Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[Dr.Sack]

7 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

Bills should show they're tougher than the Bengals, so many go no sleeves,  i say they go full Keenum, jockstraps no pants.

I bet the Bengals cheerleaders wouldn’t mind seeing someone else in more revealing undergarments. 

[BADOLBILZ]

21 minutes ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

The Bills are going to win the Super Bowl and forever end this Red Helmet obsession. 

 

 

I think we are only 5-10 years away from the NFL playing some games where teams wear their rivals colors for a game.........and young Bills fans happily wearing the Bills logo around town in teal and orange.........much to the disdain of the generation now that loves the terrible color rush uni's. 

[BRH]

6 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I agree.  This game was much bigger then the Monday night game against the Bengal's.  If the Bills had lost that game they would likely have lost the division.

 

 

Except I don’t think anyone thought there was a snowball’s chance in hell of us losing that 2nd Pats game last year. 

[Chicken Boo]

2 of the top 3 QBs in football currently.

 

I expect a high scoring affair with a lot of it coming in the 2nd half.  

 

This should be a fantastic game.

[Special K]

4 hours ago, SCBills said:

Fwiw… I’d take Mixon over Singletary 

 

I wouldn't want Mixon anywhere near my team.

 

I'm pretty darn sure Singletary never did anything like this:

 

[newcam2012]

22 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

2 of the top 3 QBs in football currently.

 

I expect a high scoring affair with a lot of it coming in the 2nd half.  

 

This should be a fantastic game.

I think it goes right down to the end. The QB with the ball last will bring his team down the field for the winning FG.

[Chicken Boo]

2 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I think it goes right down to the end. The QB with the ball last will bring his team down the field for the winning FG.

 

Either that or a mistake to end it.  I also believe it comes down to the last drive and will be a 1 score game.

[newcam2012]

12 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

I wouldn't want Mixon anywhere near my team.

 

I'm pretty darn sure Singletary never did anything like this:

 

Is this a fight scene from a movie? 

[Special K]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

Is this a fight scene from a movie? 

 

No thats Joe Mixon punching a woman at a bar when he was in college.

[newcam2012]

30 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

No thats Joe Mixon punching a woman at a bar when he was in college.

OMG. 

[Richard Noggin]

On 12/28/2022 at 12:43 AM, arcane said:

That doesn't mean each team is equally likely to win lol 

 

I presented a perfectly legitimate binary operating under the same rules you outlined

I'll try another one. The poster is correct in saying that the odds of a team winning a given game aren't 50/50. If the Eagles played the Texans 100 times over the next two years, they would win substantially more than 50 of the games. That is what he's saying

 

Saying that the odds are 50/50 because only winning and losing are possible options is like saying that the odds of me passing a Harvard admissions test are 50/50, because it's a pass/fail test. Clearly my odds can vary based on how smart I am. If I am >150 IQ, my odds are probably significantly higher than 50%. If I am <100 IQ, my odds are significantly lower than 50%, even though it's "Pass or Fail" with no other options

 

I was clearly talking about pure mathematical possibility here, with only two possible results. Any kind of handicapping based on analysis is predictive, and therefore subjective. 

 

You're not wrong either, but what you're working with is not just mathematical probabilities.

17 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

So it's 50/50 this week between the Broncos vs KC? If so, I'll take KC and bet you a huge amount. I mean it's a coin flip as you say. 

Man, everyone is misinterpreting what I was saying. Of course we can predict that one team is more likely to win a given game, but that doesn't change the mathematical probability because we don't actually know what will transpire on game day other than one of the two teams will win, (in the playoffs, at least).

[Franco_92]

4 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I was clearly talking about pure mathematical possibility here, with only two possible results. Any kind of handicapping based on analysis is predictive, and therefore subjective. 

 

You're not wrong either, but what you're working with is not just mathematical probabilities.

There is no meaningful mathematical sense in which we would want to describe the outcome of a football game as "50/50 because you either win or lose"

[Richard Noggin]

7 minutes ago, arcane said:

There is no meaningful mathematical sense in which we would want to describe the outcome of a football game as "50/50 because you either win or lose"

I know that recent progress in analytics has dramatically changed the way most fans, and especially gamblers, view probabilities. But the fact remains that a hypothetical look at probabilities of surviving a 3-game AFC playoff tournament as a non-1 seed versus a 2-game tournament as a 1-seed is not something we can preemptively permutate beyond the 50/50 maths. 

 

Once we know specific matchups there are myriad ways to handicap and predict outcomes based on data and calculations well beyond my understanding. So I'm not being obtuse here. I'm basing this stance on the post that originated this line of discussion, and the somewhat simple rules governing probabilities and permutations.  

