Midwest1981

This is all predicated on the season actually materializing and not being scrapped, but in what COULD BE encouraging the NFLPA revealed that in the offseason 90 players tested positive for COVID. And in the first week of training camp (since Tuesday; they've taken COVID-19 tests three times) 75 more players were confirmed to have been infected (or to have been around someone who has). And it's been a cross-section of body types and positions, including OL & DL like Andrew Whitworth, Lane Johnson, Tyeler Davison, etc. To date, while the scariest story comes from Whitworth, whose wife, children, and parents all contracted it, the players have not had severe cases or residual concerns, that anyone knows of (since future ramifications can't/aren't known). Just looking at it logically, BMI does not and could not singularly encapsulate the status of someone's health, least of all professional athletes with other-worldly muscle mass. I'm not dismissing concerns- or saying some can't/won't emerge. And larger athletes coupled with underlying issues is a recipe for terrible worry. But we have seen some heavier professional athletes contract COVID.

Here’s a list of all players placed on the reserve/COVID list. By my count, it’s 66 players so far with one guy (Jags’ CB Josiah Scott) already removed from the list and activated. The # will grow and while that seems staggering- for some context- please keep in mind not all of these players actually tested positive but may have also been in contact with someone who did (after Tuesday, for example, 30 players had been put on this list but the NFLPA tweeted that “only” 21 of them had tested positive). And keep in mind that 80+ players per each of the 32 teams have been tested, by now at least twice. https://www.google.com/amp/s/dknation.draftkings.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/7/27/21340238/nfl-players-covid-19-positive-tests-2020-training-camp-regular-season-full-list

The NFL had every right and justification to suspend him for nearly killing a toddler when he threw a couch off a 15-story building. Then reason for a lengthier suspension for what he said and threatened to do to Mayock. On the 100th anniversary of the league, now this in addition to the other “antics” that have coopted the occasion. Enough already, NFL.

This doesn't provide the context of who plays against first-stringers versus fourth-stringers, but it's nice to see representation from late-round rookies (6th & 7th), since we've also seen what Oliver, Singletary, and (to a somewhat lesser extent) Ford might be capable of doing. Throw in Sweeney as well. https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-rankings-the-top-25-rookies-through-week-3-of-the-2019-nfl-preseason

That's a very critical point to make. Those that insisted Allen would bust didn't expect him to be disappointing; they expecting him to be catastrophically awful. There are varying degrees of busts; Blake Bortles elicits laughter but his NFL profile & career stats suggest he's at least a solid backup and infinitely better than his predecessor, Blaine Gabbert. And virulent anti-Allen individuals thought Allen would be as bad as Gabbert. Maybe it's the soft bigotry of low expectations but it's pretty clear that even if Allen doesn't pan out he isn't on the level of a Gabbert or JaMarcus Russell. We're not hoping he's Jake Locker or Bortles- but he's at least pushed past those worst expectations.

Sure, it is and sure, Allen looking good has also only come in preseason, albeit against more first-teamers (excluding Kuechly last week) than Jones. But the Allen & Jones detractors surely wouldn't be placing any caveats about "preseason" on their performance if they were looking badly; if both were looking as poorly as expected than they'd be going in for the kill, insisting it only proves/validates their preconceptions about them. It just shouldn't be had both ways.

Not a bad thought but Washington has decided to spitefully refuse to trade him. Either he plays for them or he plays for no one. Moreover, I do think the Bills expect a bounceback year from Dawkins at LT & then they have two fairly solid options at RT in Nsekhe & Ford, with Ford moving inside to RG (as he's mostly done the last week plus) if that proves to be the best combination.

There's likely a little laziness in the media. Do you truthfully think that most who don't follow the Bills took the time to break down our record with and without Allen last year- and then factored that in (since it may matter)? Do you really think the most virulent Josh Allen detractor realizes the Bills played more or less .500 ball in games he started? He didn't play well but we absolutely played worse without him. I'm not sure if I'm addressing someone who can speak to Allen without a jaundiced outlook, though. Not trying to cause any offense but I believe I read that you've written that given what we traded to move up for Allen (Glenn, pick #21, & two 2nd's to move into #7 to use on Allen) that it would amount to massive overpayment unless- and only unless- he becomes a Hall of Famer, never mind that there are many very good QB's who won't end up in Canton. Allen isn't Tony Romo but that was a hyperbolic statement, at least in my estimation. I can't say definitively that the Bills will be better, let alone demonstrably, better. But I do know that Buffalo won six games- and half of Allen's starts- with less talent along both the offensive lines and at WR than they have now. John Brown & Cole Beasley as your top-two wideouts is FAR from anything desirable but at least they can separate and who is debating they're not better than Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones? It's also hard for us to be any less productive & proficient rushing the ball, save for Allen's stats. I also know the schedule appears (critical word) to have about the same level of difficulty. And that defensively we really only lost a 34-year old Kyle Williams and replaced him with a player with arguably more realistic upside than anyone on this roster. We may win six games- or less, as many believe- once again. But it isn't delusional to see reasons why that isn't the likely outcome.

