Midwest1981

Jon Ledyard, now of Pewter Report (writes for the Buccaneers) but a long-time draft guy and reputable football mind, likes we've done so far: Jon Ledyard @LedyardNFLDraft 12h Low key love what the #Bills have done. Rodger Saffold is an upgrade at OG. Morse at that rate is tremendous. And Tim Settle and DaQuan Jones were two of my favorite IDL available, especially at their price points. Hats off to Brandon Beane

There is room for maneuverability without hamstringing or "mortgaging the future." Buffalo hasn't renegotiated any of its long-term contracts in the last couple of years (I'm exempting guys we threatened to cut, like Addison or Star). So we retain that prerogative, which nearly every other team has taken advantage of in the same period of time. The Saints are the most flagrant abuser of this ability- they've entered the last two offseasons $75 million OVER the cap and not only have managed to stay under it but are even one of the finalists for Deshaun Watson and his cumbersome $40 million dollar 2022 cap hit. New Orleans will have to let some FA's go, like Terron Armstead. But for the most part the team has remained intact and their perennial "kicking the can down the road" has continued unabated as that road keeps expanding. Many of us were also a little flummoxed to see the cap-strapped Chiefs sign Joe Thuney to a 5/80 ($46.9 mill guaranteed) contract on the first day of FA last year. Mahomes has a larger deal than Allen (admittedly the cap hits are manageable for now, like Allen's) and Kansas City has more money committed long term than we do. Nevertheless, the Chiefs did it. I also mentioned early in this thread how, for the most part, we have our guys locked up, anyway, which WILL lead to future cap space. From the 2019 Draft, we're not re-signing Cody Ford and likely not Devin Singletary; if if we do, it won't be a lot for a fungible position. From the 2020 Draft, A.J. Epenesa looks like a one-contract player here and Zach Moss may be lucky just to see a third season here. So in the next 2 years we may only re-sign a few of the guys from these drafts: Dawson Knox, Gabriel Davis, and Ed Oliver, which actually wouldn't even kick in until 2024 because he's under the 5th-year option in 2023. We can make cap space now because there will be (considerable) cap space later. Yes, even as Allen's cap hits increase. Post-pandemic, you also can't forget we're returning to significant cap increases every year ($10-15 million).

With the ability to roll cap over, though, it's still always imperative that you're being incredibly judicious with what you're spending. Quite possibly, even likely, we'd be better positioned now if we had been a little smarter with our deals, if not who we actually signed then what we gave them.

You correctly interpreted what I wrote- thanks. I certainly don't mind early aggressiveness- and I realize that unavoidably you're paying a premium in FA when you're acting early because if a player doesn't get an offer they like early there's no really for them to sign so soon. But if we're acknowledging we'd like to be immediately aggressive and inevitably overspending will be part of the equation, we need to plainly be smartly with whom we're handing this money to. The caliber of guys we've signed early- even setting aside names, just considering giving a third linebacker (Klein) a significant contract when three linebackers predominantly aren't on the field, as well as a DE turning 33 before the season (Addison two years ago) a sizable deal, a contract that was renegotiated one year into it- well, it just doesn't justify the aggressiveness. I realize I have the benefit of hindsight and we know now that most of these didn't work out as hoped. But in fairness, many of these were questioned at the time, especially the amount Star received as a one-dimensional DT, and in fairness, sometimes even amateurs like we us fans actually DO get things right. I remember in 2014 when we gave former 2008 1st-round guard Chris Williams a decent-sized deal and most of us derided it, calling it too much for a guy with his resume. Many Bills fans said to "Trust the front-office; this is their job and they know more than you." Undoubtedly that's true but we still cut Williams after one year of that four year contract. I just hope that if we do bring in players you could characterize as "middling," as I did, that we do it once the market has settled. Those players can help us- every player I mentioned actually HAS helped us at one time or another. They're not devoid of usefulness but the contract needs to be commensurate to what the player will realistically provide for us (if not just be good value period where we get more than what we pay for- under Beane, there hasn't been much of that, outside of Beasley and Darryl Williams, IMO).

I don't understand, I never called the Morse, Brown, or Beasley deals a mistake. I said that year's signings were "very good." Those three represent the exception; they're the FA additions of the Beane era that worked out and provided (more than) commensurate value.

