Who will be 2nd in targets?

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

A rookie TE isn’t going to log the second largest workload IMO … #17 is still going to look for Davis deep …

[Royale with Cheese]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Kincaid will get starter reps from game 1.  Base your target estimates on that. 

 

We have tried several times to have that second good option at TE with Hollister, OJ Howard and Tyler Kroft...Kroft was okay and Hollister/Howard didn't even make it.

They have been looking for a good option at this position and Kincaid gives him that.  

 

I honestly don't think its out of the question that Kincaid will #2 in targets.  Allen loved going to Beasley and he had his most productive years in Buffalo...that's Kincaid now.  He also gives you that vertical threat because it's going to be hard to have a LB that can keep up with him down the seam.  

[In Summary]

7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I voted Davis.   But I think the targets to folks not named Diggs or Davis will go up this year.  Sherfield and Kincaid will both be important pieces of this offense.  

 

But who's Hardy?   Did one of the Hardy Boys/Boyz join the Bills?

 

 

I didn't know who Hardy was but I apparently voted for him.  I struggle to hit the right button.  

 

Agree with you on Davis.  Josh throws downfield.  Shakir not as trusted as Davis. Kincaid ..........he's a rookie.

[Nephilim17]

I don't think Kincaid will get more than Davis but I'm fairly certain he'll get more than Knox. Kincaid's the new safety valve. Beasley with 60 lb. and far fewer annoying Tweets. Knox never was and will likely never be that.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Nephilim17

[schoolhouserock]

I went with Davis, but there is certainly a path for Kincaid.

 

The 2015 Panthers leading target getter was, by a pretty wide margin, Greg Olsen (124 targets vs the runner up, Ginn Jr at 97). I don’t recall if they had Olsen in the Y (like Knox) or the F (presumably like Kincaid).

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Davis. He is still a big part of the offense and I think of his ankles stay healthy should have a big season.

2 straight years with ankle problems and the drops will transition Dalton to 2nd most targets.  I think this will be Gabes's last season as a Bill.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

The order in the poll is my order for the targets after Diggs.

 

I think Kincaid is going to be Josh's new safety blanket, like the comparisons to Beasley's targets but bigger and probably adds more in the redzone. 

He will be more reliable than Davis IMO.

 

 

IMO this year, Davis. Next year, Kincaid.

 

 

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

Kincaid will get starter reps from game 1.  Base your target estimates on that. 

 

 

Yeah, almost certainly not.

 

Not impossible, but very unlikely.

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

40 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

I went with Davis, but there is certainly a path for Kincaid.

 

The 2015 Panthers leading target getter was, by a pretty wide margin, Greg Olsen (124 targets vs the runner up, Ginn Jr at 97). I don’t recall if they had Olsen in the Y (like Knox) or the F (presumably like Kincaid).

 

 

???

 

Yeah, but 2015 was Olsen's 9th year in the league and 5th year on the Panthers.

 

In Olsen's rookie year he had 66 targets, and in his first year with the Panthers, which was his fifth year in the NFL, he had 89 targets.

 

 

[AuntieEm]

10 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I would pump the breaks on Kincaid being number 2 in targets.....I would not say its not possible but it is not likely.   Rookie TE's in general dont perform that way and I get he is kind of a slot TE.  The favorite for #2 in targets should be Gabe Davis.

 

   I actually think we are gonna see all his receiving players get a balanced target numbers.  Best way to keep opponents off- balance is by being as balanced as you can be.  So I expect Josh will use the extra time he'll have to find the best player if they need to burn clock we will see more runs or even screens to Murray.  Being 6'3" he can out jump most defenders.  And we need the short yardage well Murray can pound out those yards when needed so Josh won't need to.

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

The obvious answer is Davis because he will almost certainly have the most snaps out of all skill position players. Last year he even had 90 more snaps than Diggs despite playing in one less game. That kind of snap percentage lends itself to a high target share. Hopefully he maximizes those targets much better than he did last year.

 

Third in targets is where it gets interesting. Harty is a sneaky pick there. I feel like he is the stealth signing of the offseason, nobody in local or national media is really talking about him at all and this board has all but forgotten about him. We gave him a decently large contract considering his injury history. So I have to think he will be more involved than the lack of buzz would have you believe.

 

So my predicted target share ranking is this:

 

Diggs

Davis

Harty

Kincaid

Knox

Cook

Shakir

 

And the scraps will go to the remaining depth pieces.

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by HappyDays

[Sierra Foothills]

46 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

2 straight years with ankle problems and the drops will transition Dalton to 2nd most targets.  I think this will be Gabes's last season as a Bill.

