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Bills cuts


Chandler#81

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3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

No one bads 100 but if people think the bean isn’t responsible for the Super Bowl caliber team we have going this year they are diluting themselves

 

Beane has made plenty of mistakes;  but he's also done many great things.  I personally love the guy and think he's at/near the top of his craft.  But OL and WR have been semi-neglected coming into this season.  We're also fresh off a KC loss that, in my opinion, was SQUARELY on McDermott.  So, as a duo, they've made recent mistakes and historically, they've also made some whoppers (Nate Peterman painfully comes to mind).

 

But like you said, no HC/GM duo is perfect. 

 

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1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Beane follows his board it served him well so far

 

Right. The RB discussion is fun/interesting for all us armchair GMs, but I smirk when I see the criticism of "wasting" a couple of mid-round picks.

 

Valid criticism and discussion point, but we still have one of the best rosters in the league so not sure how much more Beane could have done.

 

Especially when I look back at the rest of the picks in both Singletary's 3rd round, and Moss's 3rd round. No one else jumps off the page as "We shouldve picked that guy instead". Even looking into the 4th rounds.

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37 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right. The RB discussion is fun/interesting for all us armchair GMs, but I smirk when I see the criticism of "wasting" a couple of mid-round picks.

 

Valid criticism and discussion point, but we still have one of the best rosters in the league so not sure how much more Beane could have done.

 

Especially when I look back at the rest of the picks in both Singletary's 3rd round, and Moss's 3rd round. No one else jumps off the page as "We shouldve picked that guy instead". Even looking into the 4th rounds.

 

In 2019, Terry McLaurin two picks later when we really needed a WR doesn’t jump off the page for you? I agree with you on 2020 though.

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11 minutes ago, MWK said:

 

In 2019, Terry McLaurin two picks later when we really needed a WR doesn’t jump off the page for you? I agree with you on 2020 though.

 

That was one (really the only name I noticed), and I dont love him that much. He certainly doesnt jump off the page as "oh man we really missed out on a future HoFer". Especially compared to what Beane did with the WR group anyways.

 

If there is any criticism it is the 2nd round Cody Ford pick over the plethora of Pro-Bowl WRs that were picked in the 2nd round.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, MWK said:

 

In 2019, Terry McLaurin two picks later when we really needed a WR doesn’t jump off the page for you? I agree with you on 2020 though.

 

 

Wow, hindsight on this one. If I recall correctly he was viewed as a 3rd round pick, by many/most.  Were you vocally upset the Bills didn't pick him AT THE TIME?

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5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

More a question of strategy… No question they have a very good roster, but the high allocation to certain positions over others is where some fans are slightly skeptical.

 

I get it, but it's probably like that for every team to a certain extent. There's some fans of every team that probably are skeptical about one thing or other. Regarding Bills however, sure there's a couple things I would have liked to been done a little differently, but I'm still pretty damn confident in this roster.

 

So we'll see how everything plays out

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1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Full-time as in how Singletary is used?  Not at all.

I also don’t think that this is his full-time wait I think you’re gonna see him add about 10 pounds going into season two

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right. The RB discussion is fun/interesting for all us armchair GMs, but I smirk when I see the criticism of "wasting" a couple of mid-round picks.

 

Valid criticism and discussion point, but we still have one of the best rosters in the league so not sure how much more Beane could have done.

 

Especially when I look back at the rest of the picks in both Singletary's 3rd round, and Moss's 3rd round. No one else jumps off the page as "We shouldve picked that guy instead". Even looking into the 4th rounds.

You also have to weigh those pics against other backs in the league there was a certain running back that a lot of people were fighting over they got taken by the Jets who is not look good in preseason that doesn’t mean that he won’t be good only he has not been good in the limited time I have saw him meanwhile Cook has done some nice things in preseason and then you look at other backs like white for the Raiders he looks phenomenal

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33 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

 

Wow, hindsight on this one. If I recall correctly he was viewed as a 3rd round pick, by many/most.  Were you vocally upset the Bills didn't pick him AT THE TIME?


Many of us were disappointed with the positional value AT THE TIME and were even more disappointed when Beane doubled down the following year.  It is easy to say in retrospect, in a vacuum, well Moss and Singletary are at least competent players while plenty of WRs and DEs picked after them busted out - but if you extrapolate it out over time as a STRATEGY, you will go broke with that type of asset allocation approach.  You cannot use high picks on easily-replaceable assets, especially when the Bills aren’t even trying to focus their offense around an elite running back/game (nor should they).  Even when those picks “hit,” you’re stuck deciding whether to pay them big $$ on a second contract, where much cheaper replacements can be found in FA or the 6th round.  Folks are gonna lose their minds next offseason if they decide to pay Singletary and have to release or pass on more valuable veterans as a result - and that’s precisely the issue.  Was four years of Motor worth the high draft investment?

