Famous NFL Draft "Reaches" who went on to significant NFL Success

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

I didn't say Mayock was a good talent evaluator. I said I felt sorry for him because what happened with the Raiders is IMO more a reflection of Jon Gruden.

 

I believe this because he was hired by Gruden.

 

 

As @Kirby Jackson already pointed out, Mahomes was a late riser.

 

I don't recall there being much surprise that he was taken.

 

Maybe I'm wrong but I remember thinking that I'd be good if the Bills took him at #10.

 

 

Mahomes was polarizing leading up to the draft.  Many people in media, here, etc hated the idea of him at 10 but were all for it in the second or in a trade down.  Then others thought he should definitely go first half of first round.
 

I did not want him at 10 for example because I hated the idea of taking a QB early who everyone said needs to change all his mechanics to succeed and I had no faith at all we were the team to successfully help him do that at the time.  We had just hired a DC as HC and had historically been awful at developing project QBs.  
 

Only QB I was comfortable with taking at 10 that year was Watson.  I wouldn’t have been pissed if we took Mahomes, but I preferred trading down to get him or just taking Watson.  

[Greybeard]

First name that came to mind, Bob Hayes, the Cowboy.

 

The Dallas Cowboys selected Hayes in the seventh round (88th overall) of the 1964 NFL Draft with a future draft pick, which allowed the team to draft him before his college eligibility was over, taking a chance that the Olympic sprinter with unrefined football skills could excel as a wide receiver.[9] He was also selected by the Denver Broncos in the 14th round (105th overall) of the 1964 AFL Draft, with a future selection. The bet paid off, due to his amazing feats in cleats. Hayes has been credited by many with forcing the NFL to develop a zone defense and the bump and run to attempt to contain him.

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mahomes was polarizing leading up to the draft.  Many people in media, here, etc hated the idea of him at 10 but were all for it in the second or in a trade down.  Then others thought he should definitely go first half of first round.
 

I did not want him at 10 for example because I hated the idea of taking a QB early who everyone said needs to change all his mechanics to succeed and I had no faith at all we were the team to successfully help him do that at the time.  We had just hired a DC as HC and had historically been awful at developing project QBs.  
 

Only QB I was comfortable with taking at 10 that year was Watson.  I wouldn’t have been pissed if we took Mahomes, but I preferred trading down to get him or just taking Watson.  

 

And then we drafted Nathan Peterman... 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

4 hours ago, Steptide said:

Not sure where Daniel Jones will end up by the end of his career, but right now he's on this path 

He’s talented enough to have been taken that high. He has had some ***** coaching. I think he’s got a shot to be a good starter 

[Steve O]

On 4/29/2023 at 9:47 PM, gonzo1105 said:

Sebastian Janikowski

 

 

The entire Bills draft that year started 31 games for the Bills and 47 games for other teams (Tillman and Morris accounted for all but 12 of those starts.) I was severely ridiculed for my mock draft with him our first pick.

[The Jokeman]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Freeney definitely. He was shut down by Bryant McKinnie in a Miami-Syracuse game in his senior season and the view was that against real competition he was shown to be a paper tiger. He had a much better career than McKinnie and should probably go to the HOF.

That said, the Bills should have taken McKinnie over Mike Williams. 

[Livinginthepast]

19 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

It was definitely a bit of a reach at the time…

 

USA Today gave the Chiefs a C- for picking Mahomes. “Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL.”

 

SB Nation: “My grade on what Kansas City did in this draft is due to my opinion that they gave up way too much to trade up for quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the first round.”

 

Sporting News: “Trading up for Mahomes, a big-armed gunslinger who really doesn’t mesh with the true mentality as Alex Smith’s successor, set up a bad tone in this draft.”

 

 

It just goes to show you how the NFL pundits are not much better than fans (if at all ) on assessing talent. I'm also constantly surprised at how much faith fans put into NFL GMs, a lot of whom have been even more clueless than fans on their draft picks over the last 30 years. The greatest QB in NFL history going in the 5th round at 199th is the gold standard exemplar of this.  

[PatsFanNH]

On 4/29/2023 at 6:53 PM, Chaos said:

When all is said and done, the NFL drafts typically largely going according to form.  My guess is 90% of the players who are consenus top 3 round picks, go in the top 3 rounds, just mostly in a much different order than people mock.  

Every draft has a couple of percieved "reaches".   This year in the second round Brenton Strange, DJ Johnson,  and Broderic Martin all looked to be big reaches. 
 

In the the last 20 years of the NFL, are teams ever rewarded for "reaching"? Any prominent examples of players who were considered "reaches" who made the GM who reached look like genius? 

How about Patrick Chung, or  Kyle Dugger. Both were considered huge reaches when BB drafted them. Chung had a very good career and Dugger is a top Safety.

[Bob in STL]

18 hours ago, Greybeard said:

First name that came to mind, Bob Hayes, the Cowboy.

