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Interesting and optimistic point about our final record


Alphadawg7

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Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

  • Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
  • If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

  • Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
  • Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
  • Poor pass protection
  • Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
  • A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
  • A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
  • A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
  • And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

  • Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
  • If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

  • Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
  • Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
  • Poor pass protection
  • Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
  • A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
  • A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
  • A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
  • And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

Great post but the pessimistic crowd will challenge!

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That is exciting stuff! Winning the division unless Brady really does fall off is more than just acquiring more play makers and improving the o-line. It’s about execution and limiting mistakes. It’s what the Pats do every game. They don’t beat themselves and they execute at a high level!

But we definitely are trending up in  talent and we have our franchise Qb!!

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2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

 

Top obstacle to overcome is the Patriots.  Beating them in Foxboro is very difficult so the Bills have to beat them in Buffalo.

 

Even though the final scores this season weren’t as one sided as they have been in the past, the Bills were never a serious threat to the Pats in those games.

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The future looks bright to me at this point.  Hopefully this GM does the kid some justice and gets some talent around him this off season.  Also hopefully Allen continues to develop and improve.

 

One of the things I enjoyed but didn't enjoy seeing was Allen making plays on 3rd and longs... but they got taken away via penalties.  That doesn't show in the stat sheet. I don't like playing that card typically, but in this case its a good thing to see the kid can make those plays.

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13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

  • Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
  • If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

...

i'm not real big on the shoulda/woulda/coulda thing. at what point does one draw the line? heck,  I could argue that we coulda/shoulda/woulda been 16-0 at this point too. 

 

you are what you are regardless of the endless possibilities. what we are is not bad right now, considering the context of it all.

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13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

  • Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
  • If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

  • Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
  • Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
  • Poor pass protection
  • Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
  • A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
  • A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
  • A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
  • And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

I don't think you can take away the Houston game. He managed to lead the team to only 3 points through nearly 3 quarters of play (It was 10-3 with 2.48 remaining in the third when he left the field). 3 points through 70 percent of the game is not good enough, and he should get the loss if you're going to use that metric. 

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9 minutes ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:

 

Top obstacle to overcome is the Patriots.  Beating them in Foxboro is very difficult so the Bills have to beat them in Buffalo.

 

Even though the final scores this season weren’t as one sided as they have been in the past, the Bills were never a serious threat to the Pats in those games.

 

Hoping we play them later in the year.  We’ll have a young team that needs more games and if Belichek stands pat (yuk Yuk), they’ll be banged up, old and sliding hard.

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16 minutes ago, Bring it said:

That is exciting stuff! Winning the division unless Brady really does fall off is more than just acquiring more play makers and improving the o-line. It’s about execution and limiting mistakes. It’s what the Pats do every game. They don’t beat themselves and they execute at a high level!

But we definitely are trending up in  talent and we have our franchise Qb!!

Really great post and very true!

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

  • Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
  • If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

  • Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
  • Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
  • Poor pass protection
  • Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
  • A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
  • A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
  • A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
  • And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

Another take on this, is how terrible was the Bills coaching to create such a mess for Allen. 

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59 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

If we can keep up our defensive numbers up, or improve with more sacks, and run the ball better, (can't be worse), I think we can def win the division.  That Pats** dynasty ends this year !

i think at this point its us and the jets battling for the AFCE crown moving forward after BB and TB12.  unless the dolphins make a drastic move and get a reliable QB not name Tannehill.  Both Darnold and Allen showed promise this year.  Id put the jets slightly behind us tho due to the HC vacancy/change

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I like to play what-ifs like this, but 9-7 with this team would have been a bad mirage and not good for moving forward because it may have hid some of the weaknesses.

 

Just so everyone knows I've been following the Bills since John Rauch was the coach. This is only the 4th time that I've been excited for the next season after a losing record. The first was after 1972, it was Saban's first year back and we only won 3 or 4 games, but you could see things were changing and the team won 9 games the next year and made the playoffs the following year. I was also pumped after 1986, Kelly's first year and we were 4-12 that season, but it was obvious that he was everything we hoped for during those dark 2-14 years. We had a good '87 season, but the strike messed things up for us. And then there was 2007....yes I know it was Trent, but I thought he had something and the team won 7 games with an injury depleted roster. Of course we know how that ended, but he looked good for a while in 2008. I'm really psyched for next year, I didn't want Allen on draft day, but he's changed my mind. 

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2 hours ago, vorpma said:

Great post but the pessimistic crowd will challenge!

Yeah.  I can hear it now.  But Beane purposely added 55 mill in dead cap a year after making the playoffs.  We should have been trying to win the super bowl this year with Sammy and Dareus leading the way.  

