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About Midwest1981

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  1. Midwest1981

    Eagles officially choose Wentz over Foles

    If you throw our Foles' statistically exceptional 2013 season, it's only fair to also throw out his 2015 season in St. Louis under Jeff Fisher, whose teams were infamously offensively wastelands for his last few years. They were just embarrassingly and unimaginably bad, no matter what the personnel (Todd Gurley averaged 3.2 YPC in 2016, pre-McVay). You alluded to Foles' performance in the Playoffs this year. I absolutely agree that he played a poor game in New Orleans- after a great 1st-quarter. But the reason his QB Rating was only 61 was because that second interception, a drop throw Jeffery's hands, dropped it 20 points. But no, I won't simply look at that game through the prism of the box score- he didn't play well. However, he week before against the Bears in Chicago, the league-leading defense in turnovers this year, probably the league's best defense, and a defense with an all-time top-5 DVOA score, 25-40 for 266 yards and 2 TD's & 2 INT's, considering how other QB's performed there this year (Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, etc.) against that defense... that wasn't a "bad" performance. And he came up big in critical moments, including throwing the game-winning TD pass on 4th-down. You also can't dismiss or discount how brilliantly Foles played in last year's Playoffs, at least against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game (Minnesota's defense was arguably the league's best in 2017) & the Patriots in the Super Bowl. His great play is encapsulated in the stats (26-33, 352 yards, 3 TD's/0 INT's & 28-43, 373, 3 TD's/1 INT, respectively) but also consider that New England only punted once all game and could scarcely be stopped- the Patriots' first 3 possessions in the second half all resulted in TD's. So Foles had to match Brady drive for drive, play for play. And he managed to. All that said... Wentz IS the better player and should be the Eagles' starting QB in 2019 and beyond. But Foles has still shown enough that he deserves a chance to start and IMO can be a solid, middle-tier starter, in the area of Cousins/Stafford/Dalton (anywhere from 12th-18th-best overall). His stats through his 5 regular season starts this year suggest he could be an effective starter (72.3% completion percentage, 7.1 YPA, 1,413 yards, 7 TD's/4 INT's, & 96.0 QB Rating). But his Playoff/late-season pedigree the last two seasons implies he could lead a team on a Playoff run since he does seem to perform well in monumental moments. Setting last year's Super Bowl run & MVP aside, the Eagles were left for dead this year at 6-7 and then Foles helps to beat the Rams on the road in week 15, throws for 471 yards & 4 TD's at home over the AFC South-winning Texans in week 16, and then gets them in the postseason the following week and makes some big throws against the vaunted Bears in the WC Round. Foles isn't great but let's not pretend he's awful. Or that there are easily more 15 QB's in the NFL better than him.
  2. You are correct- a TD & XP would've put us up 3 (24-21) with 53 seconds left. Buffalo would've been favored to win the game overall, by any analytical measure (Miami probably at best kicks a FG to tie it to send it to overtime). But good catch/correction. I still find the "positives" of this loss noteworthy...
  3. And that's not saying anything of how that play places all of our remaining draft picks higher, too (go from a late 40's 2nd to early 40's 2nd, etc.). Anyway, just something I found interesting and notable.
  4. However you want to characterize it and however you want to assign blame... I just realized how significance of that play. And not in the way you thought of it before. Sure, to cap off that thrilling win would've been very exciting. Still, just like Robert Royal's inability to inexplicably get a second foot inbounds at home against the Titans in week 16 in 2006 meant Buffalo was drafting 12th (Marshawn Lynch) at 7-9 instead of drafting 20th at 8-8 (based on strength of schedule)... the last play of our week 13 Dolphins' games means TWO things: 1) we're drafting 9th instead of 16th (yes, seven spots that play accounted for) and 2) our third-place finish means we get the Titans & Broncos instead of the Colts & Chargers. Had we beaten & swept Miami, we'd have finished in second-place at 7-9 while they'd have been in third at 6-10. Sometimes it's all how you look at things. In turns out, that wasn't the worst outcome in the world.
  5. Midwest1981

    Super Bowl LIII prediction

    (6) Colts over (3) Texans (5) Chargers over (4) Ravens (1) Chiefs over (6) Colts (2) Patriots over (5) Chargers (1) Chiefs over Patriots (3) Bears over (6) Eagles (4) Cowboys over (5) Seahawks (3) Bears over (2) Rams (1) Saints over (4) Cowboys (1) Saints over (3) Bears Saints 34, Chiefs 31; MVP Drew Brees
  6. Midwest1981

    Clay told he will be released this offseason?

