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Road to the Playoffs


steven50

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16 minutes ago, Success said:

What are you trying to convince me of?

 

Are you looking for me to give up?  To say that we have zero chance w/ 8 weeks left in the season?

 

Convince you of?  Not really trying to convince you of anything.  Simply responding to what I consider to be flaws in your scenario analysis and logic.  

 

The odds of us getting in as a wild-card are all but nil.  For a Wild Card, the math most certainly does have to get insane.  

 

As to giving up, you'd have better hope that the new stadium is completed a year ahead of schedule.  "Giving up" is immaterial and irrelevant.  

 

We don't have zero chance.  Our chance is however directly linked to winning the division, and as stated, Miami given their schedule, isn't even remotely likely to finish 3-5, which is probably what it would take.  

 

How about simply beating the Jets first.  If we can't beat them fairly decisively, given our other losses, it's pretty unlikely we even win many more games at all.  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Convince you of?  Not really trying to convince you of anything.  Simply responding to what I consider to be flaws in your scenario analysis and logic.  

 

The odds of us getting in as a wild-card are all but nil.  For a Wild Card, the math most certainly does have to get insane.  

 

As to giving up, you'd have better hope that the new stadium is completed a year ahead of schedule.  "Giving up" is immaterial and irrelevant.  

 

We don't have zero chance.  Our chance is however directly linked to winning the division, and as stated, Miami given their schedule, isn't even remotely likely to finish 3-5, which is probably what it would take.  

 

How about simply beating the Jets first.  If we can't beat them fairly decisively, given our other losses, it's pretty unlikely we even win many more games at all.  

 

 

 

Nothing I said in my post was delusional.  I said we had a slim chance, and that the math isn't insane yet.  It's not.

 

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24 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Nothing I said in my post was delusional.  I said we had a slim chance, and that the math isn't insane yet.  It's not.

 

 

That depends upon how one defines insane.  

 

We're one conference loss away from having no chance apart from running the table otherwise.  

 

That's pretty insane.

 

If Miami wins the division they're essentially zero.  

 

Bless your optimism though!  

 

 

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6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

That depends upon how one defines insane.  

 

We're one conference loss away from having no chance apart from running the table otherwise.  

 

That's pretty insane.

 

If Miami wins the division they're essentially zero.  

 

Bless your optimism though!  

 

 

I played around with the NYT playoff machine last night during the Ravens and Bengals game. The Bills have a better chance than is being portrayed. I think a lot of the "slim" talk is their schedule more than anything. I found a scenario where we could go 10-7 with losses to both the Eagles and Chiefs and still get in as a wild card. We most certainly have to go 5-2 or better to make it happen but our playoff chances honestly are not as bad as they are made out to be 

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1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

I played around with the NYT playoff machine last night during the Ravens and Bengals game. The Bills have a better chance than is being portrayed. I think a lot of the "slim" talk is their schedule more than anything. I found a scenario where we could go 10-7 with losses to both the Eagles and Chiefs and still get in as a wild card. We most certainly have to go 5-2 or better to make it happen but our playoff chances honestly are not as bad as they are made out to be 

 

LOL, well, that schedule does have something to do with it.  

 

What are the Vegas odds that we go 5-2?  Which is given our schedule.  

 

That would aid in defining whether or not that's insane.  

 

I have to think that ..., well, they're insane.  LOL

 

Or the odds that we get a Wild Card?  

 

Be a great prop bet with a huge payday.   ... or rather an insane payday.  😁

 

BTW, there are five teams currently seeded lower than we are.  We lost to two of them, and if a third beats is on Sunday they'll be ahead of us too.  

 

Let's revisit after the Jets game.  We're due one of our blowouts.  But if we do lose, I'm guessing that our chances would be all but non-existent.  

 

 

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w all the back up qbs for the teams ahead of us, and them playing each other, it seems like the raves will smash up their own division taking care of clevland, pittz, and cinci for us (they are all not great teams w their current injuries and pittz has to have its luck run out).

 

the texans and colts will likely have at least one fall down (i think colts), and the afc west honestly looks like kc and no body.

 

as bad and as dumb as we have been, we can keep up w miami and beat them last game for the division (which means we will likely have room to lose 1 maybe 2 more) and likely can land the 7th wild card if we are 10-7

 

if the d can continue to play above its station and not be asked for end of game stops, and the O can turn the super high efficiency stats into more points via removing the bad play (driver enders, turnovers, just a couple of those turned into FGs and we are winners) then we are in.

 

if this team can't make that happen then they need to make it happen next season with an entirely new front office.

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13 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

According to PlayoffStatus.com, Buffalo does not control its destiny as of Monday night.  I may be mistaken in the belief that future victories by Buffalo would not elevate the team back into a situation where they can make the playoffs regardless of other teams' performances.

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/billswhatif.html

 

Just perused this site. As others have noted, Bills need to go at least 5-2 for the rest of the year AND get some "help" from other teams. The fat lady isn't singing yet for the Bills, but she's in the studio, warming up.

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Beat the Jets this weekend and then go 2-2 or better over the next four @ Philly, @ KC, vs. Dallas and @ LA Chargers. That is all I ask. That would put us at minimum in the hunt with some help needed going into the final two weeks vs. New England and @ Miami. Just let us play some meaningful football past Christmas. 

 

 

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13 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

According to PlayoffStatus.com, Buffalo does not control its destiny as of Monday night.  I may be mistaken in the belief that future victories by Buffalo would not elevate the team back into a situation where they can make the playoffs regardless of other teams' performances.

