The pass offense still doesn't look right...right?

[QB Bills]

Maybe it's just me and I'm romanticizing the latter Daboll years, but the passing offense still seems a bit disjointed, does it not?

 

A lot of the success seems to come down from broken down plays that Allen has to improvise on as opposed to guys being schemed open or even the odd gadget play. I agree that a big chunk of Allen's success will depend on him just not thinking and going off-script at times but I think back to some of the games he had earlier in his career and how they made everything look so easy, even against some really good defenses.

 

Keep hoping every week that they can get things together but I don't think that's happening without a new OC. On the other hand, I think Josh is that good where he can single-handedly win you the next three games to make this point moot but I would still love to see what he could do with some fresh blood in the coaching room.

[SoonerBillsFan]

The only thing that bothers me is we still seem to have 2nd half issues with moving the ball and scoring.

[SoCal Deek]

Not sure if it’s ’not right’ or if it’s what they plan. A couple of weeks ago our #2 (Gabe Davis) had zero targets. This past week our new #2 (Sherfield) had zero targets. It’s hard to believe that’s by design but then again maybe Joe Brady is playing four dimensional chess. 

[Wraith]

The passing game has been up and down this season but the timing of this post is odd. The passing game was very efficient and well-structured against the Steelers and even against the Dolphins it was moving the ball at will until the red zone.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, QB Bills said:

Maybe it's just me and I'm romanticizing the latter Daboll years, but the passing offense still seems a bit disjointed, does it not?

 

A lot of the success seems to come down from broken down plays that Allen has to improvise on as opposed to guys being schemed open or even the odd gadget play. I agree that a big chunk of Allen's success will depend on him just not thinking and going off-script at times but I think back to some of the games he had earlier in his career and how they made everything look so easy, even against some really good defenses.

 

Keep hoping every week that they can get things together but I don't think that's happening without a new OC. On the other hand, I think Josh is that good where he can single-handedly win you the next three games to make this point moot but I would still love to see what he could do with some fresh blood in the coaching room.

 

The 2020 offense is not the standard.  We were unreal that year and every team has those...come back to earth other seasons.  Doesn't mean we can reach those heights again.

Statistically across the board over the last 4 years, we are one of the best.  We are more balanced now which I think is scarier for defenses.

We can now beat you passing in the pocket, passing outside the pocket, Allen running designed/scramble and a strong running game with our RB's.  You have to defend all of that.  

 

It doesn't matter if it's broken down and improvised plays, that's Mahomes and Jackson as well.

[mjt328]

Even back in 2020-2021 during Brian Daboll, the offense was pretty streaky.  

Lots of games where they started slow, then seemingly woke up in the late 2nd or early 3rd Quarter.

 

Fans remember Daboll more fondly, because his last two games were the Perfect Game against the Patriots and 13 Seconds against the Chiefs... possibly the best streak Josh Allen has ever put together in his career.

 

The big difference I notice this year is the lack of deep ball plays.  Allen seems to just miss on anything over 30 yards that requires some arc.  

On the flip-side, the offense does have more balance between run/pass than under Daboll or Ken Dorsey.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

11 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

The only thing that bothers me is we still seem to have 2nd half issues with moving the ball and scoring.

I think a lot of that though is execution. Dropped ball, bad sack, bad penalty, etc.
 

I think the plays are there, but mistakes have tended to derail some of our second half drives. 

[Drew21PA]

Get those points when you can and win

 

repeat

[HardyBoy]

I'm not sure those broken play scrambles to the right aren't actually by design...he leaves the pocket awfully early sometimes and has receivers coming open when he does

[PromoTheRobot]

13 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

Maybe it's just me and I'm romanticizing the latter Daboll years, but the passing offense still seems a bit disjointed, does it not?

 

A lot of the success seems to come down from broken down plays that Allen has to improvise on as opposed to guys being schemed open or even the odd gadget play. I agree that a big chunk of Allen's success will depend on him just not thinking and going off-script at times but I think back to some of the games he had earlier in his career and how they made everything look so easy, even against some really good defenses.

 

Keep hoping every week that they can get things together but I don't think that's happening without a new OC. On the other hand, I think Josh is that good where he can single-handedly win you the next three games to make this point moot but I would still love to see what he could do with some fresh blood in the coaching room.

 

9 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

The only thing that bothers me is we still seem to have 2nd half issues with moving the ball and scoring.

 

I think we are getting spoiled. If it's not a perfect all-touchdowns Patriots playoff game, we think there's something wrong. 

 

We scored 31 points. That's very good.

