Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.

[PaattMaann]

9 hours ago, uninja said:

how do you “manipulate” a coin toss?

 

 I think it looks a lot like this

 

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Can't argue against any of that. From a workplace point of view, I would argue the manager has now given the tools to the workers to complete the job to the best of their ability; now it is time for them to execute their tasks. Whereas before the workers were being hamstrung by the manager's requirements - receivers ending up in the same zone, poor play calls at key times, seemingly struggling to manage the QB's mental state. 

 

I do part of the issue is Brady is having to work with Dorsey's playbook whilst slowing implementing his own style. Think is was Fournette who said he has never seen something so complicated when he first joined. 

 

Does this all mean I have faith in the offense? No, sadly not. Other than the Cowboys - which was a very different approach - and the Eagles, it has not looked really good since the home win against the Dolphins. If it clicks, then the Bills could finally win a Superbowl. If it doesn't we could be sitting here next week with nothing to talk about but the close season.

 

Roger

 

Brady could easily add plays however.  It's ridiculous to think that he can't.  Let's not forget however that he's novice, inexperienced, and OJT.  

 

Think about all that was said that was positive about Dorsey when he replaced Daboll.  And that is no minor reference to the oft-repeated notion that Allen wanted him as OC.  

 

But the point is that people are saying that the offense has improved, whatever the circumstances, when the opposite is the case.  

 

They're/we're also saying that the defense has improved, and while it has not gotten worse, that also isn't true.  

 

How long are false and/or flimsy narratives going to carry McD's water.  

 

I'm not seeing a ton of evidence that the issues you cited are gone despite unsubstantiated narratives simply claiming that they are.  

 

As to "managing the QB's (Allen's) mental state, you won't find a bigger critic than me given that he's had three different OCs in as many seasons and may have a fourth next season as well.  

 

Whose fault is that?  Obviously not McD's, he's only the head coach.  It can't be, the narratives don't support that.  

 

The masses will figure it out at some point.  In the meantime, more damage to the QB's mental state, including no consistency from season to season, will occur.  

 

Meanwhile, that QB, with nothing but his physical and mental talents individually carries this team.  

 

The impact of this game is much bigger than people realize.  

 

BTW, Davis may not play.  According to most, his absence should benefit the team.  That should be interesting, the fallout from that too.  

 

 

Edited January 11 by PBF81

[PBF81]

38 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Says there’s a 40% chance of snow from 1-2 and windy the rest of the game. It’s said that most of the week.

 

The forecast that I just looked at says this;

 

Lake-effect snow and intense squalls, accumulating an additional 6-10 inches; windy and colder

 

High 24, Windchill -1, 30 mph winds

 

We're 72 hours from game time

 

 

[UKBillFan]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Roger

 

Brady could easily add plays however.  It's ridiculous to think that he can't.  Let's not forget however that he's novice, inexperienced, and OJT.  

 

Think about all that was said that was positive about Dorsey when he replaced Daboll.  And that is no minor reference to the oft-repeated notion that Allen wanted him as OC.  

 

But the point is that people are saying that the offense has improved, whatever the circumstances, when the opposite is the case.  

 

They're/we're also saying that the defense has improved, and while it has not gotten worse, that also isn't true.  

 

How long are false and/or flimsy narratives going to carry McD's water.  

 

I'm not seeing a ton of evidence that the issues you cited are gone despite unsubstantiated narratives simply claiming that they are.  

 

As to "managing the QB's (Allen's) mental state, you won't find a bigger critic than me given that he's had three different OCs in as many seasons and may have a fourth next season as well.  

 

Whose fault is that?  Obviously not McD's, he's only the head coach.  It can't be, the narratives don't support that.  

 

The masses will figure it out at some point.  In the meantime, more damage to the QB's mental state, including no consistency from season to season, will occur.  

 

Meanwhile, that QB, with nothing but his physical and mental talents individually carries this team.  

 

The impact of this game is much bigger than people realize.  

