Midwest1981

Don't pretend that- especially in a zero-sum environment, sport, and profession- that NFL front-offices always get it right or are all competent and qualified for their positions. They're not. The Browns have gone 1-31 the last two years and has started 27 different QB's since their return to the league in 1999. The Jets can't draft a QB to save their lives or their front-office's jobs, no matter how many picks they throw out (though Maccagnan is getting one more shot): Geno Smith, Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg, etc. Even our Bills were one failed Andy Dalton 4th and 12 conversion from a Playoff drought old enough to vote, smoke, or to start college, inexcusable in a salary cap era. I remember four years ago when the majority of Bills' fans didn't like the signing of guard Chris Williams, convinced that the history that preceding him (six seasons found incredibly wanting for the former 1st-round pick) would continue here. But you had some Bills' fans saying, "Why don't you trust the professionals? Don't you think they know what they're doing?" Sometimes they don't- oftentimes they don't. Don't think that because Josh Allen has been elevated in many of their eyes that he's immune to busting.

You're right- that isn't a given (that we could trade up to 6 for Baker) because Denver might want to pounce at 5, if he's even still on the board (slight chance you goes before then). Perhaps if Cleveland isn't game to move off of pick #4 then it just wasn't meant to be. Nevertheless, if that happens I still don't think that gives us license to wipe clean most/all of our 1st-3rd-round 2018 draft picks, plus the seemingly increasing likelihood of including our 2019 1st, for a player in Allen who would be bucking recent NFL Draft history if he succeeded. And this environment isn't ripe for success, necessarily, with a WR unit lacking depth and speed, a TE with a chronic knee condition, a generally substandard offensive line, a head coach hailing from the defensive side of the ball, etc. The above aren't matters we can reasonably address in the draft with a trade-up and Buffalo has never been particularly attractive for FA's.

ESPN has posted the McShay/Kiper interview from this morning to "Get Up's" podcast. You can click on the link to find it and play it... http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/22943353

Then why didn't we just draft Mahomes when he was there last year, instead of trading down with the Chiefs to let them take him, if the ultimate goal was to acquire that extra pick and then trade that and so much else (two 2nd's, two 3rd's, our 2019 1st seems in play) to move up the next year? It makes little sense to have demanded that the Chiefs pay appreciably less for their trade-up then we're being forced to pay now. And for a prospect- if the target is in fact Allen- who if he fails had a glaringly obvious red flag in his (in)accuracy. For the record, Watson was also available at 10 when we traded down.

Even a lot of "little draft"- like NDT Scouting- has surpassed McShay & Kiper in my mind in terms of quality of scouting/evaluation and draft prognostication. So I don't take what either say with a tremendous amount of credence or credibility. But I just thought I'd share that McShay said on Mike Greenberg's new show "Get Up" this morning that based on conversations he's had with league executives the expectation is that ultimately Beane gets a deal done with Gettleman to move up to pick #2. His exact characterization: "high probability." EDIT: 20 minutes after this post "Get Up" added the McShay/Kiper interview from this morning to its podcast: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/22943353 On McShay and Kiper's last Podcast around the 20:35 mark Todd says what he also said today: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=22956078 It isn't the trading up part that's so troubling, though I personally think the cost is astronomical and prohibitive (I'd rather move up to 6 for Baker than 2 for Allen/Rosen and sacrifice half of the draft capital we've amassed; trading up to #2 will nearly wipe us clean). It's that Allen is allegedly the target, someone who clearly and notoriously needs major refinement and might be a full two years from capably playing at this level, if it ever occurs.

I'm actually convinced the Giants will take a QB at #2. They could've had the deal the Jets made with the Colts, plus a little more- no doubt New York would rather have had the second overall pick than the third. And I don't think the Giants refused to move out of it because they share the same city with the Jets or because they value Barkley that high- it's because they're taking Eli's successor now, knowing this opportunity isn't likely to come back any time soon.

