time (happened the year before as well).  However they got shredded by Baltimore, Chicago, and Indy.  Baltimore was aided by Nathan Peterman and Indy/Chicago were both top 10 offenses in ppg.  3 games is too many to be considered elite so they definitely have something to improve/correct as you state.  I hate using yards to measure defenses.  PPG should be the measuring stick and for that the Bills finished 18th.  That needs to improve if the Bills record is going to improve.

 

2.  Gotta disagree with you here.  9 wins is not a fluke to make the playoffs.  2 9-7 teams from the AFC made it that year.  If that Bengals play happens week 5 nobody remembers or calls that playoff season a fluke.  Talent wise?  certainly a fluke but not record wise.  You have to go back to 2012 to find a year that didn't have a team at 9-7 qualify.  That includes multiple teams as division winners at 9-7 (or 7-8-1 but that was certainly a fluke).

 

3.  He may have been polarizing for fans but not for Front offices.  Even the day of the draft there was speculation HE would be the #1 pick instead of Mayfield.  Arizona was also trying to trade up for him as well.  I don't think Allen was making it out of the top 10 if the Bills weren't there to grab him. 

 

4. I also don't think drafting a rb when your 2 lead guys are over 30 is a waste.  It seems that is more you don't like the player so you think it is a waste.  The 3rd round is a great place to draft a rb.  Alvin Kamara, David Johsnon, Kareem Hunt, DeMarco Murray, and James Conner among others have been 3rd round rbs that have had a ton of success in the league. 

 

5.  Lastly, they gave up 2 4th round picks to move into the 3rd round to draft Knox.  I have not seen 1 pundit say that was an overpay but I may be wrong.  Where I don't think I am wrong is saying trading 2 4th round picks for a 3rd is definitely NOT giving up a ton.

I'm actually not at all in disagreement with what you are saying, to stay organized, I'll tackle the numbers.

 

1) The defense has been shredded too much, gotta stop that to be elite, enough said.

 

2) I agree 9 wins was nice, but it was an overachievment and ultimately seemed more like a fluke to me than a deserving year of playoffs.

 

From here down, please understand, I'm answering based on the OP, what's the discourse.

 

3) The media/national audience sees no swing and a miss in the draft before on a QB amd now taking a boom or bust guy, giving up a TON to do so.  Easy to see why it's  not a good look.

 

4) Why pay Shady so much and sign Gore and Yeldon prior to the draft, only to spend a high pick on a RB who is "too small and too slow" for the NFL.  The gyys you named in your post, I would argue all have better measurables and therefore projections in the NFL.

 

5) If you are looking at draft value charts, they gave up far more value than they got back.. Nothing more, nothing less to this point.  

 

So in context of why does nobody else see the Bills as a decent team, I think it's relatively easy to see it.  As Bills fans we see it in Rose colored glasses and assume the best, the rest of the world sees the surface facts.  The Bills have sucked for 20 years and their decisions look slightly suspect.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

This team is not that talented at all, so their depth isn't impressive either.  Almost all of the talent on the Bills today is concentrated in young guys, only one of whom has "made his bones" in the NFL to this point, Tre White.  In this unproven group is Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver and Ford.  That Zay Jones is a starting WR underscores the lack of talent at the receiver position, both wideouts and tight ends.   On many playoff caliber teams, most of these guys -- all of whom started/will start as rookies -- would have started as part-timers, and some might still be rotational players. 

 

Hyde, Poyer, and Hughes are solid, but the rest of the veterans are old or haven't demonstrated that they have regained their pre-injury form.    The only other established veterans are this year's FA crop.  Brown and Beasley are decent wide receivers but Pro Bowlers they're not.  Except for Morse, none of the OLers were bonafide starters.  They were backups who landed starting roles when the regular starters got hurt.  As for Morse, he managed one practice in pads and has been in concussion protocol since, so his availability through the season is certainly much more dicey than if he'd never had a concussion.  Now, the OL may turn out to be decent without Morse, and maybe even good with him, but nobody knows. 

