Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

What sucks is the Bills dropping multiple games they had the lead in late in the 4th quarter. Then the Miami split tie breaker wouldn't matter

I don’t look at it that way at all. I look at like the playoffs start a week early for the Bills. Which as a fan I prefer over a meaningless Week 18 game. 

[mrags]

39 minutes ago, zow2 said:

I’m assuming KC will still hang on to win the AFC West.  Gonna need them to get right at month end to dispose of Cincinnati on 12/31.

Rooting hard for Detroit over Denver this weekend too, among other games. 

 

Bills obviously need to take care of their business.

I came here for this argument. Wouldn’t it be possible for the Chiefs to go on a bender and the Broncos take the AFCW. Meanwhile we beat the Chiefs for a wildcard in that scenario since we already beat them. Idk. There’s so many different ways it could happen. No one is more right than another at this point. Each week we get closer to getting those answers tho. 

[zow2]

12 minutes ago, mrags said:

I came here for this argument. Wouldn’t it be possible for the Chiefs to go on a bender and the Broncos take the AFCW. Meanwhile we beat the Chiefs for a wildcard in that scenario since we already beat them. Idk. There’s so many different ways it could happen. No one is more right than another at this point. Each week we get closer to getting those answers tho. 

 

It’s such a strange final 4 games for those clubs because they both play NE, Raiders and Chargers. The difference is Denver has the harder road game @ Detroit and KC gets the Bengals at home.  While i think Jake Browning is playing over his head right now i just cannot see KC losing a 4th game at Arrowhead this season, can you?

[WickedGame]

There is a scenario where if the Bills beat Miami, they win the division and if they lose, they miss the playoffs altogether. 
 

Which is to say the “percentage” chance to make the playoffs means virtually nothing. I don’t want to be in a scenario where we’re 64% to make the playoffs and 50% to win the division, but lose the game and it drops to 0%. 
 

Just. Beat. Dallas. 

[Inigo Montoya]

I was listening to ESPN radio on my way to work this evening (penance for something really bad that I did) and they were really talking up the Browns' playoff chances because Flacco was now their QB.

 

Flacco?  

 

Like I said, it was ESPN...

[Jrb1979]

14 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I was listening to ESPN radio on my way to work this evening (penance for something really bad that I did) and they were really talking up the Browns' playoff chances because Flacco was now their QB.

 

Flacco?  

 

Like I said, it was ESPN...

It's due there schedule left and their offense looked really good last week. I think they make it and the Bengals make it. The last spot comes down Buffalo, Miami and Denver. 

[mrags]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

 

It’s such a strange final 4 games for those clubs because they both play NE, Raiders and Chargers. The difference is Denver has the harder road game @ Detroit and KC gets the Bengals at home.  While i think Jake Browning is playing over his head right now i just cannot see KC losing a 4th game at Arrowhead this season, can you?

Just saying anything is possible. Well know more in a week 

Edited December 13, 2023 by mrags

[Ray Stonada]

84% chance now!

 

Win out: We in

 

Beat the Pats and lose to the Fins: 79%

[Ray Stonada]

To lose one and still get in we gotta root against the Bengals, Steelers and Broncos.

 

I do feel we can lose to the Dolphins. Their offense impresses. Doesn't need Tua to have a stronger arm than he has.

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

49 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

To lose one and still get in we gotta root against the Bengals, Steelers and Broncos.

 

I do feel we can lose to the Dolphins. Their offense impresses. Doesn't need Tua to have a stronger arm than he has.

 

If we are able to lock up a WC berth next weekend and Miami wins too, do we rest players in Week 18???  Seems like we would want to.  We’d only be playing for seed 6 or 7.

[JerseyBills]

58 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

To lose one and still get in we gotta root against the Bengals, Steelers and Broncos.

 

I do feel we can lose to the Dolphins. Their offense impresses. Doesn't need Tua to have a stronger arm than he has.

