Is Josh a mediocre QB right now? And does it matter?

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Success said:

He was great last year until the UCL.

 

He kind of stunk up the joint in the 2nd half at GB and was not playing well in the Jets game, prior to the UCL.

 

So I dunno.

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

If I go by your statistical measurement stated in the OP and the conclusions are that Trevor Siemian and Case Keenum are better QBs in the

NFL than Josh Allen, then I will have to say your assumptions, using that data only, is incorrect.

 

If that's your interpretation based upon reading my post, then I would have to say that your reading comprehension, using this post as datum, needs help.

[Low Positive]

55 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

wentz had a much less substantial resume and fell off the cliff much harder on the field while being a jerk in the locker room to ice the cake

He also had serious injury issues, just like Cam. With Josh it’s all mental.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

I was a data geek in my job and now that I'm retired, I still have spreadsheets giving me "directions" in my personal life.

 

While I enjoy the data and statistics in football, there are so many variables that go into numbers like this.  When you add in the play

of the complete team rosters, scheduling, team placements in divisions and conferences, weather, coaching and simple good or bad luck

(just to name a few) I have to beware of their results.

 

Josh Allen is an elite athlete and is still young enough for none of us to know what his ultimate career results will be.

We all know how close the team (and by extension) Josh Allen was 2 years ago from winning it all.

My opinion FWIW (and that isn't much).

 

Fair point.

 

A couple years back - and by "a couple" probably 2016, 2017 or so - I was intrigued by an apparent focus on YPG as a metric for QB quality.

 

So I spent a good bit of time shakin' and bakin' different QB stats and whether they are or aren't correlated with winning.

 

Some stuff I learned:

-INT strong negative correlation with winning (more INT, less winning) - that's a "Durrr"

--ratio of TD to INT was a strong correlation with winning

-Fumbles only mild correlation, unless they're turnovers (then ~ same as INT)

-sacks same, mild correlation unless strip sack.

-YPG actually mild negative correlation (more passing yards, less winning).  I think that's because teams tend to pass like mad when they're behind.

-BUT correlations of other parameters with winning improved dramatically if I put in a "floor" of ~220 ypg passing

 

I don't think any of this is startling when you think about it, but, to your point about many variables - with INT and TD/INT ratio, I am looking at two specific variables that I previously sorted out as strongly correlated with wins

 

[White Linen]

25 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I share the concern that we're edging into Carson Wentz territory. 

 

 

 

This disqualifies you as a credible poster from here out.  It was already suspect.

[Maynard]

I think Kyle Allen is a must start at this time.

[MasterStrategist]

JMO, Josh is letting mistakes compound during games.

 

Said it earlier this week, but he starts pressing too much after his 1st turnover (sometimes) and what happened against the Jets.  

 

So I agree with those saying it's more mental.  QBs need to live with the motto "onto the next play", good or bad.

 

 I have full faith that he rebounds, we can see that tomorrow.  I've also said that Dorsey is a "small part" of the problem.  We need to get better balance, run game/variation in formations (ie: under center).  Small adjustments were what separated Daboll, at times.  He wasn't perfect either, but did have a knack for mixing in the Josh designed runs/trick plays/etc., that I've yet to see Dorsey adjust with.

 

Josh needs to be getting the ball out quicker/on-time.  I think he's questioning coverages/ability to hit a bigger play (more often).  Finding his groove again can happen at any point (tomorrow, week after), but sooner the better, more for the mental aspect and not letting confidence wane.

[78thealltimegreat]

These type of threads are why I absolutely fear the Bills pulling the plug on him cause people don’t realize how poor the team built around him is. 
He’s allowed his GM and Coach to build the defense while he has waxed over mistakes they’ve made in skill talent and oline.

Be careful what you wish for cause after Josh Allen leaves this franchise it is going into the wilderness for at least 5 years. 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I wasn't saying he has sucked for 13 games. He has had some decent games in that time but only the Miami game where I thought he was elite level Josh.

