Where's the Disconnect- Who's Disconnected? Bridging the Divide Between Bills' Fans Expectations & Media Predictions

[msw2112]

Like most of us, I see the moves that the Bills have made and believe they are a much improved team over last year and that their record will show it.  But, to be honest, I really don't know what other teams have done in the offseason.  So maybe the Bills have gotten better, but perhaps some other teams have gotten better too. 

 

I do agree that some of the anti-Bills bias is lazy journalism.  The Bills biggest signing was a center and not a well-known name.  How many people really know who Mitch Morse is?  How many of us knew who he was prior to the Bills pursuit of a FA center this offseason?  We signed a lot of quality players, but really not a lot of big or "sexy" names like OBJ or LaVeon Bell.  The poorly or marginally informed "journalist" isn't going to see anything that the Bills did as cause for an upward trajectory.  They don't know much about the players we have signed and they probably have not kept close tabs on Josh Allen's progress from year 1 to year 2.  So, to them, it's more of the same.

[4_kidd_4]

Comeon september.....

[MJS]

Vegas does not make win predictions based on who they think will win and who will lose. They make predictions based on how people will place bets. The nation does not expect much of the Bills, so their over/under reflects that.

 

And, just like fans, media, and everyone else in between, Vegas is often wrong. Go look at their preseason over/under for the Bills in 2017, or for countless other teams that surprisingly do well or surprisingly flop.

 

Last year the Bears had an over/under of 7 and finished with 12 wins. The Chiefs had an over/under of 8 and finished with 12 wins. The Packers opened 2018 with an over/under of 10, but finished the season with only 5 wins. Jags over/under was 9 and they finished with 5. Raiders over/under was 8 but finished with 4. Vegas is "wrong" just like the rest of us, but again, their aim is not to be right, their aim is to make money by predicting how people will place bets.

 

There are plenty of national media members who say lots of good things about the Bills, Josh Allen, and especially McDermott and Beane. I think the press has been very positive about the Bills, with some even claiming they have a chance to make the playoffs and even win the division.

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Midwest1981 said:

I can't help but ask this question when I consider the opinions of many, if not most, Bills' fans with respect to how we'll do this year versus what the media, theoretically objective but admittedly necessarily as "plugged in" on a daily basis, thinks.  Who's going to be proven wrong here? 

 

More on media predictions in a second, but I see a Bills team that has a second-year QB who many originally advocated an entire redshirt year for and is still raw but nevertheless got better as last season progressed and the Bills surprisingly went 5-5 in games he started and finished (that excludes Houston).  I also see what almost has to represent an improved offensive line, with or without Morse, and offensive skill position units, because of both the talent we brought in and the paucity of talent we had for most of last year in these areas.  We won't be great offensively but absolutely better.  And we seem to have only gotten stronger defensively overall.  What I don't see is an incredibly daunting schedule.

 

I don't see Playoffs yet but I see us winning a couple more games than last year- say, 8-8 or maybe even 9-7- but poised to make a bigger jump next year.

 

What does the (theoretically) impartial media see?  It's nothing nearly as encouraging as this.  Belief or disbelief in Josh Allen is tethered to all of this- and I'm sure most in the media don't consider our record last year in games he started- but here's a pretty sampling:

 

- Vegas' over/under still sits at 6.5 wins, despite most bets coming in on the over.

- Buffalo's Super Bowl odds (100 to 1) are only worse than the Giants, Lions, Bengals, Dolphins, & Redskins (tied with the Cardinals & Raiders)

- No Bills' player made the NFL's top-100, the only team in the league without a representative.

- Lindy's Sports, which recently released its prediction publication and is widely popular, has us finishing less in the AFC East.  Yes, even behind Miami.

- Colin Cowherd has said in recent weeks that we're the least talented team in the NFL, albeit with "good coaching."  He also referenced us as a "garbage AFC team" when delineating the quality & depth of the NFC versus the easier path AFC stalwarts take.

- Sporting News released their 2019 NFL predictions yesterday.  The Bills?  5-11.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-predictions-2019-patriots-jets-bills-dolphins-afc-east/hwa0fd8i8cc1o75f7dml9hbs

 

I just find all of this... curious.  And am more curious to see how these divergent opinions unfold.

Maybe it’s a NFL-wide conspiracy against the Bills because of the new stadium issue...it just seems too absurd to think Miami, who is literally tanking this year, is better than a 3rd year rebuilding team like the Bills...

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Media has rarely looked foolish over the last 20 years by dumping on the Bills. As such, it's easy to have a talking point on how they expect the Bills to be between 4 and 8 wins, as they have been very often right. They have two winning seasons in the last ten years, right? Until the Bills are able to make the playoffs with some regularity, it's going to be an easy narrative to spin.

 

Add on the fact that Josh Allen has also been an easy target to bash, talking heads don't really have to go that far.

[Bangarang]

The media betting on us to be bad has been a safe bet for the last 2 decades. Not sure why people are still surprised or upset when all we’ve basically done is prove them right. 

[MR8]

Welp I think it's been well covered... and covered.... and covered again by posters saying the same, correct, thing about it... 

