The 5 year (realistic) plan for this team

[ShipUPride]

I have very big concerns about the long-term impact that the "2019 spending spree" may cause.  Given that this GM and HC have shown absolutely no ability to judge offensive talent, if they are choosing how we spend 80 million in 2019, that means we likely have large, long term contracts (on offense) that will carry multiple years forward.

 

Here is how I look at it:

 

Year 1:  Average football team that backs itself into the playoffs.  Overall record:  9-8

Year 2:  Horrific handling of the QB situation (among other positions).  Anticipated overall record:  3-13

Year 3:  80 million poorly spent on offensive weapons that have little to no impact.  Possible overall record:  7-9.  McDermott Fired!

Year 4:  New coach inherits team with no salary cap space, long term contracts on offense.  Fire sale commences.

Year 5:  Rebuild is on... again.

 

Anyone else have this fear?

[fasteddie]

Every year since 1999.

[WideRightRevenge]

[nucci]

5 year plan....who does this anymore?

[Andy1]

That is the story of this organization. You left out the part of the former players starting for other winning teams. 

[mead107]

34 minutes ago, ShipUPride said:

I have very big concerns about the long-term impact that the "2019 spending spree" may cause.  Given that this GM and HC have shown absolutely no ability to judge offensive talent, if they are choosing how we spend 80 million in 2019, that means we likely have large, long term contracts (on offense) that will carry multiple years forward.

 

Here is how I look at it:

 

Year 1:  Average football team that backs itself into the playoffs.  Overall record:  9-8

Year 2:  Horrific handling of the QB situation (among other positions).  Anticipated overall record:  3-13

Year 3:  80 million poorly spent on offensive weapons that have little to no impact.  Possible overall record:  7-9.  McDermott Fired!

Year 4:  New coach inherits team with no salary cap space, long term contracts on offense.  Fire sale commences.

Year 5:  Rebuild is on... again.

 

Anyone else have this fear?

Nope

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, ShipUPride said:

I have very big concerns about the long-term impact that the "2019 spending spree" may cause.  Given that this GM and HC have shown absolutely no ability to judge offensive talent, if they are choosing how we spend 80 million in 2019, that means we likely have large, long term contracts (on offense) that will carry multiple years forward.

 

Here is how I look at it:

 

Year 1:  Average football team that backs itself into the playoffs.  Overall record:  9-8

Year 2:  Horrific handling of the QB situation (among other positions).  Anticipated overall record:  3-13

Year 3:  80 million poorly spent on offensive weapons that have little to no impact.  Possible overall record:  7-9.  McDermott Fired!

Year 4:  New coach inherits team with no salary cap space, long term contracts on offense.  Fire sale commences.

Year 5:  Rebuild is on... again.

 

Anyone else have this fear?

 

I dont see McDermott getting fired unless he shows no progress next year.

[Cripple Creek]

1 hour ago, ShipUPride said:

I have very big concerns about the long-term impact that the "2019 spending spree" may cause.  Given that this GM and HC have shown absolutely no ability to judge offensive talent, if they are choosing how we spend 80 million in 2019, that means we likely have large, long term contracts (on offense) that will carry multiple years forward.

 

Here is how I look at it:

 

Year 1:  Average football team that backs itself into the playoffs.  Overall record:  9-8

Year 2:  Horrific handling of the QB situation (among other positions).  Anticipated overall record:  3-13

Year 3:  80 million poorly spent on offensive weapons that have little to no impact.  Possible overall record:  7-9.  McDermott Fired!

Year 4:  New coach inherits team with no salary cap space, long term contracts on offense.  Fire sale commences.

Year 5:  Rebuild is on... again.

 

Anyone else have this fear?

lather rinse repeat

[Helpmenow]

5 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

I dont see McDermott getting fired unless he shows no progress next year.

What 5-6 wins

[Big Gun]

1 hour ago, ShipUPride said:

I have very big concerns about the long-term impact that the "2019 spending spree" may cause.  Given that this GM and HC have shown absolutely no ability to judge offensive talent, if they are choosing how we spend 80 million in 2019, that means we likely have large, long term contracts (on offense) that will carry multiple years forward.

