Josh is effin back. He says so himself.

[Jay_Fixit]

3 hours ago, dayman said:

Thank God. I’m not being sarcastic when I say the rest of the season sort of depends on how Josh feels. So good.

And I’ll thank Josh. 

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Thrivefourfive said:

So Josh is is as topsy turvy as this board about Allen. Why does Mahomes look like every game he plays with joy of high school junior QB.. arms swinging, head up, feet moving. And Josh has blue days, and then out of his mind days. He dug this hole, interested to watch how he meets the challenge. One week is a good start.

So are you just not paying attention to Mahomes? He's not having a great year either. Hell despite this midseason collapse of the Bills offense somehow Josh doesn't seem to be eliminated from the MVP race because somehow nobody else has runaway with it.

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Leading the league in turnovers isn't something we can just brush aside though.

 

Nobody was praising Jameis Winston for being #1 in passing yards & #2 in TDs when he had 33 TDs to 30 INTs. Thankfully Josh isn't to that point in a single season, but it's still bad enough to where people dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers.

I mean that’s fine, dismiss the TDs. Here we sit and Josh has played in 11 games, Mahomes and Hurts are in the midst of their 10th. They’re the front runners for MVP. 
 

Josh Allen 29 TD and 15 TO in 11 games which is good for 1.93 TD for every 1 turnover.

 

Jalen Hurts 23 TD and 12 TO in 9.75 games which is good for 1.91 TD for every 1 turnover. 

 

Patrick Mahomes 19 TD and 11 TO in 9.75 games which is good for 1.71 TD for every 1 turnover. 
 

Josh left the field with a lead and less than 2 minutes on the clock in two different games this year and didn’t see the ball again. They lost those games. That’s the difference in the narrative and it’s not even his fault. 

Edited November 21, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Leading the league in turnovers isn't something we can just brush aside though.

 

Nobody was praising Jameis Winston for being #1 in passing yards & #2 in TDs when he had 33 TDs to 30 INTs. Thankfully Josh isn't to that point in a single season, but it's still bad enough to where people dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers.

 

Then, at the point Josh is at...those people are wrong to dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers.

 

I did a thing some time ago, where I pulled about 18 years of NFL QB data and looked at a number of stats for correlation to winning.  I did this because I ultimately wanted to look at success of QB drafted in different rounds, so before I could do that, I had to define success; obviously a QB can play well and still lose if the defense is awful.  So I started out looking at winning teams and how their QB played.  Trying to keep this out of TL;DR I found that completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, and YPA (taken all 3 together) were correlated with winning, and the correlation got better if I put in a floor ~220 ypg passing (couldn't pin down an exact number). 

 

But here's the thing - the values that correlated were pretty mild.  Something like >60% completions, TD/INT greater than 1.5, and YPA >6.5.  Which I think most here would say "not very good".  The point was, the QB had to meet ALL THREE of those criteria (plus the passing yard floor), not just one.  If he did, that was good enough for the team to win with a reasonable defense.

 

Where am I going with this?  The point is that right now, Josh is rocking a TD/INT ratio of 1.83.  Which is, in fact, good enough to win.

 

Are there QB with better?  Yes.  Whose teams are having successful years?  Yes, some - Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Tua.

 

Are there QB of successful teams with similar?  Also yes - as a matter of fact, Josh is currently sandwiched between Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence for TD/INT ratio.

 

Obviously, we all want the turnovers to decrease.  But the TDs do matter, and the ratio of points the QB helps generate passing (TDs) to INTs is important - actually, as far as correlation to winning, more important than looking at TDs alone or INTs alone.

[Buffalo03]

I did see a more confident and energetic Josh again. I think deep down, he knew this move had to be made to

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

So Josh is is as topsy turvy as this board about Allen. Why does Mahomes look like every game he plays with joy of high school junior QB.. arms swinging, head up, feet moving. And Josh has blue days, and then out of his mind days. He dug this hole, interested to watch how he meets the challenge. One week is a good start.

 

I just watched the Eagles at Chiefs MNF game.  Mahomes did not look as though he were having a lot of fun out there tonight.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Then, at the point Josh is at...those people are wrong to dismiss the TDs due to the turnovers.