At least some of that had to be his elbow.  I'm not trying to make excuses but I am pretty sure a UCL in his throwing arm would have something to do with how he passes the ball.  It isn't a booboo that goes away in a couple weeks either.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

I share the concern that we're edging into Carson Wentz territory. 

Oh FFS Josh is not Wentz. This is just crazy. Josh had a bad game.  Josh has always had a stinker here and there.  

 

I don't like your data because technically, Allen shouldn't have even been playing last year after week 9. He also went through an OC change that year.  For the most part Allen's bad games come from bad games here and there... not through the whole season. As in most of his bad stats happen in all at once in a few games. You are comparing data against QBs that have either had stout olines or an elite receiving crew, or both.  We have had Diggs, a revolving door oline, and guys that either don't get open, drop the ball, or do disastrous things with the ball like little dirty.  Oh and some guys that were over the hill and brought back on late season.

 

We were tied for second highest scoring offense last season.  Second only to the Chiefs. That was with one game less than everyone else not named the Bengals, who we are tied for second with.  This isn't because we had a running game.  For all of Josh's mediocrity, he managed to do that last year while practically carrying his team and with a UCL injury.  But yeah, let's compare him to Wentz.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Scott7975

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 hours ago, Success said:

 

He was great last year until the UCL.

 

Unexpected Crazy Lifestyle?  I haven't seen this much confusion since Robbie Douglas (My Three Sons) had two dates at the same time.  And then, 50 years later, Diggs repeats the stunt.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Good article in Today's Athletic, was titled "How do you tame a wild quarterback like Josh Allen".  I'm not going to post a link as if you don't have a sub, can't read it.

 

It talked about Brett Farve never having less than 13 Int's a year and better than a 2.3% Int rate.  At age 40 Brad Childress was his coach and calmed him down though Childress gives much of the credit to DC Leslie Frazier who was a calming influence to him.  It also contained a fair amount of comments from Kevin Gilbide who is working at breaking down Monday Night games

 

His points were defenses have figured him out:

 

“I would take away the quick throws outside,” Gilbride said. “Right now he’s much more comfortable throwing the clear, easy-to-read stuff outside the numbers. I would play as much quarters coverage (as I could) to force him to read stuff in the middle of the field, force him to see the high-low stuff and make decisions. I’m not sure he’s reading those things at all. That’s what I would do to slow him down.”

 

Allen for the most part has not displayed the ability to be patient.  He can for stretches of time, but then tends to revert back to the reckless side of things.  in the past after a game like last week, the good Josh will be on display this week, but for how long is the question??

[Radar]

This fn stupid. I'm losing it with some of this world renown fan base.

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

At least some of that had to be his elbow.  I'm not trying to make excuses but I am pretty sure a UCL in his throwing arm would have something to do with how he passes the ball.  It isn't a booboo that goes away in a couple weeks either.

 

I agree I basically gave him a mulligan last year for that reason. But then you see some of the same issues this year and you think how much was elbow vs how much is decision making.

[Green Lightning]

3 hours ago, julian said:

Wtf is going on with this fan base

They see a elite QB refusing coaching, playing immature football, poor coaching with a SB window closing. They want to win a SB with JA17 in his prime and not see another Billsy chapter in what could have been. 

[Beck Water]

45 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

At least some of that had to be his elbow.  I'm not trying to make excuses but I am pretty sure a UCL in his throwing arm would have something to do with how he passes the ball.  It isn't a booboo that goes away in a couple weeks either.

 

IMO you're making a valid point, and it's why I feel he had more games that showed him to be an "elite QB" after the UCL injury than @GunnerBill's "one elite game".  I felt he had games where he was showing patience, judgement, and care with the ball - just not racking up 'elite passing numbers'

 

I've also made the point in other threads that the UCL clouds any assessment of Dorsey as an OC and of Josh's QB play for last season.

 

That said, IMO some of the TO Josh had at that point - the Detroit game, the Bears game, the Miami playoff game - had nothing to do with his elbow and everything to do with field reads/decision making, and were very concerning.

