The Real Importance (?) of the Number One Seed/Home Field Advantage

[Gugny]

The history of the No. 1 seed, by the numbers

 

• Since 1990 playoffs, when postseason expanded to 12 teams/6 per conference
• Lost Divisional round: 16 times (25.8%)
• Lost Championship Game: 14 times (22.6%)
• Lost Super Bowl: 18 times (29.0%)
• Won Super Bowl:  14 times (22.6%)
• 32 of the last 62 Super Bowl participants were No. 1 seeds
• 14 of the last 31 Super Bowl champions were No. 1 seeds (45.1%)

 

 

[NickelCity]

Go Raiders.

[ProcessTruster]

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

[artmalibu]

Ive always thought that the championship game should be at a neutral field.  I dont think it is fair for 1 team to have the advantages of a bye week, play one less game, and have home field.  Teams in a conference dont play the same schedule, so a team could play in the weakest division, play the 2nd weakest division in their conference and the weakest team in the other conference.

[Gregthekeg]

1 hour ago, artmalibu said:

Ive always thought that the championship game should be at a neutral field.  I dont think it is fair for 1 team to have the advantages of a bye week, play one less game, and have home field.  Teams in a conference dont play the same schedule, so a team could play in the weakest division, play the 2nd weakest division in their conference and the weakest team in the other conference.

Like the Chiefs that past couple years and the Pats for 15 years? 

[Tortured Soul]

2 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

I thought the point of adding an eighth playoff team was that no one would have a bye.

[SWATeam]

It's become even more important since only the #1 seed now gets a bye.

[Long Suffering Fan]

There are so many major advantages that go with the one seed.

 

1.  It means a first round bye and one less playoff game that you have to win.

2. The bye means that in the next round you go in rested and prepared while your opponent doesn't. 

3.  It means that you get to play the weakest team (usually) in the next round.  That is especially huge this year.  There are three teams that stand out above the rest in the AFC.  If Buffalo gets the one seed, that means they would only play one of KC/Cinn.  Finish 2nd or 3rd and you will have to beat both.

4.  And you also get home field advantage in the playoffs.

 

Everyone is always talking about home field.  That is not even close to the most important thing on the above list.

[uticaclub]

I look at the revenue lost on missing a deserved title game

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

18 minutes ago, Long Suffering Fan said:

There are so many major advantages that go with the one seed.

 

 

3.  It means that you get to play the weakest team (usually) in the next round.  That is especially huge this year.  There are three teams that stand out above the rest in the AFC.  If Buffalo gets the one seed, that means they would only play one of KC/Cinn.  Finish 2nd or 3rd and you will have to beat both.

 

 

I think the Chargers are molding into one of those teams where we will say there are four top teams in the conference now. Most likely outcome is the Chargers got to KC in the divisional round. KC has had the better of them but i want to say the Chargers have held 4th quarter leads in just about every game the two have played these last couple of years. Chargers can absolutely beat the Chiefs. 

 

But definitely the biggest advantage is you only have to beat one great team most years as opposed to two if you are the 2 or 3 seed. But this year, I would say the Chiefs are going to have to also battle it out with 2 great teams. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

The more I think about this I like the 8th team idea and no Byes this year. I can live with the current idea being voted on, but the 8th team seems to be less interruptive and just as fair if not more.

[billsfanmiamioh]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

It's become even more important since only the #1 seed now gets a bye.

I really hate the new 7 team format. The 6 team with top 2 getting a bye was perfect. 

[Einstein]

Could the numbers be misleading because there were 2 one seeds per conference for a long time?

 

Or does the data show the same regardless?

[Gugny]

37 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Could the numbers be misleading because there were 2 one seeds per conference for a long time?

 

Or does the data show the same regardless?

 

Of that, I am not sure.

 

I've always just been a firm believer in "the better team usually wins."

 

[KDIGGZ]

KC didn't earn a bye. If you give them a bye then you give the #2 team home field. It's the only fair way to do it and balance things out besides having 8 teams and no bye.

[Utah John]

4 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

Either that or make the 1 seed play the 8 seed, so neither gets a bye.