 

I did a thing some time ago, where I pulled about 18 years of NFL QB data and looked at a number of stats for correlation to winning.  I did this because I ultimately wanted to look at success of QB drafted in different rounds, so before I could do that, I had to define success; obviously a QB can play well and still lose if the defense is awful.  So I started out looking at winning teams and how their QB played.  Trying to keep this out of TL;DR I found that completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, and YPA (taken all 3 together) were correlated with winning, and the correlation got better if I put in a floor ~220 ypg passing (couldn't pin down an exact number). 

 

But here's the thing - the values that correlated were pretty mild.  Something like >60% completions, TD/INT greater than 1.5, and YPA >6.5.  Which I think most here would say "not very good".  The point was, the QB had to meet ALL THREE of those criteria (plus the passing yard floor), not just one.  If he did, that was good enough for the team to win with a reasonable defense.

 

Where am I going with this?  The point is that right now, Josh is rocking a TD/INT ratio of 1.83.  Which is, in fact, good enough to win.

 

Are there QB with better?  Yes.  Whose teams are having successful years?  Yes, some - Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Tua.

 

Are there QB of successful teams with similar?  Also yes - as a matter of fact, Josh is currently sandwiched between Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence for TD/INT ratio.

 

Obviously, we all want the turnovers to decrease.  But the TDs do matter, and the ratio of points the QB helps generate passing (TDs) to INTs is important - actually, as far as correlation to winning, more important than looking at TDs alone or INTs alone.

I believe ANY/A is still the QB stat most correlated w winning

[Mark Vader]

6 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Amazing what a haircut does to a guy

If he shaves, he could become invincible.

[billsfan89]

Success is a hell of a drug so to speak. But Josh looked the part against a tough defense that has always given him fits in recent years. If the Bills hope to do anything this season they are gonna need Josh to play like himself.

[Einstein]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Funny, the Shakir pass is one of those wow plays that even a fraction of a hair off was an INT where people would be killing him...

 

So true.

 

Another thing is I just wish he would step into those throws more often. When he steps into a throw, there is zero chance a CB is getting to it. It’s those flat footed throws that are close.

[clearwater cadet]

 

[Just in Atlanta]

“‘High positive affect is a state of high energy, full concentration, and pleasurable engagement, whereas low positive affect is characterized by sadness and lethargy”’

 

(Watson et al., 1988, p. 1065).Jun 12, 2021

 

Hopefully this means no more sadness and lethargy.

[C.Biscuit97]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Love it, he needs that confidence and swagger back!  

 

Funny, the Shakir pass is one of those wow plays that even a fraction of a hair off was an INT where people would be killing him...but when Allen is on and confident, he hits those so much more often than he doesn't.  

 

The real question is how will Allen, Brady, and the offense respond when there is a hiccup and things aren't going great?  Can they keep that swagger, adjust, and come right back like they used to or will they get in a rut again like they did during that 6 week slump?

 

Personally, I think this is the start of a full turn around for this offense.  

Yup. I’m not talking about just Josh when I say this. And this is my “I’m becoming old (but still quite handsome)” mindset. But his generation are front runners. Talk so much trash when they are winning and how great they are. And then second something bad happens, they pout like children.

 

when the Bills get a lead, they have a party. However the second they are losing, they look like their dog just died. They need to fix that and especially Josh since he is their leader. 
 

one thing I noticed last night with Hurts was he was the same guy when they losing and when they took the lead. 

7 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Success is a hell of a drug so to speak. But Josh looked the part against a tough defense that has always given him fits in recent years. If the Bills hope to do anything this season they are gonna need Josh to play like himself.

Agreed but it is a million times easier with Zack Wilson. If you settle for 3 fgs against the eagles, they can come back. 

[MarlinTheMagician]

I will say this -- there is not a team in the league about which I feel (as I often did in drought years), "oh crap, there is no way we can beat this team."  We can beat anybody if the right team shows up.  Eagles game so big - we pull an upset there we go to KC with insane Mojo.

[PBF81]

14 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Orlovsky broke down that play and he definitely knew what he was doing, It's a tight window, Josh is just one of the few people with arm power and confidence to put it in there.

 

Over that punk Gardner too!

 

 

[John from Riverside]

12 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

So Josh is is as topsy turvy as this board about Allen. Why does Mahomes look like every game he plays with joy of high school junior QB.. arms swinging, head up, feet moving. And Josh has blue days, and then out of his mind days. He dug this hole, interested to watch how he meets the challenge. One week is a good start.

