Would Bills Have Been Better Off with a Punt Instead of a Safety at End of Game?

[st pete gogolak]

If the Miami punter (who had an absolutely outstanding game by the way) had gotten the punt off from his end zone, I'm guessing that the Bills would have had the ball around the Miami 40 - 45 yard line with a little over a minute left, no timeouts and still needing a touchdown.  Would that have been better or worse than the safety?  I think it's probably a coin flip.  If a safety was the smarter play, Miami should have taken a safety on purpose.  Anyone have the analytics?

[97bills]

No because we couldn’t even get in field goal range to win the game. So I don’t see us driving 50 yards to get a td. And that’s if he only punted 50 yards, that one punt he had in the early part of the game was about 65 yards I believe. What hurt on that last drive was diggs dropping that first pass that would of put us at the 40. With plenty of time left 

[DocLawless]

5 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

If the Miami punter (who had an absolutely outstanding game by the way) had gotten the punt off from his end zone, I'm guessing that the Bills would have had the ball around the Miami 40 - 45 yard line with a little over a minute left, no timeouts and still needing a touchdown.  Would that have been better or worse than the safety?  I think it's probably a coin flip.  If a safety was the smarter play, Miami should have taken a safety on purpose.  Anyone have the analytics?

It's definitely debatable. My opinion is that it worked out in our favor based on the way the bills were moving the ball up and down the field into the red zone territory, without being able to come away with points. I think it's easier to get into field goal range than to punch it into the end zone. 

[Ned Flanders]

I thought about this scenario, along with hundreds of others, as well. 

[Rc2catch]

It only takes one play.. one missed coverage assignment. 
They did plenty to win the game. 
They did plenty to lose the game. 
Allen threw 5-6 balls that probably should have been intercepted. He could have just as easily been picked trying to force one in the end zone to win the game. 
 

[Big Turk]

I think so...Bills would have needed a TD starting from around midfield or maybe even in Dolphin territory because their punter would have had to rush to get a punt off due to being backed up against their own endzone and not having the normal distance.

 

Crowder had some good returns and could have even given them getter position.

 

IMO, starting at midfield needing 7 is better than starting at your own 25 when the punter has no pressure and can boom the ball needing 3.  Allen would have had multiple shots from the endzone once they got around the 25.

[streetkings01]

I thought about that too. The punt might’ve been better for us ……we definitely get the ball at midfield. Only is our offense was stalling in the redzone while Miami’s offense was efficient.

[corta765]

Depends on if you thought they would score a TD which they couldn't in four plays earlier. In theory going from being down 4 with the ball at midfieldish to 2 needing just a FG to win but ball at 20 would lean big time towards the FG. But I can understand the otherside logic also.

[pocoboy]

14 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

If the Miami punter (who had an absolutely outstanding game by the way) had gotten the punt off from his end zone, I'm guessing that the Bills would have had the ball around the Miami 40 - 45 yard line with a little over a minute left, no timeouts and still needing a touchdown.  Would that have been better or worse than the safety?  I think it's probably a coin flip.  If a safety was the smarter play, Miami should have taken a safety on purpose.  Anyone have the analytics?

 

Ken Dorsey learned an awful lot in plays that closed the 1st and 2nd halves.

 

There's a good reason teams run outs on the sidelines with little time left. He got cute and he forgot in his cozy little coaches box that his players were completely spent.

 

It wasn't his best day, and he knew it (as documented by the footage).

Edited September 26, 2022 by pocoboy

[Royale with Cheese]

Chris Brown was on the field and said that at the midpoint of the 3rd quarter, the WR were running at 3/4 speed at best.  They were totally gassed.

I don't think they would have marched 50 yards downfield to score a TD.

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

It only takes one play.. one missed coverage assignment. 
They did plenty to win the game. 
They did plenty to lose the game. 
Allen threw 5-6 balls that probably should have been intercepted. He could have just as easily been picked trying to force one in the end zone to win the game. 
 