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A few thoughts from reading the last few pages:

 

Singletary was a 3rd round pick. He's started 40 of 45 games over 3 seasons. That's good value for the 74th overall pick, especially considering he has one more season on his contract.

 

I don't view James Cook as more than a 8-10 touch a game weapon. As to comparisons with Thurman Thomas and Devin Singletary, Thurman had what looks like a sturdier frame than Cook and had nearly 3300 touches in his career. Singletary whose nickname is "Motor" is 5'7", weighs over 200 lbs and can squat 550 lbs.

 

Cook is both taller and lighter than either Thomas or Singletary and appears to have a slight build.

 

I think Cook can be an excellent weapon for this team but I don't see him as a starter or a workhorse.

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As for positional value, like all GMs, Beane has players stacked on his final draft board. Like all GMs he takes positional value into account when stacking the overall board.

 

If he takes an RB in the 3rd round it's because he believes it's a solid value... and he's already discounted that player due to position.

 

Will Beane sometimes reach? He has admitted to taking a player (Terrel Bernard?) above his ranking if there's no one else he likes and if he can't trade down.

 

We all agree that no one bats 1.000 and that Beane does a great job. 

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13 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

As for positional value, like all GMs, Beane has players stacked on his final draft board. Like all GMs he takes positional value into account when stacking the overall board.

 

If he takes an RB in the 3rd round it's because he believes it's a solid value... and he's already discounted that player due to position.

 

Will Beane sometimes reach? He has admitted to taking a player (Terrel Bernard?) above his ranking if there's no one else he likes and if he can't trade down.

 

We all agree that no one bats 1.000 and that Beane does a great job. 


Dude don’t post facts in here 

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1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:


Many of us were disappointed with the positional value AT THE TIME and were even more disappointed when Beane doubled down the following year.  It is easy to say in retrospect, in a vacuum, well Moss and Singletary are at least competent players while plenty of WRs and DEs picked after them busted out - but if you extrapolate it out over time as a STRATEGY, you will go broke with that type of asset allocation approach.  You cannot use high picks on easily-replaceable assets, especially when the Bills aren’t even trying to focus their offense around an elite running back/game (nor should they).  Even when those picks “hit,” you’re stuck deciding whether to pay them big $$ on a second contract, where much cheaper replacements can be found in FA or the 6th round.  Folks are gonna lose their minds next offseason if they decide to pay Singletary and have to release or pass on more valuable veterans as a result - and that’s precisely the issue.  Was four years of Motor worth the high draft investment?

This is an excellent argument, and it may be right.  

 

I don't know what's right.

 

But, to argue the opposite.   First, assume the kind of back McDermott wants.  He's not begging anyone for a first-round running back, because he wants a passing attack and isn't willing to give all those touches to Saquon.  Singletary and Moss are similar in that regard: they're both kind of multi-purpose-good-at-several-things-but-not great-at-any backs.  They're big enough to take the pounding of a #1 back, but they aren't power backs.  They're fast enough, but they aren't breakaway backs.  They can change direction in the hole, a key skill in the NFL, but they aren't really shifty.  They aren't guys who are going to be the premier weapon in the attack.   Where do you find backs like that?   There aren't a lot of them in the league, precisely because they aren't really good at one thing.  Plus, even, say, Duke Johnson, who might fit that bill, well, he's got a lot of years on him, not as a lead back but he's at an age when athletes begin to break down.   So, are you going to invest in the guy knowing he's likely gone in a year or two?  With Singletary and Moss, you've got guys who really know the system.   

 

The point is, I think investing in a third-round running back once every three years may be the best way to find people to carry the running back duties.   The Bills have gotten three nice years out of Motor, and with luck they'll get a fourth.  If he wants to chase big dollars then, great, go for it.  The Bills will stick Moss out there, probably never another guy in that mold, and meanwhile keep focusing the skill players you really want to feature - the receivers and pass catching running back, which is where they put draft capital this year.   

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8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

First, assume the kind of back McDermott wants.  He's not begging anyone for a first-round running back, because he wants a passing attack and isn't willing to give all those touches to Saquon.  Singletary and Moss are similar in that regard: they're both kind of multi-purpose-good-at-several-things-but-not great-at-any backs.  They're big enough to take the pounding of a #1 back, but they aren't power backs.  They're fast enough, but they aren't breakaway backs.  They can change direction in the hole, a key skill in the NFL, but they aren't really shifty.  They aren't guys who are going to be the premier weapon in the attack.

 

In addition to the attributes you listed for Singletary and Moss, they're both considered excellent pass blockers which is obviously very important in the NFL in this day and age and particularly for Josh and this offense.

 

Cook on the other hand might be limited this year due to being a "work in progress" as far as pass pro goes.

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I’ve always felt that Singletary is pretty slippery.  Ranked 7th or 6th last year - see below.

He can drag people too, as shown in a few runs this year.

 

A lot better than he’s ‘ranked’ on tbd.  