 

As for Allen, he looked pretty good in his first outing in the first game.  There's reason to hope, but he still has lots and lots of room for improvement.  Certainly the Bills offense didn't look as good as either the Jets or the Ravens offenses looked under Darnold and Jackson.  That may have less to do with Allen than with the players around him, but media folks aren't looking at how Allen played last year so much as they're looking at how he plays compared to the other NFL QBs, especially the QBs in his draft class.

 

Some of this is dumb, like your opinion of Zay Jones, who is an average #2 and a solid #3. He happens to be our #3, so I am cool with it.

 

However, a lot of this is fair. We are assuming our young guys are going to take a jump. If they do, we are going to be reallllllly good. If they do not, we all probably be the same team next year.  Allen in particular needs to make a jump for this team to be good.   

[downunderbill]

On 8/15/2019 at 1:47 AM, Gugny said:

The Bills have sucked for almost 20 straight years.

 

Everyone (outside of some Bills fans) knows that the playoff appearance was a fluke.

 

Since 2000, the Bills have averaged 6.7 wins/season.

 

That's what the media sees.

 

But if the other 2 teams were so much more deserving of a playoff berth, they would have win 10 games not 9.

[The Frankish Reich]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

This team is not that talented at all, so their depth isn't impressive either.  Almost all of the talent on the Bills today is concentrated in young guys, only one of whom has "made his bones" in the NFL to this point, Tre White.  In this unproven group is Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver and Ford.  That Zay Jones is a starting WR underscores the lack of talent at the receiver position, both wideouts and tight ends.   On many playoff caliber teams, most of these guys -- all of whom started/will start as rookies -- would have started as part-timers, and some might still be rotational players. 

 

Hyde, Poyer, and Hughes are solid, but the rest of the veterans are old or haven't demonstrated that they have regained their pre-injury form.    The only other established veterans are this year's FA crop.  Brown and Beasley are decent wide receivers but Pro Bowlers they're not.  Except for Morse, none of the OLers were bonafide starters.  They were backups who landed starting roles when the regular starters got hurt.  As for Morse, he managed one practice in pads and has been in concussion protocol since, so his availability through the season is certainly much more dicey than if he'd never had a concussion.  Now, the OL may turn out to be decent without Morse, and maybe even good with him, but nobody knows. 

 

As for Allen, he looked pretty good in his first outing in the first game.  There's reason to hope, but he still has lots and lots of room for improvement.  Certainly the Bills offense didn't look as good as either the Jets or the Ravens offenses looked under Darnold and Jackson.  That may have less to do with Allen than with the players around him, but media folks aren't looking at how Allen played last year so much as they're looking at how he plays compared to the other NFL QBs, especially the QBs in his draft class.

With respect to Morse: the last couple guys we signed with concussion issues turned out fine, didn’t they, Mr Kolb and Mr Harvin?

Seriously, though: this is a huge issue with Centers. The NFL needs to look at ways to protect them from such repetitive blows to the head. Maybe requiring defenses to line up a yard off the center so that he can at least get his head up and block like he’s been taught to do? Before everyone jumps on me with the old “manly men lead with their helmets” arguments, just remember Kent Hull and Mike Webster. This is an awful scar on the game and it needs to be fixed. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

On 8/14/2019 at 10:47 AM, RoyBatty is alive said:

First off, for Colin Cowherd to say we are the least talented football team in the league is pure ignorance.

 

We have essentially a brand new O Line + coach. 85% new WRs and TEs, half new RBs and a second year QB that is obviously physically talented but has always struggled with his accuracy.  Those are a lot of huge question marks.  How long does it take to get the O Line to work as a unit?  Only way to tell is to see the games and pray our new O Line coach knows hat he is doing.   Also I thin we have some serious issues with our run defense emerging.

