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About Midwest1981

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  1. Midwest1981

    Move on to 2019

    We should have more than $65 million in cap space, FWIW. The figure in the thread (nearly $84 million) is pre Allen’s contract. But given it’s looking somewhat dubious that McCoy will be on the roster THIS year (if he isn’t this year then he unequivocally won’t be next, freeing up $10 million more)... AND given that we don’t have (m)any major FA’s (Benjamin, John Miller, and Vontae Davis are the closest)... even after in-season moves we should have well over $80 million.
  2. Midwest1981

    2019 Cap Space- Where We Stand Today

    Oh, excellent reminder, Adam- thanks. Yeah, that will decrease our total amount by a little more than $4 million on average both this year and next year. That's based on what last year's 7th overall pick- Mike Williams- signed for. He signed a 4-year deal worth a total of $19,750,056 with a cap # of $3,590,919 in his rookie year and a $4,488,649 cap figure in his second season. Of course, for a multitude of reasons our cap # is very fluid, such as the fact that we'll need to sign guys in-season this year and we'll be releasing other guys post year. A cut candidate, if he has a middling campaign like he had in his two years in Jacksonville, in Chris Ivory, for example. Cutting him would save $2.25 million against the 2019 cap.
  3. Midwest1981

    2019 Cap Space- Where We Stand Today

    For the record, I haven't gone through the list of 2019 FA's carefully enough to pull out everyone. But it wouldn't surprise me if the Bills showed interest in Buccaneers' guard Ali Marpet, if he isn't re-signed in Tampa Bay (or tagged). Marpet happens to be from New York and went to college at Hopart. And we all know there's a safe bet in Le'Veon Bell hitting the market, too. It's rarely wise to spend big on a RB's second contract, especially one with a couple of suspensions already (suspensions generally void guarantees in contracts... unless your Doug Whaley and you make that giant concession to Marcel Dareus and his agent). But if McCoy, God forbid, showed steep regression this year that was not totally attributable to our OL I could see a 31-year old Lesean released ($6.425 million saved against the cap) and a (then) 27-year old Bell brought in on a 3-4 year deal. I should note that I don't necessarily believe Bell is a seamless fit into what McBeane wants to do. I could just see it being a POSSIBLE fit. Hopefully McCoy continues to play relatively timelessly and he can play out his contract, at least.
  4. I've seen some figures thrown out with considerable variance, all the way from projecting us to have as much as $100 million of 2019 cap space to as low as "just" $50 million. Since Wood's release has been officially processed, it's a lot easier to arrive at a more exact figure, even (literally) accounting for some fluidity to this figure, especially in the next nine months. Remaining 2018 Cap Space (able to be rolled over, according to Spotrac): $15,992,915 Current 2019 Cap Space (before leftover 2018 amount is rolled over): $57,585,556 Estimated Cap 2018 to 2019 Cap Increase: $10,000,000 2019 Cap Space: $83,578,471 This amount will go down a few million during the course of this season, as the Bills have to make roster moves to account for injuries. But I don't expect we'll be re-signing anyone mid-season (Kelvin Benjamin is a possible exception- but even for him I expect McBeane wants to see him stay healthy for an entire year) that will appreciably affect this figure, if at all. So before we make any additional cuts to likely increase this amount, we should roughly have $80 million to spend, which will be more than only a handful of teams (it might be the third-highest behind the Jets and Colts).
  5. I'm not going to argue that the Playoffs this year is a stretch- and I can certainly see how an outsider wouldn't be bullish on them either, considering the questions at major positions on the roster that we have, such as QB, WR, and two or three positions along the offensive line. But some of these comments are just uncalled for and gratuitous, like the shots at Josh Allen and his "upside" rivaling that of JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, etc. Or his 2017 finish in the Mountain West Conference award honors, neglecting to mention (FWIW) that he was 2nd-team the year before. I do think that 2018 will be a season mostly of struggle- while the Bills will be growing together as an offense they probably empirically do and will have the toughest first-half slate out of any team in the NFL, even allowing for the fluidity of NFL schedules (at Ravens; CHARGERS; at Vikings; at Packers; TITANS; at Texans; at Colts; PATRIOTS). My guess is we only win 1-3 of those but that the second half is another story and that's when Allen's introduction to the NFL begins.
  6. Evan Silva, a notorious critic of Josh Allen ("notorious critic" is kind), as well as practically every move the Bills made this offseason, is absolutely in the camp that Buffalo is a bonafide contender for the top overall pick in 2019. His opinion isn't isolated, as evidenced by the MMQB article that has Buffalo going 2-14. I personally DO expect a down year, given the shuffled offensive line, a WR/TE core that most Bills' fans admit can be improved upon, and a brutal schedule- particularly in the first-half (5 road games; 3 home games are against quality teams in the Chargers, Titans, and Patriots). But this merciless analysis has to represent a worst-case scenario... http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/80384/59/offseason-low-down Some excerpts (notice that "made the Playoffs" is in quotes): "The Bills traded up for Josh Allen at No. 7 despite a preponderance of evidence suggesting he is a low-probability prospect, most notably inaccuracy quantifiable by Allen’s low completion rates at every level of football and lack of college dominance, where Allen failed to beat out Packers rookie camp arm Nick Stevens (Colorado State) and projected 2019 7th-round/UDFA Brett Rypien (Boise State) for all-Mountain West honors. Allen’s howitzer arm and 86th-percentile athleticism give him upside in the same way Jake Locker, Kyle Boller, JaMarcus Russell, DeShone Kizer, and Paxton Lynch's did. When Allen does play – and he is likely to see the field this year – he’ll have to overcome the NFL’s least-talented supporting cast. Nevertheless, the fact that Allen is likely to make ten-plus starts as a rookie puts him on two-quarterback-league radars. Kelvin Benjamin was acquired by Buffalo for a 2018 third-round pick last Halloween. He predictably made minimal impact as a Bill, scoring one touchdown and clearing 45 yards once in seven games. Benjamin battled a series of knee injuries in Carolina and continued to in Buffalo, tearing his meniscus a month after the trade and requiring offseason surgery. Benjamin doesn’t get open, can’t create after the catch, has always been inefficient with his targets, and has bad knees. Not only has Josh Hermsmeyer’s Game Speed data shown Benjamin runs at a league-basement pace for his position, Next Gen Stats revealed Benjamin’s speed was below average for tight ends last year. Next Gen also ranked Benjamin dead last and second to last in yards of separation at target in each of the last two years. In what projects as a poor Bills passing game, Benjamin’s lone fantasy appeal is projected target volume. 2018 Vegas Win TotalThe Bills’ Win Total opened at 6.5 with -130 odds on the over. Perhaps aimed at capturing public bettors who recall the Bills “making the playoffs,” it was a surprisingly high total for a team that finished 2017 with a -57 point differential and went a regression-bound 6-2 in one-score games. Buffalo “made the playoffs” due to the weakness of the AFC and a few lucky ball bounces. A game-winning 49-yard touchdown by Bengals WR Tyler Boyd bounced the Ravens from the postseason in Week 17, while the Chargers were a far superior team. The Bills have the least talent in the AFC East, and their non-division slate consists of the rising AFC South, tough NFC North, Chargers (home), and Ravens (away). Buffalo half-stepped its 2017 tank and accidentally ran into an ultimately-detrimental Wild Card berth. I’m taking under 6.5 wins, and wagering the Bills don’t make that mistake again."
  7. Midwest1981