[Chandler#81]

There’s plays that make a highlight reel. There’s plays that make a season. Then there’s plays that make history!

https://fb.watch/hIWNk1-XIt/

[Richard Noggin]

9 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

There’s plays that make a highlight reel. There’s plays that make a season. Then there’s plays that make history!

https://fb.watch/hIWNk1-XIt/

 

So many of those felt great to re-live. The Gabe Davis 4-TD example still hurt, turns out. I've never re-watched that game. SUCH a traumatic letdown. (And coming from a Bills fan of a certain age, we know the use of the term "traumatic" is not frivolous.) 

[Dr.Sack]

Joe Mixon is a dirty as Mac Jones

[dma0034]

I think the defenses step up in this but the Bills win 20-17

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

10 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

They have a very good chance of beating Bridgewater and the Fins this week to set up a potential playoff berth for themselves as crazy as it sounds. If they beat the Fins then it's win and in for them against us.

I remember 2 years ago when we played Miami in the last game and it was a “win and in” scenario for them too. Then we crushed them 56-26. One of my fav Bills games of all time. I hope New England beats the Fins just so we can do it again. Would be a high note to end the season on 😁

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, Dr.Sack said:

Joe Mixon is a dirty as Mac Jones

Has he done anything like that since college? He might have redeemed himself by now.

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I was clearly talking about pure mathematical possibility here, with only two possible results. Any kind of handicapping based on analysis is predictive, and therefore subjective. 

 

You're not wrong either, but what you're working with is not just mathematical probabilities.

Man, everyone is misinterpreting what I was saying. Of course we can predict that one team is more likely to win a given game, but that doesn't change the mathematical probability because we don't actually know what will transpire on game day other than one of the two teams will win, (in the playoffs, at least).

To be clear and I understand your point let me ask you this. If I have a 200 yard race against a cheetah it is a 50/50 result because there are only 2 possible outcomes mathmatically. Am I correct? 

Edited December 29, 2022 by newcam2012

[timekills17]

42 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

To be clear and I understand your point let me ask you this. If I have a 200 yard race against a cheetah it is a 50/50 result because there are only 2 possible outcomes mathmatically. Am I correct? 

 

Yes. Either it catches you and kills you quickly, or it catches you and plays with you for a while before killing you.

 

It's about 50/50 which of those happens.

[LeGOATski]

15 minutes ago, timekills17 said:

 

Yes. Either it catches you and kills you quickly, or it catches you and plays with you for a while before killing you.

 

It's about 50/50 which of those happens.

Nah, cheetahs are smallish and can't be expending the energy to play with their food. They kill quick. It's the bigger cats like the lions and tigers (and even a leopard now and then) that'll play with ya.

 

newcam2012 is right, the odds are more like 70/30.

[GETTOTHE50]

Nobody in the history of the nfl has had the will of JA17 asides from maybe a couple players, like Brady and ray Lewis. 

he has the competitive will that Jordan had.

 

I think he’s going to go scorched earth against the bengals.  

[LeGOATski]

3 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Nobody in the history of the nfl has had the will of JA17 asides from maybe a couple players, like Brady and ray Lewis. 

he has the competitive will that Jordan had.

 

I think he’s going to go scorched earth against the bengals.  

If the Bills lose and/or Josh has a terrible game, I'm not coming to TBD for the rest of the week.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[CSBill]

14 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

They have a very good chance of beating Bridgewater and the Fins this week to set up a potential playoff berth for themselves as crazy as it sounds. If they beat the Fins then it's win and in for them against us.

 

This is so weird, but deep down I hope the Pats win to help keep the Fish out of the play-offs. Then again, all for naught as the Pats will loose next week in Buffalo.

[Whites Bay]

44 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

If the Bills lose and/or Josh has a terrible game, I'm not coming to TBD for the rest of the week.

I learned this years ago on this site.  This place becomes a Cuisinart.

[balln]

1 hour ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Nobody in the history of the nfl has had the will of JA17 asides from maybe a couple players, like Brady and ray Lewis. 

he has the competitive will that Jordan had.

 

I think he’s going to go scorched earth against the bengals.  

Mahommes has it too 

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

If the Bills lose and/or Josh has a terrible game, I'm not coming to TBD for the rest of the week.

That has always been a wise policy.  It has, however, become almost as unbearable after wins.  

