Is Josh a mediocre QB right now? And does it matter?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

He hasnt been the same since the Ulnar injury, hopefully he can rediscover the form he had early last season.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

You thought that a guy who led the Bills to a 14 - 4 record (reg season & playoffs) and had:

 

4899 total passing yards with 38 total TD passes & 17 INT's

 

808 rushing yards with 8 TD's & 8 lost fumbles

 

For a combined total of 5707 yards, 46 TD's and 25 TO's needs a mulligan for that performance?

 

Now I agree that Allen has to many TO's but his yardage & TD production are elite. Sure, Allen can improve by cutting down the TO's but he didn't need a do over for last season. Keep the production where it is and cut down the TO by 5 and the Bills are likely in the Super Bowl.  That's a far cry from needing a mulligan.

 

 

In relative terms. Josh was still a good NFL Quarterback down the stretch last year but he wasn't the top 5 guy we had got used to. It was a mulligan on him not being close to his best level. I am not saying he was Carson Wentz or Daniel Jones or anything.

[White Linen]

18 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

You know I love ya, Lieutenant, but the premiere Allen partisan package *is* why some people say it's "out of bounds" to criticize Allen on this board.

 

I don't see it that way. 

 

If a QB who has shown that he's very well capable of better now has some mediocre metrics that are correlated to winning (like TD/INT) along with some that are outright putrid - like being 1 off the league lead for INT (after adjustments for things like maybe he's played more games than the other guys) - then I think fans should be able to talk about it and be concerned, hoping that Josh and the Bills organization have the intestinal fortitude to face it and fix it.

 

 

 

Not all have said criticizing Allen is out of bounds.   It's when you say he's edging towards Wentz,  when you should be criticized. 

 

I wish you had the intestinal fortitude to not go there when the data also says we're 15-4 in the last 19 games in which you think our QB has been so awful. 

 

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by White Linen

[RobbRiddick]

If I had my way I'd bring back Tyrod Taylor, that guy never threw picks

[newcam2012]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I wasn't saying he has sucked for 13 games. He has had some decent games in that time but only the Miami game where I thought he was elite level Josh.

I have lost a little confidence in Allen. Before the Jets game, I asked my my son what kind of Allen do we see tonight? His floor is just too low while his ceiling is very high. 

 

I think an elite QB needs to be more consistent and limit their turnovers. Josh hasn't been good in these two areas for a little too long. Starting to wonder if this is who Allen is? Feast or famine sort of speak. AKA: Brett Farve. 

[Drew21PA]

These threads will be gone over the next 2 days 

 

too reactionary to take seriously 

4 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

Not all have said criticizing Allen is out of bounds.   It's when you say he's edging towards Wentz, is when you should be criticized. 

 

I wish you had the intestinal fortitude to not go there when the data also says we're 15-4 in the last 19 games in which you think our QB needs has been so awful. 

Right?

[CoudyBills]

18 hours ago, Billl said:

His running is such a huge part of his game that anything omitting those stats is lacking.  He’s got 13 TDs and 23 fumbles over that period.

Yeah, add 23 more turnovers...that's gotta put him firmly at the top of wtf mountain.

[Dirtyd415]

16 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

These type of threads are why I absolutely fear the Bills pulling the plug on him cause people don’t realize how poor the team built around him is. 
He’s allowed his GM and Coach to build the defense while he has waxed over mistakes they’ve made in skill talent and oline.

Be careful what you wish for cause after Josh Allen leaves this franchise it is going into the wilderness for at least 5 years. 

What are you talking about??  The Bills have what is considered by many to be one of if not the most talented/stacked rosters from top to bottom in all of football.  That’s where so much of the frustration comes from.  As a whole this group massively underachieves at least 3-4 times a year.  Sometimes it’s regular season and  sometimes it’s playoffs, but with the collection of talent and such a strong locker room/Culture they should have been in several AFC title games or Superbowls.  Poor coaching  and a lack of composure and heart are the problems, not the talent on the roster.  This team has zero fight

[HOUSE]

We all know Josh is elite he just needs to stop with the HERO BALL

 

[Coldfronts]

After today's game you are going to be posting...Josh Allen is elite can any team stop him?

[Beck Water]

I'll just put this here. 