Letis Patrick Mahomes lose a string of games and see what his demeanor is

[fan_in_tx]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

"I feel like Dorsey won't be back"

He's the only qb in the NFL who can make that exact throw. A 32 yard thread the needle laser.  That play is why MikeRob calls it a "hand cannon". 

Add this to the highlight reel with Diggs in Detroit last year, the 75 yd to Foster (jags),  75 yd to Davis (kc) and 98 against Pitt.. Plays only Allen can make/ 

[msw2112]

13 hours ago, Prospector said:

“I Feel like I want my baby back, baby back baby back…. Chilis baby back ribs!”

 

they just cut off his mic to hear it all

Don't look now - I saw an article recently stating that "iconic jingle is coming back" and guess which one?  Maybe Josh can score another endorsement deal.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yup. I’m not talking about just Josh when I say this. And this is my “I’m becoming old (but still quite handsome)” mindset. But his generation are front runners. Talk so much trash when they are winning and how great they are. And then second something bad happens, they pout like children.

 

when the Bills get a lead, they have a party. However the second they are losing, they look like their dog just died. They need to fix that and especially Josh since he is their leader. 
 

one thing I noticed last night with Hurts was he was the same guy when they losing and when they took the lead.

 

I'm sorry, but I just LOL when I read stuff like this.

 

We're watching on television.  We see little glimpses of the QB on the sideline and maybe between plays, carefully chosen by the network to create a narrative and drama.

 

And from that you conclude Hurts is the "same guy when losing and when they took the lead" and the Bills all look like their dog just died?  Seriously?

[Sestak4ever]

15 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

We will most certainly find out, and the rest of the AFC is going to sit up and take notice if we win at least 2 of the next 3 games. Right now I'm happy about the win, but in a "we'll see" mode once teams adjust to our new Brady-led offense

Stating the obvious, but these next three games are critical. I sure wish our defense was fully healthy. Go Bills!!!🏈🍻

[Since1981]

9 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

 

I did see a more confident and energetic Josh again. I think deep down, he knew this move had to be made to

 

Agree. It’s not in his JA DNA to dump on a guy he believed in for OC. let’s hope this entire kirfuffle was a bad OC fit.  
 

a 23 yr HC UNC won D1 field hockey champion Sunday. Anything is possible. 

[Don Otreply]

I think Josh is F—-ing relieved that Dorsey is gone, 

[Logic]

The quote, the fresh haircut, the vigorous post-TD celebrations, particularly with Shakir...

It's safe to say Josh might be feeling good this week. As Josh goes, the Bills go, so...

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I believe ANY/A is still the QB stat most correlated w winning

 

I don't keep up on the stats.  For outright winning, could be so - I seem to recall you beating the drum for it pretty heavily some years back.  It didn't fit what I was trying to do in looking at QB performance, since it accounts for sacks - which may or may not be under the QB's control.  And I believe its creators have played around with the weighting on TDs vs INTs a couple of times? weighting TD more heavily and INT less.

 

But ANY/A ultimately makes the same fundamental point in rebuttal to the post I was responding to - it includes both TDs and INTs (with whatever weighting is being used) - reinforcing the point that any reasonable assessment of QB performance can not just "dismiss the QB's TDs because of the turnovers". 

 

They both matter, and if there are "enough" passing TDs (whatever that means) it compensates for "few enough" INTs (whatever that means) - that's my take-home.

 

If you prefer to use ANY/A, Josh is #8 in the league right now.  Herbert is #9, Mahomes is #11, Hurts is #12, Lawrence is #15, Burrows is #21.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Beck Water

[Mister Defense]

As Buffalo now gets better and better and better, something that happened only rarely the last year and a half, and quickly return to contender form,  it will become clearer and clearer (to those who still don't admit it) that Dorsey was an historically bad, incompetent OC.  He will never again have anything more than a minor coaching job in the NFL, if that. 

 

The whole offense is back, have hope again, with one swift move.

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Mister Defense

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

As Buffalo now gets better and better and better, something that happened only rarely the last year and a half, and quickly return to contender form,  it will become clearer and clearer (to those who still don't admit it) that Dorsey was an historically bad, incompetent OC.  He will never again have anything more than a minor coaching job in the NFL, if that. 

 

The whole offense is back, have hope again, with one swift move.

 

 

 

 

You know, I just don't see how people can see that.  Sorry.

 

Last season, our offense was #4 in the NFL for both points and yards with Dorsey at the helm. 