[FLFan]

11 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I'm kind of amazed at some of the national media I'm hearing. I'm hearing a lot of Bengals predictions. Pretty much every soundbite I hear as to why the Bills won't make the super Bowl applies to them: they've won ugly the past few weeks. They've beat up on bad teams with the NFC South looking like a dumpster fire.

 

Am I missing something? Because I get that Burrow throws a pretty ball and Jamar Chase is hell on wheels. Is there some facet of their team we haven't seen. I know their receivers are good but I don't know if they are better than Hill, Waddle and Gisecki. Burrow is great but he's not as mobile as Mahommes and can be sacked. Their D is ok to good but the Ravens, Jets and Patriots is better. 

 

What am I not getting? 

In general, there is way too much respect being paid to the Bengals.  They have managed to beat the weaker teams on their schedule, not always impressively, and other than their signature win against the Chiefs have lost to the better teams.  (They beat Miami without Tua) Their QB and WRs are elite, but Burrow can be gotten to, and their offense can be controlled.  It may be a tight game, but a double digit Bills win would not surprise me.  The Bills are the better team.  

[YoloinOhio]

 

[eball]

I love that the Bengals are the ones getting all the talk leading up to this game. The Bills are very good at playing with a chip on their shoulders. 
 

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, eball said:

I love that the Bengals are the ones getting all the talk leading up to this game. The Bills are very good at playing with a chip on their shoulders. 
 

Will those shoulder ‘chips’ be included in this week’s injury update? 😉

[Coach Tuesday]

21 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

This is one of his only “weaknesses” - he struggles a bit with flooded zone coverages.  Bills march up pretty well on defense against the Bengals.

[Greg S]

Chris Simms tell us how you feel.

 

(1) Bills Chat Podcast on Twitter: "Chris Simms: "If I'm playing against the Bills, I'm throwing at whoever is being covered by 27. Tre'Davious White is not himself out there and whoever he is covering will be open" Ouch" / Twitter

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, CSBill said:

 

This is so weird, but deep down I hope the Pats win to help keep the Fish out of the play-offs. Then again, all for naught as the Pats will loose next week in Buffalo.

 

Any of the Pats, Jets, Fins or Titans/Jags could get the last wildcard spot as of now...

 

Should set up for a pretty wild finish.

3 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Chris Simms tell us how you feel.

 

(1) Bills Chat Podcast on Twitter: "Chris Simms: "If I'm playing against the Bills, I'm throwing at whoever is being covered by 27. Tre'Davious White is not himself out there and whoever he is covering will be open" Ouch" / Twitter

 

Tre hasn't been terrible...he made quite a few pass breakups against the Fins.

[clayboy54]

1 hour ago, balln said:

Mahommes has it too 

We really do not know what'll happen when the Rat faces some real adversity. He's such a wiener that I could see him pout for a little while though.

[Beck Water]

12 minutes ago, Greg S said:

Chris Simms tell us how you feel.

 

(1) Bills Chat Podcast on Twitter: "Chris Simms: "If I'm playing against the Bills, I'm throwing at whoever is being covered by 27. Tre'Davious White is not himself out there and whoever he is covering will be open" Ouch" / Twitter

 

I normally like Chris Simms, but I don't know what he's eating or smoking this week. 

 

First we have the Bills won't be able to run _at all_ against the Bengals with DJ Reader - despite the fact that KC ran for 138 yds with Reader playing 73% of the snaps.  Then we have "Bengals will play a lot of man because Diggs is the only Bills receiver who can get open against man" despite the fact that McKenzie has had big games when teams try to man him up..

 

Now we have "throw at whoever is covered by 27" despite 1) the Bills play a lot of zone 2) QB currently have a 53.6% completion % against White

 

 

[Big Turk]

 

9 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I normally like Chris Simms, but I don't know what he's eating or smoking this week. 

 

First we have the Bills won't be able to run _at all_ against the Bengals with DJ Reader - despite the fact that KC ran for 138 yds with Reader playing 73% of the snaps.  Then we have "Bengals will play a lot of man because Diggs is the only Bills receiver who can get open against man" despite the fact that McKenzie has had big games when teams try to man him up..

 

Now we have "throw at whoever is covered by 27" despite 1) the Bills play a lot of zone 2) QB currently have a 53.6% completion % against White

 

 

 

Yeah, I am not sure about that...Baldy did a break down where he showed Tre in excellent coverage and making plays on the ball numerous times against the Fins. Called him "Tangled up with Tre"...he is mostly just missing consistency right now, which will come as he gets more and more reps, I think.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Big Turk

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

The best MNF ever is the 1974 season opener, Bills vs. Raiders.  Best game I ever saw at Rich Stadium.