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Is Josh turning into a one read guy??


Bubba Gump

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Allen made the right read on this play. He had Hardy 1 on 1 with no safety help You take that 100 times out of 100. It is what we signed him for.

In addition to this, when Allen was releasing the ball, Davis had a defender shallow of him that has INT written all over it. He did not break out from this zone until the decision to throw was already made. 

 

Have you ever watched a football game and yelled at the QB to 'throw the ball!!!' because it was taking too long? That's what happens when you ignore the correct read, hoping that someone else would get open (like Gabe eventually did).

 

The tweeter does not understand this basic concept.
 

Joe Marino is just as bad at this. 

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28 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm going to push back slightly in the sense that you do need to take deep shots, and he had single coverage. When he threw it, he didn't know that the Bengals DB would keep up with Harty, but he did. Maybe he stumbles or bites or whatever, but in this case he didn't. Allen DOES need to throw the occasional bombs. The lack of success this year on those plays isn't a sign that he shouldn't do it given his success on these throws last season. 

Agreed. He made the right read. The receiver couldn't beat his man. 

 

Sure. Need to take some deep shots to keep the Defense honest. But bad timing and bad planning.

 

And I'm also convinced, as we saw in the playoff game as well, the Bengals/Anarumo know EXACTLY the type of looks they need to show the Bills in order to bait Josh into throwing the low percentage deep ball.

 

Miami did it to us in the playoff game, and we happened to connect on a few and they died by it.

 

We didnt get so lucky in the Bengals game.

 

Not the right time for those plays. We were only down by 7. Our Defense just held the Bengals to a punt to even the drives. Just methodically move the ball down the field.

 

23 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Allen is capable of going through his reads.

 

I think how he plays at times, where he looks and his choices, are a mystery to everyone outside the Bills who are covering football because it's NOT that he hasn't shown himself capable of progressing through his reads and hitting the open guy at times.

 

Others have pointed out that Allen threw the pick to Gabe on the next play, so it's not like he "lost all faith in Gabe and doesn't look his way anymore".

 

 

If you're correct that Josh thought the "game was almost over" down 14-7 in the 2nd Q, then he has the mental toughness of a loofah and should retire to play golf.  I'm not saying that's what Josh was actually thinking, but I'm not kidding.  Championship-winning QB don't think like that.

 

Look, successful offensive coordinators stretch the field horizontally and vertically.  You can't blame it on Dorsey for "giving him those plays" that do what an OC is supposed to do.  Were there open players and plays to be had?  There were.  Then it's on Josh for not taking advantage of them.

 

Air Raid is damned straight that Josh has warts right now, and somebody better get the liquid nitrogen and burn a few of them off.

 

13 minutes ago, 90sBills said:


At this point of the game it was only Bills’ 3rd possession. Way too early for the game to be almost over if that’s what Allen was really thinking. His tendency is always to take the deep shot. On a first down like this play he’s going to do that when the opportunity presents itself. There’s no problem with this decision. The mistake was the very next play that you eluded to. Those mistakes are game killers. Allen should be a savvy veteran at this point and not get baited like a rookie qb on that play. That was disappointing. 

 

I was mostly being facetious about Josh thinking the game was over. But WTF. No other reason to throw back-to-back low percentage throws because the D is baiting you. And if that Davis throw wasnt picked and just dropped, I'd bet good money we would have gone deep again on 3rd down, likely resulting in a sack.

 

The old Dorsey Classic from most of last year.

 

The problem here is that previously, Dabol would be the one to calm Josh down and get those warts frozen. But now, Dorsey is there and telling Josh to grow more warts.

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People are starting to pile on Josh. Not just the fans but analysts, etc. too. Not saying it’s not warranted in some respects but it’s a far cry from the love fest he’s received the last five years. He seems to be in a weird headspace with the low positive or whatever it is stuff he’s trying out. 
 

We already know he’s an emotional guy on account of how amped we’ve seen him get in the past. I’m hoping he keeps that mindset of being able to take criticism and work on himself and doesn’t let all of it affect him negatively. Wether it’s fair or not, the team goes as Josh goes, and for the most part Bills fans love him. My worry is that one day enough will be enough and he goes the Beasley route of us vs. them (Bills fans included in the them). I’d hate that if we ever did win it all it would be more in spite of us than for us. 
 

Again, I completely understand that in many cases it’s warranted, but he’s still young and we have no idea what’s going on behind the scenes with coaches, players, etc. I know right now it’s hard to be grateful and supportive, but the kid has given this team something we haven’t had in decades and he’s having a rough patch. This is a down year, many excuses to go around. But you know, no one feels it more than him. I believe he can right the ship, just might not be this season. 
 