 

The Dallas Cowboys selected Hayes in the seventh round (88th overall) of the 1964 NFL Draft with a future draft pick, which allowed the team to draft him before his college eligibility was over, taking a chance that the Olympic sprinter with unrefined football skills could excel as a wide receiver.[9] He was also selected by the Denver Broncos in the 14th round (105th overall) of the 1964 AFL Draft, with a future selection. The bet paid off, due to his amazing feats in cleats. Hayes has been credited by many with forcing the NFL to develop a zone defense and the bump and run to attempt to contain him.

How is a 7th round and 14th round selection a reach?  

 

To me it was calculated risk that paid off big.  

[Fleezoid]

On 4/29/2023 at 6:56 PM, FrenchConnection said:

Cole Strange was considered to be a reach, but then he started all 17 games for the Pats as a rookie. 

 

 

[Your Brown Eye]

12 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

That said, the Bills should have taken McKinnie over Mike Williams. 

 

That one still boggles the mind, I was walking around all day with a chubby thinking that McKinnie will be our pick and the LT position would be solidified for a decade only to hear OT Williams named called because the Bills brass thought OT Jennings did enough to earn the LT spot if I remember correctly.

[Drew21PA]

2 hours ago, Fleezoid said:

 

 

Nice find 

[DasNootz]

Whitner?  

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

I’m gonna get gigantic **** for this, but Donte Whitner was considered a huge reach. He went on to have a pretty productive 11 year career. Donovan McNabb also. I remember the boos on draft day. Turned out pretty solid 👍

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

On 4/29/2023 at 7:33 PM, IronMaidenBills said:

Sorry sarcasm doesn’t do well here lol 

It's all in your phrasing.  Add a few of these '🙄', the phrase "It's abundantly clear", or finish off you post with /s.

*
You're welcome.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

19 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

And then we drafted Nathan Peterman... 

 

[Kaenon]

On 4/29/2023 at 6:54 PM, Gambit said:

Our very own, Josh Allen.

Josh was almost picked #1 by the Browns and was a consensus Top 5-10 pick.

 

I'm confused.

[Chaos]

On 4/30/2023 at 2:28 PM, Captain Hindsight said:

Yikes behind Kizer? Damn

Mahomes as a consenus first round pick, not 40. Some random outlier mock may have missed the point. But Mahomes was expected to go in the first round. 

3 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

I’m gonna get gigantic **** for this, but Donte Whitner was considered a huge reach. He went on to have a pretty productive 11 year career. Donovan McNabb also. I remember the boos on draft day. Turned out pretty solid 👍

He was not a huge reach. This is discussed earlier in the thread. ESPN's had mocked him at 20th overall.  So a modest reach.  Aaron Maybin defines huge reach. 

9 hours ago, Livinginthepast said:

It just goes to show you how the NFL pundits are not much better than fans (if at all ) on assessing talent. I'm also constantly surprised at how much faith fans put into NFL GMs, a lot of whom have been even more clueless than fans on their draft picks over the last 30 years. The greatest QB in NFL history going in the 5th round at 199th is the gold standard exemplar of this.  

To be fair, Mahomes was a project and did not play his rookie season. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Mahomes as a consenus first round pick, not 40. Some random outlier mock may have missed the point. But Mahomes was expected to go in the first round. 

He was not a huge reach. This is discussed earlier in the thread. ESPN's had mocked him at 20th overall.  So a modest reach.  Aaron Maybin defines huge reach. 

To be fair, Mahomes was a project and did not play his rookie season. 

Idk. I’d consider going from the 20th rated prospect to being the 2nd overall player drafted as a considerable reach especially coming out of a college football powerhouse like Syracuse. 
 

Aaron Maybin is in his own category as far as draft reaches go. 😂

[boyst]

10 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

How about Patrick Chung, or  Kyle Dugger. Both were considered huge reaches when BB drafted them. Chung had a very good career and Dugger is a top Safety.

Dugger isn't there yet and people who paid attention knew he was going to be this good.

[Billl]

On 4/30/2023 at 1:20 PM, Chaos said:

 

No. Mahomes was a consenus first round pick.  Ajdusting for positional value, he was a bit of a reach at 10.  But he is far from the biggest reach to succeed. 

A large faction o TBD sure seemed to think he was a huge reach.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Billl

[Billl]

On 4/30/2023 at 2:07 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I doubt any fanbase was more in on Mahomes than Bills fans either.    He was already getting hyped here on TSW in June of 2016.   @thebandit27 was all over it.   

Yeah.  There was a huge thread called something like The only Mahomes thread you’ll ever need.  That was about 200 Mahomes threads ago.

[Chaos]

5 minutes ago, Billl said:

TBD sure seemed to think he was a huge reach.

I don't think you understand the tweet. 

[Billl]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

I don't think you understand the tweet. 

What tweet?

