The Bills are Going to Miss the Playoffs

[Gunsgoodtime]

I had them at 10-7.  But here we are 🤣

[L Ron Burgundy]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

 

If that’s the case, let’s trade Josh to get the assets for the #1 overall pick.  Draft Caleb Williams, Fire McDermott and bring in Lincoln Riley as head coach or whichever hot offensive coordinator fits. 

I'd take Josh over Williams.  Just need better weapons,  line, and coaching.

[julian]

As much as I want McDermott and Dorsey fired after this game, too early to say with certainty but if this continues we may be talking about a partial rebuild

[stinky finger]

3 hours ago, Baba Booey said:

No shot they make the playoffs. Mc D has taken us as far as he can. Time has come!!!

 

We can have this discussion. Something has to change. Perhaps the "process".

[PBF81]

16 minutes ago, stinky finger said:

We can have this discussion. Something has to change. Perhaps the "process".

 

Sacrilege!!!  

 

Anathema!  

 

You mean the holy Process isn't holy for as undefined as it is?  

 

Beware the lightning.  

 

 

[PBF81]

30 minutes ago, julian said:

As much as I want McDermott and Dorsey fired after this game, too early to say with certainty but if this continues we may be talking about a partial rebuild

 

If this continues we may be talking about a complete rebuild with the exception of Allen.  

 

If this continues we'll be 5-12 or 6-11 in three months.  

 

There's no sense in making any changes now.  Let's see if the team can pull its head out of its arse.  But honestly, if we play the Bucs like this next week at home it's going to get FUGLY.  

 

If McD cannot get this team into some phase of an effective above-average steady-state of offense, it'll be interesting.  

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by PBF81

[26TrapDraw]

3 hours ago, kkim0904 said:

I still say we have 60- 70% chance of making the playoff.  I lowered the expectation of the team reaching the conference final to wild card.  I am not upset anymore after the lowering the bar.

The real question is why did you have to?

because this team is just not that good this year. ( injuries were key no question but here we are)

[BillsfaninSB]

Get used to it!

[Pete]

11 hours ago, DapperCam said:

The more I look at it, the more I'm pretty sure we are going to miss the playoffs.

 

10-7 might make the wild card (also could miss on a tie breaker). So we have 4 losses left we can take. Here is our remaining schedule:

 

Tampa - Thursday Night Football is weird and sloppy. Tampa is better than the Pats and the Giants.
@ Cinci - Bengals had our number last year, they haven't played great so far
Denver - *Should* be a comfortable win
Jets - Already beat us once. Jets D has Allen's number.
@ Philly - 5-1 and Super Bowl team
@ KC - 5-1 and Super Bowl winners
Dallas - 4-2 team, very tough defense
@ Chargers - West coast road trips are rough, team has similar talent to Bills
Pats - Well, we just lost to them, so we can probably lose to them again
@ Miami - 5-1 team, we were able to beat them once (with a fully healthy defense though)

 

Games we should definitely win:
- Tampa

- Denver

Games that are toss ups:
- Cinci

- Chargers

- Jets

- Pats

- Miami

Games where the other team should be favored:

- Philly

- KC

- Dallas

Not a lot of room for error here! 😬😬😬😬😬

If we can't beat the Pats, and if the Giants dominate us, we have no business in the playoffs.  We are lucky we aren't 3-4 now.  Pats were missing Judon and Uche,  yet that bunch of DL JAGS dominated our offensive line.  If we struggle against those pathetic defenses- we have no shot against Philly, SF, KC and the top Ds.  If we cant beat the Pats, and don't show up for 3 games in a row, I am not sure we are winning again. 7-10 is my prediction

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

10 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Things look terrible now but just remember we were 7-6 at one point in 2021.  
 

Beane either needs to make a call for another DT until DaQuan gets healthy or he needs to swing a trade for a WR.

 

Behind Jones and Oliver, they are terrible.  Did not see that coming.  I thought Ford was going to be servicable and thought Settle would somewhat of an impact.  
 

Our offense looked good with Jon Brown and Emmanuel Sanders as the #2.  We are lacking that.  I’m not as worried about slot because I think Kincaid showed he can be trusted.  Should have been earlier but it’s out there now.  
 

Gabe Davis doesn’t take pressure off of Diggs.  Diggs is constantly doubled and Davis doesn’t win his match up often, except one type of play.  Davis needs to go back to #3.  

This team should be selling, not buying at the deadline 

[zow2]

I think you're seeing the cream rise to the top... and as predicted it's going to be KC, Philly, SF and maybe Balt, Cinci and Jax with a legit shot to be spoilers and go on a run.  The Jets are not going to have the O.  The Dolphins, Lions, Bills, Cowboys and Chargers look like world beaters some weeks but all have flaws and will fail.