 

It totally sucks that KC could lose to both Buffalo and Cinci in the regular season and still get a bye.

[msw2112]

This is a difficult situation where nobody is the winner.  A co-worker of mine is a Chiefs fan and he is upset because the Chiefs might end up being denied the right to host the AFCCG, which he and I have previously agreed was a huge advantage for getting to the Super Bowl.

 

I'm a huge Bills fan and want them to have the #1 seed, bye, home field, etc., but trying to be objective, this outcome may benefit the Bills.  Prior to the Hamlin injury, the Bengals were leading the game and were driving towards a 2nd score.  While I realize the Bills have come back many times this season, the game was tilting in the Bengals favor, and the Bengals passing game was moving down the field at will.  Without Micah Hyde, Benford being out, Poyer being banged up, and Tre White less than 100%, the Bills' secondary was struggling.  I don't think it would be a stretch to day that the Bengals were in a good position to win that game.  If they did, and the Chiefs beat the Raiders this upcoming weekend, the Bills would have fallen to the 3rd seed and would have had to go to Cincy or KC for the AFCCG, if those teams advanced that far. Now, if the Bills have to play one of these two teams in the AFCCG, it's on a neutral field, which is a more advantageous outcome.

 

While I often disagree with Roger Goodell, he made the comment that nobody is going to be happy about the solution, but an attempt is being made to be fair to all of the teams involved, and I agree with that.

 

I might feel differently if it was the Bills who had taken the ball, stormed down the field to a quick TD, held the opponent to 3 points, then was marching down the field again, with the home crowd behind it, but that's not what happened.  A strong argument can be made that if the Raiders upset the Chiefs on Sunday, that it's the Bengals who got screwed out of the opportunity.  Baltimore may also get screwed.  They could beat the Bengals for a 2nd time this season and have to go to Cincy in the playoffs based on a coin flip.  So again, as stated in the first line above, nobody is a winner.

[Luka]

Maybe the NFL should just adopt the NCAA polling system. Let the computers and the coaches seed the entire playoffs. That'll really get everyone riled up.

[ArtVandalay]

Its almost like playing less games and all games at home helps you 😄

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ya Digg?]

17 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

 

14 hours ago, Tortured Soul said:

I thought the point of adding an eighth playoff team was that no one would have a bye.

It is, if there are 8 teams no one gets a bye-otherwise if you give the 1 and 2 seeds a bye they will end up with a bye for 2 weeks 

[chongli]

15 hours ago, Einstein said:

Could the numbers be misleading because there were 2 one seeds per conference for a long time?

 

Or does the data show the same regardless?

 

There were never two number ne seeds in a conference. Two teams did use to get a bye (and also three before that), but somone was always seeded number two. The data Gugny cited referred to only number one seeds.

 

19 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yep.  1st round bye is massive.  

 

regarding the "neutral site" AFC title game concession, this is garbage, as getting screwed out of the opportunity to have a 1st round bye is a huge loss. I like the idea of adding an 8th playoff team and letting both the #1 and #2 seeds have byes.   

 

But if 1 and 2 got byes, there would be six teams left to play one another in the Wild Card round, so three winners total. That would be a problem, since the three winners cannot play the two teams that got a bye. It has to be 2, 4, 8, etc. total.

Edited January 7, 2023 by chongli

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

26 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

 

 

But if 1 and 2 got byes, there would be six teams left to play one another in the Wild Card round, so three winners total. That would be a problem, since three winner cannot play the two teams that get a bye. It has to be 2, 4, 8, etc. total.

 

 This is what I was going to say. If 1 and 2 get a bye, 6 teams would play 3 games which gives you 3 winners and leaves you with 5 teams left. You can start the playoffs with an odd number because factored in is the 1 seed gets a bye, but no round afterwards can end with an odd number of teams. Unless the 1 seed were to get 2 byes, but that's going overboard with the byes.

 

 

 

 

 

[Einstein]

34 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

There were never two one seeds in a conference. Two teams used to get a bye (and also three before that), but somone was always number two. The data Gugny cited referred to only number one seeds.

 

Good point.

[chongli]

Of all the advantages cited in the excellent post on page 1 above by @Long Suffering Fan, I agree that home-field advantage has become less important nowadays.