    how is Josh Allen doing so far?

    This succinct synopsis isn't entirely wrong but the implication is probably more negative than the reality. To elaborate on Allen's performance- and I've tried to be as plugged in as anyone and take it sources everywhere- for the one day the media was there for rookie minicamp the week before Mother's Day he generally showed well. Then in week one of OTA's (5/22-5/24) most reports were very positive, to the point that Sal Capaccio had to temper them down, saying that from what he saw Allen was doing fine but not enough to be jubilant over and definitely far better than to produce panic. Then in last week's OTA's (5/29-5/31) we had Chris Simms' comments earlier in the week ("According to a team source and someone in the media, Josh Allen is blowing people away. I mean, just blowing people away"). And we also had Tre'Davious White's awfully bullish "report" on the NFL Network where he liked what he was seeing out of Allen so much he thought he'd emerge as one of the league's best young QB's pretty quickly. However, some of that optimism was extinguished with Allen's performance last Thursday, the day the media was permitted to watch, where he was "inconsistent," making some very good throws but also missing bad ones, including a really bad and telegraphed INT in his first 2-minute drill. The media has only been there for one day per three-day weekly OTA's (so just a third of the time, which limits our information). Yesterday's reports of OTA's didn't spotlight Allen, though Mike Rodak tweeted that all three QB's were having "solid" days- before Allen's week ended on a pick on a severely underthrown ball. So it was a discouraging end but still a decent day overall, from the sound of things. If you add it all up, I think there's more positive than negative. It needs to be kept in mind that he is still just performing with the 3rd-team (playing against AND with third-stringers). But that's also by design since it's clear that the Bills weren't going to deviate from their plan unless Allen was flat-out dominant, which he hasn't been. But it sounds like he's been "good" more than he's been "bad."
  8. Midwest1981

    how is Josh Allen doing so far?

    I don't think Rodgers needed 3 years of sitting but he needed a minimum of 1, if not 2, years. Earlier in his career, according to the reports out of Green Bay, it would have been exceedingly difficult to envision him becoming arguably the best QB in the entire NFL. It took him some time to pick up the offense, his preseason performances did not portend the sort of career he'd far (or even close to it), and when he got into regular season games in his first 2 years (2005 & 2006) he went a combined 15-31 for 111 yards with no TD's and a pick. In 2007, he turned a corner and by 2008 he had instilled enough confidence in the organization that Green Bay wouldn't accept back Favre after he reneged on his retirement- the first time. But he wasn't close to a finished product or anywhere what he is now the first couple of years of his career.
  9. If this is the ESPN article referenced, this doesn’t strike me as anymore anti-Allen than any of his other fellow 1st-round QB’s. Rosen’s is by far the most glowing and tne others’ more mixed, with Allen’s arguably implying a tiny bit more optimism than them: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23659740/rookie-quarterback-progress-reports-first-impressions-13-qbs-drafted-2018
  10. Midwest1981

    John Ledyard on with Schopp & Sal today

    According to Charlie Cassey, Daniel Jeremiah, Matt Miller, and others Allen was no worse than the 3rd-best QB in this year's draft. But for "draft twitter" or the "little draft" community (non NFL or non ESPN & NFL Network), like NDT scouting, he was no higher than 5th behind Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson (generally in that order). Ledyard was actually more complimentary and bullish of Allen in this WGR interview than in his draft review of the Bills (and the AFC East). He absolutely excoriates the Bills and their decision to not only draft Allen but to trade UP to do it, while passing on Rosen. He defines it as a franchise-altering move in the absolute worst way (for the record, the Bills are the first team they talk about): https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/locked-on-nfl-2/locked-on-nfl-draft/e/54394834