Edited October 23, 2023 by zow2

[DapperCam]

I can see two paths to the playoffs:

 

1. The Bills win the next four games. If they can get their act together it should be doable. Bucs, Bengals, Broncos and Jets. Then they only need to go 2-4 against the really tough end of the year.

2. Dolphins are mediocre the rest of the way, and the division is up for grabs at 9-8.

[Big Turk]

Unlikely.

[Gunsgoodtime]

Missing the playoffs with Josh Allen as your QB should be a fireable offense

[The Jokeman]

Miami can't be too happy with their second game against a big game opponent netting them a loss, I think it bodes well in our chance to winning the AFC East again. Granted it's murkier with two division losses thus far. 

[Nuncha]

15 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Well, given what we've seen Tyrod and Mac freakin' Jones do to this D, wonder what Burrow, Mahomes, Hurts, Herbert, Dak, and Tua are gonna do!  Hell, even Baker will probably have a day!

Tua didn't do much the first outing, but we had White, Milano, Jones and Oliver back then.

[RyanC883]

14 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

One more thing: if we miss the playoffs, please fire head coach Sean McDermott.

but, um, injuries ( as if other teams don’t have them.). 

[MAJBobby]

They won’t Miss. and actually at the end of the day probably win the AFCE as well. 

[RyanC883]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

They won’t Miss. and actually at the end of the day probably win the AFCE as well. 

AFCE is looking softer than AFC South currently.  

[saundena]

15 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Just 3 weeks ago we beat almighty Dolphins by 28 points.

 

Now, after 3 games bad stretch, the sky is falling.

 

The overreaction today is really something else. Sometimes I wonder if some of you are watching their first season or what. Did SB winners always look unbeatable in W5-W7

One week is an overreaction.  3 weeks is a trend and represents over 17% of the season.

[Drew21PA]

I’m not optimistic

 

i don’t see them losing other than KC and philly

 

philly May be a blow out 

 

they lose to the bucks this Thursday - pack it in it’s over this team is toasted 

[Bob Jones]

44 minutes ago, zow2 said:

I think you're seeing the cream rise to the top... and as predicted it's going to be KC, Philly, SF and maybe Balt, Cinci and Jax with a legit shot to be spoilers and go on a run.  The Jets are not going to have the O.  The Dolphins, Lions, Bills, Cowboys and Chargers look like world beaters some weeks but all have flaws and will fail.

Haven’t seen any of their games, but Cincy is nowhere as good as they have been the last couple of years, are they?

[Bangarang]

Never thought I’d consider the game against the Bucs a toss up. Their defense could give us fits all night.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

18 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

but, um, injuries ( as if other teams don’t have them.). 

 

Everyone does - we're just running into a bunch at once of the season ending variety again.  

 

Just now, Bob Jones said:

Haven’t seen any of their games, but Cincy is nowhere as good as they have been the last couple of years, are they?

 

They're 3-3 and won 3/4 but they currently have one of the worst offenses in football.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Bangarang said:

Never thought I’d consider the game against the Bucs a toss up. Their defense could give us fits all night.

I'm picking a loss in that game, there's no way the bills should be favored.

 

[zow2]

29 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

Haven’t seen any of their games, but Cincy is nowhere as good as they have been the last couple of years, are they?

 

They have won a couple games when they were outplayed for large chunks.  That's a good sign for the D.  If Burrow is feeling good they are going to get right I think.  I would not count them out yet.  After the bye they will get SF without Deebo and maybe without McCaffrey.  

[Boatdrinks]

33 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Everyone does - we're just running into a bunch at once of the season ending variety again.  

 

 

They're 3-3 and won 3/4 but they currently have one of the worst offenses in football.  

The Bills have had a disturbing trend of making bad offenses look decent lately. Hopefully they figure it out. 

[Dr Divit]

To make matters worst.....Bills are in cap hell next year.....which means the only way to improve the team is via the draft.   Plus D Jones is a UFA next year.

 

[Radar]

7 minutes ago, Dr Divit said:

To make matters worst.....Bills are in cap hell next year.....which means the only way to improve the team is via the draft.   Plus D Jones is a UFA next year.

 

Yeah, and I got criticized for questioning Beane as a GM. I've said before he's not good managing the cap at all. Finally it's coming home to roost. This is not a quick off season fix. Several holes to fill.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Radar

[Success]

This Bills team is 100% making the playoffs - provided we can stay relatively healthy from here on out.

 

We're not getting blown out or anything.  Even w/ the injuries we have, we'll muster at least 10 wins. I'm still guessing 12.

 

Success in the playoffs depends on health.  I'm still holding out some hope for a return from Milano or Jones, or both.

 

[DapperCam]

Just now, Success said:

This Bills team is 100% making the playoffs - provided we can stay relatively healthy from here on out.