 

Davis was also battling a thumb injury during the second half of the season.

 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

The obvious answer is Davis because he will almost certainly have the most snaps out of all skill position players. Last year he even had 90 more snaps than Diggs despite playing in one less game. That kind of snap percentage lends itself to a high target share. Hopefully he maximizes those targets much better than he did last year.

 

Third in targets is where it gets interesting. Harty is a sneaky pick there. I feel like he is the stealth signing of the offseason, nobody in local or national media is really talking about him at all and this board has all but forgotten about him. We gave him a decently large contract considering his injury history. So I have to think he will be more involved than the lack of buzz would have you believe.

 

So my predicted target share ranking is this:

 

Diggs

Davis

Harty

Kincaid

Knox

Cook

Shakir

 

And the scraps will go to the remaining depth pieces.

 

Even the poll can't get Harty's name right. He should just change it to Hardy and save everybody the trouble. I agree he is a rather forgotten man who is a more important piece in their overall plan. I see a diverse set of weapons and an improved IOL. I am assuming Josh will be fully recovered from any lingering injuries. It's up to Dorsey to make full use of a nicely stocked offensive roster. One neglected aspect of picking up Kincaid is he will likely take some of the blocking responsibilities that have been previously assigned to Davis which should allow WR2 to concentrate more exclusively on catching. Not sure it will help much, but it shouldn't hurt. 

[GunnerBill]

I'm pretty certain it will be Gabe. I think come 2024 Kincaid will be in the running (Gabe will likely be gone). But I expect some growing pains in the Bills finding their way with their 11 and a half personnel as Beane called it.

[hondo in seattle]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

The obvious answer is Davis because he will almost certainly have the most snaps out of all skill position players. Last year he even had 90 more snaps than Diggs despite playing in one less game. That kind of snap percentage lends itself to a high target share. Hopefully he maximizes those targets much better than he did last year.

 

Third in targets is where it gets interesting. Harty is a sneaky pick there. I feel like he is the stealth signing of the offseason, nobody in local or national media is really talking about him at all and this board has all but forgotten about him. We gave him a decently large contract considering his injury history. So I have to think he will be more involved than the lack of buzz would have you believe.

 

So my predicted target share ranking is this:

 

Diggs

Davis

Harty

Kincaid

Knox

Cook

Shakir

 

And the scraps will go to the remaining depth pieces.

 

 

Sherfield had 51 targets with Miami last season and did well with his opportunities.  Why did we sign him if we're not going to throw to him?

 

 

[schoolhouserock]

23 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

???

 

Yeah, but 2015 was Olsen's 9th year in the league and 5th year on the Panthers.

 

In Olsen's rookie year he had 66 targets, and in his first year with the Panthers, which was his fifth year in the NFL, he had 89 targets.

 

 

Dorsey and Shula overlapped at the panthers from 2013-2017.

 

Olsen:

2013 - #1 in targets

2014 - #2 in targets

2015 - #1 in targets

2016 - #1 in targets

2017 - injured in Week 2 (against the Bills no less) He went onto IR for much do that season.

 

I understand that Olsen was into his prime at that time, but part of the equation was knowing how to use him.

 

I voted for Davis, but this poll is not outrageous. With both Dorsey and Shula on this Bills offensive staff, there is a path for Kincaid targets. It is exactly why this could end up being a really good first round pick.

[PrimeTime101]

I can't put my money on Davis another year.. Year after year of ankle injures. he turned into sammy watkins jr.  People that say a rookie won't get the #2 in targets i think its tough..

 

Lets put it this way... I think what Kincaid and Davis gets, as the year goes it gets closer and closer. I think Kincaid targets will only slightly be higher so I choose Kincaid. 

 

People need to stop living in the past with Knox not getting targets. Knox was not getting open enough and had drop issues early on.. A QB loses faith after a while. 

 

Just because throws to knox were not often enough, does not mean they were  not called. 

[LABILLBACKER]

23 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Davis was also battling a thumb injury during the second half of the season.

 

The best ability is availability. 

[AuntieEm]

10 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Sherfield had 51 targets with Miami last season and did well with his opportunities.  Why did we sign him if we're not going to throw to him?

 

 

 

Josh will be throwing to all his weapons. Even Murray is pretty good as a pass catching rb and he's a big target.  