 

 

 

This may get downvotes but if the Bills lose to the Steelers I will be an advocate of moving on from McDermott. And it's partially down to something you refer to above - the churn at OC not helping the key player on the team. Get in someone with OC experience as Head Coach and we can at least hope for some stability, even if the churn at OC continues. 

 

Getting past the Steelers then losing to the Chiefs or Ravens is uncertain ground, as I think under anyone they would be 50/50 match ups which could go either way. But I am with you that having a defensive minded head coach, as well as he has done for the Bills, is not the best thing for the franchise.

[PaattMaann]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The forecast that I just looked at says this;

 

Lake-effect snow and intense squalls, accumulating an additional 6-10 inches; windy and colder

 

High 24, Windchill -1, 30 mph winds

 

We're 72 hours from game time

 

 

 

dont trust accuweather for lake effect snow events

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The forecast that I just looked at says this;

 

Lake-effect snow and intense squalls, accumulating an additional 6-10 inches; windy and colder

 

High 24, Windchill -1, 30 mph winds

 

We're 72 hours from game time

 

 

I have been seeing wildly different reports from various sources. I assume that we will have an idea with 24 hours to go, but that variation is troubling to me moreso than the weather. If we know, we can plan

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

This may get downvotes but if the Bills lose to the Steelers I will be an advocate of moving on from McDermott. And it's partially down to something you refer to above - the churn at OC not helping the key player on the team. Get in someone with OC experience as Head Coach and we can at least hope for some stability, even if the churn at OC continues. 

 

Getting past the Steelers then losing to the Chiefs or Ravens is uncertain ground, as I think under anyone they would be 50/50 match ups which could go either way. But I am with you that having a defensive minded head coach, as well as he has done for the Bills, is not the best thing for the franchise.

 

Allow me to ask as well, why is it that you think that there's a "churn" at OC that is preventing the optimization of the "key player" on the team?  

 

Even Daboll's credentials coming here were incredibly questionable.  

 

 

8 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

dont trust accuweather for lake effect snow events

 

I'm not sure anything can be trusted for lake effect snow events.  

 

Remember that monster storm we had what, six or seven years ago maybe.  

 

The computer weather models suck these days anyway.  

 

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The forecast that I just looked at says this;

 

Lake-effect snow and intense squalls, accumulating an additional 6-10 inches; windy and colder

 

High 24, Windchill -1, 30 mph winds

 

We're 72 hours from game time

 

 

In Orchard Park? What site? 

[PaattMaann]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Allow me to ask as well, why is it that you think that there's a "churn" at OC that is preventing the optimization of the "key player" on the team?  

 

Even Daboll's credentials coming here were incredibly questionable.  

 

 

 

I'm not sure anything can be trusted for lake effect snow events.  

 

Remember that monster storm we had what, six or seven years ago maybe.  

 

The computer weather models suck these days anyway.  

 

 

 

Local weather guys are usually pretty accurate 2 days out. Ill trust what Pat Hammer says tomorrow about Sundays weather...but obviously, NO ONE knows what lake effect bands do on that day. Just gotta show up and play ball. 

[MasterStrategist]

9 hours ago, zow2 said:

 

At least the game i’m recalling I believe the Bills deferred and kicked with the wind in the First Qtr, opponent had wind in 2nd Qtr.  
Then Opponent kicked off gave us the wind in the 3rd and they had it again for the 4th.

I don’t like that strategy.

So it was a McDermott’s plan to force the opponent to go into strong winds on their opening drive. hoping to get the ball back quickly and get an early lead. So not really manipulating, just dumb decision in my opinion 

Gotcha.  Yeah I agree it's definitely a "strategy"....and I could see benefits to both.

 

Kicking with the wind to start:  home crowd fired up, quick stop and hopefully get a short field, score and play with the lead/momentum.  Everything you said above, isn't a bad strategy either.

 

Will see how Coach handles this game.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

In Orchard Park? What site? 