 

15 minutes ago, Radar said:

This fn stupid. I'm losing it with some of this world renown fan base.

 

OK

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[julian]

4 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

They see a elite QB refusing coaching, playing immature football, poor coaching with a SB window closing. They want to win a SB with JA17 in his prime and not see another Billsy chapter in what could have been. 

That’s gotta be a shi**y place to be mentally… poor ba*tards

[Riverboat Ritchie]

3 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Fear that the dream is over. If Josh has really morphed back into his rookie self, this franchise is absolutely screwed for the next decade. Josh has a 99 million dead cap hit. 

99.9999 percent of us couldn’t play QB physically or mentally. Josh is definitely one of bestphysically but seems to have struggles keeping it together mentally. That stretch from end of 21 to start of 22 till half of Green Bay game was magical. There has to be a way to get him tuned into that Josh.  Go Bills 

[Radar]

I'm now eighty years old. Been a Bills fan from heir inception. If the OP is referring to mediocre then I have to wonder if he's been around the last few decades. Not counting age 0-18.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Good article in Today's Athletic, was titled "How do you tame a wild quarterback like Josh Allen".  I'm not going to post a link as if you don't have a sub, can't read it.

 

It talked about Brett Farve never having less than 13 Int's a year and better than a 2.3% Int rate.  At age 40 Brad Childress was his coach and calmed him down though Childress gives much of the credit to DC Leslie Frazier who was a calming influence to him.  It also contained a fair amount of comments from Kevin Gilbide who is working at breaking down Monday Night games

 

His points were defenses have figured him out:

 

“I would take away the quick throws outside,” Gilbride said. “Right now he’s much more comfortable throwing the clear, easy-to-read stuff outside the numbers. I would play as much quarters coverage (as I could) to force him to read stuff in the middle of the field, force him to see the high-low stuff and make decisions. I’m not sure he’s reading those things at all. That’s what I would do to slow him down.”

 

Allen for the most part has not displayed the ability to be patient.  He can for stretches of time, but then tends to revert back to the reckless side of things.  in the past after a game like last week, the good Josh will be on display this week, but for how long is the question??

 

https://theathletic.com/4867821/2023/09/16/josh-allen-bills-quarterback-turnovers/

 

Your Gilbride quote is interesting, because when Dorsey was grilled during his presser on how he tries to help settle Josh down ---- one of the things he said he does is call the plays Josh is most comfortable with, the ones he can "do in his sleep"

 

So if I'm interpreting your quot of what Gilbride said correctly, Dorsey may be doing the OPPOSITE of what he should be doing, since the clear, easy to read stuff outside the numbers make Josh most predictable.

 

Isn't it a bit of an oxymoron (or some such term) to say that Allen has not displayed the ability to be patient and then say he can for stretches of time.  If he can, than he has?

[Beck Water]

58 minutes ago, Radar said:

I'm now eighty years old. Been a Bills fan from heir inception. If the OP is referring to mediocre then I have to wonder if he's been around the last few decades. Not counting age 0-18.

 

You know, I presented some data.

 

People can (and have) quite legitimately question the relevance of the data, raise points about what is or isn't included in the data, or just say "I don't like your data"  (data doesn't care, but their feelings are legit)

 

But when it comes to the ad hominem of questioning how long the data preparer has been a Bills fan and has been around the last few decades -

 

C'mon Man.

 

I believe I'm on record about how old I am and how long I've been a Bills fan and what my oldest Bills fan memories are.  But the data are the data, regardless.

 

PS we should never have traded Lamonica.

 

1 hour ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

99.9999 percent of us couldn’t play QB physically or mentally. Josh is definitely one of bestphysically but seems to have struggles keeping it together mentally. That stretch from end of 21 to start of 22 till half of Green Bay game was magical. There has to be a way to get him tuned into that Josh.  Go Bills 

 

I hope so, and I hope Josh and the Bills leave no stone unturned to get him there.  Go Bills.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water