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Ed Oliver big extension


HappyDays

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2 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I’m certainly not against signing Ed long term like this, but I think letting him play out his contract year and then having the franchise tag in your pocket if he popped was the best move. The justification for doing this now would be if we were making more cap room to add a DHop or other piece whatever that may be. But I think they just value him more than most on the board do.

Sean will always value his underperforming defensive players over anything remotely offensive. It's how he's wired.

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21 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Good teams who want to stay good, Draft, Develop and then sign their own players.  

 

This is the goal of every organization.  I imagine this will help get cap space for this season because 1.4 m is not going to work.

They used the # 9 pick to draft a penetrating DT that gets 2.5 sacks a year...they developed him to continue to get low production. Not to sure this is what good teams do.

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So, with the entirety of the contract (including this year), his value comes in as the 16th highest DT in the league.  With 32 teams in the NFL, he's getting upper/midtier money for a #1 DT.  While he's not a top 10 DT or anything like that, he is a solid player and does have games every year that he seems to just take over.  That said, there are other games you don't know that he's playing in.  Like so many guys on our team, it is about him finding consistency.  He has to find a way to have those dominant games on a more regular basis. 

 

But the fact is, he was going to be a FA at the end of the season and this is what happens in the NFL when contracts come up......lesser guys make more money than it seems they should and then they get passed by from other contracts and other players.  The cap is skyrocketing and agents know this.  The money is going to get bigger and bigger at every position and even guys that you don't think should get paid will GET PAID.  It was Oliver's turn and good for him and his family.  Hopefully he balls out and becomes the player we hope he will because if he does, the contract won't look nearly that bad.  But yes, that's the gamble that Beane took here.  Just have to hope it pays off.

Edited by sven233
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1 minute ago, Capco said:

This move:

  1. keeps the DT position foreseeably stable
  2. might free up some cap space this year
    • the guaranteed money is always what you look at, not the total salary
    • does the $45mil figure include the $10mil from his rookie contract since that was already fully guaranteed?
    • how much much of the guaranteed money is from the signing bonus?
  3. probably gives us an manageable out in 3 years, so think of it more as a 2 year extension
  4. gives us some off-season entertainment

Did no one tell you you're not allowed to insert logic into your post on TBD? :D 

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This is pretty in keeping w the FO philosophy of extending good scheme fits/process guys who probably have more value here than to other teams because they lack elite NFL traits

 

The way the league is trending it seems like an outdated approach imo

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If the structure is such that low cap this year this is one move I thought they would have to do to get DHop space. 
 

his cap hit was always the one I came to in order to find space. 

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2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Sean will always value his underperforming defensive players over anything remotely offensive. It's how he's wired.

Your delusional if you think this is on McD. The Bills analytic team goes over these things... McD and his staff goes over these things... Claiming a HC is underperforming Defensive players over anything on offense is really every part of wrong. 

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3 minutes ago, Pirate Angel said:

They used the # 9 pick to draft a penetrating DT that gets 2.5 sacks a year...they developed him to continue to get low production. Not to sure this is what good teams do.

 

Well if you study the good teams, they develop and sign their own.  Not everyone is a superstar or all pro player.  DT is a tricky position in the nfl and I imagine compared to who will be available in the draft next year and in free agency they liked the player enough to keep him here.  

 

This is not a contract that will stop the bills from being active in free agency nor will it cost them players on the roster they want to keep long term.

 

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1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

Signing an average DT that gives us the same production that Oliver does for less money would also keep it stable.

 

But if Oliver lives up to his potential and blows it out of the water, then we have a top 10 DT on a very reasonable contract.  If he doesn't, then we still have a decent DT and can probably move on in 3 years.

The risk-reward balance is a factor.  If you have a crystal ball and know with absolute certainty that Oliver will never get any better, then it would seem obvious that this wasn't a good move.  

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11 minutes ago, BillyBilliams said:

 

However, him only costing $17M a year is a steal.  That ranks him 11th on the pay scale at his position, and this doesn't include players like Quinnen Williams.

 

Just because a player is the 12th best player at his position in the league (which is debatable IMO) doesn't mean you have to pay him that way. We let Edmunds walk for similar reasons. This devotes even more future cap space to the DL after a tremendous over-investment in that group over the past few years, which gives us less flexibility to pay game changing players around Allen.

