interesting WR scenario posed by a friend

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The danger with the WR game is, when you don’t have a guy that can really command respect, teams will just shut down an average guy. You absolutely need to factor in what Diggs does for other guys because you have to respect him. Right now we have nobody that would pressure a defense and it’s a dangerous setup. You have to go and get a real number 1 guy to at least make a defense respect you. If we roll out what we have and then draft a 2nd or 3rd wave WR, guys like Shakir and Sammuel are going to get smothered. You have to go get one of the top 2 WRs here or trade for a big time guy.

 

My top idea I'd like to see is a blockbuster with Seattle that gets us pick 16 for BTJ and Metcalf.

 

Highly highly unlikely...but within the realm of possible, if SEA wants to rebuild under new regime and acquire 5 picks 

 

Edited April 8 by Warriorspikes51

[BarleyNY]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

A lot of folks do have Thomas as the third best of the lot. I don't know enough, but from what I've read his talent is such that it's not crazy to view him as just behind Nabers and MHJ. Plus the track record of highly drafted LSU receivers is pretty damn good.

 

I’ve seen Thomas as high as 4th, but I’ve seen him a lot lower too. I do not think he’s a good fit for the Bills. He insisted a Metcalf style WR. An X who is big and fast and is excellent at contested catches. But the Bills have been running an offense with a much quicker passing game. He doesn’t do a good job of uncovering quickly so that limits him to contested catches on quicker routes or longer developing ones. Spending multiple picks on that style of player makes no sense to me. 

[HappyDays]

I don't want to trade for Aiyuk even if we can somehow make it work under this year's cap (and I believe this would be literally impossible in any case). The fact that this is an incredible WR class gives us an opportunity to get two very good WRs on rookie contracts instead of tying up a bunch of cap space.

 

I also don't want to trade up in the 1st, for similar reasons. If we made a huge trade up for one of Nabers, Harrison, or Odunze, I suppose I would understand it. Not what I would do but I get trying to add a true #1 WR to immediately replace Diggs. But trading up for anybody else would be a big mistake IMO. I would rather get two very good WR prospects than just get Brian Thomas Jr (admittedly I'm lower on him than most, but even the consensus says that he is a tier below the top 3).

 

My goal in this draft would be to come away with two WRs in the top 50. If a trade down partner is there I would try to trade back and get a 3rd rounder back, but staying at #28 and picking the best WR available would be perfectly fine. I would then trade back up into the 40s using one of our 2025 2nd rounders.

 

Using that strategy, I would come away with two of the following WRs:

 

Keon Coleman

Xavier Legette

Troy Franklin

Ladd McConkey

Adonai Mitchell

Xavier Worthy

 

I have my preferences from that list, and ideally we would draft two WRs that complement each other (one X, one Z), but I'm less concerned about the specific players drafted than I am about the position.

 

Imagine coming away with two young studs at WR with high upside traits, to kick off the 2nd half of Allen's career. That should be the goal.

 

If this strategy comes after an initial trade down we would still have one more top 100 pick to fill another need with a good prospect, and a litany of day three picks to fill out the rest of the roster. We would eventually enter 2025 with a normal complement of draft picks and a relatively good cap position. I would expect somewhat of a mini rebuild in 2024 but the future would look bright, and who knows maybe the rookie WRs hit the ground running and the offense looks even better than it did last year before long.

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I don't want to trade for Aiyuk even if we can somehow make it work under this year's cap (and I believe this would be literally impossible in any case). The fact that this is an incredible WR class gives us an opportunity to get two very good WRs on rookie contracts instead of tying up a bunch of cap space.

 

I also don't want to trade up in the 1st, for similar reasons. If we made a huge trade up for one of Nabers, Harrison, or Odunze, I suppose I would understand it. Not what I would do but I get trying to add a true #1 WR to immediately replace Diggs. But trading up for anybody else would be a big mistake IMO. I would rather get two very good WR prospects than just get Brian Thomas Jr (admittedly I'm lower on him than most, but even the consensus says that he is a tier below the top 3).

 

My goal in this draft would be to come away with two WRs in the top 50. If a trade down partner is there I would try to trade back and get a 3rd rounder back, but staying at #28 and picking the best WR available would be perfectly fine. I would then trade back up into the 40s using one of our 2025 2nd rounders.

