Midwest1981

Even with a better roster without clear, glaring weaknesses at critical spots like along 4/5th’s of the offensive line, WR, and QB (until/unless Allen ascends) the Bills wouldn’t likely thrive this year against a schedule that’s empirically the toughest in the first-half of the league: 5 of our first 7 on the road, home game #3 is in primetime against the Pats, and every opponent in the first-half has either highly realistic Playoff- if not championship- aspirations except for the Colts, who get back Luck. This year isn’t fundamentally about our record, IMO. It’s about Allen showing development and demonstrating genuine promise. With a top-5 pick (and top-37 pick... and top-70 pick, two 4th’s, etc.) this spring, plus $80 million in cap space (with the ability for that to approach $95 million with some releases like then 31-year old McCoy and Hughes) 2019 will be a more litmus test for where we are as a franchise.

Your posts in this thread are wrought with mistaken perceptions, including that most Bills’ fans are totally enamored with McBeane and don’t attribute last year’s Playoff berth to a litany of things, some of which highly likely won’t be repeating themselves. And you’re objectively wrong about Mularkey’s exit since he was given the option to stay by Levy- he just didn’t feel comfortable remaining with Donahue leaving.

1-7/2-6 is probably more realistic but 0-8 can’t be off the table when you consider how brutal the schedule would be even if we didn’t have a litany of questions related to pass protection, the ability to rush the passer, and very dubious offensive “weaponry.” We superficially have the most difficult first quarter, even first half, in the entire league. The opponents, potentially aside from the Colts, are invariably at minimum decent (Ravens, Titans, Texans), if not very good (Chargers, Vikings, Packers, Patriots). And 5 of those first 7 are on the road... and our third home in game #8 is against the Patriots... in prime-time (Monday night), where traditionally they demolish us even more than they typically do. If Allen doesn’t work out it’s going to be extremely costly, considering we condensed the considerable draft capital we accumulated over 1-2 years into moving up for both him and Edmunds (six 1st-3rd round picks in this past year’s draft became three since we packaged 12 and two 2nd’s to move up to 7 for Allen and then packaged 21 and 65 to move up to 16 for Edmunds). But at least we didn’t touch our 2019 draft picks.

We should have more than $65 million in cap space, FWIW. The figure in the thread (nearly $84 million) is pre Allen’s contract. But given it’s looking somewhat dubious that McCoy will be on the roster THIS year (if he isn’t this year then he unequivocally won’t be next, freeing up $10 million more)... AND given that we don’t have (m)any major FA’s (Benjamin, John Miller, and Vontae Davis are the closest)... even after in-season moves we should have well over $80 million.

Oh, excellent reminder, Adam- thanks. Yeah, that will decrease our total amount by a little more than $4 million on average both this year and next year. That's based on what last year's 7th overall pick- Mike Williams- signed for. He signed a 4-year deal worth a total of $19,750,056 with a cap # of $3,590,919 in his rookie year and a $4,488,649 cap figure in his second season. Of course, for a multitude of reasons our cap # is very fluid, such as the fact that we'll need to sign guys in-season this year and we'll be releasing other guys post year. A cut candidate, if he has a middling campaign like he had in his two years in Jacksonville, in Chris Ivory, for example. Cutting him would save $2.25 million against the 2019 cap.

For the record, I haven't gone through the list of 2019 FA's carefully enough to pull out everyone. But it wouldn't surprise me if the Bills showed interest in Buccaneers' guard Ali Marpet, if he isn't re-signed in Tampa Bay (or tagged). Marpet happens to be from New York and went to college at Hopart. And we all know there's a safe bet in Le'Veon Bell hitting the market, too. It's rarely wise to spend big on a RB's second contract, especially one with a couple of suspensions already (suspensions generally void guarantees in contracts... unless your Doug Whaley and you make that giant concession to Marcel Dareus and his agent). But if McCoy, God forbid, showed steep regression this year that was not totally attributable to our OL I could see a 31-year old Lesean released ($6.425 million saved against the cap) and a (then) 27-year old Bell brought in on a 3-4 year deal. I should note that I don't necessarily believe Bell is a seamless fit into what McBeane wants to do. I could just see it being a POSSIBLE fit. Hopefully McCoy continues to play relatively timelessly and he can play out his contract, at least.