I think most got the tone i was trying to convey here but just to be clear, if it needs to be made clearer, this wasn't intended to be a 'woe is us, and 'why is the media picking on us?' type of post or thread I understand where we've been this millennium (two winning seasons since 2000) and I wasn't so much mystified by the reasons for the disconnect between fans and media expectations but rather interested to find out who's ultimately proven correct. I do believe that there's a lot about this team that someone tasked with following all 32 teams certainly miss, however, and a lot of Bills' "analysis" can be and has been broken down to, "Yeah well, Josh Allen sucks."

A lot of great, substantive, and well-considered responses. I still find a couple of the predictions I've come across to be beyond the pale, such as 5-11 or last in the AFC East (or "least talented team in the NFL"). We don't have a sexy team- and I realize a team devoid of obvious stars won't attract much attention or garner much praise. But we are well coached and have a very good, potentially even top-5, back-7, replete with depth in the secondary as well. In a passing league, that counts when it matters, even if the casual fan doesn't know who Micah Hyde is. And would any of these sources or any of Josh Allen's most strident detractors even know our record in games in which he started (and/or finished)? We were usually at our most offensively inept, impotent, and frankly turnover-prone and embarrassing when he wasn't out there (Ravens, Colts, Bears, and Patriots games come to mind). Sure, we weren't exactly explosive no matter who was under center- and were even shut out at one point (week 3 in Green Bay). But especially in the second half this wasn't an offense absolutely incapable of scoring (22 PPG from weeks 12-17), if Allen and his offensive counterparts are the culprits for the widespread cynicism about our 2019 outlook. Failing to have an offensive juggernaut doesn't have to equate to 5 wins & last place in the AFC East, not unless it's joined by a surprising decline from a defense that should still be ascending because it's so young and talented.

Correction: evidently he did play & was active in 2004 & 2005 but didn't throw a single pass. Sorry- didn't see you corrected the record before I posted. Thanks.

Tony Romo as well. He was undrafted in 2003 & didn't play until 2006; I can't imagine he was on the active roster that entire time.

I can't help but ask this question when I consider the opinions of many, if not most, Bills' fans with respect to how we'll do this year versus what the media, theoretically objective but admittedly necessarily as "plugged in" on a daily basis, thinks. Who's going to be proven wrong here? More on media predictions in a second, but I see a Bills team that has a second-year QB who many originally advocated an entire redshirt year for and is still raw but nevertheless got better as last season progressed and the Bills surprisingly went 5-5 in games he started and finished (that excludes Houston). I also see what almost has to represent an improved offensive line, with or without Morse, and offensive skill position units, because of both the talent we brought in and the paucity of talent we had for most of last year in these areas. We won't be great offensively but absolutely better. And we seem to have only gotten stronger defensively overall. What I don't see is an incredibly daunting schedule. I don't see Playoffs yet but I see us winning a couple more games than last year- say, 8-8 or maybe even 9-7- but poised to make a bigger jump next year. What does the (theoretically) impartial media see? It's nothing nearly as encouraging as this. Belief or disbelief in Josh Allen is tethered to all of this- and I'm sure most in the media don't consider our record last year in games he started- but here's a pretty sampling: - Vegas' over/under still sits at 6.5 wins, despite most bets coming in on the over. - Buffalo's Super Bowl odds (100 to 1) are only worse than the Giants, Lions, Bengals, Dolphins, & Redskins (tied with the Cardinals & Raiders) - No Bills' player made the NFL's top-100, the only team in the league without a representative. - Lindy's Sports, which recently released its prediction publication and is widely popular, has us finishing less in the AFC East. Yes, even behind Miami. - Colin Cowherd has said in recent weeks that we're the least talented team in the NFL, albeit with "good coaching." He also referenced us as a "garbage AFC team" when delineating the quality & depth of the NFC versus the easier path AFC stalwarts take. - Sporting News released their 2019 NFL predictions yesterday. The Bills? 5-11. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-predictions-2019-patriots-jets-bills-dolphins-afc-east/hwa0fd8i8cc1o75f7dml9hbs I just find all of this... curious. And am more curious to see how these divergent opinions unfold.