 

This season, we're currently #4 for points and #2 for yards.  Various knowledgeable people, including former NFL QBs and some coaches who hang here and are generous enough to share what they know, have broken down plays this season and shown that there were open options on many pass plays that Josh overlooked, and that our running offense has been effective from the formation utilized (shotgun).

It's not to say that there weren't real reasons for Dorsey's firing, that he isn't just a scapegoat and that the Bills offense may potentially run better under Brady.  It's possible - I need more than 1 game to see that, especially since we "settled" for 4 FG including with 2 starts in great field position. 

 

But I've been a Bills fan since the mid-60s and "historically bad, incompetent" for Dorsey is a tough sell.  You can can argue anything, including that the moon is made of green cheese - but De Rules are de rules and the Facts are the Facts and the argument for "historically bad" doesn't pass muster against the actual offensive parameters.

 

 

[Captain_Quint]

1 hour ago, msw2112 said:

Don't look now - I saw an article recently stating that "iconic jingle is coming back" and guess which one?  Maybe Josh can score another endorsement deal.

I thought they swept the baby under the rug in the Spring?? 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

I think Josh is F—-ing relieved that Dorsey is gone, 

 

I imagine Josh has mixed feelings. 

 

I do think there may have been something amiss, a kind of negative feedback loop between Josh's own self-criticism and Dorsey's possible over-the-top outbursts in response to mistakes (as witnessed in the booth 2022 and implied by comments from Mitch Morse, Gabe Davis, and others).  Others like @Simon have raised the point about apparent miscues and mistakes from other players pointing to a lack of attention to detail in offensive coaching.

 

And, Josh has been observably "impatient" - more his early career self - rather than taking what's there.  It's possible that's because any coaching to do so was couched in a way Josh found difficult to hear and to process and implement.  Josh is a guy who succeeded against a sheet-ton of negative coaching input early in his career, it stands to reason at a certain point he's going to tune negatively packaged feedback out and just return to his basic instincts.  Maybe that's what we've been seeing.

 

1 hour ago, Logic said:

The quote, the fresh haircut, the vigorous post-TD celebrations, particularly with Shakir...

It's safe to say Josh might be feeling good this week. As Josh goes, the Bills go, so...

 

I'd just like to point out that there's something else going on - Josh's shoulder injury and recovery from it.

 

In 2020, Josh injured his L shoulder Week 4 and his performance dipped the next 4 games.  Then 5 games later (note that number) against the Seasnakes, Josh kicked butt and took names in the passing game.  Matt Hasselbeck commented about this based on his own experience with this shoulder sprain injury and its recovery timeline.

 

OK, so Josh sprained his R throwing shoulder in Week 6 against the Giants.  5 games later against the Jets (note that number), Josh is noticeably feeling more vigorous and energetic and is observed saying what sounds like "I'm ***** back".

 

Maybe it's the change of OC, but maybe the progression of healing in his shoulder has something to do with it.  Just a thought.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Beck Water

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'd just like to point out that there's something else going on - Josh's shoulder injury and recovery from it.

 

In 2020, Josh injured his L shoulder Week 4 and his performance dipped the next 4 games.  Then 5 games later (note that number) against the Seasnakes, Josh kicked butt and took names in the passing game.  Matt Hasselbeck commented about this based on his own experience with this shoulder sprain injury and its recovery timeline.

 

OK, so Josh sprained his R throwing shoulder in Week 6 against the Giants.  5 games later against the Jets (note that number), Josh is noticeably feeling more vigorous and energetic and is observed saying what sounds like "I'm ***** back".

 

Maybe it's the change of OC, but maybe the progression of healing in his shoulder has something to do with it.  Just a thought.

Excellent post! I hadn't thought of that at all, to be honest.

Great, great point. Thanks.

[Warcodered]

57 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

As Buffalo now gets better and better and better, something that happened only rarely the last year and a half, and quickly return to contender form,  it will become clearer and clearer (to those who still don't admit it) that Dorsey was an historically bad, incompetent OC.  He will never again have anything more than a minor coaching job in the NFL, if that. 

 

The whole offense is back, have hope again, with one swift move.

 

 

 

Adam Gase and Nathaniel Hacket have been hired numerous times in the NFL.

[boater]

17 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Amazing what a haircut does to a guy

Yeah, that's why I get a buzz cut every 5 weeks. I'd go more often if the barber weren't so expensive.

 

No. 1 on the sides. No. 2 on top. A habit from my military days.