I've seen some figures thrown out with considerable variance, all the way from projecting us to have as much as $100 million of 2019 cap space to as low as "just" $50 million. Since Wood's release has been officially processed, it's a lot easier to arrive at a more exact figure, even (literally) accounting for some fluidity to this figure, especially in the next nine months. Remaining 2018 Cap Space (able to be rolled over, according to Spotrac): $15,992,915 Current 2019 Cap Space (before leftover 2018 amount is rolled over): $57,585,556 Estimated Cap 2018 to 2019 Cap Increase: $10,000,000 2019 Cap Space: $83,578,471 This amount will go down a few million during the course of this season, as the Bills have to make roster moves to account for injuries. But I don't expect we'll be re-signing anyone mid-season (Kelvin Benjamin is a possible exception- but even for him I expect McBeane wants to see him stay healthy for an entire year) that will appreciably affect this figure, if at all. So before we make any additional cuts to likely increase this amount, we should roughly have $80 million to spend, which will be more than only a handful of teams (it might be the third-highest behind the Jets and Colts).

I'm not going to argue that the Playoffs this year is a stretch- and I can certainly see how an outsider wouldn't be bullish on them either, considering the questions at major positions on the roster that we have, such as QB, WR, and two or three positions along the offensive line. But some of these comments are just uncalled for and gratuitous, like the shots at Josh Allen and his "upside" rivaling that of JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, etc. Or his 2017 finish in the Mountain West Conference award honors, neglecting to mention (FWIW) that he was 2nd-team the year before. I do think that 2018 will be a season mostly of struggle- while the Bills will be growing together as an offense they probably empirically do and will have the toughest first-half slate out of any team in the NFL, even allowing for the fluidity of NFL schedules (at Ravens; CHARGERS; at Vikings; at Packers; TITANS; at Texans; at Colts; PATRIOTS). My guess is we only win 1-3 of those but that the second half is another story and that's when Allen's introduction to the NFL begins.

Evan Silva, a notorious critic of Josh Allen ("notorious critic" is kind), as well as practically every move the Bills made this offseason, is absolutely in the camp that Buffalo is a bonafide contender for the top overall pick in 2019. His opinion isn't isolated, as evidenced by the MMQB article that has Buffalo going 2-14. I personally DO expect a down year, given the shuffled offensive line, a WR/TE core that most Bills' fans admit can be improved upon, and a brutal schedule- particularly in the first-half (5 road games; 3 home games are against quality teams in the Chargers, Titans, and Patriots). But this merciless analysis has to represent a worst-case scenario... http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/80384/59/offseason-low-down Some excerpts (notice that "made the Playoffs" is in quotes): "The Bills traded up for Josh Allen at No. 7 despite a preponderance of evidence suggesting he is a low-probability prospect, most notably inaccuracy quantifiable by Allen’s low completion rates at every level of football and lack of college dominance, where Allen failed to beat out Packers rookie camp arm Nick Stevens (Colorado State) and projected 2019 7th-round/UDFA Brett Rypien (Boise State) for all-Mountain West honors. Allen’s howitzer arm and 86th-percentile athleticism give him upside in the same way Jake Locker, Kyle Boller, JaMarcus Russell, DeShone Kizer, and Paxton Lynch's did. When Allen does play – and he is likely to see the field this year – he’ll have to overcome the NFL’s least-talented supporting cast. Nevertheless, the fact that Allen is likely to make ten-plus starts as a rookie puts him on two-quarterback-league radars. Kelvin Benjamin was acquired by Buffalo for a 2018 third-round pick last Halloween. He predictably made minimal impact as a Bill, scoring one touchdown and clearing 45 yards once in seven games. Benjamin battled a series of knee injuries in Carolina and continued to in Buffalo, tearing his meniscus a month after the trade and requiring offseason surgery. Benjamin doesn’t get open, can’t create after the catch, has always been inefficient with his targets, and has bad knees. Not only has Josh Hermsmeyer’s Game Speed data shown Benjamin runs at a league-basement pace for his position, Next Gen Stats revealed Benjamin’s speed was below average for tight ends last year. Next Gen also ranked Benjamin dead last and second to last in yards of separation at target in each of the last two years. In what projects as a poor Bills passing game, Benjamin’s lone fantasy appeal is projected target volume. 2018 Vegas Win TotalThe Bills’ Win Total opened at 6.5 with -130 odds on the over. Perhaps aimed at capturing public bettors who recall the Bills “making the playoffs,” it was a surprisingly high total for a team that finished 2017 with a -57 point differential and went a regression-bound 6-2 in one-score games. Buffalo “made the playoffs” due to the weakness of the AFC and a few lucky ball bounces. A game-winning 49-yard touchdown by Bengals WR Tyler Boyd bounced the Ravens from the postseason in Week 17, while the Chargers were a far superior team. The Bills have the least talent in the AFC East, and their non-division slate consists of the rising AFC South, tough NFC North, Chargers (home), and Ravens (away). Buffalo half-stepped its 2017 tank and accidentally ran into an ultimately-detrimental Wild Card berth. I’m taking under 6.5 wins, and wagering the Bills don’t make that mistake again."