[Steptide]

Diggs's production is still down, that leaves Shakir, harty and sherfield. Davis is so inconsistent you can't count on him to have a big game. All these guys need to step up and have big games this week. I still hate that beane didn't get Hopkins this off-season. He would've been a huge difference maker for us 

[davefan66]

Passing game just fine last week.  A fraction of an inch over the defender and Diggs scores a TD on that play, game over.  Josh made great reads vs Steelers, didn’t miss seeing guys run wide open.  Dude was on fire.   Would like to see a few more of those quick outs or maybe a slant to give us 2nd and short. 

 

My only issue is the run game calls.  People in the stands were calling our run plays before they happened.  Not all were poorly timed, but a handful put us in poor position on 2nd down and not only this last game.  Maybe they need to run outside versus straight ahead in a stacked box. Let Cook pick his hole.

[That's No Moon]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

I think we are getting spoiled. If it's not a perfect all-touchdowns Patriots playoff game, we think there's something wrong. 

 

We scored 31 points. That's very good.

31 points with two missed field goals and intentionally grinding clock for most of the second half.

 

We aren't going to score every drive fellas. Also, why empty the playbook when you're up multiple scores in a game you are largely in control of? I think there's more in there waiting to be seen.

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Not sure if it’s ’not right’ or if it’s what they plan. A couple of weeks ago our #2 (Gabe Davis) had zero targets. This past week our new #2 (Sherfield) had zero targets. It’s hard to believe that’s by design but then again maybe Joe Brady is playing four dimensional chess. 

The way I see it-

Diggs = WR1 (56 snaps)

Kincaid = WR2 (37 snaps)

Shakir = WR3 (45 snaps)

Cook/knox = next up

sherfield = blocker/last option (42 snaps)

David Edwards = Blocking TE -played 37% of the snaps-  (25 snaps)

 

knox played 42% (28 snaps) 
 

 

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

26 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

Maybe it's just me and I'm romanticizing the latter Daboll years, but the passing offense still seems a bit disjointed, does it not?

 

A lot of the success seems to come down from broken down plays that Allen has to improvise on as opposed to guys being schemed open or even the odd gadget play. I agree that a big chunk of Allen's success will depend on him just not thinking and going off-script at times but I think back to some of the games he had earlier in his career and how they made everything look so easy, even against some really good defenses.

 

Keep hoping every week that they can get things together but I don't think that's happening without a new OC. On the other hand, I think Josh is that good where he can single-handedly win you the next three games to make this point moot but I would still love to see what he could do with some fresh blood in the coaching room.

 

2020 Seahawks, Niners and Broncos games to name 3.

 

I feel you, QQB. 
 

There are great plays and moving the ball at times, but no more premiere gunslinging.

 

What a surprise it would be if it popped up this weekend.

 

Either way, Go Bills!

 

 

[oldmanfan]

I think we need to drop the concept of #1 Wr, #2 WR, etc.  It seems clear Brady designs plays to try and get specific guys open depending on the defense.  One play it might be a TE, one play Diggs, another Shakir.  And so on.

[SoCal Deek]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The way I see it-

Diggs = WR1 (56 snaps)

Kincaid = WR2 (37 snaps)

Shakir = WR3 (45 snaps)

Cook/knox = next up

sherfield = blocker/last option (42 snaps)

David Edwards = Blocking TE -played 37% of the snaps-  (25 snaps)

 

knox played 42% (28 snaps) 
 

 

 

I’m guessing that’s accurate but so is my statement on targets. The Bills passing offense is essentially ignoring the #2 WR. I’m not saying that’s good or bad, but it’s interesting to see how an offense can function with ten men. 

[zow2]

I like when Allen moves around and either scrambles or makes a play on the run.  That's when he's at his best.

 

He's not Jared Goff.  When he sits there in the pocket looking around, sometimes he tends to take too long and throws an inaccurate pass or one of those 100mph fastballs to a guys standing 7 yards in front of him.

[The Jokeman]

46 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

Maybe it's just me and I'm romanticizing the latter Daboll years, but the passing offense still seems a bit disjointed, does it not?

 

A lot of the success seems to come down from broken down plays that Allen has to improvise on as opposed to guys being schemed open or even the odd gadget play. I agree that a big chunk of Allen's success will depend on him just not thinking and going off-script at times but I think back to some of the games he had earlier in his career and how they made everything look so easy, even against some really good defenses.

 

Keep hoping every week that they can get things together but I don't think that's happening without a new OC. On the other hand, I think Josh is that good where he can single-handedly win you the next three games to make this point moot but I would still love to see what he could do with some fresh blood in the coaching room.