 

Here is how I look at it:

 

Year 1:  Average football team that backs itself into the playoffs.  Overall record:  9-8

Year 2:  Horrific handling of the QB situation (among other positions).  Anticipated overall record:  3-13

Year 3:  80 million poorly spent on offensive weapons that have little to no impact.  Possible overall record:  7-9.  McDermott Fired!

Year 4:  New coach inherits team with no salary cap space, long term contracts on offense.  Fire sale commences.

Year 5:  Rebuild is on... again.

 

Anyone else have this fear?

Sounds about right

[KDIGGZ]

The good news is it's hopefully only a 4 year plan: year 1 don't draft a QB and watch as good QB's get drafted after your pick, year 2 trade away anyone with talent so you can move up and draft a QB with less talent than the QB's you passed on, years 2-3 said QB is exposed as a fraud and coaches fired, year 4 new coach drafts a new QB.

[Chuck Wagon]

Well, if we are in year 2, hopefully we'll see:

 

Offseason - draft Bosa or Oliver, otherwise load up on rebuilding the Oline and adding offensive playmakers through draft and FA.

 

Next year, we'll be garbage again because I have little faith in Allen or this offensive coaching staff.  Hire an smart offensive head coach to replace McD and draft Tua, continue to rebuild offensive support talent.

 

2020, Tua at QB with a rebuilt offense and an offensive head coach, along with a defense featuring Bosa or Oliver / Edmunds / White as the backbone. 2020 or 2021 we are good.

[Bangarang]

Year 20 of our 5 year rebuild. No end in sight.

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, ShipUPride said:

I have very big concerns about the long-term impact that the "2019 spending spree" may cause.  Given that this GM and HC have shown absolutely no ability to judge offensive talent, if they are choosing how we spend 80 million in 2019, that means we likely have large, long term contracts (on offense) that will carry multiple years forward.

 

Here is how I look at it:

 

Year 1:  Average football team that backs itself into the playoffs.  Overall record:  9-8

Year 2:  Horrific handling of the QB situation (among other positions).  Anticipated overall record:  3-13

Year 3:  80 million poorly spent on offensive weapons that have little to no impact.  Possible overall record:  7-9.  McDermott Fired!

Year 4:  New coach inherits team with no salary cap space, long term contracts on offense.  Fire sale commences.

Year 5:  Rebuild is on... again.

 

Anyone else have this fear?

 

Of course this scenario is possible. 

But it's also possible that our rebuild plan works.

 

Even the most optimistic Bills fans (who are very pleased with the direction of this franchise) totally expected this kind of result for 2018.

The team is exactly where most of us expected them to be near the midpoint of the season.

 

 

[row_33]

14 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Year 20 of our 5 year rebuild. No end in sight.

 

that's the start of the 5th 5 year rebuild master genius plan

 

[Moulds_80]

[Aussie Joe]

I’m not going to start worrying about what might be the situation a couple of years into the future...

 

There is enough to be worried about now..

[nedboy7]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

I dont see McDermott getting fired unless he shows no progress next year.

 

I'll fire him myself then. 

[26CornerBlitz]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

5 year plan....who does this anymore?

 

That's a plan to get fired for not seeing results fast enough. 

[nedboy7]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

Of course this scenario is possible. 

But it's also possible that our rebuild plan works.

 

Even the most optimistic Bills fans (who are very pleased with the direction of this franchise) totally expected this kind of result for 2018.

The team is exactly where most of us expected them to be near the midpoint of the season.

 

 

 

Not all that shimmers like crap is a rebuild. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

I dont see McDermott getting fired unless he shows no progress next year.

 

...next year is a pivotal year with 10 picks and mega FA dollars o spend.......just wild speculation, but I think if we are in the same position next year at the same time as we are in now, there  could be some changes on the horizon.......

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, ShipUPride said:

I have very big concerns about the long-term impact that the "2019 spending spree" may cause.  Given that this GM and HC have shown absolutely no ability to judge offensive talent, if they are choosing how we spend 80 million in 2019, that means we likely have large, long term contracts (on offense) that will carry multiple years forward.

