2024 comp pick update

[Nephilim17]

To be clear, trades don't factor into this right? 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

1 minute ago, Nephilim17 said:

To be clear, trades don't factor into this right? 

 

Correct.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, Nephilim17 said:

To be clear, trades don't factor into this right? 

 

Yep! Neither do players who were "released" out of an existing contract.  

[MrEpsYtown]

You could still add released players and it would not count towards the formula. I could see an add or two there. 

 

In theory, you could add

 

Bobby Wagner or Zach Cunnigham or Myles Jack

Frank Clark or Leonard Floyd

Michael Brockers or Al Woods

 

I'm guessing OBJ doesn't count as he is a UFA for two years, but I am not 100% on that. 

[Fleezoid]

I'd rather have a free chili dog and beer!

 

 

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

Well nevermind. They just signed David Edwards. 

[Nephilim17]

One more question please:

If a free agent is signed but then cut before the season starts or early in the season, does that factor in?

[GunnerBill]

52 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Over the Cap updates it after the NFL awards their picks.  They more or less, change their website to make it match the exacts.

 

When awarding compensatory picks, the NFL uses a formula that accounts for a player’s average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. The exact specifics of the formula are confidential, but we do know it also takes into consideration a player’s history of playing time (or lack thereof). 

 

What are compensatory draft picks and why do NFL teams get them? - NBC Sports Chicago

 

I checked their projections against the 3rd and 4th rounders for 2023 and they were spot on. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Did you say Jaquan Johnson?  🤣 

 

Huh?

 

13 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Well nevermind. They just signed David Edwards. 

 

I doubt he signed for more than $2M/year.  So they're still good.

[MAJBobby]

 

[78thealltimegreat]

Beane already checking out the draft eligibility for the 2024 defensive ends with that 3rd 

[MrEpsYtown]

I know we make fun, but it is way easier to give up a pick or two for DHop if you know you have an extra coming. 

[ColoradoBills]

28 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

One more question please:

If a free agent is signed but then cut before the season starts or early in the season, does that factor in?

 

I believe so, but it's hard to understand.  It seems to me that if a player is cut it would depend on if his guaranteed money made him eligible.

 

 

[KHAN]

The only thing dumber than the multitude of "Edmunds sucks" threads are the "comp pick warrior" threads.

[BigAl2526]

On 3/23/2023 at 11:16 AM, Back2Buff said:

Pretty sure no ones knows the rules of the comp formula, so not sure why so much time is spent over it.

 

Every year there has been situations that go against the "formula"

It's true that the comp pick rules are not publicized by the league, but by observing the patterns over the years, there are observers who are pretty good at projecting who is likely to get comp picks.

[JaCrispy]

On 3/23/2023 at 1:09 PM, KHAN said:

The only thing dumber than the multitude of "Edmunds sucks" threads are the "comp pick warrior" threads.

[Don Otreply]

On 3/23/2023 at 11:36 AM, Rigotz said:

For those who "don't understand the comp formula" it's really easy:

 

1) If you lose a valuable Free Agent (Tremaine Edmunds) that gets paid top of market value, you get a comp pick for them.

2) You can only receive this comp pick if you LOSE more "qualified free agents" than you gain.

3) A "qualified free agent" is a player that is not a free agent because he was cut AND his salary needs to be above a certain level (this year about $2.5M).

(Thus, free agents can be signed and "not qualify" because they were either cut or their salary is low)

 

If you spend all day on this message board and still can't put these 3 things together or you can't understand why people want free 3rd round picks... you probably shouldn't post your opinion on it.

I always thought that if a free weighs the same as a duck, and floats, then a comp pick is awarded to the patriots…, or was that the fee agent was burned, I always forget, 

Edited March 24, 2023 by Don Otreply

[Bronxbomber21]

On 3/23/2023 at 11:14 AM, GolfandBills said:

Probably be traded to move up 1 spot for a DB

I wouldn't mind the next Dawson Knox

[Wizard]

Might as well learn and use the compensatory pick system. We are going to need as many cheap backups and contributing rookies as possible over the next couple of years.