 

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I’ve watched hundreds of hours of Josh’s all 22 reviews since like 2019 and he definitely is not a 1 read qb. To assume he is is kinda outlandish considering how easy it is to find. It’s blatantly obvious that he goes through progressions on plays that are not rpo’s or sight reads ( like the play to Harty in the last game) and you can literally watch his head move from 1 to 2 to 3 etc.

 

 These are the types of speculations that create false narratives about a guy.

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53 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said:

This video right here shows me that Josh is sticking with one play and going with it. Davis was wide open for a huge gain. Maybe JA has lost all faith in Gabe and doesn't even look his way anymore. Idk 🤷‍♂️ 

 

And why is Deonte Harty even on this team?? Him and Sherfield. Nice moves Beane.

 

 

This is one thing I hate about the "Twitter OCs" that do game review. If the play doesn't work he's criticized either way.

 

So, he should have bypassed single coverage deep in this situation to hit the small ball play. If he tosses it to Gabe here the review would like have been "yeah he picked up 7, but he had Harty single coverage deep and if he hits it, that's 6. Gotta take a chance when it's there. Bad Josh."

 

Good read. Bad pass.

 

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6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Could have been a miscommunication too - looks like harty heads inside (where there is space) and allen threw it vertical right around the same time.  But either way, the result is the same, the pass was uncatchable.  

You’d hope every single long bomb pass would veer towards the middle of the field if it’s open, rather than the sideline, so if Harty’s route was designed to go sideline but he had green grass on his left shoulder, the players have to be on the same page and adjust to that in real time. I’d expect the QB to go MoF every time if it’s open and if a receiver stays sideline that’s on the receiver. I put this pass on Allen either way. 
 

@dave mcbride Puts this on Harty, he wants to see 1 to 2 yards of separation, but 808 is right, a lot of separation is created while the ball is in the air. There’s a saying in football, “If I’m even, I’m leaving” this was one of those cases. A better ball produces a better result.

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Allen reads Gabe (high/low read) first on this play. He has coverage both in front of him and behind him.

 

Image below:

gabe-read.jpg

Allen wisely moves off of Davis, and onto the 1 on 1 Hardy has, with no safety help .This is 


This is the correct read.

When Allen makes his decision to throw to Hardy, Gabe Davis still has a shallow defender just waiting to intercept.

gabe-covered.jpg

Allen made the right read. 

.

Edited by Einstein
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Regarding Allen not hitting intermediate/deep throws, I really wonder if his shoulder is limited his ability to put touch on the ball right now.  You can almost see a change in how he is trying to get the ball out when his is changing arm angle to loft a pass over.  It's why I think this INT Saturday night was an underthrow.  

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Why is it so hard to believe that Allen is in a foreign offense that is 100% aligned to the polar opposite of what Allen's skill sets are? We have essentially taken everything allen is good at and scraped it and installed an offense that asks allen to relearn his entire style of play to fit what our stubborn controlling conservative HC envisions....mcd wants an offense designed for a player like Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer 😆 

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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s done the one read thing all year and it’s worried me. I don’t know what it is. This was a play I talked about earlier vs NE. Great design. How is this not a TD?

 

 

 

 

I actually think this is a good example of what Erik Turner broke down the other day... In Dorsey's offense the route timing doesn't match up with the progressions. Dorsey just calls individual coverage beaters, there's no fluidity to anything. Allen is reading the defense pre-snap and if the coverage is different than anticipated or the read is taken away, he has to go all the way back to the other side of the field. In this case and a lot of cases the routes on the other side of the field are not timed correctly to make this full field progression matter. By the time he gets back to Knox it's too late.

 

Ideally in a crisp offense read 1 should take your eyes to read 2 should take your eyes to read 3. After watching the Cover1 video on the Bengals game I've become convinced that this issue is why our offense looks so disjointed for long periods of time. The routes being called have no cohesiveness. Players aren't being schemed open.

 

Here's the video I'm referencing:

 

 

 

Edited by HappyDays
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1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:


That’s been a knock on Josh since coming out of college.  He’s definitely been more effective in his career when he doesn’t do this, but it’s a tendency of his that hurts the offense’s effectiveness.

 

 a tendency that a QB coach or OC should be able to get out of him.  But nope, not here.  Just clapp along with the HC.  

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1 hour ago, Bubba Gump said:

This video right here shows me that Josh is sticking with one play and going with it. Davis was wide open for a huge gain. Maybe JA has lost all faith in Gabe and doesn't even look his way anymore. Idk 🤷‍♂️ 

 

And why is Deonte Harty even on this team?? Him and Sherfield. Nice moves Beane.