 

So to be different, here's a picture of a monkey

 

 

 

[JaCrispy]

3 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

The media betting on us to be bad has been a safe bet for the last 2 decades. Not sure why people are still surprised or upset when all we’ve basically done is prove them right. 

For me, I guess it’s the whole “worst team in the league” thinking...we may not be a Super Bowl contender, but we will at least be in the hunt for a playoff spot...we have too much talent and good coaching not to be imo.

[MJS]

57 minutes ago, The Plastic Cup said:

Why would the national media say anything else when they've been right about the Bills for the last 20 years?

 

This group has proven nothing.  Allen is still an unknown.  The rest of the offense is a bunch of old guys, injury risks and question marks.  It might come together, but it might not.

Is there anyone who was legitimately stiffed from the top 100 list?  White and Hughes are borderline cases but no one else warrants consideration.

 

As people have been saying for years, the media starts paying attention and believing in the Bills when the Bills start winning 10+ games a year.   Or if they go out and sign a bunch of mouthy, big name free agents which thankfully they did not do.

I disagree that they've proven "nothing". They've proven that they can build an elite defense, especially an elite defensive secondary. Evidence points to them drafting well in this regime as well. And in the first year of this regime they broke a 17 season playoff drought. That's proven success right there which people can (and do) interpret different ways. But the results speak for themselves. On offense, certainly there is everything to prove.

 

But yes, I agree that it would be nice to move away from "this team has potential" to "this team has proven they can win". All we can do is wait and see.

[Elite Poster]

You have to win games to get respect, not go 6-10 and have good catch phrases.

 

Nonetheless, they MUST be good this year. 

[teef]

11 minutes ago, MR8 said:

Welp I think it's been well covered... and covered.... and covered again by posters saying the same, correct, thing about it... 

 

So to be different, here's a picture of a monkey

 

 

 

Agreed. I feel like we do this once a month. Not bashing the op at all. We are just too familiar with the dance. 

[HOUSE]

1 hour ago, teef said:

Agreed. I feel like we do this once a month. Not bashing the op at all. We are just too familiar with the dance. 

 

The Teef is a bully

[Midwest1981]

I think most got the tone i was trying to convey here but just to be clear, if it needs to be made clearer, this wasn't intended to be a 'woe is us, and 'why is the media picking on us?' type of post or thread  I understand where we've been this millennium (two winning seasons since 2000) and I wasn't so much mystified by the reasons for the disconnect between fans and media expectations but rather interested to find out who's ultimately proven correct.  I do believe that there's a lot about this team that someone tasked with following all 32 teams certainly miss, however, and a lot of Bills' "analysis" can be and has been broken down to, "Yeah well, Josh Allen sucks."

[MAGA-Man]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

The Bills have sucked for almost 20 straight years.

 

Everyone (outside of some Bills fans) knows that the playoff appearance was a fluke.

 

Since 2000, the Bills have averaged 6.7 wins/season.

 

That's what the media sees.

 

And Vegas is usually right.

[Nextmanup]

I wouldn't focus on what "pundits" have to say, or what Bills fans have to say.

 

The true unbiased judge of Truth in all this is that Vegas line, set at 6.5 wins.

 

I see nothing to suggest we aren't, roughly, another 8-8 team this year.

 

As always.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

Hmmm...another "the national media doesn't see the team the way we do" thread.  So it IS Wednesday!

 

The O/U Vegas line isn't a national media statement.  It is whatever it is in order for sports books to make money. The betting response will move the number.

Edited August 14, 2019 by Mr. WEO

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

A lot of great, substantive, and well-considered responses.  I still find a couple of the predictions I've come across to be beyond the pale, such as 5-11 or last in the AFC East (or "least talented team in the NFL").

 

We don't have a sexy team- and I realize a team devoid of obvious stars won't attract much attention or garner much praise.  But we are well coached and have a very good, potentially even top-5, back-7, replete with depth in the secondary as well.  In a passing league, that counts when it matters, even if the casual fan doesn't know who Micah Hyde is.

 

And would any of these sources or any of Josh Allen's most strident detractors even know our record in games in which he started (and/or finished)?  We were usually at our most offensively inept, impotent, and frankly turnover-prone and embarrassing when he wasn't out there (Ravens, Colts, Bears, and Patriots games come to mind).  Sure, we weren't exactly explosive no matter who was under center- and were even shut out at one point (week 3 in Green Bay).  But especially in the second half this wasn't an offense absolutely incapable of scoring (22 PPG from weeks 12-17), if Allen and his offensive counterparts are the culprits for the widespread cynicism about our 2019 outlook.

 

Failing to have an offensive juggernaut doesn't have to equate to 5 wins & last place in the AFC East, not unless it's joined by a surprising decline from a defense that should still be ascending because it's so young and talented.

 

The Bills had the thirtieth ranked offense in 2018, behind the Fins (7 wins) and the Cards (3 wins), and their moves to improve their offense have been modest, especially considering that other teams also improved.  The Bills were never serious suitors for OBJ or Le'veon Bell and signed John Brown rather than Antonio.  Mitch Morse, their most notable FA acquisition, has been in concussion protocol since the first padded practice, and their new TE has been sidelined with a broken foot.  They used their first round pick on defense,  and are hoping that their second round OT/GA and other youngsters will step up and improve the OL, RBs, and WRs.