 

Hopefully the ability to land more picks, evaluate and draft well, and then “coaching up” will be stronger too.

[John from Riverside]

On 3/23/2023 at 9:19 AM, Fleezoid said:

I'd rather have a free chili dog and beer!

 

 

 

 

What kind of beer?

[Doc]

It's less about focusing on getting comp picks than it is being able to sign guys who can contribute so that they don't affect getting a comp pick.  If you told me the Bills could get a possible pair of starting OGs, a 3rd WR and a RB who scored 15 TDs for under $1.8M, I'd have said no way.

[Captain Hindsight]

On 3/23/2023 at 11:33 AM, damj said:

Meh.... Somehow we'll end up with none and NE will have 17... As usual

I know this is like a common joke here, but nobody is going to help NE anymore. Theta re just another average franchise now 

[wilcoam]

Actually the NFL ranks Tremaine as the 61st best player in the league, as per his new contract, thus potentially the top tier 3rd round comp, noting any FA signed after the April/May draft doesn't count, nor any FA signings under 2.5M, so G Edwards also didn't count, not Harris or Sherfield

 

However a DL Calais C FA signing might negate the 3rd round comp

 

jc 

[LEBills]

11 minutes ago, wilcoam said:

Actually the NFL ranks Tremaine as the 61st best player in the league, as per his new contract, thus potentially the top tier 3rd round comp, noting any FA signed after the April/May draft doesn't count, nor any FA signings under 2.5M, so G Edwards also didn't count, not Harris or Sherfield

 

However a DL Calais C FA signing might negate the 3rd round comp

 

jc 

I believe Campbell was released and so that wouldn’t affect comp picks

[Fleezoid]

On 3/24/2023 at 10:21 PM, John from Riverside said:

What kind of beer?

 

Jai Alai. It's a local craft beer in Florida.

[Tuco]

So many experts. So little time.

 

In summary - 

 

As noted above, not all players count. Only unrestricted free agents (that includes RFA and ERFA candidates who are not tendered) whose contracts expired on the last day of the league year, and whose new contracts fall inside the top 35% of all player contracts count (currently around $2.5 - $3.0 mil). Players who were released before the start of "free agency" do not count. Also, tagged players whose tag was rescinded count. The deadline for signed players to count in the formula is 4:00 PM eastern on the Monday following the draft (May 1st this year).

 

If a player initially counts and is then cut, he generally doesn't count any more. But he could still count if the amount of money earned before being cut still puts him inside the top 35% of all contracts. But the value would of course then be lowered depending on where his earnings eventually fit in. That's why the official list isn't released until after the season.

 

The contract figure used considers the entire contract salary, bonuses and incentives, including likely to be earned and not likely to be earned, divided by the number of years in the signed contract. It is also adjusted after the season to adjust for these factors, and is also a reason why the official list isn't released until after the season.

 

The formula used to be a secret - or at least was never made public. Since the signing of the 2020 Collective Bargaining Agreement (when some of the rules were tweaked) however, the exact formula and all its rules have been available to anyone who wants to take the time to read and understand them. It's listed in the CBA as Appendix V, and starts on page 399.

 

But for most of us, the OTC site does a pretty good job with their predictions. Some picks, of course, are adjusted during and at the end of the season for reasons listed above. But those are usually the bottom of the 7th round choices. For example, there are generally 32 picks given each year under the formula. Adjusting of contracts after the season can easily result in a player who would normally fall at say, 39 (no pick) to jump up to 31 (a 7th), or something similar, and vice-versa. 

 

Signed, Specifically yours,

 

Cliff Claven

 

 

[Big Turk]

On 3/24/2023 at 10:32 PM, Captain Hindsight said:

I know this is like a common joke here, but nobody is going to help NE anymore. Theta re just another average franchise now 

 

It's not about "helping" anyone. There are very clearly defined rules to this, no real surprises why a team does or doesn't get comp picks.

