Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.

[Mr Info]

Due to other circumstances, we have to fly early Sun morning. We have one stop and may have a couple extra seats if delays occur. Planned the trip to return on Jan 22 so we can see both games.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

11 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

You can't play scared or not to lose. When you are the better team you stay aggressive and put the inferior team away early. You have to trust the players to execute. My real concern is the weather might negate aggressive play calling. 

Can’t play scared, but gotta play smart. That means taking the check downs, throwing the ball away if everything is covered, and kicking FGs when you can get points on the board. 
 

[Low Positive]

Just for some context, Najee Harris has two games with over 100 yards rushing. They happen to be in the last two weeks, but two weeks ago it was against the Seahawks who have the second worst run defense in the league and last week it was against the Ravens backups. You can also run on the Steelers, who actually give up more yards per game on the ground than the Bills.

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I totally disagree.

 

Using selective stats during horrible conditions, we couldn't run either.

 

Bills had 9 first down throwing versus 1 for NE.  Bills had 1 1st down rushing.  Jones had 19 total yards passing versus 145 for Josh.  Most of the Bills throws were late in the game right into the wind and Patriots could concentrate on defending the pass.

 

 

If you’re talking about the wind game, the lesson that I took from that is to throw the ball responsibly and don’t be so scared of the wind. 

[Negan]

13 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Just for some context, Najee Harris has two games with over 100 yards rushing. They happen to be in the last two weeks, but two weeks ago it was against the Seahawks who have the second worst run defense in the league and last week it was against the Ravens backups. You can also run on the Steelers, who actually give up more yards per game on the ground than the Bills.

Dude I had Najee Harris in fantasy, he stinks, gang tackle, we put 2 touchdowns on the board early on Pitt and they'll be ready for the plane home.

[CaptnCoke11]

2 minutes ago, Negan said:

Dude I had Najee Harris in fantasy, he stinks, gang tackle, we put 2 touchdowns on the board early on Pitt and they'll be ready for the plane home.

They have to get out to a nice lead on this team.  Make Rudolph throw in the winds

[Gman10]

16 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Just for some context, Najee Harris has two games with over 100 yards rushing. They happen to be in the last two weeks, but two weeks ago it was against the Seahawks who have the second worst run defense in the league and last week it was against the Ravens backups. You can also run on the Steelers, who actually give up more yards per game on the ground than the Bills.

The Steelers also give up more rushing yards than the Cowboys...we did fine with the run game on them.

 

with no Watt I think it could be a problem for them. Clearly this isn't a lock and the Steelers are still tough 

[boyst]

29 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Because Bills fans need a reason to be miserable? 

no, i'm being serious... because i am driving up from NC. i avoided flying because it's easy to get caught up in bad weather missing a flight.

[billsfan714]

40 minutes ago, boyst said:

why all this doom and gloom about a blizzard? i am seeing nothing of it?

When I showed accuweather, never said anything about a blizzard.   Just some snow, like an inch or two, temps in 20s and high winds, so it will be a brutal wind chill.  Also, as someone who lives in Steeler country, Mason Rudolph does have arm strength, he's no Bailey Zappe in that department.   Just dont want some fans thinking that by mistake.

 

Forecast as of this AM.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 14

Day

1/14

24°Hi

RealFeel® -3°

RealFeel Shade™ -3°

Very windy; colder with snow

Max UV Index0 Low

Snow3.5 in

WindW 32 mph

Wind Gusts51 mph

Probability of Precipitation70%

Probability of Thunderstorms4%

Edited January 9 by billsfan714

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

If bad weather favors the running game, then the Steelers aren't in great shape.  Rudolph's 1 TD per game won't help. He's going to get lit up.

He might get lit up and still win the game. The Pitt plan is pretty simple. Run the rock, make a few explosive passes, play great d, and get turnovers. Win ugly. They can if they get the bad version of the Bills. 

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

The Steelers also give up more rushing yards than the Cowboys...we did fine with the run game on them.

