We're onto Miami(Miami's headed to Buffalo)...opening line BUF -10! Game at 1:05 PM SUN 1/15

[CorkScrewHill]

24 minutes ago, 947 said:

Not even close. 49ers were favored by 19 over the Chargers in the Superbowl 29. Colts were -18 vs Jets in SB 3.

It has been reported that it would be the highest for a wild card round game.

[17islongenough]

34 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Run threat for sure

I haven't really watched him play.  Why is he a running threat.  I looked up his stats and he's run 14 times for 21 yards

[Logic]

26 minutes ago, 947 said:

Not even close. 49ers were favored by 19 over the Chargers in the Superbowl 29. Colts were -18 vs Jets in SB 3.

You're right. 

On second look, it's for the Wild Card round only.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/11/for-upcoming-postseason-game-at-bills-dolphins-are-biggest-wild-card-underdog-ever/

"Via ESPN Stats & Information, a 13-point spread would be a record high for wild-card weekend. The previous record as 12."

[PaattMaann]

2 minutes ago, 17islongenough said:

I haven't really watched him play.  Why is he a running threat.  I looked up his stats and he's run 14 times for 21 yards

 

He rushed over 100 times in back to back college seasons (not very effectively, only topped 400 yards once). Its more he is mobile and can extend plays. He is seriously not a dude to worry about though in any respect. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The Fins will struggle to get to 17 points this game.

You spelled 7 wrong

[YattaOkasan]

10 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Or find a way to get Tyreek super involved.   He can be a game wrecker pure and simple.  He's too fast for any of our dbs.

I am sorta expecting a Tyreek wildcat package.  With how limited they are they need something new.  And if you took Skylar off the field and were able to get Tyreek the green dot some interesting things could happen.  Get him lined up quick, look at the defense and tell him the play before 15 seconds.

4 hours ago, nucci said:

these people need to get with the times...it's not the '70s

Agree.  That tweet is a classic example of correlation doesnt equal causation.  Teams with the lead run the ball to shorten the game.  Teams behind throw to extend.  That does not mean they got their lead cause of their running effectiveness.

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

That is conventional wisdom.

Run the ball.  Control the clock.  Keep Josh Allen off the field.  Hope your defense creates turnovers and limits points.

 

I'm going the complete opposite direction. 

The Bills have only had two games under 20 points this season (17 and 19 points).  That is the absolute floor for this offense.  So even if their defense plays lights out, I'm not sure a Skyler Thompson-led team can put together enough long methodical drives to put up 20 points.

 

My gameplan would be tons of trick plays, and taking at least one deep shot every drive.  With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, you might get lucky and get a couple big plays.  I'm taking the chance they can get 2-3 bombs for touchdowns, over the same number of 8-9 play drives.

 

I really dont want any trick plays this game for several reasons.  As you say they need to hope the defense creates turnovers.  Why give them plays that are more risky for turnovers.  if we run boring conservative offense (ball out quick and run plays), we might not boat race them but we do take away their best chance for them to beat us.  Deep shots have Josh standing in the pocket against hte strength of their team.  Also why give away the trick plays this week.  Save them for a better team.  

 

**I misread mjt post.  These are my thoughts for what Bills O might do so will leave up.  I agree with mjt that Fins need to run trick plays to stay in it.

Edited January 12, 2023 by YattaOkasan
I can't read

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

That is conventional wisdom.

Run the ball.  Control the clock.  Keep Josh Allen off the field.  Hope your defense creates turnovers and limits points.

 

I'm going the complete opposite direction. 

The Bills have only had two games under 20 points this season (17 and 19 points).  That is the absolute floor for this offense.  So even if their defense plays lights out, I'm not sure a Skyler Thompson-led team can put together enough long methodical drives to put up 20 points.

 

My gameplan would be tons of trick plays, and taking at least one deep shot every drive.  With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, you might get lucky and get a couple big plays.  I'm taking the chance they can get 2-3 bombs for touchdowns, over the same number of 8-9 play drives.

 

 

Except that has been shown not to actually work very well because Allen can score regularly within 2-3 minutes.

[UKBillFan]

3 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I am sorta expecting a Tyreek wildcat package.  With how limited they are they need something new.  And if you took Skylar off the field and were able to get Tyreek the green dot some interesting things could happen.  Get him lined up quick, look at the defense and tell him the play before 15 seconds.

Agree.  That tweet is a classic example of correlation doesnt equal causation.  Teams with the lead run the ball to shorten the game.  Teams behind throw to extend.  That does not mean they got their lead cause of their running effectiveness.

I really dont want any trick plays this game for several reasons.  As you say they need to hope the defense creates turnovers.  Why give them plays that are more risky for turnovers.  if we run boring conservative offense (ball out quick and run plays), we might not boat race them but we do take away their best chance for them to beat us.  Deep shots have Josh standing in the pocket against hte strength of their team.  Also why give away the trick plays this week.  Save them for a better team.  

 

I think mjt328 is suggesting that's how the Dolphins should approach the game; not the Bills.