 

Here is how I look at it:

 

Year 1:  Average football team that backs itself into the playoffs.  Overall record:  9-8

Year 2:  Horrific handling of the QB situation (among other positions).  Anticipated overall record:  3-13

Year 3:  80 million poorly spent on offensive weapons that have little to no impact.  Possible overall record:  7-9.  McDermott Fired!

Year 4:  New coach inherits team with no salary cap space, long term contracts on offense.  Fire sale commences.

Year 5:  Rebuild is on... again.

 

Anyone else have this fear?

 

I suppose I have the same fear for Year 3.   But I have hope too.   That’s a lot of cap money.  Maybe it’ll be spent wisely and set this team on the right path.   I’m more curious than fearful.   

 

This is was always planned to be a rebuilding year.   Will the rebuild plan actually work?   Hard to know when the rebuilders are under an onerous budget and just starting their work.

[Watkins90]

3 hours ago, ShipUPride said:

I have very big concerns about the long-term impact that the "2019 spending spree" may cause.  Given that this GM and HC have shown absolutely no ability to judge offensive talent, if they are choosing how we spend 80 million in 2019, that means we likely have large, long term contracts (on offense) that will carry multiple years forward.

 

Here is how I look at it:

 

Year 1:  Average football team that backs itself into the playoffs.  Overall record:  9-8

Year 2:  Horrific handling of the QB situation (among other positions).  Anticipated overall record:  3-13

Year 3:  80 million poorly spent on offensive weapons that have little to no impact.  Possible overall record:  7-9.  McDermott Fired!

Year 4:  New coach inherits team with no salary cap space, long term contracts on offense.  Fire sale commences.

Year 5:  Rebuild is on... again.

 

Anyone else have this fear?

I don’t get why people think we are going to spend all this money I free agency. Beane has made it very clear that he wants to build this team through the draft using money to sign own players long term.

I have said in the past, this team is going to be filled with short term contracts, a lot of one-year contracts from FA because you are required to spend at least 90% of your cap each year. 

 

They’ll have a couple high priced free agents, but Beane isn’t going to handicap himself like Whaley did in terms of contracts, at least from free agents.

[RochesterRob]

3 hours ago, nucci said:

5 year plan....who does this anymore?

  Maybe he was a political science major at a left leaning (are they not all left leaning) university.

[nedboy7]

5 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Maybe he was a political science major at a left leaning (are they not all left leaning) university.

 

Yes. Most “learning” happens at left leaning places.  Like science. 

Edited October 22, 2018 by nedboy7

[row_33]

hope Brady retires by 2022

 

hope the Pats don't replace him with Aaron Rodgers 2.0

 

hope that aiming for 6 wins is good enough to contend for the AFC East banner at this point in time

 

 

[corta765]

This will not happen. Whether people want to admit or not the biggest issue the Bills have had is lack of congruity. The plan in the owners eyes is at minimum 4 years if not 5. When you turnover coaching and football operations that much it wrecks everything. It will look like this:

 

2017 Year 1 Analysis: McBeane sees their roster both good and bad tries building culture team lucks a bit into the playoffs  9-8

2018 Year 2 Teardown: Full blown tear down while finishing the defense for what it needs to try and be somewhat competitive in games. Goal is to reset everything from cap to draft picks while adding a QB you hope to be franchise. 4-12 maybe 5-11 because they have a habit at home of winning games they shouldn't

2019 Year 3 New Base Sets: Next year they should add a lot to the offense and Allen hopefully takes a step up to be competent where he at least isn't a problem even if he isn't the full solution yet. They need to be 8 wins minimum and be at least on the door step of the playoffs if not in

2020 Year 4 Contend: At this point Brady should be gone dead or aged and the team should be curated into the group they want. Division title and 11-5 I would expect to be their bar at that point. Anything less and McD will come under fire.

 

The earliest I think you see any chance McD is gone is the end of 2020 if they are not in the playoffs. Even then I really think the Pegula's have backed away from massive changes routinely and have moved into more of a long term patient approach. Additionally if McD has the team right on the cusp in 2020 even if he misses I still think he is safe for two more years. He does have a playoff birth under his belt regardless of how it happens and how people want to discredit him. That will matter to the ownership.