This succinct synopsis isn't entirely wrong but the implication is probably more negative than the reality. To elaborate on Allen's performance- and I've tried to be as plugged in as anyone and take it sources everywhere- for the one day the media was there for rookie minicamp the week before Mother's Day he generally showed well. Then in week one of OTA's (5/22-5/24) most reports were very positive, to the point that Sal Capaccio had to temper them down, saying that from what he saw Allen was doing fine but not enough to be jubilant over and definitely far better than to produce panic. Then in last week's OTA's (5/29-5/31) we had Chris Simms' comments earlier in the week ("According to a team source and someone in the media, Josh Allen is blowing people away. I mean, just blowing people away"). And we also had Tre'Davious White's awfully bullish "report" on the NFL Network where he liked what he was seeing out of Allen so much he thought he'd emerge as one of the league's best young QB's pretty quickly. However, some of that optimism was extinguished with Allen's performance last Thursday, the day the media was permitted to watch, where he was "inconsistent," making some very good throws but also missing bad ones, including a really bad and telegraphed INT in his first 2-minute drill. The media has only been there for one day per three-day weekly OTA's (so just a third of the time, which limits our information). Yesterday's reports of OTA's didn't spotlight Allen, though Mike Rodak tweeted that all three QB's were having "solid" days- before Allen's week ended on a pick on a severely underthrown ball. So it was a discouraging end but still a decent day overall, from the sound of things. If you add it all up, I think there's more positive than negative. It needs to be kept in mind that he is still just performing with the 3rd-team (playing against AND with third-stringers). But that's also by design since it's clear that the Bills weren't going to deviate from their plan unless Allen was flat-out dominant, which he hasn't been. But it sounds like he's been "good" more than he's been "bad."

I don't think Rodgers needed 3 years of sitting but he needed a minimum of 1, if not 2, years. Earlier in his career, according to the reports out of Green Bay, it would have been exceedingly difficult to envision him becoming arguably the best QB in the entire NFL. It took him some time to pick up the offense, his preseason performances did not portend the sort of career he'd far (or even close to it), and when he got into regular season games in his first 2 years (2005 & 2006) he went a combined 15-31 for 111 yards with no TD's and a pick. In 2007, he turned a corner and by 2008 he had instilled enough confidence in the organization that Green Bay wouldn't accept back Favre after he reneged on his retirement- the first time. But he wasn't close to a finished product or anywhere what he is now the first couple of years of his career.

If this is the ESPN article referenced, this doesn’t strike me as anymore anti-Allen than any of his other fellow 1st-round QB’s. Rosen’s is by far the most glowing and tne others’ more mixed, with Allen’s arguably implying a tiny bit more optimism than them: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23659740/rookie-quarterback-progress-reports-first-impressions-13-qbs-drafted-2018

According to Charlie Cassey, Daniel Jeremiah, Matt Miller, and others Allen was no worse than the 3rd-best QB in this year's draft. But for "draft twitter" or the "little draft" community (non NFL or non ESPN & NFL Network), like NDT scouting, he was no higher than 5th behind Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson (generally in that order). Ledyard was actually more complimentary and bullish of Allen in this WGR interview than in his draft review of the Bills (and the AFC East). He absolutely excoriates the Bills and their decision to not only draft Allen but to trade UP to do it, while passing on Rosen. He defines it as a franchise-altering move in the absolute worst way (for the record, the Bills are the first team they talk about): https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/locked-on-nfl-2/locked-on-nfl-draft/e/54394834

There's nothing bothersome or injurious about it, personally- I just thought it was an interesting take. And one shared by others, correctly or incorrectly, seeing as though a few 2019 mocks have us drafting in the top-10 (Rotoworld even has us possessing the top overall pick). Silva is certainly wrong in this instance for failing to see that it was only a finite amount of draft picks, plus a lack of cap space, for failing to upgrade the weaponry around Allen or the line that's blocking for him. It will be malpractice if Beane doesn't massively address those needs next offseason.

Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva 24m24 minutes ago More I've yet to see Beane do a single smart thing. And his biggest decision so far has been to trade up for Josh Allen. You can't blindly trust these poorly-run orgs. Examine their moves for yourself. Silva doesn't give Beane any credit for getting surprisingly good value on parting with a player like Glenn, whom I almost assumed had negative value considering what's left on his contract and the last two injury-riddled seasons. And in retrospect there's no denying Beane got good value for Watkins and- probably a little less so- Darby. I think we significantly overpaid for Star and Chris Ivory is just a younger and slightly more useful Mike Tolbert, IMO. But the Murphy contract was fairly commensurate to his worth and Vontae Davis was worth the one-year "gamble" at that price. I haven't been wowed by Beane, but it isn't fair or accurate to say he hasn't done "a single smart thing."

