Road to the Playoffs

[Success]

If we actually make the playoffs by losing to the bad teams on our schedule and beating the good teams, it will bode well for a title run.

 

Because, ya know - most of the teams in the playoffs are good.

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, TheWei44 said:

Although we don't technically control our own destiny, if we win out, I saw chances of us missing the playoffs is <1%.  So (almost) control our own destiny!  See PlayoffStatus.com

 

Yes, although I posted that we don't control our own destiny and a scenario to prove that, it is an unlikely scenario.  Just a possible one.  The entire reason for posting that was not to show that we can miss the playoffs if we win out... it was more to show that we have no room for error because there are many more scenarios that we miss the playoffs even losing just one game and thats what people don't understand when they post things like "just go 5-2 and we will get in."  Its not that simple. 

[TheWei44]

40 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes, although I posted that we don't control our own destiny and a scenario to prove that, it is an unlikely scenario.  Just a possible one.  The entire reason for posting that was not to show that we can miss the playoffs if we win out... it was more to show that we have no room for error because there are many more scenarios that we miss the playoffs even losing just one game and thats what people don't understand when they post things like "just go 5-2 and we will get in."  Its not that simple. 

Agreed, as of right now, the model essentially says, win out and we're in.  Lose one of six, and we are almost surely in (96%).  Lose two of six, and we're something like 56% chance. Lose three of six, it says 11% chance.  Of course, everything will keep changing.

Edited November 21, 2023 by TheWei44

[bills6969]

Assuming we don’t catch the Dolphins for the division, 10 wins should get us a wildcard spot.  Here’s the path to 10 wins…

 

Must wins:

 

Pats

@chargers

Cowboys

 

Take one of the following:

@Philly

@KC

@Miami 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, bills6969 said:

Assuming we don’t catch the Dolphins for the division, 10 wins should get us a wildcard spot.  Here’s the path to 10 wins…

 

Must wins:

 

Pats

@chargers

Cowboys

 

Take one of the following:

@Philly

@KC

@Miami 

 

I don't think 10 wins is enough.  Not without some serious help.  Pitts and Houston only need 4 wins to hit that mark just like us.  Cleveland only needs 3. 4 other teams would need 5 wins.  Some of them will get there.  I dont know if 3 will but some of them will.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Scott7975

[Big Blitz]

Beat Philly and we can talk about playoff odds.  I don’t want to hear about them till we do that.  
 

We should be their trap game.   
 

And after watching Miami do all it could to lose to the Raiders I’m not convinced they win Friday.  Mostart looks gassed.  Achane is glass.  
 

Jets may respond to the QB change.   

Edited November 21, 2023 by Big Blitz

[dakrider]

Bills play better as underdogs than SB favorites.  Foolish to me to try and project their final record. All Bills need to do from here on out is win their next game and not worry about anything else.

[Milanos Milano]

2 hours ago, bills6969 said:

Assuming we don’t catch the Dolphins for the division, 10 wins should get us a wildcard spot.  Here’s the path to 10 wins…

 

Must wins:

 

Pats

@chargers

Cowboys

 

Take one of the following:

@Philly

@KC

@Miami 

10-7 isn’t going to be good enough, not with the playoff simulator i was messing around with. We can only afford to lose 1 game. Pats, Chargers, Cowboys, and Miami are all must wins. It’s between Philly or KC we have to beat. 

32 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Beat Philly and we can talk about playoff odds.  I don’t want to hear about them till we do that.  
 

We should be their trap game.   
 

And after watching Miami do all it could to lose to the Raiders I’m not convinced they win Friday.  Mostart looks gassed.  Achane is glass.  
 

Jets may respond to the QB change.   

If we lose to Philly, we will have to win out. 

[TheFunPolice]

Staley basically started yelling at the press today. 

 

His "tough guy" attempt complete with shaky little voice was just hilarious. I actually thought he might just start crying right there on the podium. 

 

Classic case of a definitely not tough guy pretending he's a hard ass. Now he's being mocked all over sports media. 

 

It was a thing of beauty, so if you haven't seen it it's must watch TV! 