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Over that punk Gardner too!

 

 

You're right, Gardner is a punk. I didn't like seeing Diggs get slammed, but it had a silver lining in seeing Gardner lose his cool.

 

I had to Google the word suplex.

[2003Contenders]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Love it, he needs that confidence and swagger back!  

 

Funny, the Shakir pass is one of those wow plays that even a fraction of a hair off was an INT where people would be killing him...but when Allen is on and confident, he hits those so much more often than he doesn't.  

 

The real question is how will Allen, Brady, and the offense respond when there is a hiccup and things aren't going great?  Can they keep that swagger, adjust, and come right back like they used to or will they get in a rut again like they did during that 6 week slump?

 

Personally, I think this is the start of a full turn around for this offense.  

Agreed.

 

One thing I will say that impressed me was the fact that the offense DID struggle a bit early in the game -- having to settle for field goals that kept the Jets in the game at just 9-0, despite the Bills' domination. Rather than panicking or trying to force the ball in those situations, they played it smart, got points each time -- and ultimately broke the Jets will in the 2nd half.

[PBF81]

28 minutes ago, boater said:

Yeah, that's why I get a buzz cut every 5 weeks. I'd go more often if the barber weren't so expensive.

 

No. 1 on the sides. No. 2 on top. A habit from my military days.

 

Have the Mrs. or someone in your family do it.  I can't do it myself like some people can.  I look like some stoned person gave it to me.  LOL  

 

I taught my wife how to do it, takes a few minutes for her now.  

 

 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I imagine Josh has mixed feelings. 

 

I do think there may have been something amiss, a kind of negative feedback loop between Josh's own self-criticism and Dorsey's possible over-the-top outbursts in response to mistakes (as witnessed in the booth 2022 and implied by comments from Mitch Morse, Gabe Davis, and others).  Others like @Simon have raised the point about apparent miscues and mistakes from other players pointing to a lack of attention to detail in offensive coaching.

 

And, Josh has been observably "impatient" - more his early career self - rather than taking what's there.  It's possible that's because any coaching to do so was couched in a way Josh found difficult to hear and to process and implement.  Josh is a guy who succeeded against a sheet-ton of negative coaching input early in his career, it stands to reason at a certain point he's going to tune negatively packaged feedback out and just return to his basic instincts.  Maybe that's what we've been seeing.

 

 

I'd just like to point out that there's something else going on - Josh's shoulder injury and recovery from it.

 

In 2020, Josh injured his L shoulder Week 4 and his performance dipped the next 4 games.  Then 5 games later (note that number) against the Seasnakes, Josh kicked butt and took names in the passing game.  Matt Hasselbeck commented about this based on his own experience with this shoulder sprain injury and its recovery timeline.

 

OK, so Josh sprained his R throwing shoulder in Week 6 against the Giants.  5 games later against the Jets (note that number), Josh is noticeably feeling more vigorous and energetic and is observed saying what sounds like "I'm ***** back".

 

Maybe it's the change of OC, but maybe the progression of healing in his shoulder has something to do with it.  Just a thought.

Thats a lot of words to say what i said…, 

[blacklabel]

Heh heh, Josh Wick.

[blacklabel]

18 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Says guy on couch.

 

Hey, youse better watch it, pal. He said all is NOT forgiven. So... Josh owes him something, clearly. Do youse wanna owe him something as well, Ricardo?! Ricardo Cranium!!

[TheBrownBear]

I just booked a haircut with my barber for this afternoon.

 

Also, does Shakir remind anyone else of Andre Reed with the ball in his hands?

[Don Otreply]

1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said:

I just booked a haircut with my barber for this afternoon.

 

Also, does Shakir remind anyone else of Andre Reed with the ball in his hands?

Only if he had bigger shoulder pads…, 

[Bferra13]

12 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

If he shaves, he could become invincible.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, 2003Contenders said:

Agreed.

 

One thing I will say that impressed me was the fact that the offense DID struggle a bit early in the game -- having to settle for field goals that kept the Jets in the game at just 9-0, despite the Bills' domination. Rather than panicking or trying to force the ball in those situations, they played it smart, got points each time -- and ultimately broke the Jets will in the 2nd half.

Yes excellent points too, and I was all for the FG to go up 9.  Keep the momentum, make it a 2 score game, and take points.  Especially with the Jets offensive struggles, making it a 2 score game was big there.