 

So yes I think it is totally understandable for the media to be wildly split on the Bills this year, from Colin Cowherd to Adam Schein saying we are his Cinderella team to Micheal Robinson saying we will win the AFCE.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

On 8/15/2019 at 1:46 PM, SoTier said:

 

This team is not that talented at all, so their depth isn't impressive either.  Almost all of the talent on the Bills today is concentrated in young guys, only one of whom has "made his bones" in the NFL to this point, Tre White.  In this unproven group is Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver and Ford.  That Zay Jones is a starting WR underscores the lack of talent at the receiver position, both wideouts and tight ends.   On many playoff caliber teams, most of these guys -- all of whom started/will start as rookies -- would have started as part-timers, and some might still be rotational players. 

 

Hyde, Poyer, and Hughes are solid, but the rest of the veterans are old or haven't demonstrated that they have regained their pre-injury form.    The only other established veterans are this year's FA crop.  Brown and Beasley are decent wide receivers but Pro Bowlers they're not.  Except for Morse, none of the OLers were bonafide starters.  They were backups who landed starting roles when the regular starters got hurt.  As for Morse, he managed one practice in pads and has been in concussion protocol since, so his availability through the season is certainly much more dicey than if he'd never had a concussion.  Now, the OL may turn out to be decent without Morse, and maybe even good with him, but nobody knows. 

 

As for Allen, he looked pretty good in his first outing in the first game.  There's reason to hope, but he still has lots and lots of room for improvement.  Certainly the Bills offense didn't look as good as either the Jets or the Ravens offenses looked under Darnold and Jackson.  That may have less to do with Allen than with the players around him, but media folks aren't looking at how Allen played last year so much as they're looking at how he plays compared to the other NFL QBs, especially the QBs in his draft class.

 

Snap counts:

Zay Jones - 42%

Cole Beasley - 70%

John Brown 86%

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Keep in mind the word fan is short for fanatic.  Anyone who takes the time to post on message boards is somewhat taking things to extremes.  How many times does someone get arrested for something, you read about all the evidence, but yet his family says he's innocent.  As fans we see things with rose colored glasses and hope.

 

Having said that do agree that many of the national media don't see enough to get a clear picture.  This past week, all the write ups about how bad Allen was 4 turnovers, but as some articles did point out, none were the result of poor decision be him and more just dumb luck.  The local beat writers do see the team on a regular basis and are certainly more objective than a fan will be.

[plenzmd1]

Did not read this whole thread, but think it is like Jeremy White always says

 

teams are generally good one year before most "expect" them to be good. 

[jletha]

21 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Did not read this whole thread, but think it is like Jeremy White always says

 

teams are generally good one year before most "expect" them to be good. 

That I agree with but it is weird that so many people dont take an objective look at things. Putting the Jets ahead of us is a just low-hanging fruit take. Both teams with 2nd year QBs, we won more games than them, we upgraded O-line with better players than them, our defense was one of the top in the league and retained starters, we are in year 3 with of a HC and year two of OC. They had a new HC, worse record the year before, worse defense, all new system, etc. It just seemed unanimous that the Jets were going to be better without really any objective justification.

 

Im so glad we beat them in NJ to boot.

[Alphadawg7]

It’s simple really:  

 

Fans follow this team closely through all offseason, practices, preseason, etc.  

 

Media get crib notes, probably less than crib notes really.  They only go deeper on the more relevant teams, whether that be big name acquisitions (Browns, Raiders, etc), most popular teams nationally, proven beat teams the previous year, storied franchises, etc.  

 

Buffalo has been none of those things since the Kelly era.  Outside of local reporters, they aren’t going to expend as much energy on a team that’s isn’t going to be talked about as much.  

 

So they rely heavily on previous years performance and common bias until it’s proven different on the field.  Bills keep winning and they will get media attention and respect.

Edited September 13, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[rayray808]

there is Josh Allen reviews based on just looking at the stat line vs Josh Allen reviews where you actually watched the entire game

 

that sums it up for me regarding how people view our team

 

for example:

 

WEEK ONE: Bills barely beat the Jets by 1 and Josh Allen had four turn overs in the first half. YIKES. Dumpster fire in the AFC East.