 

I hope the Chargers sign him to a 10 year extension.

Edited November 21, 2023 by TheFunPolice

[transplantbillsfan]

Still say 10-7 gets in. Some posters are looking at doomsday scenarios rather than reality.

 

You guys realize the Bills are the only team in the WC hunt with their bye week remaining, right? That means every other team plays one more game than Buffalo.

 

I think this iteration of the team could manage 6-1... but 5-2 still finds a way in when all the other teams have 8 remaining games as opposed to our 7.

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Beat Philly and we can talk about playoff odds.  I don’t want to hear about them till we do that.  
 

We should be their trap game.   
 

And after watching Miami do all it could to lose to the Raiders I’m not convinced they win Friday.  Mostart looks gassed.  Achane is glass.  
 

Jets may respond to the QB change.   

 

Philly is the least important game to win remaining on our schedule.

 

If we only lose one more game this year, I hope it's to Philly 

[QCity]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Still say 10-7 gets in.

 

I agree that 10-7 gets us in.

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, TheWei44 said:

Agreed, as of right now, the model essentially says, win out and we're in.  Lose one of six, and we are almost surely in (96%).  Lose two of six, and we're something like 56% chance. Lose three of six, it says 11% chance.  Of course, everything will keep changing.

We need to take care of business and keep hoping for Steeler, Texans & Browns loses.

[BobbyC81]

Here’s my Bills prediction:  they lose the next game to go into the bye at 6-6.  

Out of the bye, they win the last 5 games, which would include of course winning the last game in Miami.

 

 Miami loses to Dallas and Baltimore.  

 

Both teams end up 11-6 but we get the division by beating them twice.

 

As the division winner with the worst record, the Bills have to play the best wild card team, which is Miami and we beat them a 3rd time at home in January.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by BobbyC81
Added more good stuff

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

6 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

Staley basically started yelling at the press today. 

 

His "tough guy" attempt complete with shaky little voice was just hilarious. I actually thought he might just start crying right there on the podium. 

 

Classic case of a definitely not tough guy pretending he's a hard ass. Now he's being mocked all over sports media. 

 

It was a thing of beauty, so if you haven't seen it it's must watch TV! 

 

I hope the Chargers sign him to a 10 year extension.

Works cheap.  Probably hired on in the off season to make up lunch boxes to sell to migrant workers.  Fits in well with Dean Spanos.

[Chaos]

5 hours ago, QCity said:

 

I agree that 10-7 gets us in.

Unless 10-7 includes Miami also finishing 10-7 or worse, with the Bills beating them twice, 10-7 is now statistically very unlikely to gain a wild card spot.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I’ll say this, if the Bills make the playoffs they’re winning the Superbowl. Their remaining schedule at 6-5 is brutal. They’re going to have to get extremely hot to end the season.

 

Playoffs actually start this week for the Bills.

 

My prediction is they finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[4merper4mer]

6 hours ago, Araiza Curse said:

10-7 isn’t going to be good enough, not with the playoff simulator i was messing around with. We can only afford to lose 1 game. Pats, Chargers, Cowboys, and Miami are all must wins. It’s between Philly or KC we have to beat. 

If we lose to Philly, we will have to win out. 

Come back to this post after week 18 and say oops because not a single 10-7 team…..Buffalo or other….missed the playoffs.  I’ll do the same if one does.

[PBF81]

26 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Unless 10-7 includes Miami also finishing 10-7 or worse, with the Bills beating them twice, 10-7 is now statistically very unlikely to gain a wild card spot.  

 

If it comes down to tiebreakers, it's incredibly unlikely that we get in.  It's the opposite of 2017.  

 

Let's simply see whether we can give Philly a game first.  That will determine the outlook for the last quarter.  

 

We have the advantage of an extra day to prepare.  Not that we've been strong on preparation, nonetheless.  

 

 

[Chaos]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’ll say this, if the Bills make the playoffs they’re winning the Superbowl. Their remaining schedule at 6-5 is brutal. They’re going to have to get extremely hot to end the season.

 

Playoffs actually start this week for the Bills.