[jletha]

4 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I am sorta expecting a Tyreek wildcat package.  With how limited they are they need something new.  And if you took Skylar off the field and were able to get Tyreek the green dot some interesting things could happen.  Get him lined up quick, look at the defense and tell him the play before 15 seconds.

Agree.  That tweet is a classic example of correlation doesnt equal causation.  Teams with the lead run the ball to shorten the game.  Teams behind throw to extend.  That does not mean they got their lead cause of their running effectiveness.

I really dont want any trick plays this game for several reasons.  As you say they need to hope the defense creates turnovers.  Why give them plays that are more risky for turnovers.  if we run boring conservative offense (ball out quick and run plays), we might not boat race them but we do take away their best chance for them to beat us.  Deep shots have Josh standing in the pocket against hte strength of their team.  Also why give away the trick plays this week.  Save them for a better team.  

I believe he is talking about what should be *Miami's* gameplan. Not Buffalo

[Beck Water]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You don’t think he should be terrified of Hill and Waddle?  Those are the guys he needs to be terrified of.  Mostert is likely out and Wilson, while fast, isn’t Mostert fast (or strong) and has fumbling issues. 
 

i would definitely keep the cheetahs in front of us while trying to figure out their run game.  If we can’t stop the run, make adjustments.  It’s not just mcdermotts way…..it’s the smart way.

 

This.  I have no idea how much of an arm Skyler Thompson has, but it has to remembered that in KC, 1/3 of Hill's yards came after the catch.  That's been less of his game this season, more like 1/4, but it's still part of what makes him a dangerous WR: the ability to turn a 5 yd dump off into 25 any time now.

[Big Turk]

 

[Turbo44]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Probably means that some team tried to poach him from our PS so we had to elevate him to the 53

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Don’t we also have to elevate John Brown since we already have 3 times?

[BlazinBill]

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Give the ability to have Diggs/Davis/Beasley/Brown/Shakir and McKenzie as a way deeper receiver then we have had this year and only need 1 PS call up- love it

[SWATeam]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t we also have to elevate John Brown since we already have 3 times?

Unlimited in the postseason

[AlfaBill]

26 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I am sorta expecting a Tyreek wildcat package.  With how limited they are they need something new.  And if you took Skylar off the field and were able to get Tyreek the green dot some interesting things could happen.  Get him lined up quick, look at the defense and tell him the play before 15 seconds.

Agree.  That tweet is a classic example of correlation doesnt equal causation.  Teams with the lead run the ball to shorten the game.  Teams behind throw to extend.  That does not mean they got their lead cause of their running effectiveness.

I really dont want any trick plays this game for several reasons.  As you say they need to hope the defense creates turnovers.  Why give them plays that are more risky for turnovers.  if we run boring conservative offense (ball out quick and run plays), we might not boat race them but we do take away their best chance for them to beat us.  Deep shots have Josh standing in the pocket against hte strength of their team.  Also why give away the trick plays this week.  Save them for a better team.  

Perhaps Hill will be used in the return game. 

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

Oh, now that's interesting

 

Keep in mind that while we have unlimited practice squad call ups for each player in the playoffs, we can still only elevate 2 per game without making a roster move.

 

1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t we also have to elevate John Brown since we already have 3 times?

 

No, the call-ups re-set.

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Oh, now that's interesting

 

Keep in mind that while we have unlimited practice squad call ups for each player in the playoffs, we can still only elevate 2 per game without making a roster move.

 

John Brown and Brandin Bryant is my guess

[TheyCallMeAndy]

4 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

Probably means that some team tried to poach him from our PS so we had to elevate him to the 53

Giants? 

[YattaOkasan]

24 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

I think mjt328 is suggesting that's how the Dolphins should approach the game; not the Bills.

 

23 minutes ago, jletha said:

I believe he is talking about what should be *Miami's* gameplan. Not Buffalo

Appreciate that context that I missed.  I agree Miami should throw the kitchen sink.  I think they still have to run but need some explosive plays to keep up.  Sorta why I think they run a Hill wildcat package.

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

Probably means that some team tried to poach him from our PS so we had to elevate him to the 53

 

No, I don't think that's what it means.  Practice squad players are free agents, they can say "No Thanks, I'm Good Here".

 

[stevewin]

35 minutes ago, 17islongenough said:

I haven't really watched him play.  Why is he a running threat.  I looked up his stats and he's run 14 times for 21 yards

He'a a threat to run for 1.5 yds/carry

[mikemac2001]

10 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

Probably means that some team tried to poach him from our PS so we had to elevate him to the 53

The player does not have to sign with that team they still have the ability to decline 

 

bills probably plan on using him the rest of the year 

[Turbo44]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Oh, now that's interesting

 

Keep in mind that while we have unlimited practice squad call ups for each player in the playoffs, we can still only elevate 2 per game without making a roster move.

 

 

No, the call-ups re-set.

Good point - that could be the reason for the elevation too - they want to move 3 up and only could move up 2, so cut Murphy and replaced him with Beasley

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

John Brown and Brandin Bryant is my guess

 

Brandin Bryant for sure

 

But there's a numbers game for the game-day actives. 