 

[QLBillsFan]

10 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

I think the bigger question is who will be 3rd.  I might have to go with Shakir and then  Knox and Kincaid.  If Shakir takes over the old Beasley stuff plus plays outside for Davis and Diggs on occasion I think he could see a lot of targets.  If Knox and Kincaid both catch between 40 and 60 balls I'd consider that a win compared to Knox and Morris/Sweeney.  If Kincaid catches 40 balls I'll be happy.  Sixty or more and I'll start listening to talk about him being the next Kelce or something of that ilk. 

Davis 2 then Kincaid 3 based on 2nd half of year Knox and Shakir after 

[VW82]

The results of the poll are probably accurate. Kincaid is so far beyond Davis in terms of talent that defenses will be forced to double team him in addition to shading extra defenders on Diggs. Davis will be so wide open that Josh will have no choice but to prioritize him when it comes to targets.

Edited May 2, 2023 by VW82

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Diggs

 

 

[Sierra Foothills]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

Diggs

 

 

 

https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx3Uqks1YxWxpVJGY9VOTaTEGwyJxYIRvi

[John from Riverside]

Davis this year only because our new star tight end is a rookie

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, schoolhouserock said:

Dorsey and Shula overlapped at the panthers from 2013-2017.

 

Olsen:

2013 - #1 in targets

2014 - #2 in targets

2015 - #1 in targets

2016 - #1 in targets

2017 - injured in Week 2 (against the Bills no less) He went onto IR for much do that season.

 

I understand that Olsen was into his prime at that time, but part of the equation was knowing how to use him.

 

I voted for Davis, but this poll is not outrageous. With both Dorsey and Shula on this Bills offensive staff, there is a path for Kincaid targets. It is exactly why this could end up being a really good first round pick.

 

 

"Part of the equation was knowing how to use him," you say? Yeah, fair enough, part of it.

 

Yeah, but for a rookie, I'd argue that him knowing how to be used is a lot bigger part of the equation than the OC knowing how to use him.

 

When 2013 got here, Olsen was already a canny, wizened 7th year veteran.

 

More, those low WR target numbers may well have been a result of having Cam Newton throwing, and of having some poor WR groups.

 

 

 

2013 Steve Smith 745 yards, #2 Brandon LaFell 627

2014 Kelvin Benjamin 1008 yards, #2 Cotchery 580

2015 Ted Ginn Jr. 739 yards, #2 Cotchery 485

2016 Kelvin Benjamin 941 yards, #2 Ginn Jr. 752

2017 (even with Olsen injured most of the year and receiving only 38 targets) Devin Funchess 840 yards, #2 WR ...

-------------------(not counting RB McCaffrey's 651) Kelvin Benjamin 475

 

Put another way, they had one WR that whole four years that (twice) beat out Gabriel Davis' 2022 total yards, both by our oold friend Kelvin Benjamin, 1008 yards in 2014 and 941 yards in 2016.

 

Those were deeply unusual teams in terms of how they threw the ball. And yes, having Olsen there may have been part of that, but again I'd argue that a lot larger part would have been having Cam Newton at QB and a pretty bad WR group the whole time.

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Big Turk]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

2 straight years with ankle problems and the drops will transition Dalton to 2nd most targets.  I think this will be Gabes's last season as a Bill.

 

Almost assuredly is. Smart teams don't give 2nd contracts to #2 WRs, they draft their replacements. No coincidence Shorter who was drafted  this year has a near identical receiving skill set to Davis.

[schoolhouserock]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

"Part of the equation was knowing how to use him," you say? Yeah, fair enough, part of it.

 

Yeah, but for a rookie, I'd argue that him knowing how to be used is a lot bigger part of the equation than the OC knowing how to use him.

 

When 2013 got here, Olsen was already a canny, wizened 7th year veteran.

 

More, those low WR target numbers may well have been a result of having Cam Newton throwing, and of having some poor WR groups.

 

 

 

2013 Steve Smith 745 yards, #2 Brandon LaFell 627

2014 Kelvin Benjamin 1008 yards, #2 Cotchery 580

2015 Ted Ginn Jr. 739 yards, #2 Cotchery 485

2016 Kelvin Benjamin 941 yards, #2 Ginn Jr. 752

2017 (even with Olsen injured most of the year and receiving only 38 targets) Devin Funchess 840 yards, #2 WR ...

-------------------(not counting RB McCaffrey's 651) Kelvin Benjamin 475

 

Put another way, they had one WR that whole four years that (twice) beat out Gabriel Davis' 2022 total yards, both by our oold friend Kelvin Benjamin, 1008 yards in 2014 and 941 yards in 2016.

 

Those were deeply unusual teams in terms of how they threw the ball. And yes, having Olsen there may have been part of that, but again I'd argue that a lot larger part would have been having Cam Newton at QB and a pretty bad WR group the whole time.