Cole Beasley was an elite slot WR when he first joined us. Toss in Diggs was probably at his peek performance age and John Brown offered some serious speed to kill defenses. As players have changed things aren't the same. Yet think the biggest thing is Josh, as he just needs to go with the easy stuff that's open and all too often he doesn't. Not sure if coaching or Josh just wanting to show more or the opposition just covering things better. That said I like our running game more than ever as Cook seems like can get between 5-10 yards every time he touches the ball, Josh  can run with the best of them. Now we just need to settle in and take what the D gives us and think we can beat anybody. As Kincaid has been a mismatch for everyone and Shakir stepping up when Diggs isn't open. 

[HappyDays]

Well yeah, we only have one WR on the roster that can play outside at an above average level. And that WR is not quite as elite as he been in the past (although looking closer to that level over the past two games). This conversation was done to death in the offseason and now we are left with the reality that it is hard to be a consistently elite passing offense without that #2. Allen makes some drives happen all on his own, but some drives are going to stall out because of our pass catchers. Kincaid has shown himself to be the most capable of all our options behind Diggs so we will really have to rely on him down the stretch. We will need Shakir and/or Harty to make an explosive play or two over the course of a game. We are trying to overcome a fundamental flaw in our roster construction so everyone else has to rise to the occasion to make up for it.

[HappyDays]

51 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

We scored 31 points. That's very good.

 

It is but we keep hitting these offensive lulls in the middle of games that allow inferior opponents to stay in the game or get back into the game. It has happened in every game since we blew out the Jets.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

It is but we keep hitting these offensive lulls in the middle of games that allow inferior opponents to stay in the game or get back into the game. It has happened in every game since we blew out the Jets.

 

All teams do. Some even more! It's the NFL. Everyone is good.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I think a lot of that though is execution. Dropped ball, bad sack, bad penalty, etc.
 

I think the plays are there, but mistakes have tended to derail some of our second half drives. 

Maybe, but overall it seems the 2nd half adjustments aren't there.

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

I think we are getting spoiled. If it's not a perfect all-touchdowns Patriots playoff game, we think there's something wrong. 

 

We scored 31 points. That's very good.

Agreed 31 is very good. It just seems out OC isn't as good at 2nd half adjustments.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

.....and we are going against a team that will be all over our receivers this game both legally and mostly illegally.

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

I still want to see Allen and J. Brady concentrate more on the short passing game.  The Bills did at the onset of the Steelers game but kinda went away from it.  You have a ton of options at 2nd and five and 3rd and 1....not so much on 2nd and 10 or 3rd and 10.  More dinks (or taking what the defense gives you.) 

 

Most of the time I feel like Allen gets "Big Play" drunk and that's how the Bills end up in those lulls not moving the ball effectively and not scoring.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Not sure if it’s ’not right’ or if it’s what they plan. A couple of weeks ago our #2 (Gabe Davis) had zero targets. This past week our new #2 (Sherfield) had zero targets. It’s hard to believe that’s by design but then again maybe Joe Brady is playing four dimensional chess. 

I think part of that is that neither of those players have been reliably good this year. That's to be expected to an expect from Sherfield, but Davis has clearly been in a down year. 

 

The Bills have been doing a lot of option routes in their scheme, which means that instead of relying on split second timing the WR and QB are expected to read defenses. For whatever reason, Josh and Gabe have just not been on the same page this year. We've seen that trust level repeatedly with Diggs, and building with Kincaid and Shakir but it seems to have regressed with Gabe and he hasn't had the time with Sherfield and I think that's hurting some of the passing game.

 

Bills need a new WR 2 this offseason.

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, QB Bills said:

Maybe it's just me and I'm romanticizing the latter Daboll years, but the passing offense still seems a bit disjointed, does it not?

 

A lot of the success seems to come down from broken down plays that Allen has to improvise on as opposed to guys being schemed open or even the odd gadget play. I agree that a big chunk of Allen's success will depend on him just not thinking and going off-script at times but I think back to some of the games he had earlier in his career and how they made everything look so easy, even against some really good defenses.

 

Keep hoping every week that they can get things together but I don't think that's happening without a new OC. On the other hand, I think Josh is that good where he can single-handedly win you the next three games to make this point moot but I would still love to see what he could do with some fresh blood in the coaching room.

 

I think 2 things:

 

1) Bills fans are spoiled. By objective measures this has been and continues to be an elite offense.

2) That said the offense is a work in process due to the change in coordinators. I expect the offense to look more coherent next year after Brady has the offseason to make it his own.

 

1 hour ago, Wraith said:

The passing game has been up and down this season but the timing of this post is odd. The passing game was very efficient and well-structured against the Steelers and even against the Dolphins it was moving the ball at will until the red zone.