Silva is a notoriously difficult grader, anyway, but this is a particularly scathing review. I don’t agree with all of it (though I agree 12, 53, & 56 was an exorbitant cost for 7), but I do have to say that I sure hope the Bills’ plan is to give Allen the Goff/Trubisky treatment. What I mean is giving him the superb coaching, receiving options, and line protection the Rams and Bears have made a conscious and concerted point to do the last two offseasons. Right now Allen has very little of what he’ll need to succeed- and he already has some individual development to do, of course. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/79600/174/2018-afc-draft-grades?pg=1

I was about as much of an Allen detractor as there was and I was surprised when watching some tape that you couldn’t completely marry the stats to the actual play. I’m not even talking about the ‘wow’ throws. I’m still not totally bullish- and his accuracy still needs to memory (hopefully his mechanical work becomes a part of his muscle memory)- but he has a chance.

No recent examples. But the tape doesn’t show a wildly inaccurate QB. He throws high on shorter throws, which he has to fix. But his accuracy isn’t as alarming as the #’s suggest. Watch the 4:00 minute mark of this (this is one of the three games against teams from a major conference- Iowa from the Big 10- in which he “struggled” statistically). I didn’t post that to point out his accuracy but the play of his receiving options last year. The whole tape of that game demonstrates he had a better performance than just reading the box score the next day would tell you.

I desperately hope not- if the Bills come on the clock this round it's likely only because they've traded next year's 1st, which would be disastrous. While I didn't like the Allen selection, even when I saw it coming, nor did I like the price tag attached to move up five spots... at least it didn't involve trading anything out of next year's class... because our roster is pretty talent-starved at critical areas and it would be a surprise if we weren't picking in the top-10 in all rounds. After what was a night that left a lot to be desire, to trade our 2019 1st would compound matters considerably.

I understand that Allen is pervasively unpopular... but was this selection truly so shocking? For those that wanted a QB at any cost because, "It's been over 20 years!" but are now unhappy because that QB was Allen... how could they have missed how the NFL's opinion of him was dramatically different and more flattering than QB-needy teams' fanbases and draft twitter? This was always a risk and a real possibility. And now it's been borne out.

If he's coming here then I fervently hope you're right. Still, you have to concede it's easier for your mechanics to be cleaned up when throwing against air in a t-shirt and shorts in the spring (Combine, Pro Day, training, etc.) than when the "live bullets" actually start flying in the fall during actual games. I hope they become automatic and reflexive because they're a part of his muscle memory. For many QB's before him, that's when the faulty mechanics reemerge. Let's hope not.

This is an interesting and illuminating piece, as it relates to all 5 major QB's. As it concerns Allen, whom from all appearances (possible key word: "appearances") we've zeroed in on, Orlosvky doesn't focus on accuracy as it concerns his major weakness, but rather his ability to read and assess a defense pre-snap. Orlovsky specifically focuses in on how he routinely has failed to be able to recognize where blitzes will come from, which will have to be quickly and majorly rectified at the NFL level because Bill Belichick will call defenses infinitely more exotic and complex than the Mountain West Conference. https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/dan-orlovsky-2018-nfl-draft-class-quarterback-breakdown

Charles Davis and Troy Aikman were both just on "The Rich Eisen Show" within the last hour and both- when pressed- agreed that Allen has the highest bust potential, both citing accuracy concerns (not just in general- and not purely encapsulated in completion percentage- but even on throws near the line of scrimmage). I'm not mentioning that because I particularly care how Aikman and Davis feel about it, only to repudiate the thought that only "draft twitter" or misinformed NFL fanbases believe Allen has to improve his accuracy. Even Allen has conceded that much. Like I've written within this thread, I've approached Allen with a fairly open mind and a result I can certainly see a pathway for success- and I can get on board with what so many like out of him. And I actually wouldn't hate a trade up for him, even if I wouldn't like it. But we can't pretend the accuracy concerns are totally fabricated and represent a misplaced criticism/concern.

I made a reference to Newton NOT because there are striking similarities, only that I think McBeane (with their Carolina history/connection) could see elements of Allen's abilities (size, arm strength, athleticism, and escapability) that Newton possesses, to varying degrees (less arm strength but clearly more athleticism and size).

I personally don’t characterize drafting Allen as a “nightmare situation”- it’s just not my ideal one and I find other options (whomever the Jets don’t select between Mayfield/Rosen) more appealing. I’ve had an openness to Allen and as a result I’ve warmed up to him more than I thought I would. But he still is going to require patience and exceptional tutelage, which I’m not sure we have (neither is Trent Dilfer- he said on WGR yesterday that our situation is the most worrisome from that standpoint).