Accuweather says lake effect snow,weather.com says a small 1-2 inch type snowstorm, weather.gov says snow showers which id assume is even less than that 

 

if there was that serious of a chance for a lake effect snowstorm I think there’d be murmurs about moving the game imo 

Edited January 11 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[fergie's ire]

If it does snow, I think that will be a situation where it'll be much better to have Brady instead of Dorsey as OC.  Over the last year or so, and specifically in the "I don't watch that much film" quote, I've heard Allen said that they don't want to focus on what the other team does.  The Bills offense should just impose its will regardless of what the D is doing. Based on what I've seen on the field, I'm guessing that came from Dorsey and Allen was repeating it.  Dorsey seems much more willing to adjust based on the situation (eg, running the ball a million times because Dallas can't stop it).  I remember after the wildcard game last year, a Bengals player was mocking the Bills offense because they were running routes that are hard to run in the snow.  Keep it simple in the snow.  It's hard to run a double move, but it's hard to defend just a simple in cut because the offense player knows where he is going and doesn't have to try and cut as abruptly.  As someone pointed out, the Kelly Bills used to score a ton in snowy games.  Offense can be really effective.  The Bengal's point was that everyone knows the kind of routes you need to run on snow and the Bills just refused to run them.  That seems very Dorsey-esque to me.

[PBF81]

11 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

In Orchard Park? What site? 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/orchard-park/14127/daily-weather-forecast/2128285

 

 

[Negan]

11 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

In Orchard Park? What site? 

Weather underground said 1-2 feet... Jeez if that's the case I'm going to be in the comfort lot till Tuesday lol.

[Not at the table Karlos]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/orchard-park/14127/daily-weather-forecast/2128285

 

 

It’s crazy how different each weather site is. I will say accuweather has said I was in middle of a massive rain storm when it didn’t rain anywhere near there the week before or in the week after. 
 

looks like I can wait to buy tickets love snow games 

Edited January 11 by Not at the table Karlos

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, Bob in STL said:

The Marv/Kelly era Bills did this at home several times in bad weather with good results. 

Cardinals game iirc

[Goin Breakdown]

What makes me a little nervous was the talk about how Buffalo wasnt prepared for the weather vs cinci last year. So here we are again about to play another snowy playoff game. Pittsburg doesn't worry me on their own. This game will come down to luck and missed opportunities. 

[Matt_In_NH]

44 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The forecast that I just looked at says this;

 

Lake-effect snow and intense squalls, accumulating an additional 6-10 inches; windy and colder

 

High 24, Windchill -1, 30 mph winds

 

We're 72 hours from game time

 

 

Go away

[Not at the table Karlos]

11 minutes ago, Negan said:

Weather underground said 1-2 feet... Jeez if that's the case I'm going to be in the comfort lot till Tuesday lol.

I walk a little over a mile to stadium but rarely hit traffic in or out. Idk if I want to do that walk with my deep snow boots as they’re pretty heavy.

[Billsfanatic8989]

If Allen can't throw in that type of weather, it plays right into the hands of the Steelers. They prefer to run the ball and play D. 

 

That could be a problem for our offense.

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

24 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

If it does snow, I think that will be a situation where it'll be much better to have Brady instead of Dorsey as OC.  Over the last year or so, and specifically in the "I don't watch that much film" quote, I've heard Allen said that they don't want to focus on what the other team does.  The Bills offense should just impose its will regardless of what the D is doing. Based on what I've seen on the field, I'm guessing that came from Dorsey and Allen was repeating it.  Dorsey seems much more willing to adjust based on the situation (eg, running the ball a million times because Dallas can't stop it).  I remember after the wildcard game last year, a Bengals player was mocking the Bills offense because they were running routes that are hard to run in the snow.  Keep it simple in the snow.  It's hard to run a double move, but it's hard to defend just a simple in cut because the offense player knows where he is going and doesn't have to try and cut as abruptly.  As someone pointed out, the Kelly Bills used to score a ton in snowy games.  Offense can be really effective.  The Bengal's point was that everyone knows the kind of routes you need to run on snow and the Bills just refused to run them.  That seems very Dorsey-esque to me.