 

My prediction is they finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs.

All 17 games count the same.  Blundering away games, and chalking it off to "its early in the season" leads to the situation the Bills are in now. 

Having said that, the Cowboys are always over rated, we have a great track record against the Dolphins , and in real life the chiefs offense is broken. zero second half points in three games in a row, and leading the league in dropped passes. they are beatable.

[stlbills13]

Just win baby. Margin for error is very low but you can't tell me the Bills can't do this

 

Beat the eagles in a game where the eagles have a short week. The eagles are more vulnerable on defense than in the past. No goedert is a big loss for their schemes too.

 

Beat the chiefs coming off a bye. The chiefs are still good and I still may even consider them the afc favorites but they aren't the same chiefs. The bye is huge. 

 

Beat the cowboys at home. They've actually been great lately but dak is due to dak sometime soon

 

Beat the chargers. Who can't do this?

 

Beat the patriots at home

 

At that point you may not even need to beat the dolphins. But to me they're a good team that just don't match up well against QBs that can actually make plays. 

[QCity]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Unless 10-7 includes Miami also finishing 10-7 or worse, with the Bills beating them twice, 10-7 is now statistically very unlikely to gain a wild card spot.  

 

10-7 gives them a 63.5% chance which is not considered statistically unlikely. 

 

9-8 drastically drops them to around 9% which, yes, is unlikely. 

 

48 minutes ago, Chaos said:

All 17 games count the same. 

 

No, they certainly do not. It should be obvious that division and conference games weigh more.

[stuvian]

just two games below #1 seed Baltimore

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, QCity said:

 

10-7 gives them a 63.5% chance which is not considered statistically unlikely. 

 

9-8 drastically drops them to around 9% which, yes, is unlikely. 

 

 

No, they certainly do not. It should be obvious that division and conference games weigh more.

Your 63.7 percent chance is wrong. That is a generic value which ignores the actual results so far this season. 

[DapperCam]

If the Bills can win this week, I think there is a good chance that they come out of the bye in a 4 or 5-way tie between all of the wild card teams at 7-5.

 

Broncos, Bengals, Bills, Colts, Steelers, Jags, Dolphins and Browns all have feasible paths to 7-5 without big upsets required (Jets over Miami, Bengals over Jags, Bills over Eagles, Rams over Browns being the biggest upsets to get those teams to 7-5).

 

Crowded field this year.

[TheFunPolice]

it's a crowded field, but I don't see the Broncos, Colts or Steelers hanging in there.

 

Browns could fall back but they have 7 wins already, so they might have enough in the bank to limp into the playoffs and a round 1 exit. 

 

 

[Ray Stonada]

Times playoff simulator says if the Bills go 10-7 they have a 45-49% of making the playoffs (depending on which two teams they lose to)

 

Too close for comfort 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Miami is not losing to the Titans or the Raiders. We would probably be getting in as a wild card and even that would take some luck.

[Big Turk]

Bills run D is only allowing 3.1 YPC since Linval joseph has got here.  Keep that up and it makes it much easier in all areas. Teams will be forced to drop back against that pass rush.

[transplantbillsfan]

41 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Miami is not losing to the Titans or the Raiders. We would probably be getting in as a wild card and even that would take some luck.

 

Are you living in the past?  Miami just played the Raiders.  They didn't lose, but they almost did.

 

Miami is a paper tiger.

[Warcodered]

 

It's tough but they'll struggle against that Jets defense next week as well, not sure it'll matter though if the Jets can't score points.

[margolbe]

Looked at the simulator, and assuming we will win against Miami, The Chargers and Patriots, the key other game is The Chiefs.  Beat the Chiefs and the playoff odds go up to 66%.  And, if you beat either the Eagles or Cowboys the odds go up to 99%.  You don't have to win all 6, but at least 4 of the right games and if you want a virtual guarantee, 5 of the 6.

Edited November 21, 2023 by margolbe

[QCity]

8 hours ago, Chaos said:

Your 63.7 percent chance is wrong. That is a generic value which ignores the actual results so far this season. 