 

Using that strategy, I would come away with two of the following WRs:

 

Keon Coleman

Xavier Legette

Troy Franklin

Ladd McConkey

Adonai Mitchell

Xavier Worthy

 

I have my preferences from that list, and ideally we would draft two WRs that complement each other (one X, one Z), but I'm less concerned about the specific players drafted than I am about the position.

 

Imagine coming away with two young studs at WR with high upside traits, to kick off the 2nd half of Allen's career. That should be the goal.

 

If this strategy comes after an initial trade down we would still have one more top 100 pick to fill another need with a good prospect, and a litany of day three picks to fill out the rest of the roster. We would eventually enter 2025 with a normal complement of draft picks and a relatively good cap position. I would expect somewhat of a mini rebuild in 2024 but the future would look bright, and who knows maybe the rookie WRs hit the ground running and the offense looks even better than it did last year before long.

I'll confess to being influenced by Chris Simms on this, although the bits I've seen of him impress me too: 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Where at these holes?  Maybe 1 guy at DE.  We have starters at CB, S, LB, O line, RB, DT, DE. 

 

If that is all you think we need then I don't know what to tell you.  We may have guys we could start if we HAD to, but lets not pretend we are better at each of those positions than we were last year on a team that already didn't make it past the 2nd round and had to rally just not to miss the playoffs.  

[Toyo321]

Hoping they just take a WR#1 RD1 and get one of the top 4.  Then go for whatever they need after that.  I could see a possible move up but that would be to secure one of the top 3 WR's only, I just know how much Beane is willing to give up to move up the board,  when we need a lot of help still at DE, S and CB.  If they don't move up and stay at #28, the best WR still on the board is fine.

[BeastMaster]

Both ideas are not smart for this team at all

 

Trading premium picks for a player that wants a new deal where he's paid as a top guy is what bad franchises do. Teams like Buffalo with a franchise QB jettison those guys and regain capital to strengthen the entire roster and keep contending.

 

I also do not see the brilliance in trading up in a deep draft class at wideout. Just let the board fall to you. I also don't see Brian Thomas Jr as anything more than a raw prospect that isn't a sure thing. Not worth attaching a high second rounded to trade up for when I can wait and possibly land him or aquire another talented receiver that is more ready to play immediately. 

 

Make the pick at 28, and then trade 60 and our second next year for a high second this year and a mid round round pick next season. Now you have two talented rookies at wideout and you keep your first next season along with the high second from Minnesota

 

 

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'll confess to being influenced by Chris Simms on this, although the bits I've seen of him impress me too: 

 

 

 

I like Simms but his track record on WRs is not particularly good. He gets blown away by physical traits, to a fault. BTJ can certainly release and separate vertically, but he has question marks everywhere else. My issue with him is that he isn't an alpha at the catch point. Can a pure vertical WR with a limited route tree and without elite catch ability really be a true #1? I have my doubts.

[MasterStrategist]

49 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Minnesota's pick won't be there, I don't think. They're pretty obviously bent on trading up to get a QB.

Another possibility is stay put at 28, and move up with Car in Rd 2 (pick 39)

 

 

At 28: Leggete, Mitchell, Worthy

At 39: possibly one of the above slides here, plus potential of Ladd, Pearsall, Keon, and Franklin

 

Buf receives: pick 39, pick 101 (1st pick of 4th round)

 

Car receives: pick 60, pick 122 (4th round), and Min 2nd rounder (2025)

 

Trade value chart would be very similar, if both wish to make a deal.  Car has pick 33 too, they might be willing to move back in Rd 2 for an additional 2nd next season (proj to be fairly high)

[corta765]

3 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. 

 

That is where I am. "oh Shakir will step up and do this" "Kincaid is gonna be Kelce" "draft pick X and Z will explode" etc.. its hype and excitement but reality can be quite different. Robert Foster was nothing in 2019, it was the establishment of Beasley/Brown that allowed Josh to take a next step.  The truth is the Bills offense had a higher baseline with Diggs then without him and it is 1000% possible the hype that people keep throwing all over just fails the match up. Just because Diggs is gone doesn't mean the replacement is equal and it very well can be worse. It is great they have some nice draft capital the next two years and 2025 they have more cap space, but they currently have the worst skill group at pass catcher since 2018 and even if Josh elevates them they are starting at a tough climb.