 

I can't find any logic for this extension. It is totally unnecessary IMO and in fact it may lead to Oliver not playing to his best level this year because he has no incentive to push himself to be greater.

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4 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Your delusional if you think this is on McD. The Bills analytic team goes over these things... McD and his staff goes over these things... Claiming a HC is underperforming Defensive players over anything on offense is really every part of wrong. 

 

Based on what?

 

I've always been skeptical that McD is the real boss.

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13 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Beane and McD continue to make a mess of the DL.   A lot of dollars and picks spent and still mediocre results. 

You forgot to add ‘for a 3peat Division Champion with numerous top 5 Defensive rankings.’ 
Oterwise, you’re spot on 😉👍

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2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Just because a player is the 12th best player at his position in the league (which is debatable IMO) doesn't mean you have to pay him that way. We let Edmunds walk for similar reasons. 

 

Say it louder for those in the back :) 

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3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I can't find any logic for this extension. It is totally unnecessary IMO and in fact it may lead to Oliver not playing to his best level this year because he has no incentive to push himself to be greater.


The only possible “logic” i can think of is that they want to free up some money for an acquisition this year ( D Hop? ) and don’t want to kick any (more) money down the road for Tre and Dawkins 

 

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13 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Metaphorically on this board? Yes. "Spewed hyperbole" is in regards to how bad the whipping boys actually are in comparison to how they're spoken of.

 

Oliver isn't consistent. But when he's on, he's dominant. His play fell off when Von Miller went down. When he was playing and teams weren't focusing on Ed, he was playing more consistently good than bad.

 

 

So that means for 11 games of his career, he's been dominant.

 

Metaphorically dominant, I assume you meant....

 

As for the last guy TBD posters "ran out of town", the Bills entire organization agreed.   Good, not as bad as we said, whatever...they concluded he wasn't worth keeping----without our help.

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Honestly thought we may actually get a solid year of production out of Ed because he was playing for another contract but now…

 

I hope Beane is right on this one because imo “potential” doesn’t deserve a contract even close to sniffing proven elite DTs like Q. Williams and Chris Jones. Ed needs to show up now that’s he’s got his money

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15 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I’m certainly not against signing Ed long term like this, but I think letting him play out his contract year and then having the franchise tag in your pocket if he popped was the best move. The justification for doing this now would be if we were making more cap room to add a DHop or other piece whatever that may be. But I think they just value him more than most on the board do.

This sums it up perfectly.

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Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Just because a player is the 12th best player at his position in the league (which is debatable IMO) doesn't mean you have to pay him that way. We let Edmunds walk for similar reasons. This devotes even more future cap space to the DL after a tremendous over-investment in that group over the past few years, which gives us less flexibility to pay game changing players around Allen.

 

I can't find any logic for this extension. It is totally unnecessary IMO and in fact it may lead to Oliver not playing to his best level this year because he has no incentive to push himself to be greater.

It's the way they do things and I agree w you, I think it's just as risky cap management giving the Ed Olivers and Taron Johnsons of the world good deals as it is taking big swings on DeAndre Hopkins etc

 

I mean it's commendable they have a system that can utilize guys without elite pro traits but you end up w a ton of capital that isn't valuable anywhere outside Buffalo

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  • Process changed the title to Possible to revoke Beane's DL privileges?
2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It's the way they do things and I agree w you, I think it's just as risky cap management giving the Ed Olivers and Taron Johnsons of the world good deals as it is taking big swings on DeAndre Hopkins etc

 

I mean it's commendable they have a system that can utilize guys without elite pro traits but you end up w a ton of capital that isn't valuable anywhere outside Buffalo

 

Don't bring Taron into this!

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I understand that DTs, especially ones that can provide a decent pass rush, are scarce. Oliver is a good DT, but even with that said I don’t get $17M AAV on the extension. There’s no way to look at that and not see a substantial overpay. 

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2 minutes ago, MJS said:

I guess the coaches don't think he sucks after all. That's why you don't read between the lines, people.

 

Not sure how you infer that.

 

Coaches and front offices disagree all the time.

 

The Titans front office literally traded WR AJ Brown to Philly last year despite Head Coach Vrabel railing against it. After AJ Brown went off the next season, they fired the GM for making the wrong choice and Vrabel got a status boost.

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