 

I'm not sure what you mean by generic value? But of course it accounts for results so far (i.e. their record) and future matchups (division teams play each other more at the end of the season), opponents record, home field advantage, etc. It's not an exact science by any means but what everyone should takeaway from this is the difference between 3 wins and 4 wins. Going 3-3 is less than a 10% shot, while 4-2 gives them a pretty good chance at 63%.

[steven50]

All the "Miami isn't losing to the Titans!" comments sure didn't age well.🤣

Edited December 14, 2023 by steven50

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, steven50 said:

All the "Miami isn't losing to the Titans!" comments sure didn't age well.🤣

 

to be fair they lost like 4 offensive linemen, a couple defenders were at least banged up, Achane was banged up and didn't get many carries, Hill was banged up and out half the game. ***** happens and when people say these things, they don't guess with injuries, people can also guess wrong.  I'm sure you have made some wrong guesses around here too.

 

I'm glad they didn't age well.

[Scott7975]

There is still a very good chance we don't make the playoffs if we dont win the division though.

[aristocrat]

rooting for detroit big time this weekend

[Drew21PA]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

There is still a very good chance we don't make the playoffs if we dont win the division though.

I get the attitude - hard to trust this team 

 

no doubt that something has changed.

 

sucks we didn’t get that fumble against AJ brown in Philly we would be rolling right now 

 

oh well

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Is there any meaningful difference between Indy or Pittsburgh winning Saturday?

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Is there any meaningful difference between Indy or Pittsburgh winning Saturday?

 

Root for a Steelers win as they have a tougher schedule after this weekend. Plus, they play 3 out of their last 4 on the road. The Colts play 3 out of their last 4 at home.

 

Colts - Steelers, at Falcons, Raiders, Texans

 

Steelers - at Colts, Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

 

 

A perfect Saturday will be the Vikings over the Bengals, Steelers over the Colts, and Lions over the Broncos

[Scott7975]

Just now, Drew21PA said:

I get the attitude - hard to trust this team 

 

no doubt that something has changed.

 

sucks we didn’t get that fumble against AJ brown in Philly we would be rolling right now 

 

oh well

 

It's not that for me really.  I actually do trust this team to win.  Dallas is going to be a tough game, but in Josh Allen I trust.  It's just that so many teams are so close that not winning the division is going to be really tough.  I was going to revisit my old thread to put a scenario and see if people think its actually unrealistic.  Because I believe its really realistic.  Thing is even if you change a few games, it just changes those teams and still leaves the Bills out.  I'm just going to put it here though since my thread is pages and pages back. 

 

Keep in mind that I think we can absolutely win the division as I think Miami is going to lose more games.  This is just for the sake of argument that Miami surprises and actually wins out while we lose to Dallas.  Im only going to put up the games that matter and just assume Miami wins the division.  Lets see if any of this looks unrealistic to anyone and if so what games they would change...

 

Week 15

Cinci over Vikings

Colts over Pitts

Detroit over Denver

Browns over Bears

Ravens over Jags

Texans over Titans

Week 16

Cinci over Pitts

Jags over Tampa

Browns over Texans

Denver over Pats

Colts over Atlanta

49ers over Ravens

Week 17

Browns over Jets

Seattle over Pitts

Colts over Raiders

KC over Cinci

Jags over Panthers

Denver over Chargers

Titans over Texans

Week 18

Denver over Raiders

Ravens over Pitts

Cinci over Browns

Colts over Texans

Jags over Titans

 

Again, I think we have a good shot at winning the division.  This exercise is just to show how difficult it is to get in without winning the division.  Is there anything in there that anyone would change.  There are a couple scenarios where the Bills make it, but there are also a lot that they don't.  This is just my list of gut feeling on how games could play out.  In this scenario the Bills would not make it.  Obviously, I could see some games going another way but I had to pick someone.

 

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Is there any meaningful difference between Indy or Pittsburgh winning Saturday?

 

It honestly all depends on how the rest of the season plays out.  Both teams can make the playoffs.  There is a huge tie in the AFC right now which is why getting a WC is so difficult this year.