[Dillenger4]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it:

 

"A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great.

What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career.

Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024

                    Targets          Yards      Yards/Target
Kincaid          110                 800             7.3
Shakir             80                800            10
Samuel           90                750             8.3
All RBs            80                650             8.1 

That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2

For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.

It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years.

 

All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!"

I like your enthusiasm, but this post is utter fantasy if anything.

 

Aiyuk is a real possibility - but that has already been reported at two second round pix which we do have. Moving up in the draft? Not happening the way you have it posted. No chance. As of this morning the Bills are 1 of 2 teams in on the Aiyouk signing. Time will tell if this is real.

 

if anything, our move up is for Latu if he falls to 18/20. beane will pounce on him.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Dillenger4 said:

I like your enthusiasm, but this post is utter fantasy if anything.

 

Aiyuk is a real possibility - but that has already been reported at two second round pix which we do have. Moving up in the draft? Not happening the way you have it posted. No chance. As of this morning the Bills are 1 of 2 teams in on the Aiyouk signing. Time will tell if this is real.

 

if anything, our move up is for Latu if he falls to 18/20. beane will pounce on him.

Where is the info you refer to on Aiyuk? Is there a link?

[Dillenger4]

41 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Another possibility is stay put at 28, and move up with Car in Rd 2 (pick 39)

 

 

At 28: Leggete, Mitchell, Worthy

At 39: possibly one of the above slides here, plus potential of Ladd, Pearsall, Keon, and Franklin

 

Buf receives: pick 39, pick 101 (1st pick of 4th round)

 

Car receives: pick 60, pick 122 (4th round), and Min 2nd rounder (2025)

 

Trade value chart would be very similar, if both wish to make a deal.  Car has pick 33 too, they might be willing to move back in Rd 2 for an additional 2nd next season (proj to be fairly high)

This actuallyh makes sense in the realm of possibility. But why does everyone on here think we are going to pick multiple WR's early? Heck, I'm shocked if we take one at 28 over a DE which is what we need the MOST!

Beane get's Ayouk and our draft is studs on D. SB baby!

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Where is the info you refer to on Aiyuk? Is there a link?

Yes, many. Just research it. Watch the NFL stream on twitch. Schrager said it on Friday too. Follow him on X. It's out there... rumours of course at this point but where theres smoke....

[MasterStrategist]

Just now, Dillenger4 said:

This actuallyh makes sense in the realm of possibility. But why does everyone on here think we are going to pick multiple WR's early? Heck, I'm shocked if we take one at 28 over a DE which is what we need the MOST!

Beane get's Ayouk and our draft is studs on D. SB baby!

I thought DE was tied with WR as a need, potentially higher even, prior to Diggs trade.

 

If Latu is sitting there in the 20s, he'd be a possibility.

 

Key thing, for me at least, is that we possess ZERO boundary receivers.  Yes, Samuel can bounce our there.  But he's not a full option there, he's better in the slot/moved around in formations.  Shakir is a slot only type to me, he can play boundary but is very limited downfield and against man he's underwhelming.

 

So that's why I think this is the year to double up on WR early.  Great class and meets a big need. Sets us up nicely for cap in 2025+.

 

DE to me, other than Latu is risky with either Robinson at 28.  A 2nd Rd DE won't move the needle in this draft class.  We need to count on Groot, Von, AJE, and what I hope is a post June 1st signing (similar to Floyd)

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If that is all you think we need then I don't know what to tell you.  We may have guys we could start if we HAD to, but lets not pretend we are better at each of those positions than we were last year on a team that already didn't make it past the 2nd round and had to rally just not to miss the playoffs.  

We are better at safety.  Two younger guys with experience in Rapp and Edwards for two older guys.  We are the same if not better at DT.  At LB Milano is back so better there.  At DE lost Floyd but Miller should be healed up.  On O line May lose a bit in the run game since Morse could pull well but should be better in pass pro.  Got our two RB back.  Fine at TE.  
 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

Please Beane do not trade for a WR under any circumstances.  Trade up in the draft if you have to, but it's time to finally invest in skill help at WR in the draft and develop our own young talent.