 

A typical game-day roster would feature

2 QB

8 OL

5 RB (including Taiwan Jones)

2 TE

5 WR

4 Edge

4 DT

6 LB

9 DB (3 safeties, 3 CB, 1 "switch", 1 nickel CB, 1 dime CB)

3 specialists

 

So if, for example, we want to have 6 WR active, we need to take a spot from another position group

 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

15 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

Probably means that some team tried to poach him from our PS so we had to elevate him to the 53

I don't think there is any fear of Beasley signing with another team off the practice squad.  He would simply refuse the offer.

[mikemac2001]

McKenzie might be out also with the bease news 

[Turbo44]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

No, I don't think that's what it means.  Practice squad players are free agents, they can say "No Thanks, I'm Good Here".

 

Yes they can, but they make much more $ on the active roster than PS, so, maybe Beasley forced their hand?  Maybe not, we'll never know

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:

The player does not have to sign with that team they still have the ability to decline 

bills probably plan on using him the rest of the year 

 

3 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

Good point - that could be the reason for the elevation too - they want to move 3 up and only could move up 2, so cut Murphy and replaced him with Beasley

 

What's interesting is them doing this on Thursday.  I was thinking that Beane might have given Beasley his word that if he was a "good soldier" and lived on the PS, he would bring him onto the 53 for the playoffs if injuries allowed.  But doing it early can be seen as a "tell"

 

They don't have to make a roster move until Saturday.  So Turbo44 could be right, but it seems unlikely that 1) another team would try to sign a player who is most useful if the QB has a mind-meld going on with him, when they have like 2-3 days 2) Beasley would accept if another team tried, since he seemed sincere about wanting to be here, in particular

 

This seems like a bit of a "chess move" to me - like McDermott and Dorsey saying "you know all those plays we used to run with Beasley in the lineup last year?  well, hey y'all, Better get busy and look them up and add them to your defensive prep work....."  In other words, it's a 'Tell' we want the Dolphins to see.

[Big Turk]

 

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:

McKenzie might be out also with the bease news 

 

That's a possibility, but he was looking pretty lively in the video clilps that came out from practice - and again, Beane would not need to make this move until Saturday, when there are two more days of practice and three more days of treatment to look at

 

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

@NewEra , brother, that $95 return has got to be going up now on that $20.

 

Just no good news coming the Dolphins way in the last 24 hours.

 

 

[Mango]

35 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

Probably means that some team tried to poach him from our PS so we had to elevate him to the 53

 

Why would they? He has 2 catches for us for a total of 18 yards and a 3rd down drop against a CIN game we didn't finish. 

He has been unemployed all year and provided zero production to either team he has been on. 

Beasley on the 53 and playing on game days is a favor to JA17 per his request. Not because he is a meaningful piece of this offense. 

[Pokebball]

Miami has got to try to manufacture points elsewhere - defense and special teams. Bill's offense needs to protect the ball and our special teams needs to play sound. I wouldn't be surprised to see Waddle and/or Hill returning kicks/punts. Without points from defense/ST, I don't see how Miami can win this game.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

There are several candidates for cut if Hyde or Crowder come back, including Mayden. 

 

I agree with others, call-up with be John Brown and Brandin Bryant. That Phillips video from this past weekend was eye-opening. 

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Mango]

11 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

There are several candidates for cut if Hyde or Crowder come back, including Mayden. 

 

I agree with others, call-up with be John Brown and Brandin Bryant. That Phillips video from this past weekend was eye-opening. 

 

 

I likely would have had JB on the 53 and Beasley on the PS. At least he can stretch the defense. I also think Shakir is an option we refuse to use underneath. 

[CSBill]

16 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Anyone care to take a guess at how the defensive philosophy might be different with no Tua? 
 

Double down of the McFraiser style we’ve come to love and loathe?

 

More zone, less pressures? More pressures, tighter press? 
 

More mixed coverages?

Yes. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[stevewin]

Settle leaving field with trainers is unSettling

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Wouldn’t that be ‘the best way to stop the bills is stopping throws to diggs’ then? Lol which is the opposite of what RGIII said.  
 

the last three Super Bowl winners were in the bottom 10 in rushing ypg during the regular season.  RGIII is mistaking ‘teams with leads run the ball’ with ‘you have to run the ball to win’
 

 

Probably a lot more nuanced than run or pass to win. Although game plans featuring runs to manage the clock and keep an offense off the field are still viable.

 

I think the Rams were close to leading the league in play-action % and runs when they had Goff, but Goff is a QB who likes to operate under center and does not excel at off schedule throws or extending plays.

 

Running the ball and play-action works for him.

 

When the Rams acquired Stafford their use of runs and play action dropped considerably as Stafford has more comfort operating with empty sets and from the shotgun.

 

Detroit has done the opposite with Goff incorporating more runs and passes out of the same sets and had some success this year.

 

So they have an increase in play-action passes for Goff, keep throws on schedule, and have added a bit more depth to those passes to help better move the chains.

 

Play action (IMO) is not nearly as effective out of the shotgun which we use a lot, but we also have a very mobile QB which opens up RPO's which neither Stafford or Goff would pull off very effectively as defenses don't really fear them as runners.