    I think it means to say he’s effectively being told he’s being released this offseason by today’s healthy scratch.
  7. Midwest1981

    Bills fall from 6th to 10th in Draft Order

    It is unfortunate that there are 5 total 5-9 teams and we draft last out of ALL of them due to us owning the highest SOS. I hope this isn’t shades of the 2004 Draft where our 6-10 record in 2003 only netted us the 13th pick (due- again- to a very high SOS). Not that we need a QB- we don’t- but that high SOS is a critical reason we missed out on Big Ben at 10 and reached for Losman in a trade-up to 22.
  8. This is pure, unbridled speculation, possibly completely unfounded. But I came across this morning and thought it was mildly of note, especially since Allbright has a reasonable track record of getting things right. As for as the Bills are concerned, he was absolutely right about us having essentially zeroed in on Allen last year, but league-wide he's a decent twitter follow for his sources:
  9. Midwest1981

    PFF's view so far

    Phillips’ PFF grade is low but a lot of, if not most of, that is a result of his time in Miami- his grade was in the mid-40’s before he got here.
  10. If we three or four more, sure, I could see us drafting around 10th or 11th. But "a couple" typically means two and if we're only winning two more games then chances are we'll remain about where we drafting right now. A 2-4 finish isn't going to appreciably dent our draft position, not when its winning percentage (2-4 = .333) is nearly what our winning percentage already is at 3-7 (.300).
  11. I'm not saying things are looking up as Bills fans right now- I can't pretend I have the most bullish outlook either. But I was thinking a little more deeply about our situation this week and realized that even if worst-case outcomes emerge the next 1.5 seasons (Allen can't stay healthy or doesn't show improve, McBeane still can't figure out offensive personnel, 2019 FA is a swing and miss, etc.)... there's some reason to take heart and be "hopeful" (dangerous, self-injurious concept as a Bills fan, admittedly): 1) Rightly or wrongly, Buffalo won't be taking a QB high in this April's draft. For a team that could- or should- replace half its starting roster, that means (at this rate) adding a top 5 1st-rounder, top 35-38 2nd-rounder, and a top-70 3rd-rounder, plus potentially seven other selections, on non-QB positions (maybe a mid-rounder is spent on developing a backup). Our total draft capital might not make the most appreciable impact as 10 total picks suggest since seven are day 3 picks. But armed with an early 1st, 2nd, & 3rd... that COULD make a big difference. And if Allen fails will also probably equip his successor with more surrounding talent than the talent-bereft situation Allen finds himself surrounded by now. What might contribute to Allen's downfall, if it happens, could aid the chances of success with who follows, since our draft capital WON'T be spent on a QB. 2) A lot of the talk lately related to the $85 million we'll ultimately have to spend in FA this year has been about downplaying- or pooh-poohing it- saying, "Who wants to come to offensively inept Buffalo, anyway!?!?" or because the projected class looks more diluted than most years. But the bottom line is that the Bills, even if they go on a legitimate spending spree, can't hope to spend more than half that total this offseason, anyway. What isn't spent can and will be rolled over into 2020. And while we're "only" third in projected cap space this March (behind the Jets and Colts)... the Bills presently have the most- and a whopping- $131.6 million dollars in cap space in 2020. Even the most pessimistic poster can't deny that could have a positive effect. 3) I haven't given up on Allen & have been encouraged by a couple of aspects of play... while also engendering pessimism because of other aspects. But whether he DOES or DOESN'T pan out... we won't be waiting 3-4 years to find out. McBeane's fate is tied to Allen's and if next year we're still at a point where we score 80 points in 7 games while some other teams are scoring 80 in 7 quarters... they're gone. And that ties in nicely with the 2020 Draft. Justin Herbert, who if he enters the 2019 Draft would safely be the presumptive top QB, purportedly will return to Oregon next year. So 18 months from now he'll hit a draft that also should include Dwayne Haskins & Tua Tagovailoa, among likely 1-2 others of note. 4) As an addendum to #3, just like we may let go of McBeane after next year... we're not perpetually tied to Allen either, despite taking him 7th overall just six months ago. In the new CBA (signed 7 years ago)... QB's are MUCH easier to move on from than before- the financial commitment/entanglement is just no longer there. We didn't sign Allen to a 6-year, $78 million dollar deal with $50 million guaranteed like Sam Bradford did in 2010 (or Matthew Stafford the year before... or Alex Smith four years before, who lasted 8 years in San Francisco despite mostly poor play until year #7). Remember in 2014 the outcry by many when Doug Marrone benched E.J. Manuel after week #4 of just his sophomore season? "You don't- you CAN'T- bench a QB after just 15-20 starts!? He needs at least 30." Well, we did, and he was effectively done here, even if still technically rostered. Additionally, two years ago the Broncos traded up in the 1st-round to draft Paxton Lynch. Well, a mere four starts later- those four starts were evidently enough- and he's not only not starting; he isn't even on Denver's roster (or anyone's). I'm not saying I expect this trajectory for Allen- I'm just saying that it's easier to move on from highly-drafted QB's than before if it doesn't appear it's going to work out, for whatever reason. This could tie into 'shooting our shot' again in 2020. And this operates with the premise that he WON'T work out. If he does... we still have impressive 2019 draft capital AND multi offseasons of more cap space than we could spend to fill out and build up our roster. I think- no matter what happens- we have a chance to be all right...