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/billswhatif.html

 

 

Cool breakdown. So, at a final record of 10-7 the Bills have a 65% chance of making the playoffs. With the most likely way of making it being winning the division (38%) and wild card seed 6 or 7 combining for 27%.

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I think the last couple slots will have worse records than people think. 

 

Right now we just need those other 5-5 or even 6-3 teams to beat themselves up. We may need some to win one week, then lose the other. It's actually pretty likely they will. I'm not a believer in the Steelers, nor Browns w/ a rookie QB. 

 

Of course, tough to trust the Bills. Too sloppy too many turnovers. I give us better odds than the 30%, but not good odds. 

 

Very interested in Miami. 8 games left, and winter is coming. @ Balt tough game. Players who struggle to stay healthy, but a soft home dominated schedule. 

 

Yet If Bills can beat them, definitely 3-4 potential losses on their schedule. ( Balt , Dallas, Buff) 

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Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Cool breakdown. So, at a final record of 10-7 the Bills have a 65% chance of making the playoffs. With the most likely way of making it being winning the division (38%) and wild card seed 6 or 7 combining for 27%.

It was me with the erroneous conclusion earlier that the Bills would be unable to regain a playoff berth, once they had lost any control of their playoff chances after Monday's game.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

Just perused this site. As others have noted, Bills need to go at least 5-2 for the rest of the year AND get some "help" from other teams. The fat lady isn't singing yet for the Bills, but she's in the studio, warming up.

Here's the most frustrating thing for me. 

 

This year all the other perceived "SB contenders" are struggling in some form. KC may still be 7-2, but they are flawed and beatable IMO. Cincinnati is struggling due in part to Burrow injury, but largely because their defense is bad. We know about Buffalo's issues, obviously. Jets lose Aaron week 1.  Without key injuries and poor output from the offense this should be the year that the Bills took over and walked into the Super Bowl. Had they won the games the really had no business losing (Jets without Aaron, Pats, Denver) the season is much different. Now they have a tough road.

 

This is leaving the door wide open for a team like Baltimore or, yes even Miami to swoop in.

 

Now, IMO there is STILL a path to the Super Bowl, but everything has to go just right. We would need good playoff matchups (Miami and KC, Yes...Baltimore NO) and Brady has to get the offense humming quickly. Not impossible, but unlikely everything plays out just right.

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Here's the most frustrating thing for me. 

 

This year all the other perceived "SB contenders" are struggling in some form. KC may still be 7-2, but they are flawed and beatable IMO. Cincinnati is struggling due in part to Burrow injury, but largely because their defense is bad. We know about Buffalo's issues, obviously. Jets lose Aaron week 1.  Without key injuries and poor output from the offense this should be the year that the Bills took over and walked into the Super Bowl. Had they won the games the really had no business losing (Jets without Aaron, Pats, Denver) the season is much different. Now they have a tough road.

 

This is leaving the door wide open for a team like Baltimore or, yes even Miami to swoop in.

 

Now, IMO there is STILL a path to the Super Bowl, but everything has to go just right. We would need good playoff matchups (Miami and KC, Yes...Baltimore NO) and Brady has to get the offense humming quickly. Not impossible, but unlikely everything plays out just right.

 

Maybe in the AFC but the Eagles look really strong. With the Niners getting healthy they look like they will be back on track as last week suggests. The Cowboys are also a strong team but not as consistent as Philly. In the AFC it's the Ravens conference to lose IMHO. The Dolphins aren't swooping anything unless they get to play cupcakes in the playoffs. Bad teams don't make the playoffs. The fish may win a WC game but most likely they will be one and done.

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2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, well, that schedule does have something to do with it.  

 

What are the Vegas odds that we go 5-2?  Which is given our schedule.  

 

That would aid in defining whether or not that's insane.  

 

I have to think that ..., well, they're insane.  LOL

 

Or the odds that we get a Wild Card?  

 

Be a great prop bet with a huge payday.   ... or rather an insane payday.  😁

 

BTW, there are five teams currently seeded lower than we are.  We lost to two of them, and if a third beats is on Sunday they'll be ahead of us too.  

 

Let's revisit after the Jets game.  We're due one of our blowouts.  But if we do lose, I'm guessing that our chances would be all but non-existent.  

 

 

I know the schedule has something to do with it but it's not like we are the Patriots playing these teams. On our game, we are better than any of the teams ahead of us for a wild card. We can definitely go 5-2. I think we beat the Jets this week and I do think we beat the Cowboys, Chargers and Patriots as well. So either we can get 4 straight wins tp end the year or we snag one of the Chiefs or Eagles games. Either way, the 20% chance we have to make it right now is more schedule than anything. We are good enough to beat those teams. We have to stop beating ourselves and we get in

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54 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Maybe in the AFC but the Eagles look really strong. With the Niners getting healthy they look like they will be back on track as last week suggests. The Cowboys are also a strong team but not as consistent as Philly. In the AFC it's the Ravens conference to lose IMHO. The Dolphins aren't swooping anything unless they get to play cupcakes in the playoffs. Bad teams don't make the playoffs. The fish may win a WC game but most likely they will be one and done.

I agree with everything but the bolded. It really feels like somehow the balance of power shifted and the NFC is the tougher deeper conference. 

 

I take the narrative that the Dolphins can only beat bad teams with a grain of salt. All their losses to tough opponents were road games where the noise does play into hurting their offense. It's a flaw that can hold them back. However if they can somehow secure the one or two seed and play at home in the playoffs they can make a deep run. 

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