If the Jets take Quinnen third- or even Oliver- as great as those players are, as the team presently plans to line up there would be some diminishing returns somewhere when you consider that their base defense, despite Gregg Williams being a career 4-3 guy, will remain a 34, Gase said. I realize that teams employ 4-down lineman on most passing downs- practically half the game- but unless Williams plans to use Oliver like Donald is used in Wade's 34 (when Williams had Donald with the Rams they were still a 4-3 defense), Oliver would be non-optimally fitted as a 34 NT like he was at Houston. It's also not Quinnen Williams' best position- and they just pad Henry Anderson 3 years, $25 million & purportedly plan to extend Leonard Williams. Those two together are high-quality 34 DE's. New York desperately needs an outside pass-rusher, which they have since the incipience of the Rex Ryan era a decade ago. But they're not in love with Josh Allen- and Bosa won't see two teams pass him up.

Week 3 is unquestionably a home game, given that we have two-straight road games to begin the year. We already know the dates when we host our divisional opponents so it has to be the Bengals, Ravens, Broncos, Eagles, or Redskins.

I don't see the poster's comment/post anymore but for the record, I don't think that he is attributing the statement that Ed Oliver complained during his Pro Day to the right person (if anyone even said it- I didn't personally come across it). Brandt wasn't even at the Pro Day (as this quote implies), he has no other tweet re: Oliver's workout, and this single tweet is complimentary, not critical.

Those aren't mutually exclusive goals- isn't Beane attempting to infuse this roster with more talent? If he isn't then the job shouldn't be his. Talent alone doesn't win but it is still a critical component. Perhaps most of this is moot since Allen/Edmunds, like I wrote in the initial post, seem to demonstrate that the Bills do pursue high upside guys, even if they bring a bit of risk. My only point is that the Bills are still missing high-end, needle-moving talent relative to most teams in the league, teams that have mostly had more success than us in large part to more difference-makers on their rosters. I hope we continue to pursue that high-end talent because it remains a significant part, though not the entire part, of developing a consistent winner.

I agree with this- FA is a supplementary roster tool to both improve your roster and to open up options in the draft and not to pigeonhole picks according to need. That's how it's used for most teams in the league. We just so happen to presently find ourselves with a decently well-rounded but largely star-absent roster. Any team could use more elite talent but I feel we need special talent more than most. And we unsurprisingly didn't find it in FA. I would just be willing to take more risks than others might be, believing what we need/lack is 'special' rather than solid.

It's mistaken to believe that the NFL is not largely predicated on stars. Chemistry is vital, too; not everything is about how star-laden & studded teams' rosters are relative to their counterparts. But look at how many Rams & Chiefs comprised both the All Pro & Pro Bowl rosters. Or how many members of the Bears' defense were represented. Even just look at who makes the Playoffs and who gets to their conference championship games. Doesn't have to be this year- it can be any year. But take this year. You don't think the Chiefs, Rams, Saints, & Patriots have special talent? I'll grant you that- Brady aside- the Patriots don't have top-quarter of the league talent. But Kansas City, Los Angeles, & New Orleans clearly do. And with New England, you have more leeway & liberty to construct a roster not so star-driven when you have a generational & the most accomplished QB of all time in Brady. And the best coach of all time. I am a supporter & believer in Allen but if he ascends to a level where the Bills don't need more high-end talent than they have right now, which is near the bottom of the league with perhaps only one really special unit (our secondary), it likely won't be for a while. I think the Bills need more needle-moving, difference-making talent to really contend.

VERY sorry & I've edited. I really like Oliver, as the first part of the sentence shows, & I've amended the last part. I meant to type this: "To illustrate this, let's hope Ed Oliver's sizzling Combine & Pro Day means he's not OFF the board at 9."