 

Look at this article from The Washington Post (registration required with limited articles for free):

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

Quote

 

"NFL home-field advantage was endangered before the pandemic. Now it’s almost extinct."

 

[...]

 

"Last year [in 2020] with stadiums permitting either partial crowds or no fans at all, home-field advantage vanished. Road teams won more often for the first time on record, posting a .502 winning percentage. When NFL stadiums welcomed back fans this season [in 2021], home-field advantage was expected to rejoin them. It has not. Teams playing in their home stadium went 137-131-1, just barely back above .500 and, aside from 2020, the worst record since at least 2002."

 

[...]

 

"For much of the NFL’s existence, frenzied home crowds intimidated visitors and made it difficult for road quarterbacks to communicate and make adjustments at the line of scrimmage, travel presented disorienting challenges for players, and conditions inside stadiums discomforted visiting teams. From 2002 to 2018, home teams won at least 56 percent of the time during all but two seasons and in three seasons won at least 60 percent.

 

"In various ways, effects of those factors have dissipated. In the past three years, home teams have not cracked a 52 percent winning percentage. More than half of this season’s playoff teams — the Bengals, Patriots, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Cardinals and 49ers — posted a better record on the road than at home."

 

 

The article explains why home-field advantage, which was roughly 3 points in the past, is now about 1/2 a point:

 

1. Better commincation between QB and coaches via helmet, thus negating crown-noise to an extent.

2. More no-huddle play/hurry-up offenses, with play calls, often involving a single word or hand-gesture. This lack of a huddle does not give the home crowd as much of a chance to affect the play. [When a team breaks the huddle is when the fans get the loudest, often egged up by the announcer.].

3. Easier to access away tickets, meaning teams that travel well can take over a stadium. [Buffalo's Pinto Ron was cited as an example (in the first pic below), where he used to have to place classified in the newspapers' away towns to get tickets; now he just goes online and gets them in five minutes]

 

 

 

4. With seat licenses, the crowds have become more upscale, and the riff raff has been relegated to local bars. The upscale crowd is more tolerant of away-team fans, and even welcoming.

5. Teams travel more comfortably, in full-size jets, and the team comes equipped like mobile "MASH" units, with players using compressions boots and sleeves on the plane. The whole plane is like first-class. Ballrooms in the hotel are set up with tables, ice tubs, etc. Players stay in the hotel the night of the game and can focus on treating their bodies, as opposed to at home.

6. NFL visiting locker rooms standards have improved recently, with more space for things like trainer tables for massages and players' gear. They are more comfortable and less stressful for players.

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

Quote

 

"“There are certain metrics that tell you your guys are going to perform this way,” [Ron] Rivera said. “Certain things as far as the analytics or the sports science tells you about how to travel, what to eat when you travel, what’s the best time to meet, all those things.”

 

Scott Trulock, now the head athletic trainer at Florida State, worked in the NFL for two decades, most recently as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ director of player health and performance. He saw firsthand how road teams chipped away at their disadvantage, from studies about the effects of changing time zones to having players travel wearing compression sleeves."

 

 

Also, before someone says Buffalo is 0-4 on the road in the payoffs under McD, you have to look more closely. In 2017, we would have lost to JAX regardless, as the team was young and still had Tyrod. In 2019, it was pretty much a toss up. We could have just as well blown the 16-0 lead at home, or beaten Houston at their place. The teams were even. In 2020, KC was clearly the better team and we would have gotten blown out at home too. In 2021, we had KC beat on the road and should have won. CIN did win the following week. Also, especially in the first few rounds, the home team is generally better than the road team (sometimes a lot better). So it is like a self-fulfilling prophecy that the home team wins.

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by chongli

[GreggTX]

The 1st seed gets a bye. No chance to lose to a playoff caliber team, less wear and tear, more time to prepare for round 2 and greatly reduced risk of injury. Those the real advantages of 1st seed. Playing at home isn't much of an advantage compared to all that.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

58 minutes ago, chongli said:

Of all the advantages cited in the excellent post on page 1 above by @Long Suffering Fan, I agree that home-field advantage has become less important nowadays.