 

vs

 

WEEK ONE: Bills come back from a 16-0 deficit. Despite fluke turnovers in the first half, Josh Allen has an electric 4th quarter and throws game winning TD. Are the Bills catching up to the Pats this year?

[Nextmanup]

I see us as an 8-8 team this year too, but I have no idea why people would be happy with that.  

 

That's a very typical season for the Bills and a typical season for most of the league.  

 

After 3 years of completely gutting the organization and making it over in the McBeane mold, I expect more.

 

[Mrbojanglezs]

No star players. I think that has a big factor in national perception 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Colon Cowturd.   ?

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 8/14/2019 at 10:43 AM, Logic said:

I see two things at play:

First, the media always bases its predictions off of last season's results. (.....)

 

What you wrote as a whole is a good post, but in terms of explaining the disconnect, really you could stop right there.

 

The media bases predictions and expectations for next NFL season off last season's results until proven otherwise.

[Low Positive]

Cowherd was the #1 cheerleader for Darnold in the lead-up to the 2018 draft. He said that Darnold was the only one of the group ready to play right away and that Mayfield is too small and cocky and Josh Allen was too inaccurate to play in the NFL. I don't remember his takes on Rosen, but he definitely had them all behind Darnold. He has a lot of professional capital invested in his being the best QB of that group, and his assessments of the others, especially Mayfield, have to be seen in that light. In fact, all of the sports talkers made hot takes about those QBs and they try to shift the narrative to those takes. Our problem is that none of the daily bloviators were high on Josh Allen. But the great thing is that the players themselves have the power to set the ultimate narrative by playing well. But in order to shut them up his stat line has to be better for a few weeks in a row. Over 300 yards, with at least 2 TDs and no INTs this week and next week would do the trick. 

[dubs]

How many thread are we going to have on the media’s perception of the Bills??  It does not matter at all. It doesn’t contribute to any wins or losses!  All we have to do is watch and wait and see how this season plays out. 

 

Also: if it is such an important topic to the board, can we create one monster thread called: Media and the Bills or something and put all these in that one?

 

 

Edited September 13, 2019 by dubs

[ddaryl]

I not only expect playoffs this year. I'm expecting to be in the conversation for a Superbowl appearance this year. Anything less is unacceptable.. This team is good enough to make that kind of noise.

 

As for media disconnect. They can only go by past performances, and the Bills have so many new faces nobody can really tell where they are going to go. Also IMO the sexy teams, The teams with high FA payrolls don't translate into SB winners very often. There seems to be a handful of teams that buck trends and dictate the next era of NFL football. The Bills are that team

 

So I pay less that 0 attention to media perception, and judge our team based upon 45 years of being a fan...  This team is built radically different then most of the NFL teams in regards to the FA"s they choose, the way they handle their cap and their out standing drafting in the face of so many nay sayers.

 

So use your own eyes. I know the Bills had 4 turnovers against the Jets, but they were almost all correctable and or were just bad bounces. Josh ain't going to fumble that often. Beasley will not have many passes bounce off his thigh pads, and tipped balls at the OL can be avoided.. Josh could learn to use that pump fake here. BUT even in the face of 4 turnovers one thing stood out, the Bills were moving the football well

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

Quote

Bottom line is that Buffalo, as a franchise, has simply never been that good outside of the glory years (all four of 'em, during which we won zero Super Bowls).

 

Overall I have no quarrel with your logic, but speaking as someone born the same year as the Bills franchise and who grew up and toddled around the living room watching the Bills, this isn't quite right.

 

The Bills over most of their 59 year history have been cyclically good and bad, like most teams. 

AFL championship in '64 and '65, lost the conf in '66. 

Winning team '73-'75.

Playoffs '80-'81

Winning team '88-'93, including the 4 SB appearances

Playoffs '95-95, 98-99

 

It's really the stretch from 2000 to the present where the Bills have been, not consistently bad, but mired in mediocrity.  Not good enough to win, but not bad enough to lose and draft high for a few years, and suffering from a continuous carousel of coaching change and either absence, unqualified, or hampered GMs.  An overall rudderless ship, adrift in the NFL ocean.