 

 

He’s done this his whole career. Brought it up a bunch. Was pretty much told I don’t know what I’m talking about. 

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I actually think this is a good example of what Erik Turner broke down the other day... In Dorsey's offense the route timing doesn't match up with the progressions. Dorsey just calls individual coverage beaters, there's no fluidity to anything. Allen is reading the defense pre-snap and if the coverage is different than anticipated or the read is taken away, he has to go all the way back to the other side of the field. In this case and a lot of cases the routes on the other side of the field are not timed correctly to make this full field progression matter. By the time he gets back to Knox it's too late.

 

Ideally in a crisp offense read 1 should take your eyes to read 2 should take your eyes to read 3. After watching the Cover1 video on the Bengals game I've become convinced that this issue is why our offense looks do disjointed for long periods of time. The routes being called have no cohesiveness. Players aren't being schemed open.

 

Here's the video I'm referencing:

 

 

 

I don’t remember who it was exactly(maybe Greg Cosell on WGR) but they said pretty much the same thing last season. The reads are all over the place and nothing really meshes. It’s bad that it’s still happening now. 

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Some choose to overlook the explanations, guidance and proof (with pictures even) provided right here in this very thread that refute the concern of the OP, and still post nonsense right after, as if those posts and proof don't exist. Gotta love it! (not really)

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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Pretty sure @HoofHeartedcan confirm this is literally an example of making multiple (2) reads deep/shallow based on safety coming down on crosser or not

 

I mean we have seen Allen hit this throw so many times over his career it's ridiculous to say he doesn't see it, it's been in the playbook for 5 years now 

This specific play is Allen just taking the 1v1 matchup. This is what I've tried to get across earlier in the year - if Allen likes the backside 1v1 matchup he's going to take it regardless of the three man concept. Saw this a lot this game on the backside of 3x1.

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17 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

 a tendency that a QB coach or OC should be able to get out of him.  But nope, not here.  Just clapp along with the HC.  


Or at least align the offensive playing calling and scheme to Josh’s strengths.  That’s where Daboll may have been a great fit for Josh, b/c he knew how to better cover up Josh’s weaknesses.  When even Cris Collinsworth is salivating at the Bills spreading out their offense and the Bills offense is moving effectively, that should be a sign of the direction their offense needs to go with Josh.  You start a drive with a couple QB designed runs, it’s almost like it calms Josh down and it puts the opposing defense on notice.

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1 hour ago, Bubba Gump said:

This video right here shows me that Josh is sticking with one play and going with it. Davis was wide open for a huge gain. Maybe JA has lost all faith in Gabe and doesn't even look his way anymore. Idk 🤷‍♂️ 

 

And why is Deonte Harty even on this team?? Him and Sherfield. Nice moves Beane.

 

 

 

Josh misses some stuff but overall it's because of Dorsey's concepts.

 

Here is a good breakdown instead of a twitter vid

 

 

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I honestly think many of the issue are Josh. Love the guy. Never want him to retire or leave, but he is what we all make fun of Tua for "one read Qb" a lot of times. He also holds o to the ball too long. That could be because our WRs don't separate, but also That TD to Kincaid last week was thrown late and I'm going to guess because Josh was looking elsewhere. So he does go to other guys but I think his mind is made up before the snap and that's why it takes so dang long sometimes to get the ball out. 

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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Finally seeing the all22 of this play. Josh just has to put that ball out in front of Harty and it’s a huge play.

 

I think he is hiding that shoulder injury just a bit. He can make certain throws like always, but some he just can't right now. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This is one thing I hate about the "Twitter OCs" that do game review. If the play doesn't work he's criticized either way.

 

So, he should have bypassed single coverage deep in this situation to hit the small ball play. If he tosses it to Gabe here the review would like have been "yeah he picked up 7, but he had Harty single coverage deep and if he hits it, that's 6. Gotta take a chance when it's there. Bad Josh."

 

Good read. Bad pass.

 

 

I get your point, but if he hits Gabe in stride, that's a lot more than 7 yards. A lot more. 

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I actually think part of the problem is the opposite.  There are several times I've noticed that he gets off the first read almost too fast.  Sometimes, he doesn't let things play out long enough before moving on.