 

And Milano had a pick 6 thrown right to him too...I mean defensive players play defense for a reason usually...

[SCBills]

Yes.  
 

To get in FG range, we had time for one middle of the field pass and then had to work the sidelines. 
 

To get a TD, we had to go a similar distance, but had time for one middle of the field pass (get to around the 30) and then we can work sideline or take end zone shots. 
 

With the OL issues we were having, Allen didn’t have time to sit back and let quick sideline routes develop with the blitzes.. it was that bad given exhaustion and injuries.  If they want to blitz and let Allen break contain with the ability to throw to any part of the end zone, I’d take my chances there. 
 

Edited September 26, 2022 by SCBills

[RoyBatty is alive]

3 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

It only takes one play.. one missed coverage assignment. 
They did plenty to win the game. 
They did plenty to lose the game. 
Allen threw 5-6 balls that probably should have been intercepted. He could have just as easily been picked trying to force one in the end zone to win the game. 
 

All true.

 

I  consider this like the Pats Wind game last year, both as far as I am concerned you can "throw away".  Two losses while the Bills were the better team.  Both dictated by weather, under normal conditions, bill win both games.  Good thing is we learned from them and i hope we approach similar situations differently.  Also Chargers Chiefs lost so how much did we really lose?

[The Frankish Reich]

We need a rule change on safeties. Modern NFL punters will easily get 60 yards in the air on a free kick with lots of hang time, so little opportunity for return. Which pins the receiving time back inside their own 30 or deeper. There’s too many situations (not Sunday) in which “taking the safety” is the better strategy. Give the team awarded the safety the ball on their own 40 or 45 and the equation changes, making it a better/fairer game. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

We need a rule change on safeties. Modern NFL punters will easily get 60 yards in the air on a free kick with lots of hang time, so little opportunity for return. Which pins the receiving time back inside their own 30 or deeper. There’s too many situations (not Sunday) in which “taking the safety” is the better strategy. Give the team awarded the safety the ball on their own 40 or 45 and the equation changes, making it a better/fairer game. 

Come on.

 

We had the over time rules changes last year.  But now since they had a great punt you want suddenly to change that rule?  

 

Won't happen.

[Herc11]

15 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

We need a rule change on safeties. Modern NFL punters will easily get 60 yards in the air on a free kick with lots of hang time, so little opportunity for return. Which pins the receiving time back inside their own 30 or deeper. There’s too many situations (not Sunday) in which “taking the safety” is the better strategy. Give the team awarded the safety the ball on their own 40 or 45 and the equation changes, making it a better/fairer game. 

Thats absurd. We need to stop being cry babies blaming losses on rules that have been in existence forever.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Herc11

[Success]

I was actually kind of disappointed that the punt went that way.  I doubt he would have kicked it past the 35 - we would have had a better shot for a TD in that scenario, imo.

 

[The Frankish Reich]

11 minutes ago, Herc11 said:

Thats absurd. We need to stop being cry babies blaming losses on rules that have been in existence forever.

Why not? We change rules all the time when the existing rule promotes gamesmanship that allows one side (offense or defense) a better chance to win by avoiding actual competitive plays on the field. This is why the NFL is still the king of American sports. 
Nobody’s blaming the loss on the rules. In fact, Miami obviously (and correctly) rejected the strategy of “take the safety.” I’m just saying that there are some games in which that is sound strategy. And boring strategy for the fans who want a real competitive ending to a close game. You can equate this to a rule change that disincentivizes endless end of game fouling in the NBA - that too is sometimes an effective strategy that kills the chance for an exciting finish. 

[TheBrownBear]

21 minutes ago, Success said:

I was actually kind of disappointed that the punt went that way.  I doubt he would have kicked it past the 35 - we would have had a better shot for a TD in that scenario, imo.

 

I was just disappointed that the ball didn't get permanently lodged in his blocker's backside.  That would have really been something.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I was actually somewhat surprised Miami attempted to punt.  I expected them on 4th down to take an intentional safety for the reasons mentioned.  But the other side is it changed from needing a FG to a TD.

