Interesting and optimistic point about our final record

[Alphadawg7]

31 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I don’t play the what if game.

 

The results were the results.

 

But...how is it a what if game?  I simply just pointed out that our final record isn’t as bleak as it first looks and that there was a lot to be excited about as the season ended.  If you prefer to not look for optimistic signs in the season, all good, that’s your choice.  Others like myself on the other hand prefer to look closer at things to see where we may be headed overall.  

[row_33]

The NFL season was one of the worst for talent and execution ever, nobody was consistently good and the Bills went 6–10.....

 

 

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

But...how is it a what if game?  I simply just pointed out that our final record isn’t as bleak as it first looks and that there was a lot to be excited about as the season ended.  If you prefer to not look for optimistic signs in the season, all good, that’s your choice.  Others like myself on the other hand prefer to look closer at things to see where we may be headed overall.  

 

You are what your record says you are, a pathetic 6-10.

 

But go ahead and spend hours sifting through it and tell yourself it really was an 11 win team

 

LOL

 

 

[LeGOATski]

6 hours ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

i would really love for us to take the division while Brady is still playing.  I want us to be the reason why Brady retires after next season.

It doesn't matter anymore, IMO. Brady and the Pats have already dominated for almost 2 decades. He's gonna retire comfortably, not distraught over the Bills finally winning the div....

[Logic]

[Jay_Fixit]

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

But...how is it a what if game?  I simply just pointed out that our final record isn’t as bleak as it first looks and that there was a lot to be excited about as the season ended.  If you prefer to not look for optimistic signs in the season, all good, that’s your choice.  Others like myself on the other hand prefer to look closer at things to see where we may be headed overall.  

Because it can go both ways. And the games ended the way they ended.

 

That’s how sports work.

[Reks Ryan]

I understand the optimism.  Allen is a diiferent level QB than the Bills have had this century.   The completion % is a concern. It could go either way for Allen. But his talent and mentality give him a chance to be a true franchise QB.

 

In general I believe  this is the most stable and competent coaching staff and management team the Bills have had since Marv (the coach not the GM).  It really does feel like they’re building a foundation to be consistently competitive the next few years.  

 

This year 6 - 10 is really where they deserved to be.   Expect improvement in Allen’s 2nd year.  But based on his inconsistency this year, his play was not better than the.500 winning %.he ended with.

[reddogblitz]

The thing about our record that encourages me is we won 4 out of the last 7.  We were trending up and even got a comeback win.  This should get the guys that are left a reason to BELIEVE again.  Josh's last game waS his best.  

 

also during the Chan Gailey era we were going all out to win and going 6-10.  This team matches their record with scrubs and a tire fire smoldering mid season.I

 

Gives me hope.

 

go BILLS  !!!

Edited January 3, 2019 by reddogblitz

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

The NFL season was one of the worst for talent and execution ever, nobody was consistently good and the Bills went 6–10.....

 

 

 

You are what your record says you are, a pathetic 6-10.

 

But go ahead and spend hours sifting through it and tell yourself it really was an 11 win team

 

LOL

 

 

 

Except that’s not what I said at all, but all good

Edited January 3, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[iinii]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am not connecting the dots on this to the coaching staff.  

Really? Two offensive coaches have been fired. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, iinii said:

Really? Two offensive coaches have been fired. 

 

That had nothing to do with who we fielded per the previous post I responded to.

[iinii]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That had nothing to do with who we fielded per the previous post I responded to.

I read what you responded to. So were they innocent fall guys?

[cd1]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

• Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
• If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

• Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
• Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
• Poor pass protection
• Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
• A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
• A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
• A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
• And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

 

I have the exact same feeling.

 

This is the Pats Swan Song - next year they will be mediocre.  IMHO

[cd1]

13 hours ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:

 

Top obstacle to overcome is the Patriots.  Beating them in Foxboro is very difficult so the Bills have to beat them in Buffalo.

 

Even though the final scores this season weren’t as one sided as they have been in the past, the Bills were never a serious threat to the Pats in those games.

 

It is important to note:  The Pats won't BE The PATS forever!

 

Eventually they will return to being the pats ...   

 

...and THAT day is coming very soon.

[vorpma]

9 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Sammy isnt on his way out of the nfl.

Consistent mediocrity; if he has matured he may get a few more years!

[Chris66]

8 hours ago, Success said:

I’d like to be in Boston the moment we win the division next year.  There will be some interesting expressions.

I really dont think many Pats fans would be upset if the Bills won the division in the near future. We all know that the reign is ending soon.

[formerlyofCtown]

14 minutes ago, vorpma said:

Consistent mediocrity; if he has matured he may get a few more years!

Consistant injuries yes.  Mediocrity?  I wouldnt call 500 yards and 3 TDs in 9 games mediocre, especially with a 72.7 catch percentage and a whole lot of other weapons on that team.  The word mediocre is overused on this site.  It means barely adequate.  Sorry but that doesnt desribe Watkins.  Often injured would be a fair arguement.

[WideRightRevenge]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mentioned this in other threads, but wanted to draw a little more attention to this fact as another indicator of optimism going into the offseason.