 

It's not like they just randomly assign these to teams.

 

I'm simply of the opinion there should not be any comp picks. There was a time they helped balance things now they are simply unnecessary and teams game the system.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Big Turk

[Ethan in Cleveland]

10 minutes ago, Tuco said:

So many experts. So little time.

 

In summary - 

 

As noted above, not all players count. Only unrestricted free agents (that includes RFA and ERFA candidates who are not tendered) whose contracts expired on the last day of the league year, and whose new contracts fall inside the top 35% of all player contracts count (currently around $2.5 - $3.0 mil). Players who were released before the start of "free agency" do not count. Also, tagged players whose tag was rescinded count. The deadline for signed players to count in the formula is 4:00 PM eastern on the Monday following the draft (May 1st this year).

 

If a player initially counts and is then cut, he generally doesn't count any more. But he could still count if the amount of money earned before being cut still puts him inside the top 35% of all contracts. But the value would of course then be lowered depending on where his earnings eventually fit in. That's why the official list isn't released until after the season.

 

The contract figure used considers the entire contract salary, bonuses and incentives, including likely to be earned and not likely to be earned, divided by the number of years in the signed contract. It is also adjusted after the season to adjust for these factors, and is also a reason why the official list isn't released until after the season.

 

The formula used to be a secret - or at least was never made public. Since the signing of the 2020 Collective Bargaining Agreement (when some of the rules were tweaked) however, the exact formula and all its rules have been available to anyone who wants to take the time to read and understand them. It's listed in the CBA as Appendix V, and starts on page 399.

 

But for most of us, the OTC site does a pretty good job with their predictions. Some picks, of course, are adjusted during and at the end of the season for reasons listed above. But those are usually the bottom of the 7th round choices. For example, there are generally 32 picks given each year under the formula. Adjusting of contracts after the season can easily result in a player who would normally fall at say, 39 (no pick) to jump up to 31 (a 7th), or something similar, and vice-versa. 

 

Signed, Specifically yours,

 

Cliff Claven

 

 

Nice write up. 

I'm too busy to look it up so I will just ask you. 

I've never heard of the top 35% rule. I know that only UFA are eligible to be counted. I thought the size of the contract only mattered in determining the round that the comp pick is awarded. I thought all you needed to be is net negative in the number of free agents signed/lost. Is the 35% rule by position? Because it doesn't make a lot of sense as obviously QB, LT, WR, and DE make so much more than other positions. Also what period of time is used for the 35%. The entire contract? That,makes no sense as there are so many bonuses included in contracts in the later years. 

The year they lost out on a Gilmore comp pick the scrubs that they signed could not have had contracts in the top 35%. They were all street level free agents there were just too many of them. 

Any how, at this point I must assume Beane knows the rules and if he blows it again he should really explain what the hell. Like this safety they just signed. Could that not have waited until after the draft when you say the counting stops??

[JerseyBills]

On 3/23/2023 at 11:12 AM, HappyDays said:

 

Sportac had Harris receiving 7 mil AAY

Had him predicted around 3/21 

 

That's incredible value

Same with Harty. He was predicted to make 3 mil more per year

[Tuco]

26 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Nice write up. 

I'm too busy to look it up so I will just ask you. 

I've never heard of the top 35% rule. I know that only UFA are eligible to be counted. I thought the size of the contract only mattered in determining the round that the comp pick is awarded. I thought all you needed to be is net negative in the number of free agents signed/lost. Is the 35% rule by position? Because it doesn't make a lot of sense as obviously QB, LT, WR, and DE make so much more than other positions. Also what period of time is used for the 35%. The entire contract? That,makes no sense as there are so many bonuses included in contracts in the later years. 