First of all, FA is rarely replete with stars; very rarely are you able to add a Drew Brees (2006), Julius Peppers (2010), or even a Mario Williams (2012). So anyone expecting that the Bills would've been able to load up on top-tier talent in FA were deluding themselves. That said, we didn't- we added 8-9 guys who will serve a role and contribute, some more than others, and should collectively improve this team bur arguably don't move the needle in a seismic way. Because they're contributors- they're not needle-movers. Which is fine. Which is FA. Other than the Jets, no other team added more than one player in FA who are in the top-10 at their respective positions. But doesn't that compel the Bills to desire difference-making, special talent in the draft? Isn't that what we're still clearly missing? I know that's obvious- every team's looking for special talent in the draft. But what I'm saying is, arguably having started last year with high ceiling/low to medium floors type of prospects in Allen & Edmunds, doesn't Buffalo need more unique talent to take a MAJOR step, if not this year but soon? If you compare rosters league-wide, while I disagree with it and know the Bills' roster is decidedly under-valued, the Vegas perception that the Bills are about a 6-win team is in part because there isn't a lot of high-end talent on this roster. High-end talent- shoot, even abundant talent itself- doesn't guarantee winning (see the Steelers). But excluding teams led by HOF-caliber QB's (like Brady), most teams have more- need more- high-end talent than we still possess to play well. Quality coaching helps, which we have, but isn't enough. If I had any influence over this draft, I would place upside at a premium, especially after this FA haul. The realistic ability to reach that upside, too, but believing what still separates the Bills from most teams being difference-making & high-end talent... I would eschew "safe/high floor/ground-rule double" prospects for prospects potentially riskier but with higher ceilings. To illustrate this, let's hope Ed Oliver's sizzling Combine & Pro Day means he's not off the board at 9.

If you throw our Foles' statistically exceptional 2013 season, it's only fair to also throw out his 2015 season in St. Louis under Jeff Fisher, whose teams were infamously offensively wastelands for his last few years. They were just embarrassingly and unimaginably bad, no matter what the personnel (Todd Gurley averaged 3.2 YPC in 2016, pre-McVay). You alluded to Foles' performance in the Playoffs this year. I absolutely agree that he played a poor game in New Orleans- after a great 1st-quarter. But the reason his QB Rating was only 61 was because that second interception, a drop throw Jeffery's hands, dropped it 20 points. But no, I won't simply look at that game through the prism of the box score- he didn't play well. However, he week before against the Bears in Chicago, the league-leading defense in turnovers this year, probably the league's best defense, and a defense with an all-time top-5 DVOA score, 25-40 for 266 yards and 2 TD's & 2 INT's, considering how other QB's performed there this year (Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, etc.) against that defense... that wasn't a "bad" performance. And he came up big in critical moments, including throwing the game-winning TD pass on 4th-down. You also can't dismiss or discount how brilliantly Foles played in last year's Playoffs, at least against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game (Minnesota's defense was arguably the league's best in 2017) & the Patriots in the Super Bowl. His great play is encapsulated in the stats (26-33, 352 yards, 3 TD's/0 INT's & 28-43, 373, 3 TD's/1 INT, respectively) but also consider that New England only punted once all game and could scarcely be stopped- the Patriots' first 3 possessions in the second half all resulted in TD's. So Foles had to match Brady drive for drive, play for play. And he managed to. All that said... Wentz IS the better player and should be the Eagles' starting QB in 2019 and beyond. But Foles has still shown enough that he deserves a chance to start and IMO can be a solid, middle-tier starter, in the area of Cousins/Stafford/Dalton (anywhere from 12th-18th-best overall). His stats through his 5 regular season starts this year suggest he could be an effective starter (72.3% completion percentage, 7.1 YPA, 1,413 yards, 7 TD's/4 INT's, & 96.0 QB Rating). But his Playoff/late-season pedigree the last two seasons implies he could lead a team on a Playoff run since he does seem to perform well in monumental moments. Setting last year's Super Bowl run & MVP aside, the Eagles were left for dead this year at 6-7 and then Foles helps to beat the Rams on the road in week 15, throws for 471 yards & 4 TD's at home over the AFC South-winning Texans in week 16, and then gets them in the postseason the following week and makes some big throws against the vaunted Bears in the WC Round. Foles isn't great but let's not pretend he's awful. Or that there are easily more 15 QB's in the NFL better than him.

Absolutely...

You are correct- a TD & XP would've put us up 3 (24-21) with 53 seconds left. Buffalo would've been favored to win the game overall, by any analytical measure (Miami probably at best kicks a FG to tie it to send it to overtime). But good catch/correction. I still find the "positives" of this loss noteworthy...

And that's not saying anything of how that play places all of our remaining draft picks higher, too (go from a late 40's 2nd to early 40's 2nd, etc.). Anyway, just something I found interesting and notable.