I agree. While I do think there's a deal to be made early that will actually move the needle, at least a little bit, in a way these non-2019 FA deals didn't, I would be fine if Buffalo only made one semi-substantial addition early and then checked back next week for the real value. Still, moving forward, with the post-pandemic cap poised to increase at pre-pandemic levels (and then some with the even more lucrative tv deals signed in 2020), Buffalo will have money to spend in FA again, even WITH Allen's contract, which will absorb less and less of the cap (by percentage). Part of that is a function of less than stellar drafts in 2019 and 2020- we’re not probably not re-signing Ford, Epenesa, Moss, and likely not Singletary, and the guys we do don’t seem to be bank-breakers: Oliver, Knox, or Davis. So we’ll have more cracks at this time of year and I hope our approach/tact will get better (I hope that starts this year, in fact). Good point- and that's the thing: especially with less cap space this year than in recent years, we've got to be even more judicious with how we spend it. We will have something to spend but let's be highly targeted with it- and I'd rather pay a little more for someone legitimately proven than still give good $$$ to a guy like Trent Murphy or Vernon Butler hoping they'll advance their career here in a way they didn't in Washington or Carolina (for example(s).

With our roster this close (arguably 13 seconds of inexplicable coaching from a SB)- and with other potential AFC contenders already making critical moves- clearly I hope Buffalo doesn't stand pat as FA opens tomorrow. But if they do wait out the bigger names/contracts, waiting until the second/third wave(s) of FA when the egregious contracts have been weeded out and bargains become possible, isn't the worst idea. Repeating recent activity & philosophy would be. Since 2018 Buffalo has been aggressive early- but for exactly the wrong guys: middling guys, at best, who nevertheless didn't sign contracts reflecting that status. Since both McDermott and Beane have been here, here is a list of guys we've signed in the first 1-2 days FA to meaningful contracts (meaning multiple years at anywhere from $5-10 million per): 2018: DE Trent Murphy (3/22.5; $10.375 mill guaranteed) DT Star Lotulelei (5/50; $25 mill guaranteed) 2019: OC Mitch Morse (4/44.5; $26.175 mill guaranteed) WR Cole Beasley (4/29; $14.4 mill guaranteed) WR John Brown (3/27; $10 mill guaranteed) 2020: DE Mario Addison (3/30.45; $15.25 mill guaranteed) DT Vernon Butler (2/15; $9.3 mill guaranteed) DT Quinton Jefferson (2/13.5; $8.56 mill guaranteed) OLB A.J. Klein (3/18; $9.7 mill guaranteed) Note: ILB/ST Tyler Matakevich (2/7.15; $3.45 mill guaranteed) falls just below parameters set. 2021: None; Emmanuel Sanders & Mitch Trubisky signed to one-year contracts. Morse hasn't been a bargain (was highest-paid center at time of signing) and neither Beasley nor Brown will likely complete their contracts. But 2019 was clearly a class that yielded very good results relative to the $$$ doled out. But 2018 & 2020 were FA periods badly squandered involving significant money on players who haven't simply earned it. I know we're differently positioned now than in 2018 (2018 was Allen's rookie year & we had $50 mill in dead cap in a throwaway season) and 2020 (we were just emerging). But there is simply no excuse to dole out these sort of deals for this caliber of players. All you do when you sign these sort of guys is start thinking when the earliest you can get out of their contracts is. And which of these guys has this question not been frequently asked? We're too close to defend sitting out this week as competitors get better. But our FA approach under McBeane, which has been both aggressive AND poorly targeted, remaining in place would be a worse outcome. Let's hope they've learned and are ready to build on the still remarkable roster they've assembled.