[The Frankish Reich]

From the weirdly interesting Wiki page on safeties - how “strategic safeties” may be used (and to me, how they can sap the energy from a game):

“In American football, intentionally conceded safeties are an uncommon strategy. Teams have utilized elective safeties to gain field position for a punt when pinned deep in their own territory[12][13] and, when ahead near the end of a game, to run down the clock so as to deny the other team a chance to force a turnover or return a punt.[14][15][16][17]Teams have also taken intentional safeties by kicking a loose ball out the back of their end zone, with the intent of preventing the defense from scoring a touchdown.[18][19]”

 

 

[RocCityRoller]

Count me in in the take a Safety on purpose crowd.

 

The score was 21-17. Nothing good was going to happen (for Miami) punting from the 1 yard line. There is a reason most coaches will do three runs into a cloud of dust for even 5 yards when pinned within the 5 yard line. Have seen plenty of well respected coaches just snap the ball out of the endzone there for the Safety.

 

Miami was quite lucky the punt was not recovered for a TD.

 

It was a healthy debate where I was watching with good points on both sides.

[RoyBatty is alive]

13 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I was actually somewhat surprised Miami attempted to punt.  I expected them on 4th down to take an intentional safety for the reasons mentioned.  But the other side is it changed from needing a FG to a TD.

As a corollary to that, instead of risking that pass which could have been intercepted the dolphins should have just ran it again on 4th down.  To your point, they get a safety even if they dont it it out of the end zone, at least they would have not stopped  clock.

[The Frankish Reich]

4 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

Count me in in the take a Safety on purpose crowd.

 

The score was 21-17. Nothing good was going to happen (for Miami) punting from the 1 yard line. There is a reason most coaches will do three runs into a cloud of dust for even 5 yards when pinned within the 5 yard line. Have seen plenty of well respected coaches just snap the ball out of the endzone there for the Safety.

 

Miami was quite lucky the punt was not recovered for a TD.

 

It was a healthy debate where I was watching with good points on both sides.

I haven’t seen the stats geeks opine on this yet, but here’s what MIami had to consider:

- safety + free kick = Bills take over at about the 30, needing about 30 yards for a 50/50 chance at a FG, or about 40 yards for a 70/30 chance. 
- punt from their own end zone (without full snap distance) = reasonable chance at a block, which could mean a safety (if did) or a Bills TD if recovered in the end zone. Otherwise, Bills probably take ove at Miami’s 40 or so, needing 40 yards for a TD. 

This was a really close call. Now that I think about it, I have to guess that the unintentional safety led to a higher Miami win percentage than a punt. Since most safeties are boring plays (Announcer: “and there’s a flag on the field … if that’s intentional grounding and the QB was in his own end zone,

it’s a safety!!), I’d prefer to incentivize the more exciting alternatives. 

[Charles Romes]

No. We had two perfect chances to win the game with drives at the end and we blew them both. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

As a corollary to that, instead of risking that pass which could have been intercepted the dolphins should have just ran it again on 4th down.  To your point, they get a safety even if they dont it it out of the end zone, at least they would have not stopped  clock.

 

You talking about the 3rd down pass?  Clock stops on change of possession so would have been about the same time ran off after 4th down.

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

You talking about the 3rd down pass?  Clock stops on change of possession so would have been about the same time ran off after 4th down.

Yes meant on the 3rd down, definitely should have run it on 3rd.  The actual time to  punt on 4th down was maybe what 7 seconds.  

[Big Turk]

23 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

As a corollary to that, instead of risking that pass which could have been intercepted the dolphins should have just ran it again on 4th down.  To your point, they get a safety even if they dont it it out of the end zone, at least they would have not stopped  clock.

 

I didn't get that play call at all. Either they get a safety which wouldn't have been the worst thing in the world, or they end up having to punt(or take a safety) but still run 40 seconds off the clock.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Big Turk

[eball]

Having analyzed this scenario thoroughly, I can conclusively say “maybe.”