 

Look at this article from The Washington Post (subscription required with limited articles for free):

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

 

The article explains why home-field advantage, which was roughly 3 points in the past, is now about 1/2 a point:

 

1. Better commincation between QB and coaches via helmet, thus negating crown-noise to an extent.

2. More no-huddle play/hurry-up offenses, with play calls, often involving a single word or hand-gesture. This lack of a huddle does not give the home crowd as much of a chance to affect the play. [When a team breaks the huddle is when the fans get the loudest, often egged up by the announcer.].

3. Easier to access away tickets, meaning teams that travel well can take over a stadium. [Buffalo's Pinto Ron was cited as an example (in the first pic below), where he used to have to place classified in the newspapers' away towns to get tickets; now he just goes online and gets them in five minutes]

 

 

 

4. With seat licenses, the crowds have become more upscale, and the riff raff has been relegated to local bars. The upscale crowd is more tolerant of away-team fans, and even welcoming.

5. Teams travel more comfortably, in full-size jets, and the team comes equipped like mobile "MASH" units, with players using compressions boots and sleeves on the plane. The whole plane is like first-class. Ballrooms in the hotel are set up with tables, ice tubs, etc. Players stay in the hotel the night of the game and can focus on treating their bodies, as opposed to at home.

6. NFL visiting locker rooms standards have improved recently, with more space for things like trainer tables for massages and players' gear. They are more comfortable and less stressful for players.

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

 

Also, before someone says Buffalo is 0-4 on the road in the payoffs under McD, you have to look more closely. In 2017, we would have lost to JAX regardless, as the team was young and still had Tyrod. In 2019, it was pretty much a toss up. We could have just as well blown the 16-0 lead at home, or beaten Houston at their place. The teams were even. In 2020, KC was clearly the better team and we would have gotten blown out at home too. In 2021, we had KC beat on the road and should have won. CIN did win the following week. Also, especially in the first few rounds, the home team is generally better than the road team (sometimes a lot better). So it is like a self-fulfilling prophecy that the home team wins.

 

 

 

 

 I guess I'll first off with home team win percentages are back up to 56%(55.6%) this year, which is where they were prior to 2018 as stated in the article above. 

 

 The info you provided I'm sure is all true, but those stats are for the regular season, not playoffs. Teams like the Texans aren't going to be in the playoffs, who are going to finish 0-7-1 at home this year. Generally playoff teams have a better home record than teams that don't make the playoffs. As I said above the home team has won 55.6% of the time this year, when you include just teams that have currently clinched a playoff spot the home team's win percentage increases to 77.5%(62-18).

 

 

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

The bye is the important thing.  Sure it’s great to get home field, but I’d rather have a week off and get all the players healthy.  I seriously doubt the Raiders win today anyway.

[Tanoros]

7 hours ago, chongli said:

Of all the advantages cited in the excellent post on page 1 above by @Long Suffering Fan, I agree that home-field advantage has become less important nowadays.

 

Look at this article from The Washington Post (subscription required with limited articles for free):

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

 

The article explains why home-field advantage, which was roughly 3 points in the past, is now about 1/2 a point:

 

1. Better commincation between QB and coaches via helmet, thus negating crown-noise to an extent.

2. More no-huddle play/hurry-up offenses, with play calls, often involving a single word or hand-gesture. This lack of a huddle does not give the home crowd as much of a chance to affect the play. [When a team breaks the huddle is when the fans get the loudest, often egged up by the announcer.].

3. Easier to access away tickets, meaning teams that travel well can take over a stadium. [Buffalo's Pinto Ron was cited as an example (in the first pic below), where he used to have to place classified in the newspapers' away towns to get tickets; now he just goes online and gets them in five minutes]

 

 

 

4. With seat licenses, the crowds have become more upscale, and the riff raff has been relegated to local bars. The upscale crowd is more tolerant of away-team fans, and even welcoming.

5. Teams travel more comfortably, in full-size jets, and the team comes equipped like mobile "MASH" units, with players using compressions boots and sleeves on the plane. The whole plane is like first-class. Ballrooms in the hotel are set up with tables, ice tubs, etc. Players stay in the hotel the night of the game and can focus on treating their bodies, as opposed to at home.