 

Lets look at our skill position drafting under Beane.

TEs:  Kincaid (1st rd 2023), Knox (3rd rd 2019), Tommy Sweeney (7th rd 2019) & Quintin Morris (UDFA).

RBs: Cook (2nd rd 2022), Moss (3rd rd 2020) & Singletary (3rd rd 2019)

WRs: Davis (4th rd 2020), Shakir (5th rd 2022), Shorter (5th rd 2022), Stevenson (6th rd 2021), Hodgins (6th rd 2020), Ray-Ray McCloud (7th rd 2018), and Austin Proehl (7th rd 2018)

 

Not surprisingly the highest drafted player is the best one in each group.  Also not surprising, is the lack of long-term success in finding good WRs.  Hard to find good ones without investing drafting capital in the position.  Even if Shakir breaks that mold and becomes Diggs 2.0, it's long past time for Beane to invest in a top WR or two.  He finally used 1st & 2nd rd picks on talent at RB and TE and both were huge upgrades over the incumbent talent. Cook finished 3rd in scrimmage yards as a 1st year starter last season and Kincaid produced more yards as rookie then Knox had in any season of his 5 year career.

 

Edited April 8 by GASabresIUFan

[nedboy7]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

who are these people? I haven't seen one and I love Legette 

 

Well I did come across 3 rankings out of like 20.  Many is pushing it!  lol. 

But I dont quite remember where.  One dude who definitely does is Brett Whitefield. 

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I like Simms but his track record on WRs is not particularly good. He gets blown away by physical traits, to a fault. BTJ can certainly release and separate vertically, but he has question marks everywhere else. My issue with him is that he isn't an alpha at the catch point. Can a pure vertical WR with a limited route tree and without elite catch ability really be a true #1? I have my doubts.

He had the 2nd best contested catch % of all the guys that are going in the first 3 rounds.  Only Odunze was better.

He's not pure vertical, he's shown he can catch underneath, make moves and pick up chunk yards.  

Edited April 8 by Warriorspikes51

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:

This actuallyh makes sense in the realm of possibility. But why does everyone on here think we are going to pick multiple WR's early? Heck, I'm shocked if we take one at 28 over a DE which is what we need the MOST!

Beane get's Ayouk and our draft is studs on D. SB baby!

Yes, many. Just research it. Watch the NFL stream on twitch. Schrager said it on Friday too. Follow him on X. It's out there... rumours of course at this point but where theres smoke....

I don't have twitch and I don't really watch TV either. A link to an article would be great. I looked it up and found nothing outside of sketchy youtube commentators, but perhaps I was using poor search terms. It's not that I don't believe you, but when people ask for a link and are told to do their own digging, it's a little frustrating.  

 

Having said all of this, it does seem a little implausible to me for the Niners to trade him. Why not keep him for next year on a very reasonable fifth-year option salary? They are a Super Bowl-caliber team and he was by pretty much every measure one of the best receivers in the NFL last season (and a second-team all-pro). A 17.9 ypr average coupled with a 71.4 percent catch percentage rate is pretty staggering.

Edited April 8 by dave mcbride

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I know enough about the cap to understand why the Bills can’t afford Aiyuk this season, which definitely puts me ahead of you on that subject. 

 

Also I understand that the trade and Aiyuk acquisitions are separate scenarios. Reread what I wrote. I’m not interested in trading up for any WR other than the top 3. Aiyuk is not feasible for cap reasons. 

 

 

How could they not afford him if they trade for him, then redo his contract and extend him and give him a $1 million base salary in year 1 of the deal? It's easily doable. The Bills need roughly $3 mil for draft picks, they have $3+ million available now plus $10+ mil coming free June 1st.  That gives them about $13 million in cap space they could work with.  Obviously they will need some for practice squad and signing players during the season due to injuries, etc but they don't need to worry about that until a week before the league year begins.  At this point it's only the Top 51 players that count toward the cap.

 

And it's not like they couldn't move some money around or potentially cut someone else to free up the space if they wanted to do it.

Edited April 8 by Big Turk

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.

 

I have no problem trading a 2nd next year with 28 to get Thomas. But I'm personally not interested in trading our 1st next year for a 2nd this year. 