 

with no Watt I think it could be a problem for them. Clearly this isn't a lock and the Steelers are still tough 

Any playoff game is tough, but if Bills fans are "scared to death" of the Steelers how would they feel about a road game in Baltimore? How about a date with Miiles Garret and the Browns D? What about the incoming Devin Singletary and Jerry Hughes revenge game? Do you really think that Mahomes and Kelce will continue to struggle? And this time, the Chiefs would have Pacheco. You gotta beat three good teams to make the SB as a two-seed, so strap in. It will be a roller coaster but I'd rather be on the ride than not.

[JerseyBills]

Bills currently 10 point favorite,  next closest is Dal at 7.5

[kkim0904]

12 minutes ago, Negan said:

Dude I had Najee Harris in fantasy, he stinks, gang tackle, we put 2 touchdowns on the board early on Pitt and they'll be ready for the plane home.

I had him too in my fantasy.  He was on the bench..I don't think I started him once.

[Warcodered]

45 minutes ago, boyst said:

why all this doom and gloom about a blizzard? i am seeing nothing of it?

Yeah I don't get this at all, we wanted home games, guess what this is the kind of weather you get at home in Buffalo during the Playoffs, we've been working all year on being able to run the damn ball and being able to stop it too so why don't we just ***** do that. Hell if we have to throw we've got the guy with an arm who can do it better than any one in these conditions.

[YattaOkasan]

48 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Just for some context, Najee Harris has two games with over 100 yards rushing. They happen to be in the last two weeks, but two weeks ago it was against the Seahawks who have the second worst run defense in the league and last week it was against the Ravens backups. You can also run on the Steelers, who actually give up more yards per game on the ground than the Bills.

Agree you can run on them but some context.  yes they have more yards per game but they middle of the pack at yards per carry (better than us and only a little worse than us).  I think we have to score through the air though even though we can get yards on the ground.  they are third best in rushing TDs and middle of the pack in Passing TDs.  I suspect they use light boxes to get guys into coverage in the middle of the field but then stiffen up when they get to the red zone.  

30 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

The Steelers also give up more rushing yards than the Cowboys...we did fine with the run game on them.

 

with no Watt I think it could be a problem for them. Clearly this isn't a lock and the Steelers are still tough 

Cowboys had a major injury on the interior and got pushed around.  Heyward and Benton are not gonna get pushed around in the same way as the cowboys iDL i think.  though i hope we can pressure them on the edges more than we did miami because they are not as athletic in the back 7.  

[RyanC883]

Really no excuse to lose to a team with its 3rd string QB and team MVP/best defensive player in the league out.  

 

You also have a rookie CB in Porter Jr. (while he's good, he is still a rookie) covering Diggs.  

 

 

[Scott7975]

 

[Logic]

Based on the weather report and the opponent...

Offensively: Run the ball, use Josh's legs as a weapon, hold on to the rock, and end drives in points (Steelers have a great scoring and red zone defense, so even FGs are okay).

Defensively: Gap integrity and tackling.

I'd love to say to go pass heavy early, get a big lead, and force Mason Rudolph to catch up. But based on recent weeks, I don't have enough faith in the Bills' passing game or ball security to suggest that that's a particularly wise strategy. 

As such, run and stop the run, unleash Josh's legs, and hold on to the football, and I think the Bills win it.

 

[BuffaloBaumer]

3 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

Really no excuse to lose to a team with its 3rd string QB and team MVP/best defensive player in the league out.  

 

You also have a rookie CB in Porter Jr. (while he's good, he is still a rookie) covering Diggs.  

 

 

 

Their 3rd string QB is their best one, so I would not trust that line. 25% of that stadium will be Steelers fans so they have that going for them. Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league and will have that team's hair on fire coming into Buffalo. Add the 50 mph gusts with snow and it all adds up to yet another game decided in the last 5 minutes. Anyone thinking this is an easy blowout is just going to be angry during this one from start to finish. 

 

Dallas is the only team Buffalo has put away early (recently) and to expect anything other than another close one is not wise, in my opinion. 