 

Yes. The passing game is improving. It's trending in the right direction. Brady is incrementally adjusting things and Kincaid and Shakir are becoming bigger factors.

 

IMO the thing that will make the passing game perform and look efficient is for Josh to continue to take the open layups. He's been getting better in this area since the Dorsey firing. Josh is a very underrated short thrower. He can throw wrist flick darts all day long if he stays disciplined. He can manage the short horizontal passing game very well and now that we've sufficiently replaced Beasley I expect to see higher completion percentages and fewer interceptions as we did in 2020 when Josh completed 69.2% of his passes and had an interception percentage of 1.7% (this year it's 3.1%, the highest since he was a rookie).

 

The Bills offense is trending up and just in the nick of time because it looks like we'll need to win in a shootout to advance past KC.

 

13 minutes ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

I still want to see Allen and J. Brady concentrate more on the short passing game.  The Bills did at the onset of the Steelers game but kinda went away from it. Most of the time I feel like Allen gets "Big Play" drunk and that's how the Bills end up in those lulls not moving the ball effectively and not scoring.

 

We have a winner.

 

People get confused by the phrase "Let Josh be Josh."

 

If it means running the ball... yes.

 

If it means spraying low-percentage throws downfield... no.

 

As a passer, Josh is most effective when he's disciplined and works short to long.

 

[finn]

I just wonder how Baltimore's receivers always appear to be wide open, much like Kelce in past years, while our receivers are open only because they're terrific route runners (Diggs) or someone falls down (Davis). Maybe they have a better coordinator.

 

My take is that Allen has made a one-man receiving corps look average or even above average at times over the past six years. Thank god Shakir is developing and Kincaid looks good. With Diggs evidently fading, the cupboard is otherwise empty. 

[Brandon]

It's the near total ineffectiveness of the 'other' outside WR opposite Diggs. 

[MPL]

Why do we have such a selective memory about Daboll? The reason that 2021 Divisional Round game against the Chiefs was so epic was because the Bills had to come from behind because the offense hit a lull in the middle of the game. 

[Heavy Kevi]

It's definitely not right.

 

I'm not really sure how I feel about Brady calling the plays.

 

We are winning, but if we weren't winning, would we be ok with the offense?

 

I don't think so. It's great that they are getting it done but how in the sam hell did diggs just disappear after being great for 3 and a half years?

 

Timing is off, and moving the ball at will without scoring is not moving the ball at will.

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

I still want to see Allen and J. Brady concentrate more on the short passing game.  The Bills did at the onset of the Steelers game but kinda went away from it.  You have a ton of options at 2nd and five and 3rd and 1....not so much on 2nd and 10 or 3rd and 10.  More dinks (or taking what the defense gives you.) 

 

Most of the time I feel like Allen gets "Big Play" drunk and that's how the Bills end up in those lulls not moving the ball effectively and not scoring.

 

It's somewhat of a myth on here that short passes are automatically available. That is not always the case. Allen failing to take profits was absolutely not the issue against the Steelers. I've watched the all-22. He was processing the field and reading the defense as well as he has all season. People on here think Cook/Kincaid/Shakir are just automatically getting open underneath... Trust me, those reads are often times covered up perfectly.

 

Against zone defense I would say the underneath options tend to be there. But defenses are playing a lot of man against us lately because they know they can get away with it... And if you watch the tape you will often times see those supposedly always open underneath options getting zero separation. If we had a true "take the top off the defense" option we would probably see more favorable looks. But with the personnel that we have it is going to be tough sledding moving the ball down the field consistently. Luckily we have one of the toughest QBs in NFL history.

[Chicken Boo]

It's inconsistent.

 

One thing I did notice is that Allen seemed to make a concerted effort to stay in the pocket instead of scrambling out of clean ones.  

[2003Contenders]

Note also that against both Miami and Pittsburgh they blitzed at a heavy rate (over 50%). It is hard to get the ball downfield in those situations.

[QB Bills]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

2020 Seahawks, Niners and Broncos games to name 3.

 

I feel you, QQB. 
 

There are great plays and moving the ball at times, but no more premiere gunslinging.

 

What a surprise it would be if it popped up this weekend.

 

Either way, Go Bills!

 

 

This is exactly what I was thinking also. Late 2020 before they got into the playoffs was the best the offense has ever looked imo, perhaps even including the playoffs the year after. The timing and precision mixed with the creativity, it looked equally as fun as it looked unstoppable.

 

Since then, with the odd outlier game here and there, it seems like we do our best off-script and are hoping for the best.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Maybe, but overall it seems the 2nd half adjustments aren't there.