 

If I'm moving 28, a 1st, and a 2nd next year - it's only in a move up for one of the Top 3 Elite Prospects WR's. In spending 28 and a 2nd next year already for Thomas, the most I'd be willing to give up is the other 2nd and maintaining our 1st in 2025. I'd probably even take 60 and our 2nd next year over giving up our 1st for another 2nd straight up.

[Dr. Who]

I do think the top 3 represent a genuine tier that has very good odds to yield WR1 with high ceilings and relatively safe floors. So, I would understand paying the price to get one, and be excited by the player. OTOH, it will cost a lot and pretty much make impossible addressing reasonable needs. I think, given where the quality is in the draft, you'd want to add OL depth, CB depth, S, DL, RB2, and ideally two WRs.

 

You might create a scenario where you could trade up for Thomas and still make that happen, but it would be difficult. Thomas is not a finished product; you're betting on traits. Right now, he's a one-trick pony, albeit it's quite a pony. I'd certainly be happy to get him, and I don't have the skepticism some bright folks on this board appear to have towards him.

 

After trading DIggs, my preference is to double dip early at receiver. I'm in the group who think that is the best way to maximize the value of Josh Allen, and the best approach to that elusive post-season success. I would not neglect D in the draft, but I still say you prioritize WR. The plan should be to get 2 in the first 45 picks, and the closer to the first 40 the better. 

 

The easiest route is to stay at #28, and trade up from #60. Or trade back from #28 and also move up from #60. I personally don't want Coleman. I could be talked into Franklin, but he's not one of my favorites. I like Mitchell more than most. The tandem I like best is Legette and McConkey. 

[Saint Doug]

7 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

Giving up a first round pick for a second round pick is NOT a good idea. You’re giving up a first rounder for a guy who is definitively a second round player. Has a team ever given up a first round for a second round?

 

I like the rest of it, but you lost me at the trade (also not completely sold on Aiyuk) 

Yeah, I’m not liking that either. Usually teams give up a pick in the same round, plus a sweetener. For example, for a 2nd, I would give up next year’s 2nd and a 4th or a 5th. 
 

What I would rather do is give up a 4th or 5th (or whatever the value chart says) and our 2024 2nd to move up to the first few picks of the 2nd. Maybe the Giants would do it. 

Edited April 8 by Saint Doug

[billybrew1]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

We'll likely have a large amount of cap space, however, so we will be able to sign good defenders. The idea is to build up the offense for THIS season and take advantage of a generational WR draft. Thomas/Aiyuk and McConkey?!? Sign me up for that. 

KC has always, always, always won with a very good too…. We don’t have at all….

[Green Lightning]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it:

 

"A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great.

What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career.

Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024

                    Targets          Yards      Yards/Target
Kincaid          110                 800             7.3
Shakir             80                800            10
Samuel           90                750             8.3
All RBs            80                650             8.1 

That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2

For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.

It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years.

 

All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!"

Do we like this? Asking for a friend...

[Coach Tuesday]

What’s better - Aiyuk at $30m/year (reportedly what he wants) or A Mitchell on a rookie contract?  As I’ve been saying - Beane should find a way to land TWO of the top 5-6 rookie WRs from this class.

[DallasBillsFan1]

I think McConkey will be gone in 1st round, prior to 28.  Personally I think Jerry Jones wants to pay us back for taking Dalton Kincaid last year and will take McConkey despite needing an OL.

[SoonerBillsFan]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it:

 

"A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great.

What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career.

Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024

                    Targets          Yards      Yards/Target
Kincaid          110                 800             7.3
Shakir             80                800            10
Samuel           90                750             8.3
All RBs            80                650             8.1 

That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2

For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.

It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years.

 

All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!"

I agree those with lower catch rates were dumped.

[ganesh]

9 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Forget about defense. If we are going to win it's on the back of the offense.  How many times do you have to see the elite D fail in the playoffs to know no matter how good they make the D it's not going to matter? McD should be able to make due with what he gets on D.

That is one of the reasons why that D has been dismantled..

[FLFan]

9 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. 

Shakir is a much more polished receiver than Foster ever was.  He was essentially a one trick pony.