[gonzo1105]

12 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

How about Patrick Chung, or  Kyle Dugger. Both were considered huge reaches when BB drafted them. Chung had a very good career and Dugger is a top Safety.

Duggar wasn’t a reach some people were talking about him in the 2nd round. There was actually a strong rumor out there that the Bills were going to take him in round 2 but NE beat them to the punch 

[Nikademus]

Aldon Smith from SF comes to mind. I remember just thinking "who?" when he was drafted. Career got derailed but while he was playing he justified being a first rd pick

[PrimeTime101]

Ricky Williams... RB.. NO. Saints.

 

He has a pretty damn good career till his off field actions got crazy. Solid RB and a character to boot. Many Laughed at Ditka for reaching for him but no one was laughing as Ricky Williams ran over 6000 yards his first 5 seasons. 

[PatsFanNH]

17 hours ago, boyst said:

Dugger isn't there yet and people who paid attention knew he was going to be this good.

He was considered a reach for the second round.

[boyst]

4 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

He was considered a reach for the second round.

only by some - these critics and draft talking heads have so much to say that anyone could be a reach.

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

only by some - these critics and draft talking heads have so much to say that anyone could be a reach.

Agreed! They were the only 2 I could think of as being considered a “reach”

[Thurman#1]

Maybe someone has already posted this.

 

Gets me every time. Darius Leonard.  "Bleacher Report: Darius Leonard one of Draft's Worst Picks"

 

 

 

"Just grind like tomorrow isn't coming."

 

Yikes!!

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Tuco]

On 5/1/2023 at 10:10 AM, Bob in STL said:

How is a 7th round and 14th round selection a reach?  

 

To me it was calculated risk that paid off big.  

 

In 1964 they drafted 20 rounds. And the NFL only had 14 teams. So the 88th pick (7th round) would be the equivalent of the 24th pick in the 3rd round today.

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Tuco

[MJS]

On 4/30/2023 at 1:15 PM, Chaos said:

Not really.  Most every players has someone criticizing.  PFF and Football Outsiders both proclaimed it a great pick. Hurts was exected to be a third round pick, he went at 53 overall. He certainly has out performed his draft position.  But that is not what the thread is about. Hurts does not really qualify as a reach. 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-jalen-hurts-wasnt-a-good-pick-by-the-philadelphia-eagles-he-was-a-great-one

 

On 4/30/2023 at 1:20 PM, Chaos said:

 

No. Mahomes was a consenus first round pick.  Ajdusting for positional value, he was a bit of a reach at 10.  But he is far from the biggest reach to succeed. 

You are asking for examples and you are declaring most of them irrelevant because they don't fit your agenda.

 

If someone is projected to go in the 3rd and goes in the 2nd, how is that not a reach? Hurts counts.

 

Mahomes was viewed by many to be a reach. That's a fact. There was tons of concern about him coming from an air raid offense and he was viewed as a raw prospect.

 

I know these don't fit your narrative, but show a little more honesty.

[MJS]

On 5/1/2023 at 2:08 PM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

I’m gonna get gigantic **** for this, but Donte Whitner was considered a huge reach. He went on to have a pretty productive 11 year career. Donovan McNabb also. I remember the boos on draft day. Turned out pretty solid 👍

Whitner was clearly a really good player. Bills fans just wanted someone else. That's all it was. He had a good career.

[BillsPride12]

Way too many people on here naming Donte Whitner....at no point in time did he ever make Marv Levy &Co look like geniuses

 

 

In fact, it was quite the opposite 😄

Edited May 3, 2023 by BillsPride12

[Blokestradamus]

On 4/30/2023 at 12:04 AM, GunnerBill said:

Germain Ifedi

 

Seldom have I ever hated a draft prospect as much as I hated Ifedi. He's in that Kevin Hogan/Nate Peterman rarified air.

 

I still fondly remember the memes with him having pillows for hands.

[Bob in STL]

On 5/3/2023 at 12:05 PM, Tuco said:

 

In 1964 they drafted 20 rounds. And the NFL only had 14 teams. So the 88th pick (7th round) would be the equivalent of the 24th pick in the 3rd round today.

 

Yes.  Making a 7th rounder even less of a risk.  

[Chaos]

On 5/3/2023 at 1:43 PM, MJS said:

 

You are asking for examples and you are declaring most of them irrelevant because they don't fit your agenda.

 

If someone is projected to go in the 3rd and goes in the 2nd, how is that not a reach? Hurts counts.

 

Mahomes was viewed by many to be a reach. That's a fact. There was tons of concern about him coming from an air raid offense and he was viewed as a raw prospect.

 

I know these don't fit your narrative, but show a little more honesty.

Your just wrong. Sorry. 

[Albany,n.y.]

37 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Your just wrong. Sorry. 

When you have to keep telling others they're wrong, it's time to take a look in the mirror and see the one who is really wrong.