 

Just have to get Tua off his 1st read and he's a bum

 

McD has done great over AFC East QBs

Edited December 25, 2023 by JerseyBills

[Big Turk]

On 12/12/2023 at 7:04 PM, zow2 said:

 

It’s such a strange final 4 games for those clubs because they both play NE, Raiders and Chargers. The difference is Denver has the harder road game @ Detroit and KC gets the Bengals at home.  While i think Jake Browning is playing over his head right now i just cannot see KC losing a 4th game at Arrowhead this season, can you?

 

Browning came crashing back to earth against the Steelers and will likely continue. Easiest time to look good is the first few games before DCs get a bead on you.

 

Meh QBs usually don't continue to look amazing for long.

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

To lose one and still get in we gotta root against the Bengals, Steelers and Broncos.

 

I do feel we can lose to the Dolphins. Their offense impresses. Doesn't need Tua to have a stronger arm than he has.

 

 

Until Tua has to play off schedule and then he looks bad.

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

84% chance now!

 

Win out: We in

 

Beat the Pats and lose to the Fins: 79%

 

It's a lot higher now.

[GunnerBill]

After the results this week I feel increasingly good about getting in with 1 more win. Which last week I felt was a slim chance.

[Ray Stonada]

Now up to 87% even if we lose to Dolphins OR the Pats.

 

4% even if we lose both(!).

 

 

[JerseyBills]

8 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

84% chance now!

 

Win out: We in

 

Beat the Pats and lose to the Fins: 79%

Losing to those frauds isn't an option.  After Baltimore dominates them, the mafia will take over that stadium, it'll be like today when they had to use a silent count cause the crowd noise from Cowboys fans. Embarrassing for a 10-4 team at home

[Ray Stonada]

15 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Losing to those frauds isn't an option.  After Baltimore dominates them, the mafia will take over that stadium, it'll be like today when they had to use a silent count cause the crowd noise from Cowboys fans. Embarrassing for a 10-4 team at home

 

From your lips to the football gods' mouths, my friend. Let's go.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Losing to those frauds isn't an option.  After Baltimore dominates them, the mafia will take over that stadium, it'll be like today when they had to use a silent count cause the crowd noise from Cowboys fans. Embarrassing for a 10-4 team at home

 

The "let's go Cowboys" at the start of the Phins final drive was very audible. 

[TampaBillsJunkie]

The Patriots are not a push over to look past. We have two division games that we need to come out focused and play mistake free "complimentary" football.  The goal is in sight, especially if Baltimore takes care of business against Miami.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:

The Patriots are not a push over to look past. We have two division games that we need to come out focused and play mistake free "complimentary" football.  The goal is in sight, especially if Baltimore takes care of business against Miami.

 

Their D could cause issues if the Bills don't come out ready to play.

[Jrb1979]

5 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Losing to those frauds isn't an option.  After Baltimore dominates them, the mafia will take over that stadium, it'll be like today when they had to use a silent count cause the crowd noise from Cowboys fans. Embarrassing for a 10-4 team at home

You don't get to 11-4 by accident.  

[aristocrat]

Man I’ll be rooting hard for the raiders today. Gives us the shot at the 2 seed

[JerseyBills]

16 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

You don't get to 11-4 by accident.  

I mean they beat 1 winning team. They're a solid team, dangerous,  but I don't believe they're legit sb contenders 

[Buffalo03]

8 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

I mean they beat 1 winning team. They're a solid team, dangerous,  but I don't believe they're legit sb contenders 

They didn't even look that good against the Cowboys. If the Cowboys didn't screw up that opening drive, they would have won that game.

[dickleyjones]

1 minute ago, Buffalo03 said:

They didn't even look that good against the Cowboys. If the Cowboys didn't screw up that opening drive, they would have won that game.

Maybe, maybe not. We will never know all we know is the dolphins bested the cowboys.

[mchammer]

If it wasn't for Shawn Hockuli' making bad and nonexistent calls as always, the Cowgirl's might have won that game. Did you see how many holding calls on Dallas and almost none on the Dolphins. I hope this crew doesn't ref any of our playoff games.