 

It was the para I ended my OP post with.

 

FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense.  But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there.  So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

 

That seems kind of inarguable to me, actually.

[Don Otreply]

Imo, Josh is “mostly” a one track mind QB,  in reality he is a spread system type QB, one or two good reads, pass or scramble guy, he doesn’t trust his teammates to do their jobs when the chips are down, and our OC and HC won’t let him know In concrete terms when he is f-ing up the game plan and reign him in, when Josh follows the scrip and takes available pass options he is very successful, but he isn’t consistent enough to do so on a regular basis, he could be a truly great QB, but at this rate, he will peak as a good QB, after all, it’s year six and he is still making bad decisions with frequency, this needs to change.

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

He hasnt been the same since the Ulnar injury, hopefully he can rediscover the form he had early last season.

 

Josh's recent errors do not appear to have anything to do with a physical injury.

 

They appear to be mental errors - making the wrong read or making a flat out stupid decision.

 

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

Imo, Josh is “mostly” a one track mind QB,  in reality he is a spread system type QB, one or two good reads, pass or scramble guy, he doesn’t trust his teammates to do their jobs when the chips are down, and our OC and HC won’t let him know In concrete terms when he is f-ing up the game plan and reign him in, when Josh follows the scrip and takes available pass options he is very successful, but he isn’t consistent enough to do so on a regular basis, he could be a truly great QB, but at this rate, he will peak as a good QB, after all, it’s year six and he is still making bad decisions with frequency, this needs to change.

 

Well, I think your opinion is partly wrong.  Josh has shown elite abilities to progress through all his reads and dissect a defense.  He advanced far beyond being the 1-2 read/pass or scramble guy he was when he came into the league in 2018.  You could see progress during Josh's 2019 season but by 2020 he was gone.

 

Josh couldn't "follow the script" and take available pass options at times, if he weren't able to dissect a defense and go through his reads.

 

It does appear to be Truth that Josh isn't doing so on a regular basis right now, and if he doesn't stop making bad decisions and become more consistent about this, for whatever reason, he will peak as a good QB or possibly even decline - no QB can inflict 4 TO per game on his team and be good.  He has to be brilliant to overcome that (to be fair, Josh has been brilliant at times and overcome), but "good" or 'mediocre" can not overcome.

 

3 hours ago, Coldfronts said:

After today's game you are going to be posting...Josh Allen is elite can any team stop him?

 

I would be delighted with that outcome

 

Speaking for myself, I'm not that much of a weathervane.  It took a pattern of multiple games laced with multiple bad decisions for me to generate this post, and it will take a pattern of multiple games from which multiple bad decisions are absent for me to post the above.

[Captain Hindsight]

We all feeling better?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Think he just faced two real tough defenses in a row in cincy and NYJ 

[Fallser]

OP, what’s up?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Josh's recent errors do not appear to have anything to do with a physical injury.

 

They appear to be mental errors - making the wrong read or making a flat out stupid decision.

 

 

 

Yes but maybe he wasn't confident from the injury which lead too bad habits that need to be eliminated now.

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 9/16/2023 at 1:24 PM, MPL said:

I'll admit that I have begun to have a growing concern that the Bills and Josh are teetering very close to the Carson Wentz trajectory. Of course, the Eagles made the difficult decisions and it's worked out well for them. Would the Bills ever do a thing like that? Probably not. 

(FWIW, I'm not advocating for anything drastic right now. Just going to watch it play out and hope for the best). 

Yeah, Allen is looking like Carson Wentz out there against that formidable Raiders defense. 

[Lfod]

When your team is good but have a bad game and fickle fans give up on the season. 

[Bob Jones]

26 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

We all feeling better?

Yes, since he’s basically doing what 99% of the posters in here said he should be doing….stop forcing deep balls, and instead, go underneath and take the easy completions.

[Chaos]

This is probably the dumbest thread title in TBD history. 