I think that the NFL's problem with the paucity of black NFL head coaches isn't just unconscious bias as it pertains to hiring them, it's how so very few of them are in position to be hired in the first place. Because the NFL is hiring offensive coordinators and there aren't many black OC's to begin with. Currently there are just four: Marcus Brady/Colts, Eric Bieniemy/Chiefs, Byron Leftwich/Bucs, & Mike McDaniel/49ers. But only one of those four- Leftwich- actually calls plays. In 2017, there were 6 new head coaches. 4/6 were on the offensive side of the ball. In 2018, 4/7 on offense. In 2019, 6/8 on offense. In 2020, 4/5 on offense. In 2021, 5/7 on offense. So far this year, of the 6 openings filled, 5 are on offense. It makes sense that the NFL where "Defenses wins championships" is such a boomer adage would specifically seek to hire offensive-minded and oriented candidates. But if concurrently want diversity to happen, you have to create more black OC's (or even QB coaches). I mean, there are some but based on the low #'s is it any surprise that we end up with final #'s such as these? It should be noted that Mike McDaniel is prohibitively the favorite for the Dolphins' job. Or at least was until these allegations were levied against Ross- not sure if that changes anything, though McDaniel is purportedly scheduled to have a second interview tomorrow. And Leftwich allegedly could've had the Jags' job if he was willing to work with Trent Baalke. But I don't blame him for making Baalke's dismissal a precondition of his hiring.

But he still wins. And Tampa Bay seems to have as soon a shot as anyone (maybe tied with Green Bay in the NFC North... but Vikings > Saints this year, IMO) to win their division. And the Bucs get the NFC East and aren't even playing a 1st-place schedule, despite being champ, because technically their 11-5 record didn't win the NFC South last year. Many of you may end up being right but it would fly in the face of even recent history for Brady. We'll see- time always answers questions.

I've seen more than a handful of posters include the Bucs' collapse as one of their picks. I also remember in last year's thread many prognosticators predict that Brady and the Bucs would struggle and we obviously know what became of that. Is this something someone honestly believes will happen, after examining the facts objectively, accounting for the Bucs playing in a division with a rookie HC in Atlanta (and no Julio... plus likely abominable defense), where Sam Darnold "leads" the Panthers, and where the cap-strapped Saints lost Brees, hemorrhaged significant other talent, too, and won't have Michael Thomas for at least six games? Brady's teams the last 11 years have also won 11+ games in the regular season... and actually 12+ with the exception of two years (2018 & 2020... and the 2018 Pats and 2020 Bucs still won the SB). It's hard to see how Tampa Bay isn't vying for home field this season, IMO, so I don't know how anyone sees impending disaster.

NFL: 1. Washington wins 12 games (12-5) behind good coaching, a top 2-3 defense, very impressive skill position players, and a QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick whose historic erraticism/inconsistency has actually given way to a MUCH better QB the last couple of years (emphatically the best two years of his career; he's trending up at 38) despite a Dolphins' team largely devoid of talent in 2019 & 2020 (Fitzpatrick was Miami's leading rusher in 2019... with 243 yards!!!). 2. No team in the AFC North is better than 10-7. Conversely, no team is worse than 7-10. Sneaky competitive division with the Steelers too summarily dismissed and the Bengals' offense poised to pop. 3. The Los Angeles Chargers don't win the AFC West but still win 11 games and rookie coach Brando Staley is the Coach of the Year. 4. Jets WR Elijah Moore flirts with Justin Jefferson #'s in his rookie year. Though it's typically a QB's award (Zeke lost to Dak in 2016 despite leading the league in rushing- even Jefferson as an All-Pro lost last year to Herbert), he'll get some OROTY votes.

Sorry, didn't read what you wrote- scrolling for more Twitter posts...

Dianna Russini @diannaESPN · 34m I’m told by #Titans and #Bills players they were told there is an option of playing their Sunday game on Monday or Tuesday in Nashville. If that happens, Thursday night’s game between the Chiefs at Bills would be moved to Saturday. This all just being discussed.

Zimmer just signed an extension a couple of months ago and has built up enough goodwill (only losing season happened in his first year in 2014) to withstand a 5-7 win season. Rivera's would be purely health-related and like another poster mentioned, the prognosis was encouraging, at least as of the revelation of his initial diagnosis. Fangio's seat isn't as hot as Patricia's. For one, Fangio was a respectable 7-9 last year in his first year and second of all, he can legitimately cite myriad injuries to prominent players and producers (Von Miller, Courtland Sutton, Drew Lock, Jurell Casey, etc.), plus Elway having no plan for a Lock injury (he didn't want to undermine his confidence by bringing in perceived competition), if/when the Broncos struggle to repeat that. Patricia's in year 3 and has made the team markedly worse, which is reflected in their record. Plus, at least Denver competes defensively, even when half their starters are out, which is Fangio's speciality. Patricia comes from that side of the ball, too, and Detroit is horrific defensively.