That's what I hope happens, too. Ideally, though I expect the Giants WILL take a QB and this perceived emphasis on Barkley is a well-constructed smokescreen, meaning picks #1-3 are ALL QB's, Allen is the QB the Jets are targeting. And the Broncos pass on Mayfield at 5, meaning that we can trade up starting at 6 for him, sacrificing half of what it would cost to move to 2. And let's be honest- the new asking price for 2, which was already exceedingly high- is now preposterous, more so if Allen is the apple of our front-office's eye. If the demands to trade up to #4 for him are reasonable (say 12, 22, & 53, which is still quite a haul for Cleveland and well exceeds the draft chart value) I'd even be fine with making that trade. The presupposition is that they ARE trading up for the right guy. If it's Allen- and Allen is considered to have emerged as the #2 QB QB in the plurality of front-office's opinions- the cost still doesn't matter? Maybe it doesn't to you- maybe you have faith in Allen or at least faith in our front-office's evaluation of him. But I don't. Again, if we had the benefit of hindsight and could separate the wheat from the chaff between these QB's (of course, Darnold at #1 is off-limits) that would be different. I personally don't have the conviction- especially on Allen- to trade virtually all of this draft capital we've been amassing for a QB with notorious and real accuracy concerns, or one with Rosen's checkered injury history (I love Mayfield but I don't even view him worth #12, 22, 53, 56, 65, & next year's 1st).

Thanks for the great responses. Like some of you, I definitely don't love any of these guys enough to sacrifice more than both of our 2018 1st's & 2nd's and either a 2018 3rd or 2019 2nd, to move up from 12 to 2. If Mayfield's there at 4 I'd be willing to give up both 12, 22, & then 53 to move up with the Browns. Otherwise, I'm not kowtowing to the Giants at #2, who think they also us by the *****, and will do whatever we can- to the point of insanity- to move up into the second spot (ahead of the Jets) for Rosen/Allen. It's not just pride speaking- it's sanity. I don't believe in any of these guys enough to trade 12, 21, 53, 56, 65, & next year's 1st & 3rd (probably the accurate "cost" following the Jets' manuever) for that pick. I'd rather just use them all (the picks) and follow a model that has proven CAN be successful (the Vikings and Jaguars' model of this past season where the team elevates the QB position rather than the other way around). And I think with some patience and in the right system Lamar Jackson can be dynamic and better than at least a couple of these guys, anyway. None of us live in the future- we can't propel ourselves into 2021 and know which QB's separated themselves from one another and were worthy of trading two whole year's worth of picks for. As of March 2018 I don't see any of these guys worth what the Giants will now demand.

For me it's including our 2019 1st. While I have little desire or inclination to wipe out the entire treasure chest of 2018 draft picks we've amassed in savvy fashion, I'm deathly afraid of parting with next year's 1st even more- and with McCarron and a rookie likely sharing starts I think that's too valuable of a draft chip to include as compensation, especially given that all of these QB's possess what appear to me to be concerns that can't be easily dismissed: - Darnold's irrelevant, as far as we're concerned, since we can't get to 1. But his sloppy footwork and rash of turnovers in 2017 (picks & fumbles) can't be categorically glossed over. - Rosen throws such a beautiful ball with touch, anticipation, and advanced mechanics and footwork- but he missed half of 2016 with a shoulder injury, suffered two concussions last year (in quick succession), and left a couple of other games with other injuries. - Mayfield's moxie has some appeal and his football acumen, accuracy, eye manipulation, etc. are topnotch, at this point. But his size- hand size too- is less than ideal in Buffalo. - Allen's the prototype- God knows the NFL loves prototypes. It's a shame his accuracy needs such drastic improvement. - Jackson is seemingly the most likely to be there at 12, which in terms of drafting I'd actually be better with taking at 12 rather than sacrificing- maybe squandering; the top-4 are far from 'sure things'- most/all of these picks to move up to #2 or #4. Anyway, if the Bills think that they have really identified the 'other' franchise QB in this draft (setting aside the unobtainable Darnold), I'm good with trading both 2018 1st's (12 & 22), & 2nd's (53 & 56), plus either one of our 3rd's (65 or 96) or a 2019 2nd. But I'm not trading the 2019 1st- I just don't have the conviction in any of these guys to do that.