[John from Riverside]

I love whenever players make threads look silly
 

[Alphadawg7]

On 9/16/2023 at 9:48 AM, Beck Water said:

Now hear me out 😈

 

I started out 'salty' about the "Josh Allen most interceptions in last 2 years".  I said, said I, "but Josh has the most continuous starts of any player, let alone QB - so how does that play into it? And also, he throws a ton of passing TDs, so surely that compensates".   Since I'm a datageek, here's what I did:

-pulled regular season data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 out of pro-football-reference

-Excel pivot table to sum data by QB

-calculate interceptions, TD, 1D, and Yards per game, to normalize data for different numbers of starts

-multiply by 35 games to get it out of decimal form that is hard to interpret when we're used to thinking about integer numbers

 

This actually isn't what  I thought I was going to find.  I thought when normalized by starts, Josh Allen would NOT be leading in # of INT.  And he isn't - but he's one behind Davis Mills, tied with Sam Darnold, and one ahead of Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton.  Yikes!!!!!  That is not actually company you want your 6 yr vet, big-$$ QB to keep!  Or, I thought if he was still "up there", he would also be "up there" in passing TD to compensate.
 

So here are the data.  (Click to make it readable).  Sorted by TD/INT, Josh Allen is currently 17 on the list.  Now obviously, this isn't the be-all end-all of QB evaluation, since some of the QB listed above him by this metric, are literally unemployed at the moment (Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz), are backups (Case Keenum) or are retired (Brady). 

I recall Mike Tomlin benching Mason Rudolph after a multi-interception game, saying "we just need someone who won't kill us" (with turnovers).  So as a metric for how much a QB contributes to scoring vs. how much a QB hurts the team by ending possessions with the other team in position to score, I thought this was worth looking at.  And by this metric, allen is below starting Rodgers, Purdy, Goff, Cousins. Mahomes, Geno Smith, Burrow, Herbert, WILSON (!!!!!), Hurts, Prescott, and Tua.

 

Thoughts?  (I can sort it by other parameters if anyone cares).

 

FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense.  But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there.  So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

Appreciate the data work.  But…You just can’t analyze Josh as a QB and not factor his rushing TDs and production.  Any such comparison is incomplete and presents false conclusions.  

[Mr. WEO]

no

 

Q.E.D.

 

[Warcodered]

[Beck Water]

12 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Think he just faced two real tough defenses in a row in cincy and NYJ 

 

How did that Jets defense look vs Dallas?  But, if that's the story (4 TO vs good D, 0 TO vs mediocre D), how's the season's chances look?

 

12 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

We all feeling better?

 

Can't speak for "we".  Me, of course I am, but we're 1-1 on mistake-free Josh vs "turnover machine Josh"    I'd like to see more of the former.

 

11 hours ago, Chaos said:

This is probably the dumbest thread title in TBD history. 

 

I would love to get to the end of the season and have this be true.  No cap.

 

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

 

OP and some posters in it: "There seems to be a problem where our QB's multi-turnover games have gotten too frequent, like 1 out of 2 games"

You after 2 games, 1 good 1 bad: "This thread is obsolete, get ready for all these posters to turn tables"

 

Seriously? 

I mean we're all fans, we'd love that to be true, but one example on each side for something that looks like a 1 out of 2 pattern (and which included its share of wild-man plays) does not eliminate concern.

[Solomon Grundy]

Tim Hasselbeck calls Allen off schedule plays RECKLESS, but when Mahomes does it it's MAGIC. Make it make sense 🤷

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Tim Hasselbeck calls Allen off schedule plays RECKLESS, but when Mahomes does it it's MAGIC. Make it make sense 🤷

 

Sorry.  Can't do. (can't make it make sense)

Edited September 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[Aussie Joe]

 

 

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Tim Hasselbeck calls Allen off schedule plays RECKLESS, but when Mahomes does it it's MAGIC. Make it make sense 🤷

 

Mahomes has won two SBS so he gets a longer leash

[Airseven]

46 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

 

 

Mahomes has won two SBS so he gets a longer leash

+2 MVPs

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

How did that Jets defense look vs Dallas?  But, if that's the story (4 TO vs good D, 0 TO vs mediocre D), how's the season's chances look?

 

 

Can't speak for "we".  Me, of course I am, but we're 1-1 on mistake-free Josh vs "turnover machine Josh"    I'd like to see more of the former.

 

 

I would love to get to the end of the season and have this be true.  No cap.

 

 

They didn’t look good obviously but to be fair they were on the field for 42 minutes and the jets offense turned it over 4 times.