Bit of this is substantiated.  I forget where I heard but someone commented that Brady is always looking for Waldo when he game preps.  Waldo is the guy they are gonna target.  In the dallas game Waldo was Bell I believe, and they ran right at him.  I think Apple was waldo against Miami because as soon as Diggs had one on one with him they took the shot,TD to Sherfield was targeting him as well.  This game I think one of the LBs will be Waldo and I think Cook and the DKs get going.  

[UKBillFan]

49 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Allow me to ask as well, why is it that you think that there's a "churn" at OC that is preventing the optimization of the "key player" on the team?  

 

Even Daboll's credentials coming here were incredibly questionable.  

 

 

 

I'm not sure anything can be trusted for lake effect snow events.  

 

Remember that monster storm we had what, six or seven years ago maybe.  

 

The computer weather models suck these days anyway.  

 

 

 

A higher degree of competence from Dorsey may have reduced the immediate churn somewhat, but having a defensive Head Coach means OC's have to look elsewhere for HC opportunities without having an offensive minded head coach in place to keep things ticking over.

[H2o]

This weather forecast makes me a bit nervous. 

[Gman10]

48 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Local weather guys are usually pretty accurate 2 days out. 

Said no one ever...🤣

Edited January 11 by Gman10

[North Buffalo]

Just play the hand you are dealt

 

[Warriorspikes51]

If we need to, Allen can run 20 times. I'd also like to see Fournette more involved this week 

[Warriorspikes51]

Allen has 63 carries over 7 games with Joe Brady, including 15 last week.  

 

 

Hopefully the team is reminded how they got physically man handled by the Bengals to end last season and comes out playing mean 

Edited January 11 by Warriorspikes51

[Low Positive]

There seems to be a narrative building around here that Pittsbugh is a run-first team and has a better rushing attack than the Bills. Let's take a look at the numbers, shall we?

 

2023 Stats

 

STEELERS: 2010 RUSHING YARDS ON 487 ATTEMPTS

BILLS: 2212 RUSHING YARDS ON 512 ATTEMPTS

 

Your 2023 Buffalo Bills have the 5th most rushing attempts in the NFL. The Bills also rank 8th in YPC. In other words, the Bills have been a better rushing team than the Steelers this year. I know that doesn't fit historical reputations or the popular narrative, but those are the facts. 

[RunTheBall]

The weather talk here has reached peak BBFS levels. I’m getting depressed reading the constant belly-aching.

 

Who cares if it’s windy? We don’t have a downfield passing offense anymore. We have a short/intermediate passing game with a strong running game. That’s PERFECT for windy conditions. We have JOSH ALLEN who has already proved again and again that he can throw in the wind. Why is everyone so worried about that?

 

Play the run first, double Pickens, confuse Rudolph (who McD should own)

 

Run the ball, use Josh’s legs, emphasize the short/intermediate game, get Diggs involved early.

 

W.

 

 

[Johnnycage46]

4 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Allen has 63 carries over 7 games with Joe Brady, including 15 last week.  

 

 

Hopefully the team is reminded how they got physically man handled by the Bengals to end last season and comes out playing mean 

 

I think Dawkins even talked about how physical Pitt was in the preseason game this year (McD also mentioned it).  I know it's just preseason, but they sound like that game left an impression on them so hopefully they play with a chip and have an aggressive/physical mindset.

[Warriorspikes51]

 

[Roundybout]

30 minutes ago, H2o said:

This weather forecast makes me a bit nervous. 

Its really starting to look like a major lake effect event 

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, Low Positive said:

There seems to be a narrative building around here that Pittsbugh is a run-first team and has a better rushing attack than the Bills. Let's take a look at the numbers, shall we?

 

2023 Stats

 

STEELERS: 2010 RUSHING YARDS ON 487 ATTEMPTS

BILLS: 2212 RUSHING YARDS ON 512 ATTEMPTS

 

Your 2023 Buffalo Bills have the 5th most rushing attempts in the NFL. The Bills also rank 8th in YPC. In other words, the Bills have been a better rushing team than the Steelers this year. I know that doesn't fit historical reputations or the popular narrative, but those are the facts. 