8 HC in 17 years at the point where McDermott was hired pretty much says it all during a period where the most successful NFL franchises have had 1 or 2 coaches.

 

[ngbills]

Fans always see their team differently. They know the ins and outs of every player. They listen to the reports of how great Duke Williams looks in practice. They listen to the coach talk about changing culture and winning. Fans sometimes overlook that every other team is doing the exact same thing. The national media does tune that out for the most part. That can lead to them missing the boat sometimes. But also they dont tend to over hype the stories local fans latch onto.

[Low Positive]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Overall I have no quarrel with your logic, but speaking as someone born the same year as the Bills franchise and who grew up and toddled around the living room watching the Bills, this isn't quite right.

 

The Bills over most of their 59 year history have been cyclically good and bad, like most teams. 

AFL championship in '64 and '65, lost the conf in '66. 

Winning team '73-'75.

Playoffs '80-'81

Winning team '88-'93, including the 4 SB appearances

Playoffs '95-95, 98-99

 

It's really the stretch from 2000 to the present where the Bills have been, not consistently bad, but mired in mediocrity.  Not good enough to win, but not bad enough to lose and draft high for a few years, and suffering from a continuous carousel of coaching change and either absence, unqualified, or hampered GMs.  An overall rudderless ship, adrift in the NFL ocean.

8 HC in 17 years at the point where McDermott was hired pretty much says it all during a period where the most successful NFL franchises have had 1 or 2 coaches.

 

Exactly. The average number of wins during the 16 year drought was not 4 or 5, but 7. So, not good enough to win but not bad enough to draft highly and unfortunately our highest draft picks came during years with less than stellar drafts. 

[Shaw66]

There is a simple dynamic at work that causes the disconnect between the media coverage generally and fan perception.   Actually, two dynamics.

 

One, of course, is the fans are homers and as a general rule think the team is better than it actually is.   That's a given, and it's always at work.

 

The other is this:  (I know there are journalists who actually form independent judgments and state what they believe, but they're in the minority.  I'm not talking about them.)   Most journalists are in a business.   The business is producing content.   They succeed in their job if they produce content that people accept, because that keeps people coming back to hear what that journalist has to say.   If you're a journalist and you write or say things that people generally don't believe, then people stop listening to you.  

 

The general football public thinks the Bills are a bad team.  They think that because the four Super Bowls were followed by what they believe was consistent failure, and it pretty much was.   The running jokes about Buffalo and the Bills reinforce that belief.    Okay, if I'm a journalist writing for a national audience, and I write the same old crap, and simply update it with Allen is not accurate, there were doubts about him coming out college, Bills were 6-10 last year, etc., my audience generally believes it.  It all sounds right to them, so they think I'm a smart guy, and they move on to another article. 

 

However, if I write something like I did in May, saying the Bills are the next great franchise in the NFL, people think "WTF is this guy talking about?"   They might read what I say, but most people simply aren't going to believe it because, well, it hasn't been true for 20 years, so why would be true now.  And they're going to think I'm an idiot.  If they think I'm an idiot, they aren't going to listen to me next time.   Now, I don't really care what people think, so I write what I want.  But if I earn my living writing this stuff, I care A LOT about what people think.   

 

Five years from now, when the Bills are the next great franchise, nobody will remember that I said what I said and that others didn't.   So there's no upside for journalists to stick their nexks out saying the Bills are going to be great.   All that will happen is that fans will think they're stupid.  

 

It's especially true for a small market team.   There's some upside in predicting the Giants or the Bears or the Rams are going to be good, because there's a big market there that wants to hear that.   No national journalist really cares all that much how much of the Buffalo market he's capturing.  

[Seven-N-Nine]

Bills fans have been the ones proven wrong, for the last couple decades. Allen pretty much looks the same as last year so far, a mixed bag. Mixed bags are inconsistent winners. The Vegas win total  line is probably right.

 

Only way this changes is if Allen is no longer a mixed bag.