[RyanC883]

Just now, BuffaloBaumer said:

 

Their 3rd string QB is their best one, so I would not trust that line. 25% of that stadium will be Steelers fans so they have that going for them. Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league and will have that team's hair on fire coming into Buffalo. Add the 50 mph gusts with snow and it all adds up to yet another game decided in the last 5 minutes. Anyone thinking this is an easy blowout is just going to be angry during this one from start to finish. 

 

Dallas is the only team Buffalo has put away early (recently) and to expect anything other than another close one is not wise, in my opinion. 

 

I expect it to be close, but we should still beat PIT.  Rudolph has played 3 games so far this season.  We should be able to confuse him defensively.  

[Sestak4ever]

Some good bulletin board material from Paul Zeisse from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette. Says he would much rather face Allen in Buffalo than Mahomes in KC. Says Allen is basically a million dollar talent with a ten cent head, or not too far off. Roast ‘em Josh! Go Bills!!!🏈

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

Just now, BuffaloBaumer said:

 

 25% of that stadium will be Steelers fans so they have that going for them.

I am curious how this turns out. In the regular season or during the drought years, for sure. Maybe more than 25%. 

But in 2024 for a playoff game, perhaps less?

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

I am curious how this turns out. In the regular season or during the drought years, for sure. Maybe more than 25%. 

But in 2024 for a playoff game, perhaps less?

I think it’s about right. They have fans everywhere and they travel well. Won’t be like Bills @MIA but they’ll have a sizable contingent . 

[newcam2012]

30 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Yeah I don't get this at all, we wanted home games, guess what this is the kind of weather you get at home in Buffalo during the Playoffs, we've been working all year on being able to run the damn ball and being able to stop it too so why don't we just ***** do that. Hell if we have to throw we've got the guy with an arm who can do it better than any one in these conditions.

Depends on how bad the conditions are. The Bills have the obvious better QB by leaps and bounds. As a result, the Bills passing game is a huge advantage. I've seen reports of wind gusts up to 50mph and  winds in the 15 mph to 25 mph range. Even Allen with be hampered by these types of winds. So yes the conditions very well can negatively effect the Bills more than Pitt. 

 

Hope that helps. 

4 minutes ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

I am curious how this turns out. In the regular season or during the drought years, for sure. Maybe more than 25%. 

But in 2024 for a playoff game, perhaps less?

Steeler fans will travel they always do. They are a great fan base. No way will they make Highmark Stadium a home game. 

[Warcodered]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Depends on how bad the conditions are. The Bills have the obvious better QB by leaps and bounds. As a result, the Bills passing game is a huge advantage. I've seen reports of wind gusts up to 50mph and  winds in the 15 mph to 25 mph range. Even Allen with be hampered by these types of winds. So yes the conditions very well can negatively effect the Bills more than Pitt. 

 

Hope that helps. 

Steeler fans will travel they always do. They are a great fan base. No way will they make Highmark Stadium a home game. 

and that somehow negates our ability to run and stop the run against a Steelers offense that's been awful all year and who's defense just got worse, and I didn't discount the wind our guy would be better in it then theirs though.

[letsgoteam]

If the Bills were to "legitimately" lose to the Steelers because of the weather. You know some kind of dumb 8-6 game, 3-0, etc. Then NOT building a dome will have been the dumbest thing ever. 

 

All of the romanticizing of games in Buffalo bad weather is all fun and games until it legitimately ends a playoff run.

[boco357]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

I am curious how this turns out. In the regular season or during the drought years, for sure. Maybe more than 25%. 

But in 2024 for a playoff game, perhaps less?

I know they travel well, but hopefully with the new stadium all the brokers that gobble up tickets(specifically behind the visitor benches)will be gone.

[letsgoteam]

4 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

and that somehow negates our ability to run and stop the run against a Steelers offense that's been awful all year and who's defense just got worse, and I didn't discount the wind our guy would be better in it then theirs though.

It just brings both teams to a more level playing field. And then you are also hoping the wind/weather isnt super awful during an offensive drive or FG. 