 

We're not getting blown out or anything.  Even w/ the injuries we have, we'll muster at least 10 wins. I'm still guessing 12.

 

Success in the playoffs depends on health.  I'm still holding out some hope for a return from Milano or Jones, or both.

 

What makes you think we can go 8-2 the rest of the season when we lose to the Pats and Jets, and should have lost to the Giants? It doesn’t seem realistic.

[Homey D. Clown]

17 hours ago, DapperCam said:

The more I look at it, the more I'm pretty sure we are going to miss the playoffs.

 

10-7 might make the wild card (also could miss on a tie breaker). So we have 4 losses left we can take. Here is our remaining schedule:

 

Tampa - Thursday Night Football is weird and sloppy. Tampa is better than the Pats and the Giants.
@ Cinci - Bengals had our number last year, they haven't played great so far
Denver - *Should* be a comfortable win
Jets - Already beat us once. Jets D has Allen's number.
@ Philly - 5-1 and Super Bowl team
@ KC - 5-1 and Super Bowl winners
Dallas - 4-2 team, very tough defense
@ Chargers - West coast road trips are rough, team has similar talent to Bills
Pats - Well, we just lost to them, so we can probably lose to them again
@ Miami - 5-1 team, we were able to beat them once (with a fully healthy defense though)

 

Games we should definitely win:
- Tampa

- Denver

Games that are toss ups:
- Cinci

- Chargers

- Jets

- Pats

- Miami

Games where the other team should be favored:

- Philly

- KC

- Dallas

Not a lot of room for error here! 😬😬😬😬😬

 

Careful, the rose colored glasses are thick around here...

[Success]

1 minute ago, DapperCam said:

What makes you think we can go 8-2 the rest of the season when we lose to the Pats and Jets, and should have lost to the Giants? It doesn’t seem realistic.

 

Because we have before.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I can’t go there yet. In fact, the bills could still win the division. I don’t have much reason to believe the Dolphins will beat any any of the good teams on their schedule. It’s likely coming down to week 17.

 

bills will likely have more divisional losses than the dolphins, and will be in a situation, where they need to sweep the Dolphins to beat them on a tiebreaker with the same overall record.

[RyanC883]

22 minutes ago, Dr Divit said:

To make matters worst.....Bills are in cap hell next year.....which means the only way to improve the team is via the draft.   Plus D Jones is a UFA next year.

 

 

curious from people who know the cap well.  How does this change if we can trade Knox and Miller prior to the deadline?

[Roundybout]

The AFC is a disaster so I think we get at least a wild card spot. 

[Gunsgoodtime]

28 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

curious from people who know the cap well.  How does this change if we can trade Knox and Miller prior to the deadline?

The two worst contracts currently on this team

[Gregg]

On the plus side the Bengals will probably lose to the 49ers this week. Unfortunately, the Fins will beat the Pats and the Jets will beat the Giants. The Bills better win on Thursday otherwise it will be a long 10 days until the Bengals game.

[LabattBlue]

48 minutes ago, Success said:

This Bills team is 100% making the playoffs - provided we can stay relatively healthy from here on out.

 

We're not getting blown out or anything.  Even w/ the injuries we have, we'll muster at least 10 wins. I'm still guessing 12.

 

Success in the playoffs depends on health.  I'm still holding out some hope for a return from Milano or Jones, or both.

 

12 wins?  Let’s see your list of the 8 remaining games that the Bills are going to win?

[BrooklynBills]

Our 4 wins are against teams with the following ranks defensively(using DVOA): Raiders (23rd), Commanders (22nd), Dolphins (27th), Giants (28th - and the offense looked terrible in this game).

3 losses are against teams with these rankings defensively: Jets (12th), Jaguars (8th), Patriots (14th).

 

We're almost halfway through the season. At this point, objectively, I don't think you can make a realistic argument for them beating a team with a top 15 defense the rest of the season (unless something drastic changes on the offensive side).

 

So that would look like this with the remaining schedule (with D rankings):

Tampa (10th) - L

@Cincy (20th) - W

Denver (32nd) - W

NYJ (12th) - L

@Philly (13th) - L

@KC (9th) - L

Dallas (4th) - L

@Chargers (26th) - W

NE (14th) - L

@Miami (27th) - W

 

Thats 4 Ws for the rest of the year and 1 of the games is at Cincy (which I'm not confident they'd win), at the Chargers (who have a top 10 offense which will be a challenge for our D), and at Miami (again - our D is a shell of what it was to start the year).

 

The next 4 games are basically gonna determine our season and are all "winnable" IMO. They "should" win 3/4 based on the talent level and Cincy is playing better but not the team they were last year. But this can go south in a hurry if the offense doesn't find itself fast.