[PrimeTime101]

42 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

I'll fire him myself then. 

Go ahead. do it. get it done.. I TRIPPLE DOG DARE YA! couldn't do it? awe to bad.

[nedboy7]

5 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Go ahead. do it. get it done.. I TRIPPLE DOG DARE YA! couldn't do it? awe to bad.

 

to bad indeed.. 

[Soda Popinski]

I hope the Pegulas just ride this out until at least the end of the 2020 season.   Give Allen next year and the year after.  He was a 3 year project to begin with.   Build around him in the offseason.    

 

I do agree that Beane and McDermott have shown zero ability to scout offensive talent.    Marshall Effing Newhouse??!    

[Rc2catch]

Why is the consensus that these guys can’t judge offensive talent? 

Have they really even targeted offensive talent? 

Other than grabbing Benjamin for a 3rd and throw ins added from other trades they really haven’t spent picks or money on offense? 

That could be an argument all on its own but why are they destined to ruin 80 million in cap space cause they can’t judge offensive talent? 

Lots of teams liked Allen, they would of drafted him. My guess is some would of even given up more to get him in years past. 

I get the doom and gloom around here since the team isn’t super bowl ready in year 2 and the roster is gutted and kinda fugly on offense. I don’t see any reason they can’t add quality free agents next year along with another strong draft and have this team super competitive. 

I don’t expect to land the top offensive free agents but some quality ones for sure

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

the only way this regime last 5 years is if they field a contender in 2019?

 

they don't, the regime is toast and back to square one?

 

with a 3 or 4 win season they should be picking pretty high next draft?

[ShipUPride]

4 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

Why is the consensus that these guys can’t judge offensive talent? 

Have they really even targeted offensive talent? 

Other than grabbing Benjamin for a 3rd and throw ins added from other trades they really haven’t spent picks or money on offense? 

That could be an argument all on its own but why are they destined to ruin 80 million in cap space cause they can’t judge offensive talent? 

Lots of teams liked Allen, they would of drafted him. My guess is some would of even given up more to get him in years past. 

I get the doom and gloom around here since the team isn’t super bowl ready in year 2 and the roster is gutted and kinda fugly on offense. I don’t see any reason they can’t add quality free agents next year along with another strong draft and have this team super competitive. 

I don’t expect to land the top offensive free agents but some quality ones for sure

 

Taken from another thread (BillsRDue)

#1 - wants Mike McCoy as his OC - is turned down. (McCoy sh*ts the bed in Arizona and is fired)

#2 - hires Rico Dennison

#3 - passes on Patrick Mahomes

#4 - lets Goodwin, Woods, Watkins walk- drafts Zay Jones.

#5 - has a roster with 2 FB's ( DiMarco and Tolbert) and no dominant run game

#6 - goes into the season with Tyrod and Peterman

#7 - starts Peterman in playoff race- He throws 5 INT in ONE HALF- benched.

#8 - brings in Kelvin Benjamin as the WR savior

#9 - scores 3 points in a playoff game.

#10 - fires Rico, hires Dab

#11- loses 3 OL, brings in Newhouse, Bodine - starts Miller, Groy and Ducasse

#12 - fills WR needs with Foster, McCloud, Proehl, cuts Streater, keeps Holmes

#13 - brings in McCarron as his shiny new QB, passes on Bridgewater.

#14- ships McCarron out for a 5th

#15- starts Peterman a second time and gets his ass spanked 47-3

#16- forced to start his rookie and does not prepare for a backup plan in case of emergency.

#17-finds his QB in Derek Anderson who hasn't played in a meaningful game in 7 years.

 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Watkins90 said:

I don’t get why people think we are going to spend all this money I free agency. Beane has made it very clear that he wants to build this team through the draft using money to sign own players long term.

I have said in the past, this team is going to be filled with short term contracts, a lot of one-year contracts from FA because you are required to spend at least 90% of your cap each year. 