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What’s better - Aiyuk at $30m/year (reportedly what he wants) or A Mitchell on a rookie contract?  As I’ve been saying - Beane should find a way to land TWO of the top 5-6 rookie WRs from this class.

No contest.  The Bills should not be looking to trade assets plus significant committed cap for Aiyuk or any other established receiver.  There is a substantial opportunity this year to get younger and better and cheaper at that spot

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

How could they not afford him if they trade for him, then redo his contract and extend him and give him a $1 million base salary in year 1 of the deal? It's easily doable. The Bills need roughly $3 mil for draft picks, they have $3+ million available now plus $10+ mil coming free June 1st.  That gives them about $13 million in cap space they could work with.  Obviously they will need some for practice squad and signing players during the season due to injuries, etc but they don't need to worry about that until a week before the league year begins.  At this point it's only the Top 51 players that count toward the cap.

 

And it's not like they couldn't move some money around or potentially cut someone else to free up the space if they wanted to do it.

 

First off the league won’t approve a trade if a player’s contract can’t fit under the cap. So we can’t get him here to rework his deal. It would have to be done in advance and that still won’t work since he’s not taking a pay cut and SF isn’t eating any of his contract. So we can’t trade for Aiyuk now.

 

Could it work post 6/1?  I don’t think the Bills want to wait that long. I doubt SF would want to either.  If they are going to trade him I’m sure that they want it done before the draft. But I think it could theoretically be done on 6/2. We could squeeze his contract under and then extend him and lower his cap hit. A 4 year, $100M extension would put him on a 5 year, $115M contract. That could put his 1st year cap hit at about $6M. That would leave the team about $7M for signing draft picks, the transition to a 53 man roster, the practice squad, replacement players and other in season moves. That wouldn’t be enough. They’d need at least $5M more for that. I’m not sure if they could find that much or not..

 

So trading for him before 6/1 is not possible. Trading for him on or after 6/2 would be very difficult if not impossible. . 

[27yanks]

As I said before, trade out of the 1st round for another 2nd rounder, two thirds. Arizona sitting there with just the right numbers.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

Or stay at #28 and draft Xavier Legette who will be the best WR in this class.

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Or stay at #28 and draft Xavier Legette who will be the best WR in this class.

Why do you argue that? Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr were more productive, put up better numbers at the combine, and come from a program (that Joe Brady made his bones at) that is now basically Wide Receiver U — LSU.

[Wizard]

Mitchell at 28.

 

If we are into Legette, Franklin, or McKonkey at it's about pick #45, then call.

 

Trading all or most of our draft capital next year seems foolish.

 

I mean no disrespect, but the Bills will not win the Super Bowl next year. Get some young receivers and some good depth/developmental pieces and grow the young talent.

 

If a top 5-7 DE, DT, OT,  CB, or Safety that is between 24-30 years old becomes available next offseason in free agency or trade, then you strike with maybe our #1 or one of our #2's.

 

Otherwise, bulls through the draft.

 

Kansas Ciry had 3 Stars on their team: Mahimes, Kelce, and Jones. They are good everywhere else.

 

We have Allen. Let's get better with the draft. If a star is available, strike in 2025 or 2026 if that is the missing or key piece needed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Wizard said:

 

 

I mean no disrespect, but the Bills will not win the Super Bowl next year. 

 

 

 

 

 

So we’ve already been eliminated?  Interesting. 

[Turbo44]

19 minutes ago, mannc said:

So we’ve already been eliminated?  Interesting. 

Damn, I guess there’s no reason to watch now? It’s like when KC traded Hill and their Super Bowl chances dissipated. 

[NickelCity]

12 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

Has a team ever given up a first round for a second round?

 

McDaniels in Denver lol. Drafted a bust CB.

[hjnick]

I do not want to trade for anyone else's headache...

 

Stay at 28 UNLESS you can go up and get one of the big 3 OR  if Brian Thomas drops down to around 20, then go up and get him.

 

IF stay at 28, Xavier Worthy.  Then in the second round, get whatever X receiver you can get...  all the rest of the picks can be defense except for 1 OL

 

We need a field stretcher.  I don't care if he only runs fly patterns all day and doesn't catch a ball, his speed has to be respected and makes problems for the defense which Shakir and the TEs can take advantage of.