Agreed 31 is very good. It just seems out OC isn't as good at 2nd half adjustments.  

Considering just the Steelers game, we only punted once in the second half. That too was probably only because Knox dropped a wide open pass, and Josh took a weirdly bad sack, so we were sitting at like 3rd and 17. 
 

I really think if you want to pinpoint the main issue it’s that the players need to come out of halftime with more focus and energy and urgency. Start as fast as you do at the beginning of the game. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, QB Bills said:

Maybe it's just me and I'm romanticizing the latter Daboll years, but the passing offense still seems a bit disjointed, does it not?

 

A lot of the success seems to come down from broken down plays that Allen has to improvise on as opposed to guys being schemed open or even the odd gadget play. I agree that a big chunk of Allen's success will depend on him just not thinking and going off-script at times but I think back to some of the games he had earlier in his career and how they made everything look so easy, even against some really good defenses.

 

Keep hoping every week that they can get things together but I don't think that's happening without a new OC. On the other hand, I think Josh is that good where he can single-handedly win you the next three games to make this point moot but I would still love to see what he could do with some fresh blood in the coaching room.

I think it's just you, and you're romanticizing.  

 

I think we all do it - we tend to remember, or even imagine that we remember, a time when the passing offense exploded week after week.  Well, there was no such time.  Nobody's getting 300+ yards, week after week.   I mean, sure, maybe 35 years ago when the Chargers were really explosive, maybe the greatest show on turf, maybe Peyton with two Hall of Fame wideouts for five years, but even those teams, if you look back, struggled.  

 

The defenses have caught up with the passing offenses.   That's another factor. 

 

The Bills were 8th in the league in passing yards per game this season, 20 yards per game behind the Dolphins at #1.  Dolphins did with Tyreek Hill, who's easily the biggest threat in the league, and Waddle and Gesicki.  Trade Diggs even up for Hill, and the Bills would have been near the very top and the Dolphins would have been 8th.  

 

The reality is that the Bills get receivers open from time to time, and Allen usually finds them and hits them.   That's about as much as any team can expect.   If you can have two or three plays a game like Allen hitting Knox and Kincaid for touchdown, picture-perfect passing execution, that's a good game.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's somewhat of a myth on here that short passes are automatically available. That is not always the case. Allen failing to take profits was absolutely not the issue against the Steelers. I've watched the all-22. He was processing the field and reading the defense as well as he has all season. People on here think Cook/Kincaid/Shakir are just automatically getting open underneath... Trust me, those reads are often times covered up perfectly.

 

Against zone defense I would say the underneath options tend to be there. But defenses are playing a lot of man against us lately because they know they can get away with it... And if you watch the tape you will often times see those supposedly always open underneath options getting zero separation. If we had a true "take the top off the defense" option we would probably see more favorable looks. But with the personnel that we have it is going to be tough sledding moving the ball down the field consistently. Luckily we have one of the toughest QBs in NFL history.

First, thanks for the analysis.  I don't watch and evaluate the all-22, but what you describe is exactly how the game looks to me.  And although the Bills don't have elite receivers (Chase, Jefferson, Hill, or a few other names) to really extend the field, it's a good receiving group.  As I said, put Tyreek on the Bills, and it's a different story. 

 

But second, and it really isn't the point of the thread, the bolded part is what made me feel so good about the passing game last week.  Allen was in complete control.   He seemed to know, play after play, what he had and where the play was.   His execution of the passing game was overshadowed by the TD run and other runs, but his work as a true field general was what impressed me. 

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

I think we are getting spoiled. If it's not a perfect all-touchdowns Patriots playoff game, we think there's something wrong. 

 

We scored 31 points. That's very good.

should have been 37

[Starr Almighty]

3 hours ago, QB Bills said:

Maybe it's just me and I'm romanticizing the latter Daboll years, but the passing offense still seems a bit disjointed, does it not?

 

A lot of the success seems to come down from broken down plays that Allen has to improvise on as opposed to guys being schemed open or even the odd gadget play. I agree that a big chunk of Allen's success will depend on him just not thinking and going off-script at times but I think back to some of the games he had earlier in his career and how they made everything look so easy, even against some really good defenses.

 

Keep hoping every week that they can get things together but I don't think that's happening without a new OC. On the other hand, I think Josh is that good where he can single-handedly win you the next three games to make this point moot but I would still love to see what he could do with some fresh blood in the coaching room.

The 3 TD passes were on time this week. In the structure of the play (from the pocket). Why did you pick this game to post this?

Edited January 18 by Starr Almighty