These types of stats can be skewed when you have a running QB

[BrettFavre]

5 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Idk if new thread worthy but feel like Hines would've been huge in this brady offense, mainly in passing game. 

Ty Johnson has looked pretty good andvis way less talented

I don't think Ty is a step down from Hines at all. He ran a 4.45 40 out of Maryland and can catch and all just fine. Plus he packs significantly more punch inside than Hines.

 

Ty is the biggest injury story to me. He had the juice whenever he gets the ball for us and with this shaping up to be a snow game, we need a versatile RB2 to share the load.

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

These types of stats can be skewed when you have a running QB

Who cares who gets the yards? Do people denigrate Baltimore's rushing stats because Lamar is their leading rusher? Lamar accounted for 31% of their total rushing yards. Josh is the Bills second-leading rusher and accounted for 24% of the Bills' rushing yards. And yet somehow, Josh running is proof that the Bills can't run the ball while Lamar's running is what makes him MVP. 

[Einstein]

14 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

There seems to be a narrative building around here that Pittsbugh is a run-first team and has a better rushing attack than the Bills. Let's take a look at the numbers, shall we?

 

2023 Stats

 

STEELERS: 2010 RUSHING YARDS ON 487 ATTEMPTS

BILLS: 2212 RUSHING YARDS ON 512 ATTEMPTS

 

Your 2023 Buffalo Bills have the 5th most rushing attempts in the NFL. The Bills also rank 8th in YPC. In other words, the Bills have been a better rushing team than the Steelers this year. I know that doesn't fit historical reputations or the popular narrative, but those are the facts. 

 

Just FYI, that script has seem to flip (for the Steelers) over the past three games.

 

Last week: 155 rushing yards

Week before: 202 rushing yards

Week before that: 113 rushing yards

 

They seem to have found something in their rushing game over the past three weeks that they didn’t have most of the season.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

56 minutes ago, H2o said:

This weather forecast makes me a bit nervous. 

 

I'm more worried about getting in and getting out. Last thing I need is getting stranded in my parking spot.

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

The forecast that I just looked at says this;

 

Lake-effect snow and intense squalls, accumulating an additional 6-10 inches; windy and colder

 

High 24, Windchill -1, 30 mph winds

 

We're 72 hours from game time

 

 

 

 

[Magox]

37 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Allen has 63 carries over 7 games with Joe Brady, including 15 last week.  

 

 

Hopefully the team is reminded how they got physically man handled by the Bengals to end last season and comes out playing mean 

For me, that’s the key to the game.   The mentality has got to be one of toughness and nastiness on both sides of the ball.  Pound the rock, and be highly efficient in the play action pass game.

 

Josh can throw 20 yarders effectively in 20-30 mph winds, Rudolph cannot and that is one of the advantages.

 

The other advantage is Allen’s ability to run it very effectively.   They should look for him to run it 10-15 this game.

 

At the end of the day the game will be won in the trenches and Allen’s unique abilities.

[Low Positive]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

Just FYI, that script has seem to flip (for the Steelers) over the past three games.

 

Last week: 155 rushing yards

Week before: 202 rushing yards

Week before that: 113 rushing yards

 

They seem to have found something in their rushing game over the past three weeks that they didn’t have most of the season.

 

It's all about matchups. That was against two pretty bad run Ds in Seattle and Cincinnati and the Ravens' second and third-stingers. And that 113 on Cincinnati was actually below the Bengals average of giving up 126.2 rushing YPG. To prove that point, before this current run back when Kenny Pickett was playing, the Steelers beat the Bengals in Cincinnati 16-10 on 11/26 in Jake Browning's first game as the starter. The Steelers had 153 yards rushing in that game. So I would argue that they didn't find anything so much as they got favorable matchups for three straight weeks to close out the season. To that point (again), Pacheco had 130 against the Bengals on New Year's Eve in by far his best performance of the year.