 

You have to remember that this happens to every QB in the league.  Every QB in every game misses reads, event the easiest ones.  It happens.  Playing QB is hard, man.  It's the most difficult position in sports.  You are expected to know and see everything happening on the field at all times and make split second decisions on every snap with very large and fast human beings trying to take your head off.  Sometimes you're going to be wrong.  And no matter whether you're one of the best like Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Rodgers, Manning, etc., you are going to miss reads and you are going to miss open guys.  It will happen regularly in every game.

 

What separates the great ones from the others is the ability to miss less reads than others and the ability, if you do miss a read, to make something else happen on the play to make it a positive instead of a negative.  Do I wish Allen would make better reads sometimes?  Of course.  There are times I watch the All-22 and I wonder why his eyes going to a spot when he should be looking somewhere else completely based on how the defense lined up.  But he makes better decisions more often than not and improvises better than just about anyone else in the league when he does miss a read.  That's why, while not perfect, he's one of the best in the world right now.

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1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Read was ok.  Situational play call was terrible.

 

10 weeks in and the coaching staff still hasn't figured out that Harty is not the player they thought they signed. What is Dorsey thinking sending him on a shot play when he has done nothing to inspire confidence that he will get open? Did Dorsey not realize the type of game we were in? Every down mattered.

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1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Allen reads Gabe (high/low read) first on this play. He has coverage both in front of him and behind him.

 

Image below:

gabe-read.jpg

Allen wisely moves off of Davis, and onto the 1 on 1 Hardy has, with no safety help .This is 


This is the correct read.

When Allen makes his decision to throw to Hardy, Gabe Davis still has a shallow defender just waiting to intercept.

gabe-covered.jpg

Allen made the right read. 

.

 

16 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

I think he is hiding that shoulder injury just a bit. He can make certain throws like always, but some he just can't right now. 

 

I get your point, but if he hits Gabe in stride, that's a lot more than 7 yards. A lot more. 

You kind of prove my point here, Bubba. Every play is second guessed from the Podcast OCs. It's always "If". Look at the other post I quoted here as well. He reads the play to Davis. He's not open when he's looking so he progresses his reads. If he stays locked onto Davis now the narrative is "Allen is staring down his receivers". 

 

Literally the only thing Allen did wrong here was not complete the pass. 

 

All22 is a fun watch but seeing plays broken down at slower speed and not from the QBs POV is often times (not always) ridiculous.

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2 hours ago, Returntoglory said:

And once again,  Davis makes no attempt to Breakup or fight for the ball. 

That throw was yards behind him and directly to the defender. It looked like he forgot which team he was throwing to, I'm not sure what you want him to do there. There is a theme on this board to come up with excuses for Allen's turnovers that has existed since day 1. He is stupid with the ball in both carrying and throwing it, that's just something they are going to have to scheme around.  

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I don't have a problem with a deep shot there to your "speedster" when he clearly has single coverage.  Not a great route by Harty, but if Josh throws that ball more towards the middle of the field, then Harty can make a play on it.  I think Josh is afraid to throw that bomb inside, because of how often he's been fooled and picked off by safety help.

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Josh does lock onto guys, he then likes to bail and scramble and usually finds a guy that way.  That’s always been his MO.

 

that play in the tweet tho - is a bad example.  Harty is open there, he has a step on his man around the thirty yard line and inside leverage with no safety. Bengals #33 stays flat footed and doesn’t drop, Bengals #23 bites down on the crossing route - boom throw it deep.   It was a bad pass but the read was fine.  
 

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2 hours ago, Bubba Gump said:

This video right here shows me that Josh is sticking with one play and going with it. Davis was wide open for a huge gain. Maybe JA has lost all faith in Gabe and doesn't even look his way anymore. Idk 🤷‍♂️ 

 

And why is Deonte Harty even on this team?? Him and Sherfield. Nice moves Beane.

 

 

 

No disrespect, but I hate these post one play videos people post on twitter who have no idea with the read progression or play call was.  Harty had 1 on 1...if Josh thinks there is a play there he is not going to go past that read, he is taking that shot. 

 

I think people have a misunderstanding of how a QB reads the field...there seems to be this assumption that he scans all receivers then makes a decisions on who is best.  They throw the moment they see a target where they think they have a play, meaning they will not see every WR on the field before throwing.

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3 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:


That’s been a knock on Josh since coming out of college.  He’s definitely been more effective in his career when he doesn’t do this, but it’s a tendency of his that hurts the offense’s effectiveness.

 

It is part of the reason for the bootlegs. Yes it got Josh moving, and left his legs as an option. But it also ensured that the play was only a half field read. 

 

Teams post games have fairly regularly been similar to Lamar's. "Keep the play in front of us". "Make them drive the field". "Keep him in the pocket and beat us with his arm". 

 

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Allen is capable of going through his reads.