Unless there's a downturn in his play or the Seahawks' record, it's hard to see anyone other than Wilson winning it this year. In addition to eye-popping stats, like Mahomes in 2018 & Lamar last year, the ability to craft a narrative is critical (Mahomes being so prolific and taking the league by storm as a first-year starter, "Second-year jump!" for Lamar, etc.). And the "Wow, Russell Wilson has never received an MVP vote!?!?" narrative is off and running, not to mention repeated everywhere, and probably won't be derailed.

If the players- or some players- decide at some point to sit out a game, though as Mike Florio pointed out it's not technically "their right" since it runs contrary to the CBA just negotiated and signed in March, I hope it achieves their objective, which should be everyone's objective: to eradicate police brutality and bring about (more) equal treatment under the law. But if the players are withholding their services, their pay will be withheld too. That's hundreds of millions of dollars for whatever week this happens. For Dak Prescott alone, that's $2 million that week. I feel a more effective response would be donating a sizable chunk of that week's salary to a cause that furthers this movement and purpose, not forfeiting the money entirely. Besides, the reason fans particularly care about players in the NFL is because they play in the NFL. That's obvious and axiomatic so what's my point? For players to have maximum influence, opportunity, and a platform and not just be like "the rest of us" with opinions only those closest to us care about, ultimately they need to be playing.

For the record, if we win the division, even as the fourth overall seed, we will be hosting the Steelers in your scenario (4/5 matchup; other matchups are 2/7 & 3/6 while the top seed has a Bye week).

Admittedly it's not as common anymore but sometimes you can still come across this take, that the fate of our franchise the last dozen years was forever changed by that early-game hit in the desert.

While I can't prove it (no one can either way), I don't buy the narrative that Adrian Wilson's hit which concussed Trent Edwards in week 5 of the 2008 season is the reason he failed to become a franchise QB. I think it's a little lazy to assume he would have, especially when even those who attribute the hit to Edwards' career demise admit he arguably had the best game of his career in the very next game he played, week 7 at home against the Chargers. Even though the Bills started 4-0 in 2008, in retrospect it was schedule-aided; expected Playoff teams like the Seahawks & Jaguars had terrible years, we had to mount a comeback against a bad Raiders team, and the Rams finished with the second pick in the draft. And while Edwards played well, he was far from a prolific passer- he had exactly 4 TD passes (through 4 games) coming into that game against Arizona. Edwards revealed a major liability a month later in that Monday night game where we hosted Cleveland- the Browns dropped 7 into coverage and he was lost, throwing 3 picks. And he never had the requisite moxie and fearlessness you just have to have at least some of to succeed as an NFL starting QB, too often proving his penchant for checking it down. "Captain Checkdown" was a real thing. Edwards as a franchise QB probably was not and never was.

Not sure if this counts as one now, now that we're seeing the diametric opposite, which is just what competence, intelligence, preparedness, etc., in our front-office and ownership can do to a team. But since a decent amount of fans, at least at the time, insisted otherwise, I'll throw out this: our parity-defying 17-year Playoff drought from 2000 through 2016 wasn't due to the Patriots' dominance (certainly didn't help effectively beginning the season 0-2) OR some "curse"- it was due to routine and abject ineptitude of the leaders in charge, many/most of whom never belonged there. Whether it was Donahoe or 80-year-old and never-been-a-GM-before Levy or the nebulous "Inner Circle" (Brandon, Modrak, Jauron, etc.) or Buddy Nix, who was hired in large part because Ralph Wilson "had heard of him before," those sort of poor decisions naturally resulted in perennial disappointment for our fanbase. The results on the field spoke for themselves but you don't institute 'Cash to the Cap,' hire retread head coaches not particularly successful in their first go-around, execute a trade of a HOF-talent and eventual inductee LT, overvalue the RB position visa vi the draft (repeatedly), etc., and produce positive results.