 

Despite everything they were up against the Bills had this game in their hands and lost it.  I’m not losing sleep over it, and I look forward to the next matchup.

 

[ExiledInIllinois]

3 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

It only takes one play.. one missed coverage assignment. 
They did plenty to win the game. 
They did plenty to lose the game. 
Allen threw 5-6 balls that probably should have been intercepted. He could have just as easily been picked trying to force one in the end zone to win the game. 
 

Milano dropped a sure pick-6.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

No because Miami’s drive went as poorly as you could have hoped for.

 

It took next to no time off the clock.

 

The holding penalty really killed what was looking like a comeback win.

[GolfandBills]

Definitely want the safety there then only need 3 to win.  The punter just hit a really good one and backed us up

[ExiledInIllinois]

2 hours ago, eball said:

Having analyzed this scenario thoroughly, I can conclusively say “maybe.”

 

Despite everything they were up against the Bills had this game in their hands and lost it.  I’m not losing sleep over it, and I look forward to the next matchup.

 

Si... Did you check then the Stat Sheet.  Teams don't lose many games like that.  If McD isn't lose with his TO's in the 3rd quarter.  They attempt a long FG to win. 

1 minute ago, GolfandBills said:

Definitely want the safety there then only need 3 to win.  The punter just hit a really good one and backed us up

This.  AND if that ball stays in..  It's a possible TD for Bills right there.

 

The Miami coach is an idiot.  He burned his TOs early too. Dolphins got lucky.

[UKBillFan]

3 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Why not? We change rules all the time when the existing rule promotes gamesmanship that allows one side (offense or defense) a better chance to win by avoiding actual competitive plays on the field. This is why the NFL is still the king of American sports. 
Nobody’s blaming the loss on the rules. In fact, Miami obviously (and correctly) rejected the strategy of “take the safety.” I’m just saying that there are some games in which that is sound strategy. And boring strategy for the fans who want a real competitive ending to a close game. You can equate this to a rule change that disincentivizes endless end of game fouling in the NBA - that too is sometimes an effective strategy that kills the chance for an exciting finish. 

 

Rams elected to take a safety against the Falcons last week.

Edited September 26, 2022 by UKBillFan

[Motorin']

3 hours ago, Ned Flanders said:

I thought about this scenario, along with hundreds of others, as well. 

 

I think we need a thread for each one of those thoughts!

[strive_for_five_guy]

9 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Si... Did you check then the Stat Sheet.  Teams don't lose many games like that.  If McD isn't lose with his TO's in the 3rd quarter.  They attempt a long FG to win. 

This.  AND if that ball stays in..  It's a possible TD for Bills right there.

 

The Miami coach is an idiot.  He burned his TOs early too. Dolphins got lucky.

It would have been so awesome if the butt punt had resulted in a TD for us right there 🙁

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I think so...Bills would have needed a TD starting from around midfield or maybe even in Dolphin territory because their punter would have had to rush to get a punt off due to being backed up against their own endzone and not having the normal distance.

 

Crowder had some good returns and could have even given them getter position.

 

IMO, starting at midfield needing 7 is better than starting at your own 25 when the punter has no pressure and can boom the ball needing 3.  Allen would have had multiple shots from the endzone once they got around the 25.

Having 3 time outs left would've been even better.

[JoshAllin]

Best if they tipped the ball for a 10-20 yrd punt, which it looked like at first

[Cheektowaga Chad]

The punt would have been better in my opinion

 

Would have needed a touchdown but the bills likely would have started around mid field if not closer to the 40. Plus the bills are great at scoring from just outside the red zone 

[Big Turk]

16 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Having 3 time outs left would've been even better.

 

They weren't going to have any because Miami forced the Bills to use them to get the ball back. The Bills at best would have had one if they didn't use one earlier.

 

Did you even watch the game? This is an asinine post.