 

Josh Allen was 5-5 in games he started and finished.  However...while that is solid on its own for a rookie, especially considering all factors, think about this:

• Had it not been for a drop by Clay in Miami and a Special Teams blunder against the Jets, Allen would have been 7-3 as a starter.
• If he doesn't get hurt in Houston game, I think we most likely win that game which would have then also had him at 8-3 as a starter.

 

Think about that for a second...Despite all of the following, Josh was literally 2 single plays by this team away from 7-3 and probably had another win taken away when he got hurt against Houston:

• Being a rookie who started the year off without a QB Vet around him either
• Not getting even half the reps in preseason and camp because he was in a 3 way QB battle
• Poor pass protection
• Terrible run blocking resulting in terrible run game (outside of himself)
• A WR1 for most of season that was slow, disinterested, sloppy and couldn't catch in KB
• A WR group as a whole that struggled with separation and catching most the year
• A TE who had probably his worst season in his career
• And a significantly down year for what was supposed to be our best offensive player in McCoy, who saw Ivory run more effectively than him

 

I honestly think we will win the division next year between his continued development, having a year under his belt, a full offseason as unquestioned starter, and the additions we all expect to come in around him on the offense this year.  

 

 

 

Another interesting view from 2018 season ... 7 of our 10 losses were against teams in the Playoffs (Pats -2, Bears, Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Texans) ... and 2 wins of 6 wins against teams that were playoff eligible (Win and your in) the last week of the season (Vikings and Colts) .. with the talent void listed above ... says alot of our defense and one man offense with Josh.  Looking forward to 2019

[BeginnersMind]

We have a starting QB. This is the best thing that came from the season. 

 

He looked a little spazzy at first but by the end of the season, while he was still making some mistakes, he was clearly in charge. 

 

For the first time in a long time, I feel like I can check off QB for a few years at least. 

[vorpma]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Consistant injuries yes.  Mediocrity?  I wouldnt call 500 yards and 3 TDs in 9 games mediocre, especially with a 72.7 catch percentage and a whole lot of other weapons on that team.  The word mediocre is overused on this site.  It means barely adequate.  Sorry but that doesnt desribe Watkins.  Often injured would be a fair arguement.

OK, I buy your argument, however, he has never lived up to first round status nor has he ever been an impact player.

[formerlyofCtown]

9 minutes ago, vorpma said:

OK, I buy your argument, however, he has never lived up to first round status nor has he ever been an impact player.

For the most part due to injuries I would have to agree.  He did have a stretch of 9 games with TT as his QB that he put top 5 numbers Top 3 if I remember correctly.  Then he had surgery.

Edited January 3, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[uticaclub]

12 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Sammy isnt on his way out of the nfl.

Neither is Dareus

[2003Contenders]

3 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Consistant injuries yes.  Mediocrity?  I wouldnt call 500 yards and 3 TDs in 9 games mediocre, especially with a 72.7 catch percentage and a whole lot of other weapons on that team.  The word mediocre is overused on this site.  It means barely adequate.  Sorry but that doesnt desribe Watkins.  Often injured would be a fair arguement.

 

Very similar to the numbers that Robert Foster put up (see the other thread about Foster's production since re-signing in mid-season) -- with Foster averaging over 20 yards per reception. Difference is Foster was an undrafted free agent.

[Trogdor]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

The reason I say we could have won that game is because Josh got us down near FG range when he got hurt.  In fact NP came in and completed 1 pass for 6 yards before Haush Money kicked a FG to cut the deficit and make the score 6 - 10.  Our defense held that offense in check, and there was a whole quarter left.  I think if Allen finishes that game, there was a good chance to win the game with him.  It all fell apart when Peterman kept throwing INTs including a pick 6.  I dont know Hou scores again if not for the turnovers. 

 

No lock we win it, which is why I say he may have gotten one more win in that game if not for the injury, but certainly agree no guarantee though.

 

I like how you gloss over the Peterman TD to put them in a position to win. He lost the game, but the only reason it was winnable was because of him. Either way I don't think Allen wins that game. 

[formerlyofCtown]

37 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

 

Very similar to the numbers that Robert Foster put up (see the other thread about Foster's production since re-signing in mid-season) -- with Foster averaging over 20 yards per reception. Difference is Foster was an undrafted free agent.

Im aware.

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

It's definitely a what if game.

 

Im excited about Allen and assuming he doesn't get hurt or regress next year it's hard to imagine a scenario where they are worse next season. 

 

With that said they got their asses handed to them by playoff teams. The games weren't even close in just about all of them. They could've easily lost the Titans and Lions game. They have a long way to go.

 

Not after Josh came back though from injury.  They had one rough game at NE.

1 hour ago, Trogdor said:

I like how you gloss over the Peterman TD to put them in a position to win. He lost the game, but the only reason it was winnable was because of him. Either way I don't think Allen wins that game. 