Just as a point of clarification/correction- and sorry if somebody else pointed this out and I just failed to see it- but it was actually John Butler who traded a 1st (9th overall pick in 1998; Jags took Fred Taylor) for Johnson.

Will be really interesting to find out where Yannick lands. In my mind I went through all 32 teams to find a hit factoring in the contracting cap (and which teams are already screwed in 2021, like the Eagles and Saints) and who has a need. Seattle would’ve made sense until they traded most of their high picks the next two drafts to the Jets for Jamal. Tennessee makes the most sense. But that’s an intra-divisional trade. Not that Jacksonville really cares where they finish this year. The Rams can always be counted on to make an irresponsible move they can’t really afford, cap and draft pick consequences be damned. Some have guessed Baltimore but that’s a middle finger to Judon, another franchised pass-rusher looking for his payday.

I'm a bit more bullish on the Seahawks than you are, albeit with reservations because clearly their ceiling is capped if Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer keep running an unimaginative and antiquated run, run, pass offense like their QB is a first or second-year starter instead of an MVP candidate. Wilson can't bail them out late as much this year as he's had to do in recent years and he has to be allowed to use his weapons (Lockett, DK, not-done-yet Olsen, returning Disley, etc.) before they're down 10 in the 4th quarter. But while I agree on the deficiencies on both Seattle's offensive and defensive lines, Wilson hasn't had a good- even serviceable- offensive line since very early in his career and has learned to live with it (hasn't caught up to him... yet) and I'm actually pretty high on the Seahawks' secondary. Both Shaq Griffin & Quinton Dunbar were top-12 at PFF and then in addition to trading for Dunbar also of course traded for Jamal Adams after trading for Quandre Diggs at the trading deadline last year, which amounted to a steal. With Wagner, still solid Wright, and recent high picks the last two drafts (Brooks & Barton) I actually like their linebackers (and depth) & back-7 in general. If PFF is right, which posits that anymore it's actually coverage rather than pass rush that produces a more stifling pass defense, Seattle's defense might be better than you expect. We’ll see, though. Something to keep in mind is that Wilson’s never won less than 9 games and has only missed the Playoffs once (happened the same year in 2017). Maybe it changes this year, though, especially if Wilson has to be asked to put on his late-game cape all season.

I'll think a little more about Bills-specific prognostications but here are four relative to the NFL. Let me preface my predictions by saying I'm surprised to see the extent of the doubt (know there's some residual anti-Brady bias) about the Buccaneers, considering how DC Todd Bowles elevated that defense in last year's second half and how much talent is on that roster but just wasn't highlighted or realized because of a QB whose turnovers negated it. And that's the other thing- Jameis had a whopping 35 (35!) total turnovers last year, obviously including 30 picks. It's likely, based on Brady's stats (even recent stats) that Tampa Bay has TWENTY-FIVE fewer turnovers from the position this year. Imagine what a difference that would make for any roster, especially one this good on both sides of the ball. Without further adieu... 1) Tampa Bay and New Orleans BOTH win 12+ games, despite being in the same division. They tie the SB Champion Seahawks & 49ers in 2013 for most regular season wins by two teams in the same division (25). 2) Three NFC West teams make the Playoffs- and the media "darling" Cardinals aren't one of them. The left-for-dead Rams, who were in the Super Bowl just 19 months ago and still have top-heavy talent (young OL a year older too), plus McVay, overcome an 0-3 start to get the final spot. 3) Not AS bold but semi-bold because they'll wrack up losses simply by playing each other: three AFC North teams make the Playoffs as well in the Ravens, Steelers, & Browns. 4) The Cowboys advance to their first NFC Championship Game in 25 years (1995), if not go further. Despite losing McCoy yesterday, they're too talented to not be on a shortlist of NFC contenders, joining the Bucs, Saints, and 49ers, and play an easier schedule.

I actually need to edit my post- I knew better but forgot to make it clear that not ALL 75 players who have been placed on the reserve/COVID list actually tested positive; some were just in close proximity with someone who did/has. In fact, on Tuesday when the list was 30 players long, the NFLPA texted that "only" 21 of those players had actually tested positive themselves; the other 9 were just sequestered out of an abundance of caution.