The year they lost out on a Gilmore comp pick the scrubs that they signed could not have had contracts in the top 35%. They were all street level free agents there were just too many of them. 

Any how, at this point I must assume Beane knows the rules and if he blows it again he should really explain what the hell. Like this safety they just signed. Could that not have waited until after the draft when you say the counting stops??

The reason we lost out on Gilmore by signing scrubs was because it used to be any player in the top 50% counted. And it's possible there was a time when all FAs signed counted (which is why a lot of people still think it is), I can't say for sure there. But it's not that way any more. With teams signing 90 players, the majority of whom are very low contracts, it's not hard to fall into the top 50%. This year the top 35% is somewhere in the $2.5-$3.0 mil range. At 50%, like I'm pretty sure it used to be when we lost out on a pick for Gilmore, the figure would of course be much lower, and a lot more so-called scrubs would be figured into the formula. It was changed to 35% with the 2020 CBA.

 

And the top 35% is not just the first year, it's the average per year of the total contract, figured as I explained above. You take the total of all salary and bonuses and divide by the number of years in the contract. So even if a guy has only a $2 mil salary in his first year, but a $20 mil signing bonus plus a huge salary in year 4 plus a huge roster bonus in year 2, it all adds up and is divided by the number of years in the contract. So the guy might only have a $2 million base salary for the first year, but if his contract is for a total of $40 million over 4 years, then he goes into the formula at $10 mil per year, while every other player in the league's contract (for the purposes of comp picks) is also figured the same. If the player's contract falls inside the top 35% he counts, and if it's outside he doesn't. 

Edited March 27, 2023 by Tuco

[HappyDays]

 

[17islongenough]

 

 

 

[No_Matter_What]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

1 minute ago, 17islongenough said:

 

 

 

So it really means that Rapp was also signed under $2M. Cool

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

[ColoradoBills]

After the money is computed, it is transferred to a point system.

Then the following is used to come up with the total points for each player.

 

https://overthecap.com/collective-bargaining-agreement/appendix/V

All players shall be assigned additional points based on honors or participation, as follows:

Selected 1st Team ALL NFL by PFWA or 1st Team ALL PRO by AP: 20 points.

Selected All Conference by PFWA (except if selected ALL NFL or ALL PRO above): 5 points.

One point for each percent of the total offensive/defensive plays in which the player participated (excluding special teams) provided that the player participated in a minimum of 25% of the offensive/ defensive plays (excluding special teams). For example: 67% participation equals 67 points, 0% to 24.99% participation equals no points. Exception: in the case of punters and place-kickers, 1 point will be awarded for each punt attempted and 1 point for each punt inside the 20-yard line during the regular season for the punters, and 2 points for each field goal attempted and 1 point for each field goal made during the regular season for place-kickers.

The sum of the numerical values in (a) and (b) above shall represent each player’s Final Numerical Value.

Each CFA’s Final Numerical Value shall be measured in percentile terms against all players’ Final Numerical Values to determine the position of a Club’s Compensatory Draft Selection, if any.

[78thealltimegreat]

See some people where completely wrong about how the comp pick formula works Beane himself said he’s been doing these type of signings to keep that 3rd rounder. 
So if they add to the roster it’s going to be someone who is cut or traded I wonder who might be traded 🤔

[Bigvinny]

8 hours ago, Fleezoid said:

 

Jai Alai. It's a local craft beer in Florida.

Canned in North Carolina at Oskar Blues. I saw pallets of it there. I was like WTF is that?

[Doc]

8 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

See some people where completely wrong about how the comp pick formula works Beane himself said he’s been doing these type of signings to keep that 3rd rounder. 
So if they add to the roster it’s going to be someone who is cut or traded I wonder who might be traded 🤔

 

Um...Hopkins?

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

Um...Hopkins?

I'm guessing that was a rhetorical question with an implied answer.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm guessing that was a rhetorical question with an implied answer.

 

Could be.  What does that emoji mean?