 

Frankly, on offense, it looks like the Bills are trying to build an offense based on the model of an expensive QB surrounded by mostly bargain-basement talent while they're concentrating on the defensive side of the ball.  That's sort of what Carolina has done with some success since they drafted Newton in 2011 but Carolina has had better talent on offense to help Cam out (Greg Olson, Christian McCaffrey, decent OL) than the Bills have given Allen -- and Allen is not nearly as good a QB coming into his second season as Newton was.

 

BTW, the lowest quarter of NFL offenses in 2018 were:

RNK TEAM   WINS

25 -- Titans ----- 9

26 -- Bengals -- 6

27 -- Jaguars -- 5

28 -- Redskins - 7

29 -- Jets -------- 4

30 -- Bills -------- 6

31 -- Fins -------- 7

32 -- Cards ----- 3

 

The average number of wins for these "non-offensive juggernauts" in 2018 was 5.875.  The bottom four teams averaged 5 wins.   Only the Bills and Titans stood pat with their HC and starting QB, and Tennessee did add a former starting QB in Tannehill to push Mariota.

 

Contrary to the fans' narrative in this thread about "bias" and "lazy journalism", it seems that maybe the national media has taken a hard look at the Bills and hasn't been impressed.

Edited August 14, 2019 by SoTier

[Midwest1981]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

The Bills had the thirtieth ranked offense in 2018, behind the Fins (7 wins) and the Cards (3 wins), and their moves to improve their offense have been modest, especially considering that other teams also improved.  The Bills were never serious suitors for OBJ or Le'veon Bell and signed John Brown rather than Antonio.  Mitch Morse, their most notable FA acquisition, has been in concussion protocol since the first padded practice, and their new TE has been sidelined with a broken foot.  They used their first round pick on defense,  and are hoping that their second round OT/GA and other youngsters will step up and improve the OL, RBs, and WRs.

 

Frankly, on offense, it looks like the Bills are trying to build an offense based on the model of an expensive QB surrounded by mostly bargain-basement talent while they're concentrating on the defensive side of the ball.  That's sort of what Carolina has done with some success since they drafted Newton in 2011 but Carolina has had better talent on offense to help Cam out (Greg Olson, Christian McCaffrey, decent OL) than the Bills have given Allen -- and Allen is not nearly as good a QB coming into his second season as Newton was.

 

BTW, the lowest quarter of NFL offenses in 2018 were:

RNK TEAM   WINS

25 -- Titans ----- 9

26 -- Bengals -- 6

27 -- Jaguars -- 5

28 -- Redskins - 7

29 -- Jets -------- 4

30 -- Bills -------- 6

31 -- Fins -------- 7

32 -- Cards ----- 3

 

The average number of wins for these "non-offensive juggernauts" in 2018 was 5.875.  The bottom four teams averaged 5 wins.   Only the Bills and Titans stood pat with their HC and starting QB, and Tennessee did add a former starting QB in Tannehill to push Mariota.

 

Contrary to the fans' narrative in this thread about "bias" and "lazy journalism", it seems that maybe the national media has taken a hard look at the Bills and hasn't been impressed.

There's likely a little laziness in the media.  Do you truthfully think that most who don't follow the Bills took the time to break down our record with and without Allen last year- and then factored that in (since it may matter)?  Do you really think the most virulent Josh Allen detractor realizes the Bills played more or less .500 ball in games he started?  He didn't play well but we absolutely played worse without him. 

 

I'm not sure if I'm addressing someone who can speak to Allen without a jaundiced outlook, though.  Not trying to cause any offense but I believe I read that you've written that given what we traded to move up for Allen (Glenn, pick #21, & two 2nd's to move into #7 to use on Allen) that it would amount to massive overpayment unless- and only unless- he becomes a Hall of Famer, never mind that there are many very good QB's who won't end up in Canton.  Allen isn't Tony Romo but that was a hyperbolic statement, at least in my estimation.

 

I can't say definitively that the Bills will be better, let alone demonstrably, better.  But I do know that Buffalo won six games- and half of Allen's starts- with less talent along both the offensive lines and at WR than they have now.  John Brown & Cole Beasley as your top-two wideouts is FAR from anything desirable but at least they can separate and who is debating they're not better than Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones?  It's also hard for us to be any less productive & proficient rushing the ball, save for Allen's stats.  I also know the schedule appears (critical word) to have about the same level of difficulty. And that defensively we really only lost a 34-year old Kyle Williams and replaced him with a player with arguably more realistic upside than anyone on this roster.

 

We may win six games- or less, as many believe- once again.  But it isn't delusional to see reasons why that isn't the likely outcome.

Edited August 14, 2019 by Midwest1981

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

You know what changes the expectations as to the number of wins?

 

Exceeding them. The Bills make the playoffs, we get to rub it in

[Boca BIlls]

You don't need to bridge anything with media b.c I don't give a ***** what they predict... Unless it's playoffs.