 

They’ll have a couple high priced free agents, but Beane isn’t going to handicap himself like Whaley did in terms of contracts, at least from free agents.

Exactly how I see it as well

the talent will improve no more Mr big stuff contracts

[KW95 - JA17]

I under the impatience, but last year was supposed to be the tank year and it didn't happen.  Now it's happening.

 

Although I find it sad that we are not even competitive.

 

Cheers

[PauleeeWalnuts]

Our five year plan as fans should be hoping for a franchise in London so we can have a new team to root for. We all know they will be contenders before the Bills will anyway  ?

[HeHateMe]

The 25 year rebuild.

[Rc2catch]

9 minutes ago, ShipUPride said:

 

Taken from another thread (BillsRDue)

#1 - wants Mike McCoy as his OC - is turned down. (McCoy sh*ts the bed in Arizona and is fired)

#2 - hires Rico Dennison

#3 - passes on Patrick Mahomes

#4 - lets Goodwin, Woods, Watkins walk- drafts Zay Jones.

#5 - has a roster with 2 FB's ( DiMarco and Tolbert) and no dominant run game

#6 - goes into the season with Tyrod and Peterman

#7 - starts Peterman in playoff race- He throws 5 INT in ONE HALF- benched.

#8 - brings in Kelvin Benjamin as the WR savior

#9 - scores 3 points in a playoff game.

#10 - fires Rico, hires Dab

#11- loses 3 OL, brings in Newhouse, Bodine - starts Miller, Groy and Ducasse

#12 - fills WR needs with Foster, McCloud, Proehl, cuts Streater, keeps Holmes

#13 - brings in McCarron as his shiny new QB, passes on Bridgewater.

#14- ships McCarron out for a 5th

#15- starts Peterman a second time and gets his ass spanked 47-3

#16- forced to start his rookie and does not prepare for a backup plan in case of emergency.

#17-finds his QB in Derek Anderson who hasn't played in a meaningful game in 7 years.

 

I mean I still don’t see that as not being able to judge offensive talent. 

A large portion of those moves were not to build an offense. 

They were stop gaps.

Emergencies. 

They haven’t built the offense yet. 

Its development for younger players, and aging vets with simple contracts who can be moved on from with ease.

I honestly don’t think they’ve given two sh**s about an offense since they got here. They almost have their defense built exactly how they wanted. They got some pieces they can work with for the future on offense. 

I have always expected next offseason to be the year they focus solely on building the offensive side of the ball for the scheme they want to run.

I don’t think this years scheme is what they want at all. Just a dummied down simplified version similar to a larger preseason playbook 

[billsfan_34]

5 hours ago, ShipUPride said:

I have very big concerns about the long-term impact that the "2019 spending spree" may cause.  Given that this GM and HC have shown absolutely no ability to judge offensive talent, if they are choosing how we spend 80 million in 2019, that means we likely have large, long term contracts (on offense) that will carry multiple years forward.

 

Here is how I look at it:

 

Year 1:  Average football team that backs itself into the playoffs.  Overall record:  9-8

Year 2:  Horrific handling of the QB situation (among other positions).  Anticipated overall record:  3-13

Year 3:  80 million poorly spent on offensive weapons that have little to no impact.  Possible overall record:  7-9.  McDermott Fired!

Year 4:  New coach inherits team with no salary cap space, long term contracts on offense.  Fire sale commences.

Year 5:  Rebuild is on... again.

 

Anyone else have this fear?

From a long term trend analysis this theory has merit. Lets hope that the cycle is broken and in the offseason some good moves are made in FA. Following it up with another good draft can put this team in contention for awhile.

[LSHMEAB]

One thing I re-discovered yesterday is that a true stud on the defensive line remains a big need.

 

Hughes is up there in age, Murphy is Murphy, Kyle is just about done, and Star is Star.

 

Clearly the offense needs playmakers(plural), but I don't see the offense being great any time soon. If we actually had a dominant defense, you're able to mask SOME of the offensive ineptitude. The quickest way to turn a decent, inconsistent defense into a dominant unit is with a dominant defensive lineman.

Edited October 22, 2018 by LSHMEAB