[RiotAct]

29 minutes ago, mchammer said:

If it wasn't for Shawn Hockuli' making bad and nonexistent calls as always, the Cowgirl's might have won that game. Did you see how many holding calls on Dallas and almost none on the Dolphins. I hope this crew doesn't ref any of our playoff games.

hopefully that crew doesn’t even sniff a playoff game.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

They didn't even look that good against the Cowboys. If the Cowboys didn't screw up that opening drive, they would have won that game.

ya exactly. idk why they didn't rush big Dak there

[paulmm3]

Shawn Hochuli is one of the worst refs any pro sporting league puts out on a regular basis

[fergie's ire]

5 minutes ago, paulmm3 said:

Shawn Hochuli is one of the worst refs any pro sporting league puts out on a regular basis

Angel Hernandez would like a word.

[HOUSE]

Oh look the Chiefs are at home on national TV 

Never saw this stadium before. 

 

 

[QLBillsFan]

55 minutes ago, Bogie_Klinkhammer said:

Oh look the Chiefs are at home on national TV 

Never saw this stadium before. 

 

 

Pan to TS in 54321… Bob Kraft is not here so must show her 10 times. By the way no actual angst towards TS it’s just comical. How many times have we seen Pegs?? Without Kim being the face of the Bills we won’t see him. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

You don't get to 11-4 by accident.  

It can def happen…look at that Steelers team a few years back.  

[stevestojan]

We really need one pinned thread that is locked and only shows “what the Bills need to happen.” For example, there’s three threads on the topic right now, one that is even titled “bills have 95% chance of getting in with a win in week 17” without any of the scenarios. 
 

All I want to know at the moment is: what needs to happen in week 17 for us to clinch before week 18? 

[Tierlifer]

1 hour ago, paulmm3 said:

Shawn Hochuli is one of the worst refs any pro sporting league puts out on a regular basis

Angel Hernandez nods with approval. 

[stevestojan]

12 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

We really need one pinned thread that is locked and only shows “what the Bills need to happen.” For example, there’s three threads on the topic right now, one that is even titled “bills have 95% chance of getting in with a win in week 17” without any of the scenarios. 
 

All I want to know at the moment is: what needs to happen in week 17 for us to clinch before week 18? 

Fine, I did it myself 🙂

 

How the bills can clinch a spot next week: 

 

Scenario 1 

Bills beat Pats

 

AND any two of these three: 

Chiefs beat Bengals 

Seahawks beat Steelers 

Panthers beat Jax 

 

Scenario 2

Bills beat Pats

 

And 

 

Raiders beat Colts, and  

Titans beat Texans, and 

EITHER Seahawks beat the Steelers OR Chiefs beat Bengals. 

[Ray Stonada]

Worried that Pats could be a tough one. However, the 2020 Diggs 3 TD game against the Pats was one of my favorite Bills regular season moments...

 

[Heavy Kevi]

5 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Worried that Pats could be a tough one. However, the 2020 Diggs 3 TD game against the Pats was one of my favorite Bills regular season moments...

 

 

I would generally agree because they have some momentum right now, but that is all nullified by the fact that Bills already lost to Pats this year.

 

That alone guarantees a win. Josh will not lose to the pats 2 times in one season.

[LABILLBACKER]

14 hours ago, Heavy Kevi said:

 

I would generally agree because they have some momentum right now, but that is all nullified by the fact that Bills already lost to Pats this year.

 

That alone guarantees a win. Josh will not lose to the pats 2 times in one season.

This is a home game and revenge game.  I don't care how Bill schemes this game. We're winning going away.  No turnovers. 

[Gregg]

On 12/25/2023 at 1:32 PM, stevestojan said:

Fine, I did it myself 🙂

 

How the bills can clinch a spot next week: 

 

Scenario 1 

Bills beat Pats

 

AND any two of these three: 

Chiefs beat Bengals 

Seahawks beat Steelers 

Panthers beat Jax 

 

Scenario 2

Bills beat Pats

 

And 

 

Raiders beat Colts, and  

Titans beat Texans, and 

EITHER Seahawks beat the Steelers OR Chiefs beat Bengals. 

 

I could see scenario #1 happening with the Bills, Chiefs, and Seahawks all winning.