6. NFL visiting locker rooms standards have improved recently, with more space for things like trainer tables for massages and players' gear. They are more comfortable and less stressful for players.

 

[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]

 

Also, before someone says Buffalo is 0-4 on the road in the payoffs under McD, you have to look more closely. In 2017, we would have lost to JAX regardless, as the team was young and still had Tyrod. In 2019, it was pretty much a toss up. We could have just as well blown the 16-0 lead at home, or beaten Houston at their place. The teams were even. In 2020, KC was clearly the better team and we would have gotten blown out at home too. In 2021, we had KC beat on the road and should have won. CIN did win the following week. Also, especially in the first few rounds, the home team is generally better than the road team (sometimes a lot better). So it is like a self-fulfilling prophecy that the home team wins.

 

 

 

Thank you for this very detailed post with references and summaries. I really appreciate the effort you put into this. 

[chongli]

7 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 I guess I'll first off with home team win percentages are back up to 56%(55.6%) this year, which is where they were prior to 2018 as stated in the article above. 

 

 The info you provided I'm sure is all true, but those stats are for the regular season, not playoffs. Teams like the Texans aren't going to be in the playoffs, who are going to finish 0-7-1 at home this year. Generally playoff teams have a better home record than teams that don't make the playoffs. As I said above the home team has won 55.6% of the time this year, when you include just teams that have currently clinched a playoff spot the home team's win percentage increases to 77.5%(62-18).

 

 

 

 

 

You bring up a good point I hadn't thought of (and that really wasn't covered in the article). The article mentioned a lot of playoff teams had better records on the road than at home, but didn't go into playoffs. It was also from last season too.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I have changed my tune on the 1 seed.

 

It is looking like the chargers are locked into the 5 seed. So that probably

means the 1 seed gets them in the divisional round. I would rather play the 3/4 winner (bengals or likely ravens). 

[Mango]

It feels like the fan base is really locked in on the one seed. There’s a lot of expectation for this team, and I think it’s more important to Buffalo fans than the Buffalo team right now. 
 

Ultimately you need to play your best football in January. Do that and everything will take care of itself. Once you kick the ball off seeding doesn’t matter. 
 

This is a lot of conversation about nothing as far as I’m concerned. 

[Arkady Renko]

23 hours ago, billsfanmiamioh said:

I really hate the new 7 team format. The 6 team with top 2 getting a bye was perfect. 

The problem is the divisions being too small.  A lot more terrible division winners now.  I’d prefer going back to three division winners and three wild cards or just giving no teams byes. 

[Beast]

The AFC is a meat grinder. The less games you have to play the better, obviously. 
 

Also, playing KC or Cincy is a tough task. Back to back is amazingly difficult.

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, Arkady Renko said:

The problem is the divisions being too small.  A lot more terrible division winners now.  I’d prefer going back to three division winners and three wild cards or just giving no teams byes. 

Yeah, the bye thing is weird. It doesn’t really exist anywhere else in sports. I’m ok with getting rid of it.  

[bills6969]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

The bye is the important thing.  Sure it’s great to get home field, but I’d rather have a week off and get all the players healthy.  I seriously doubt the Raiders win today anyway.

I’d rather have homefield.  Sometimes the bye hurts momentum.

[NickelCity]

23 hours ago, msw2112 said:

This is a difficult situation where nobody is the winner. 

 

Except the chiefs. Home field is a paltry advantage compared to the rest of 1 seed advantages. 

[Airseven]

#1 seed wasn’t about history or numbers. It was about Bills/Chiefs and the way the Bills season ended the past two years.

Losing the bye is crushing. But the Bills still have an advantageous path and saved from Arrowhead.

[chongli]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

Yeah, the bye thing is weird. It doesn’t really exist anywhere else in sports. I’m ok with getting rid of it.  

 

Yeah, I agree. No need for byes. (But MLB has byes too. So does NCAA basketball, to a small extent (the First Four). And so will NCAA football when they expand the playoffs. Also NBA with the play-in games.)

Edited January 7, 2023 by chongli