 

 

Swirling winds for one team and then it's "clear" for the other team. 

 

Long story short, it makes "luck" that much more of a factor then it should. Domes don't have luck, it's all controlled.

[boco357]

Tickets look pretty affordable also for a playoff game, you can get in for $160.

[Gman10]

35 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree you can run on them but some context.  yes they have more yards per game but they middle of the pack at yards per carry (better than us and only a little worse than us).  I think we have to score through the air though even though we can get yards on the ground.  they are third best in rushing TDs and middle of the pack in Passing TDs.  I suspect they use light boxes to get guys into coverage in the middle of the field but then stiffen up when they get to the red zone.  

Cowboys had a major injury on the interior and got pushed around.  Heyward and Benton are not gonna get pushed around in the same way as the cowboys iDL i think.  though i hope we can pressure them on the edges more than we did miami because they are not as athletic in the back 7.  

 we will be fine. If we can't beat the Steelers, we can't beat the Ravens, 9ers etc. 

 

the Steelers w/Watt allowed more rushing yards than Cowboys, Bills etc. They are very "middle of the pack" in that stat. Gotta believe

Edited January 9 by Gman10

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Gman10 said:

 we will be fine. If we can't beat the Steelers, we can't beat the Ravens, 9ers etc. 

 

Of the 6 other possible AFC playoff teams the Bills could face, Pittsburgh is the one you pick.

 

These worry-warts need something to worry about and that's fine with me.  Any team can beat any team, but I'll take Pittsburgh over

any of the other teams.

[RiotAct]

8 minutes ago, boco357 said:

Tickets look pretty affordable also for a playoff game, you can get in for $160.

yep came here to post this, prices dropping steadily and hopefully will continue to do so!

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

yep came here to post this, prices dropping steadily and hopefully will continue to do so!

It's the weather   

[Success]

I think wind favors the Bills.  Rudolph has a strong enough arm - but I've never seen anyone throw in the wind like Allen.

 

Anyone remember the strike to Diggs in the EZ in the Pat/wind game?  I think that was over 40 yards, and he put it right on Diggs hands.  

 

And, fortunately, the Bills have a run game now.  We can run on anyone if we have to.

 

[SWATeam]

Just now, Success said:

I think wind favors the Bills.  Rudolph has a strong enough arm - but I've never seen anyone throw in the wind like Allen.

 

Anyone remember the strike to Diggs in the EZ in the Pat/wind game?  I think that was over 40 yards, and he put it right on Diggs hands.  

 

And, fortunately, the Bills have a run game now.  We can run on anyone if we have to.

 

Unfortunately the Steelers biggest weakness is coverage.  If the pass game is compromised we wont be able to take advantage of that.

[Gman10]

10 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Of the 6 other possible AFC playoff teams the Bills could face, Pittsburgh is the one you pick.

 

These worry-warts need something to worry about and that's fine with me.  Any team can beat any team, but I'll take Pittsburgh over

any of the other teams.

I agree. I always think worst case scenario, I know any team can beat any team. But like you said, this is the best case scenario. At home, on a roll, against a team with their best player missing. 

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

Unfortunately the Steelers biggest weakness is coverage.  If the pass game is compromised we wont be able to take advantage of that.

There run game D is middle of road at best as well

[Buffalo03]

Let's just hope that we don't do what we did against the Patriots in that wind game in 2021 where we didn't really start throwing until the 4th quarter. We have the QB that can do it and he proved it in that game. 

[IBTG81]

Watt officially ruled out. 

[bills742]

 

 

Watt OUT officially. 

[Boatdrinks]

13 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Of the 6 other possible AFC playoff teams the Bills could face, Pittsburgh is the one you pick.

 

These worry-warts need something to worry about and that's fine with me.  Any team can beat any team, but I'll take Pittsburgh over

any of the other teams.

Exactly. There will be tons of hand wringing here over the opponent regardless of who it is. It’s like they expect you get to play Arizona or something in the playoffs. Not how it works , so beat whoever is in front of you !