 

So since when is being down by 4 in a 6 - 10 game not winnable with a whole quarter left?  Lol

[GoBills808]

People will poo-pooh the 'what-ifs' but there's a fairly strong correlation between the kind of one bounce, one-play type outcomes/games that impact a team's final record...it's usually turnover diff but I put a lot of stock in these kinds of stats tbh. An oblong ball tends to inject a ton of variance over the course of a season, averages are good that the next year it trends more toward the mean. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

How many of KB's dropped TD's would have resulted in a W?    2, 3, 4?

[DuckyBoys]

To be .500 as a rookie starter given what he had to work with is pretty encouraging  For better or worse the kid put the team on his back.  I have to trust that the roster especially on offense should boast considerably more talent in 2019 so the future is pretty bright.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

38 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not after Josh came back though from injury.  They had one rough game at NE.

 

So since when is being down by 4 in a 6 - 10 game not winnable with a whole quarter left?  Lol

10 points - 10 minutes ...    never a guarantee. 

Plenty of teams have made up the difference and won late in the 4th. 

 

Like 808 said  - one bounce, one-play type outcomes can mean a 14 point swing.

[Mark92]

10 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

It's definitely a what if game.

 

Im excited about Allen and assuming he doesn't get hurt or regress next year it's hard to imagine a scenario where they are worse next season. 

 

With that said they got their asses handed to them by playoff teams. The games weren't even close in just about all of them. They could've easily lost the Titans and Lions game. They have a long way to go.

They also could have easily swept the Dolphins and Jets.  This team was pretty decent towards the end of the year.  That's saying something with that roster.  It's hope for next year.  

[Golden Goat]

23 hours ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

i would really love for us to take the division while Brady is still playing.  I want us to be the reason why Brady retires after next season.

 

On board with this. What's Arthur Moats up to these days?

[Gugny]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not after Josh came back though from injury.  They had one rough game at NE.

 

So since when is being down by 4 in a 6 - 10 game not winnable with a whole quarter left?  Lol

 

They had a rookie QB, a new OC, a 2nd year HC/GM and a serious lack of talent on offense.  They did a great ***** job, all things considered and you're never going to convince those who like to piss in Cheerios.

[BringBackFlutie]

On 1/2/2019 at 5:44 PM, dave mcbride said:

I don't think you can take away the Houston game. He managed to lead the team to only 3 points through nearly 3 quarters of play (It was 10-3 with 2.48 remaining in the third when he left the field). 3 points through 70 percent of the game is not good enough, and he should get the loss if you're going to use that metric. 

 

Well.  That and if he won that game we have no idea what his record would have been, since he would've played in 5 other games, and we have no proof he would've learned as much in those games as he did sitting.

[Figster]

On 1/2/2019 at 5:43 PM, Foxx said:

i'm not real big on the shoulda/woulda/coulda thing. at what point does one draw the line? heck,  I could argue that we coulda/shoulda/woulda been 16-0 at this point too. 

 

you are what you are regardless of the endless possibilities. what we are is not bad right now, considering the context of it all.

Take away the 2nd best D in the league and we might be drafting 1st overall in the next draft.

 

I'm just saying...

[reddogblitz]

16 hours ago, cd1 said:

 

It is important to note:  The Pats won't BE The PATS forever!

 

Eventually they will return to being the pats ...   

 

...and THAT day is coming very soon.

 

Where have I heard this before?

 

I'm my humble opinion it depends on who leaves first. If Tommy,  not much changes. The train keeps rolling.  In the Tommy era, the Patsies** have gone 13-6 (.684) with Matt Cassell Jimmy G, and Jacoby Brissett at QB.

 

If however, Bill Bellyache quits first, it's over.

Edited January 4, 2019 by reddogblitz

[Mark92]

18 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

So 6-10? ?

 

I would agree until they got their balls handed to them in NE. 

Do you remember the Monday night game at the Ralph?  Josh Allen would have won that game with the way Bills D played.  Point is that this team is much closer to compeating for a playoff spot than you give them credit for.  

[Orlando Tim]

On 1/2/2019 at 11:32 PM, Jay_Fixit said:

I don’t play the what if game.

 

The results were the results.

Why do you even click on this thread then? Are optimistic people offensive to you?

[Chris66]

20 minutes ago, Mark92 said:

Do you remember the Monday night game at the Ralph?  Josh Allen would have won that game with the way Bills D played.  Point is that this team is much closer to compeating for a playoff spot than you give them credit for.  

How can you say that. He sucked when he got hurt.

[Mark92]

47 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

How can you say that. He sucked when he got hurt.

How can you say they wouldn't have?  This whole thread is what ifs.  

[Mark92]

48 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Says who? 

 

Allen was playing dreadful before he got hurt. 

 

Again, they got crushed by playoff teams this season. Crushed. The games weren't competitive. At all.

Houston was not a crushing.  The Peterman got crushed.  Again even though Allen wasn't playing well there was a good chance they come out of Houston with a Win if he doesn't go down.  All I'm saying is the Bills are in a much better place, financially and with player development then they were to start the 2018.  I don't see the point in blaming the front office for this season until they are done building the roster back up.   I am optimistic as I would hope most Bills fans would be.