 

I mean how many really great defenses are there left on the schedule/we might see in the playoffs?  NYJ again… Dallas? Philly maybe? Cincy hasn’t looked as good this year.  Then you get to the AFC playoffs and who could we see in there…jets won’t be making it.  Seems like a majority of the elite defenses are in the NFC
 

I certainly didn’t mean josh always plays badly against great defenses lol we have torched NE quite a few times. If you have a bad day though things are more likely to snowball and week 1 is kind of a crapshoot to begin with. 

 

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Allen is #2 if Burrow continues his struggles 

[ddaryl]

If Allen can keep his head in check and stay on script instead of panicing when things don't go swimmingly then Allen is a HoF QB

Allen has to maintain composure, thats his ultimate weakness. When he is composed and things are flowing as intended he is unbeatable. When he pressures himself and starts going off script that is when Allen makes his most mistakes.

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, ddaryl said:

If Allen can keep his head in check and stay on script instead of panicing when things don't go swimmingly then Allen is a HoF QB

Allen has to maintain composure, thats his ultimate weakness. When he is composed and things are flowing as intended he is unbeatable. When he pressures himself and starts going off script that is when Allen makes his most mistakes.

 

off-script plays are a strength.....the decision making on where he throws the ball is the issue

[Low Positive]

3 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

 

 

Mahomes has won two SBS so he gets a longer leash

For this week? Everybody NfL talking head watched every snap of the Monday night game. They only watched highlights of the Raiders game. You can tell Hasselbeck didn’t watch the game because he talked about the Bills lack of a running game on a day when the Bills RBs ran for 183 with 2 TDs. So now he has to go on TV and talk about a bunch of games that he didn’t watch. He looks at the stats and see no TOs. Well that doesn’t fit what he planned to talk about. Well, let’s look at the highlights and see where there “could” have been TOs. That way he doesn’t  have to change his script. You’re going to see this from every single one of them this week, because nobody except Bills and Raiders fans watched this game.

[Don Otreply]

The Raiders game is a classic example of Josh following the script, and taking what a defense gives him, and as I stated up thread, he and the team were very successful doing so, I hope he has had the message drilled into his mind, I do think it will stick this time. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

How did that Jets defense look vs Dallas?  But, if that's the story (4 TO vs good D, 0 TO vs mediocre D), how's the season's chances look?

 

You more then most should know that transitive properties don't apply in football. 

 

BTW, in the 2nd quarter Sauce dropped what would have been an easy pick six.  I got a feeling that last Monday night he wouldn't have dropped that same pass from Allen.

 

 

[ddaryl]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

off-script plays are a strength.....the decision making on where he throws the ball is the issue

 

Not what I meant... When it happens on occasion when a play break down, yes Allen is great at making something out of nothing.

I'm talking about Allen abandoning the game plan when it isn't flowing perfectly for him and just reverting to hero ball Josh... We've seen his ugliest games when he does this. He's a won a few as well, but most of his crappy games come when he tires to do so much and his emotions take him competely off script.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

For this week? Everybody NfL talking head watched every snap of the Monday night game. They only watched highlights of the Raiders game. You can tell Hasselbeck didn’t watch the game because he talked about the Bills lack of a running game on a day when the Bills RBs ran for 183 with 2 TDs. So now he has to go on TV and talk about a bunch of games that he didn’t watch. He looks at the stats and see no TOs. Well that doesn’t fit what he planned to talk about. Well, let’s look at the highlights and see where there “could” have been TOs. That way he doesn’t  have to change his script. You’re going to see this from every single one of them this week, because nobody except Bills and Raiders fans watched this game.

Two factors are in play here:

 

1) Social media and streaming has led to a proliferation of so called NFL "experts".  As their numbers have increased the football IQ of their discussions has plummeted.

 

2) From before the 2018 draft there has been a negative take on Allen that refuses to disappear. Allen's extraordinary play has pushed it into the shadows but it springs back after even mediocre games and explodes back into view after a rare Allen bad game.  I don't know of another QB who gets this kind of treatment.  I guess when you make your living delivering hot takes on the NFL and you get it as wrong as these guys got it with Allen you can never let it go.