 

 

All great points.

[Drew21PA]

Here’s one

 

whcih one listed out of your list won’t even make the team?  Or see the field

 

insee a lot of Harty- have a feeling he won’t even see the field 

[bigK14094]

22 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Davis. He is still a big part of the offense and I think of his ankles stay healthy should have a big season.

His ankles don't account for 9 drops in 91 targets imho.  that can be fixed with work to improve his hands.  Lets hope he in doing that.

[wppete]

 

[Kaenon]

172 votes and only 1 for Sherrfield.

Who voted, Sherrrfield? 

 

jk....

[Einstein's Dog]

I go another direction and go with write in candidate James Cook.  The outlet pass was meant for last season and is just running a year behind.  The Josh/Dorsey/Cook problems should get worked out - Josh's elbow, Cook/Dorsey rookie years.  Plus if they have Kincaid run across the middle the swing pass to Cook opens up even more.

 

To be second in targets all Cook needs is about 4 - 5 per game - that would put him well past the 48 targets that were second in 2022 (tied between Davis and Dawson).  Cook should get the lion share of Singletary's 38 targets from last year - and Cook had 21 himself.

[Royale with Cheese]

31 minutes ago, wppete said:

 

 

Prediction.

 

Kincaid:

80 targets

55 receptions

700 yards

6 TD's

[Dr. Who]

7 hours ago, wppete said:

 

Lot of folks on this board think they know football better than Josh apparently.

[Figster]

Looks like a long shot in the polls, but staying with Shakir having a breakout season as number 2 in receptions.

 

It will go Diggs, Shakir, Davis, Knox, Kincaid top 5 IMO.

 

Josh Allen has plenty of play makers around him now that want touches. Making for a very interesting season coming up If Dorsey can find ways to utilze them all with good ball distribution. 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

4 hours ago, Figster said:

Looks like a long shot in the polls, but staying with Shakir having a breakout season as number 2 in receptions.

 

It will go Diggs, Shakir, Davis, Knox, Kincaid top 5 IMO.

 

Josh Allen has plenty of play makers around him now that want touches. Making for a very interesting season coming up If Dorsey Josh can find ways to utilze them all with good ball distribution. 

Fixed it for you. Lot of times last year when Josh had the short pass but just took off running. It's definitely on Josh to use the dump offs.

[HurlyBurly51]

On 5/1/2023 at 1:09 PM, UKBillFan said:

Diggs. Josh will remain upset with him so, until a counselling session during the bye, he won't see the ball.

 

😉

ala Kelly/Reed😅

[Rockinon]

Remember the whole reason for having a reliable slot receiver is to get one of the safeties to move up.  Why? Because it leaves one of the outside WRs in 1 on 1 coverage. That is where Josh was making his money before defenses started doubling the outside receivers last year. Kincaid or whoever is playing the slot role is going to see plenty of targets just to force a safety to play shallow instead of deep. I think this is the real reason Kincaid was drafted in the 1st round.

 

I voted Kincaid, but I am now questioning my own vote, because there seems to be a committee of slot receivers, plus we know that all of the receivers must play both slot and outside in this offense. Plus, Knox is still going to get some reps too. The beauty is that none of us can really predict who will be second in targets and that is by design. It will depend on how defenses play us. It will depend on who is most effective playing that slot role. I believe the offense is designed so that multiple receivers must play slot. Even Diggs occasionally caught passes across the middle. Perhaps having someone else going across the middle will save wear and tear on our outside receivers too.

 

Kincaid has a chance to see more reps because he is bigger and can block in the open and because he can also go into presnap motion and catch balls out of the backfield. He was also effective blocking for RBs. This is way different than putting a smurf in at slot. It is also a great way to disguise what the play will be, because of these additional things that Kincaid does. When a smurf is on the field, the defense knows the only thing he is going to do is run a slot route. He isn't going to block, he isn't going to run downfield and block for a running back. And sure as hell isn't going to stay in and block for the QB.

 

I think Davis may actually end up being the biggest benefactor if one of those safeties decides to leave him in 1 on 1.  All Josh has to do spread the ball around, hit those slot routes and put pressure on the safeties.

[Beast]

It had better be Davis.

[Warriorspikes51]

It's Harty, not Hardy 

[Bruffalo]

I think it HAS to be Davis given what's currently on the roster.  I wouldn't mind a different Davis, Corey Davis, being the new #2 guy if the Jets cut him though. 

 

I just don't think we should be relying on Gabe.  He's a high end #3 field stretcher. That has its place, but he's shown that he's too volatile to be a #2.