 

I think how he plays at times, where he looks and his choices, are a mystery to everyone outside the Bills who are covering football because it's NOT that he hasn't shown himself capable of progressing through his reads and hitting the open guy at times.

 

Others have pointed out that Allen threw the pick to Gabe on the next play, so it's not like he "lost all faith in Gabe and doesn't look his way anymore".

 

 

If you're correct that Josh thought the "game was almost over" down 14-7 in the 2nd Q, then he has the mental toughness of a loofah and should retire to play golf.  I'm not saying that's what Josh was actually thinking, but I'm not kidding.  Championship-winning QB don't think like that.

 

Look, successful offensive coordinators stretch the field horizontally and vertically.  You can't blame it on Dorsey for "giving him those plays" that do what an OC is supposed to do.  Were there open players and plays to be had?  There were.  Then it's on Josh for not taking advantage of them.

 

Air Raid is damned straight that Josh has warts right now, and somebody better get the liquid nitrogen and burn a few of them off.



I think this is a lot of explanation to try and put everything into a neat bucket. 

 

Allen Sometimes...
doesn't even look at open receivers.

sees open guys and makes really bad decisions anyways

completes throws he shouldn't and you wouldn't think are possible

plays lights out. 

The constant thread in all of that is that Allen is erratic with his decision making.  He always has been. His physiology bails him out of somethings that would sink lesser players. I have been pretty consistent that I think he is at times slow to diagnose, and his arm strength/legs give him the leeway to do so.

 

I do think that part of it is that he has this false positive feedback loop. Missed seeing the coverage or opted for the bigger play -> bailed out of the pocket or threw a laser -> completed wow throw or scramble-> receives praise -> repeat.->

 

If he could figure that part of his game out he would likely go down as an all time great. Which is why I likely get so frustrated about it in season. 

Edited by Mango
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7 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

It is part of the reason for the bootlegs. Yes it got Josh moving, and left his legs as an option. But it also ensured that the play was only a half field read. 

 

Teams post games have fairly regularly been similar to Lamar's. "Keep the play in front of us". "Make them drive the field". "Keep him in the pocket and beat us with his arm". 

 



I think this is a lot of explanation to try and put everything into a neat bucket. 

 

Allen Sometimes...
doesn't even look at open receivers.

sees open guys and makes really bad decisions anyways

completes throws he shouldn't and you wouldn't think are possible

plays lights out. 

The constant thread in all of that is that Allen is erratic with his decision making.  He always has been. His physiology bails him out of somethings that would sink lesser players. I have been pretty consistent that I think he is at times slow to diagnose, and his arm strength/legs give him the leeway to do so.

 

I do think that part of it is that he has this false positive feedback loop. Missed seeing the coverage or opted for the bigger play -> bailed out of the pocket or threw a laser -> completed wow throw or scramble-> receives praise -> repeat.->

 

If he could figure that part of his game out he would likely go down as an all time great. Which is why I likely get so frustrated about it in season. 

there is absolutely nothing to be frustrated about except your own preconceived notions re: Allen

 

F-REYp-W0AAi4JZ?format=jpg&name=4096x409

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One play and you can make a blanket generalization?   You can’t watch the all 22 and find the open guy and assume the qb is dumb or can’t read a defense or does not want to throw to a guy.  His eyes have to get to the open guy in the window he would be open.  There are no qbs ever who always see the open receiver.  This play seemed like a predetermined shot play.  

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9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

there is absolutely nothing to be frustrated about except your own preconceived notions re: Allen

 

F-REYp-W0AAi4JZ?format=jpg&name=4096x409

 

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

you clearly do not get it

 

all QBs are inconsistent

 

Did you try reaching out to Tom Brady? Unsure he saw your graph. Can't believe that bum doesn't "get it" either.  

 

https://x.com/Rico_BF_/status/1720181065992536507?s=20

Edited by Mango
I don't know why this isn't embedding
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5 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

Wasn't there a thread three or four weeks back where @Einstein posted that Allen was less likely to go with the first read than almost any other QB in the league?

I remember that. One could argue it’s likely because the first read is based on pre snap alignment and expectations, where the QB thinks he’s going to go with the ball (usually as a result of film study). I’d be curious how many other top QBs rank at the bottom in terms of throwing to their first read. 

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Dorsey is not putting Josh in a position to succeed.

 

McDermott is not holding anyone accountable for the continued broken offense. 

 

Beane has ignored the WR2 position for years.

 

The running backs have not performed at a high level especially in the last month.

 

Josh has not played well. 

 

I think all of the above is true. 

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