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7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah.  I can hear it now.  But Beane purposely added 55 mill in dead cap a year after making the playoffs.  We should have been trying to win the super bowl this year with Sammy and Dareus leading the way.  

Sammy and Dareus were lousy draft choices on the way out of the NFL; both time has come and gone - they blew it! Great post NewEra!

57 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Another take on this, is how terrible was the Bills coaching to create such a mess for Allen. 

OK, whatever!

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1 hour ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Another take on this, is how terrible was the Bills coaching to create such a mess for Allen. 

They’re banking on a 1 year mess.  He basically said, in other words, that they were taking a step back this hear in order to take 2 steps forward after this year.  I have no problem with it.  I wished gms in the past would’ve done the same thing. Full rebuild, as we never had 1 qb that was worth a dam.  Now that we got our QB, it’s the perfect time

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every team can woulda coulda shoulda themselves to some more wins.   Just seeing his improvement from the beginning of the season til the end give me hope, lets not invent ways to make things better than they were.   

 

But seriously, how in the world do you think they win the Houston game with him in there?  He was pretty bad that day, the offense was bad.   They only had the lead because of Peterman.

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2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

  • Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
  • If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

  • Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
  • Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
  • Poor pass protection
  • Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
  • A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
  • A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
  • A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
  • And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

Good points. I don’t think the Bills overtake the Pats yet but I love the direction their going.

 

Still lots of money to spend and lots of draft picks.

 

Going to be an interesting off season and we should have a better idea of how well this team can do once the draft is done.

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2 hours ago, Foxx said:

i'm not real big on the shoulda/woulda/coulda thing. at what point does one draw the line? heck,  I could argue that we coulda/shoulda/woulda been 16-0 at this point too. 

 

you are what you are regardless of the endless possibilities. what we are is not bad right now, considering the context of it all.

 

I'm pretty sure the post was intended to provide some context.

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2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I don't think you can take away the Houston game. He managed to lead the team to only 3 points through nearly 3 quarters of play (It was 10-3 with 2.48 remaining in the third when he left the field). 3 points through 70 percent of the game is not good enough, and he should get the loss if you're going to use that metric. 

 

8 minutes ago, mattynh said:

every team can woulda coulda shoulda themselves to some more wins.   Just seeing his improvement from the beginning of the season til the end give me hope, lets not invent ways to make things better than they were.   

 

But seriously, how in the world do you think they win the Houston game with him in there?  He was pretty bad that day, the offense was bad.   They only had the lead because of Peterman.

 

The reason I say we could have won that game is because Josh got us down near FG range when he got hurt.  In fact NP came in and completed 1 pass for 6 yards before Haush Money kicked a FG to cut the deficit and make the score 6 - 10.  Our defense held that offense in check, and there was a whole quarter left.  I think if Allen finishes that game, there was a good chance to win the game with him.  It all fell apart when Peterman kept throwing INTs including a pick 6.  I dont know Hou scores again if not for the turnovers. 

 

No lock we win it, which is why I say he may have gotten one more win in that game if not for the injury, but certainly agree no guarantee though.

 

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11 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Good points. I don’t think the Bills overtake the Pats yet but I love the direction their going.

 

Still lots of money to spend and lots of draft picks.

 

Going to be an interesting off season and we should have a better idea of how well this team can do once the draft is done.

 

There is certainly some things they need to do right to over take the Pats next year, but I have confidence they will make the right choices.  Of course though, its the Pats division until it isn't.  But because of my confidence in Allens development and my confidence that Beane and McD will add some relevant pieces around him, I really do think we take this division next year.

 

I think the Pats also though have some serious work they need to do in order to hold on to this division crown next year.  Their offense lacks playmakers that aren't RB's.  Even Edelman is dropping more passes than in the past, and Gronk just hasn't had the same impact.  Personally, I dont think Gronk is a lock to even be a Pat next year.  He may just retire, but if not, this feels like the type of year where the Pats traditionally move on from a player like Gronk and get some value from him before its too late.  

Brady is too old to not have better weapons around him now like in years past where he made the most out of weak cast around him.  He may still find a way this year, but next year they better find him some help because their defense is no where good enough to carry that team if the offense sputters.

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3 hours ago, Foxx said:

i'm not real big on the shoulda/woulda/coulda thing. at what point does one draw the line? heck,  I could argue that we coulda/shoulda/woulda been 16-0 at this point too. 

 

you are what you are regardless of the endless possibilities. what we are is not bad right now, considering the context of it all.

No I dont think you could argue 16-0.

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I don't think you can take away the Houston game. He managed to lead the team to only 3 points through nearly 3 quarters of play (It was 10-3 with 2.48 remaining in the third when he left the field). 3 points through 70 percent of the game is not good enough, and he should get the loss if you're going to use that metric. 

I do get what you are saying but as I said to another Allen elevates his play in the fourth quarter.  Good god Peterman got a TD against them.

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4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

  • Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
  • If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

  • Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
  • Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
  • Poor pass protection
  • Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
  • A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
  • A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
  • A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
  • And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

 

love, love, love the optimism!

 

cheers!:beer:

 

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43 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

No I dont think you could argue 16-0.

I do get what you are saying but as I said to another Allen elevates his play in the fourth quarter.  Good god Peterman got a TD against them.

Peterman made a truly perfect throw! He sucks, but don’t take that away from him!

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2 hours ago, GRHater69 said:

Just so everyone knows I've been following the Bills since John Rauch was the coach. This is only the 4th time that I've been excited for the next season after a losing record. The first was after 1972, it was Saban's first year back and we only won 3 or 4 games, but you could see things were changing and the team won 9 games the next year and made the playoffs the following year. I was also pumped after 1986, Kelly's first year and we were 4-12 that season, but it was obvious that he was everything we hoped for during those dark 2-14 years. We had a good '87 season, but the strike messed things up for us. And then there was 2007....yes I know it was Trent, but I thought he had something and the team won 7 games with an injury depleted roster. Of course we know how that ended, but he looked good for a while in 2008. I'm really psyched for next year, I didn't want Allen on draft day, but he's changed my mind. 

 

Another losing season that left me excited for the next year was in 1979 when the Bills went 7 - 9 but you could see that Chuck Knox was building a winner and 1980 saw the Bills finish 11 - 5 with a trip to the playoffs. 

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10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Doesn't this work both ways? 

 

They lose to the lions had their kicker not missed an xp and a field goal. Same goes for the Titans game. 

Yes. This.

 

True, but I can also cite penalties by the OL that took away plays from us and dropped passes too.  There were plenty of failures by guys around Josh in those games that kept us from winning more decisively.  Just like there were more failures in the Mia and Jets game by people other than Josh that made them close enough to where a single play could swing the game from a W to an L.  

 

The point was not to absolve Josh of any losses, it was to just highlight why the final record isn't something to dwell on and why the future looks bright.  Going 5-5 as a rookie with the group he had around him was already an impressive feat.  But was just pointing out that 2 other plays could have made that record look even more impressive and there is reason to be excited and optimistic despite our 6 win season.  

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1 minute ago, Success said:

I’d like to be in Boston the moment we win the division next year.  There will be some interesting expressions.

 

I’m not sure if there will be any Patriot fans left....if they don’t win the division for a year. 

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5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

  • Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
  • If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

  • Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
  • Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
  • Poor pass protection
  • Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
  • A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
  • A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
  • A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
  • And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

 

Thanks for all the cool stats/facts.  I think any fan who doesn't have an agenda (i.e. - predicted Allen would bust and simply craves to be "right") can see a lot of positives that came out of this season.

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3 hours ago, mattynh said:

every team can woulda coulda shoulda themselves to some more wins.   Just seeing his improvement from the beginning of the season til the end give me hope, lets not invent ways to make things better than they were.   

 

But seriously, how in the world do you think they win the Houston game with him in there?  He was pretty bad that day, the offense was bad.   They only had the lead because of Peterman.

I don't know if Allen would have won the game or not but... They got 6 of their points with Allen and one TD with Peterman.  I feel like at the time Allen went out, the game was starting to come together for him.  Nobody knows what would have happened.  Even great QBs play like crap all game but then have a couple drives at the end of the game for a win.  I see it all the time. 

 

Again, I don't know if Allen would have won or not, but he seemed to be doing better when he went out.  Its not out of the realm that he could have given the Bills one TD by the end of the game.  Its also not out of the realm that he too could have thrown a pick to end it.

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5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

  • Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
  • If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

  • Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
  • Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
  • Poor pass protection
  • Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
  • A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
  • A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
  • A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
  • And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

 

Its a tight league. Many teams could see big swings with cherry picking a handful of plays to swap.

 

he needs to step up and keep improving. Some guys do that, some don’t. Hopefully he does. 

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8 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I don’t play the what if game.

 

The results were the results.

 

Facts like this are the wet blanket on the emotional fire some homers live in during the off-season.  

 

Not even a week since the season ended and some are posting how close the Bills were. By March, we'll be hearing how they were really a playoff team. :lol:

Edited by BillsVet
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I guess you can look for losses and rationalize them into wins and call it a playoff team....

 

the Lions win was due to the kicker choking the go ahead FG, with no Bills kicker to respond and no real hope for a TD to win it for the Bills

 

 

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