Moss, eh.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2022/07/rb-broken-plus-missed-tackles-forced-percentage-analysis-2022-fantasy-football-javonte-williams-elijah-mitchell-ezekiel-elliott/

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-most-elusive-running-backs-2021-season

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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And for all that Akers is a nice player, his team won the Superbowl despite him hardly playing all season and racking up a fantastic 21 yards on 13 carries in the big game. He doesn't move the needle for that Rams team. The only running back picked since this regime has been in Buffalo who has truly moved the needle for his team is Jonathan Taylor and part of the reason he moves the needle because they have been bad at Quarterback. When you are special at Quarterback, like the Bills are, using three day 2 picks looking for that one every half decade needle mover at running back is not the smartest allocation of resources. 

 

Your points have been made by a lot of pundits recently.  My point was I believe the pendulum has swung too far recently.

It is a fact that Day 3 RBs perform at a much lower level than Day 2 picks.  That is a fact.  

 

That being said, I also know that as a whole, Day 1 RB picks are not a good idea and have said the same many times.

 

As to the Bills specifically, Singletary ended up being a good pick IMO.  I didn't think Beane and McDermott going with Moss the following

year was a good idea.  It ended up that 2020 was a bad year for RBs with Jonathan Taylor (2nd rounder) being the only great pick.

Edwards-Helaire and Gibson at the next level.  Neither of which were Day 3 picks.  While Akers was a 2nd rounder who was IR'd during

the Rams SB season, is not proof they would not have been a better team if they had Taylor on the roster.

 

So, I will agree that 2 3rd rounders in a row was not a great idea.  Cook was a 2nd rounder this year and none of us know what his worth to

the Bills will be.  That question will be answered in the next 4 years.  Looking forward to 2023 I think Cook, Moss and a cheap RB3 (maybe

a Blackshear, maybe another) maybe a good, diversified RB room.  Keeping JA from running in non-playoff, end of the game situations,

will be a plus.

 

I'll end by saying paying big money to a year 5 or later RB is a bad, bad move!   Beane hasn't done that, at least.

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27 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Your points have been made by a lot of pundits recently.  My point was I believe the pendulum has swung too far recently.

It is a fact that Day 3 RBs perform at a much lower level than Day 2 picks.  That is a fact.  

 

That being said, I also know that as a whole, Day 1 RB picks are not a good idea and have said the same many times.

 

As to the Bills specifically, Singletary ended up being a good pick IMO.  I didn't think Beane and McDermott going with Moss the following

year was a good idea.  It ended up that 2020 was a bad year for RBs with Jonathan Taylor (2nd rounder) being the only great pick.

Edwards-Helaire and Gibson at the next level.  Neither of which were Day 3 picks.  While Akers was a 2nd rounder who was IR'd during

the Rams SB season, is not proof they would not have been a better team if they had Taylor on the roster.

 

So, I will agree that 2 3rd rounders in a row was not a great idea.  Cook was a 2nd rounder this year and none of us know what his worth to

the Bills will be.  That question will be answered in the next 4 years.  Looking forward to 2023 I think Cook, Moss and a cheap RB3 (maybe

a Blackshear, maybe another) maybe a good, diversified RB room.  Keeping JA from running in non-playoff, end of the game situations,

will be a plus.

 

I'll end by saying paying big money to a year 5 or later RB is a bad, bad move!   Beane hasn't done that, at least.

 

If it had just been Singletary I wouldn't have the same objection. 1 day 2 pick on running backs in 5 drafts is a perfectly reasonable investment. But 3 in 4 years is too many IMO for a team with an ELITE all world Quarterback. If we still had Tyrod Taylor or Fitz then it is a different story. If I was the Colts or the Lions or the Jets might I justify a high day 2 pick on a running back to prop up my less that outstanding passing game? Yep. But for the Bills, the Chiefs, the Chargers etc it is a poor allocation of resources on players that rarely move the needle in the modern NFL. Do day 2 backs out perform day 3 backs in general? Sure. But those teams with elite passing games don't need a bellcow. They don't need a star back. Day 3 guys like Myles Gaskin, Tony Pollard, Michael Carter etc would be perfectly serviceable for their needs. The Moss year was a particularly shallow class though. I remember saying that at the time. I thought there were basically 7 serviceable backs in that whole class and that has kind of been borne out. Moss was the 7th of that group. It just felt like the Bills for some reason had decided they "must have" another running back and forced it a tad. 

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2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:


Many of us were disappointed with the positional value AT THE TIME and were even more disappointed when Beane doubled down the following year.  It is easy to say in retrospect, in a vacuum, well Moss and Singletary are at least competent players while plenty of WRs and DEs picked after them busted out - but if you extrapolate it out over time as a STRATEGY, you will go broke with that type of asset allocation approach.  You cannot use high picks on easily-replaceable assets, especially when the Bills aren’t even trying to focus their offense around an elite running back/game (nor should they).  Even when those picks “hit,” you’re stuck deciding whether to pay them big $$ on a second contract, where much cheaper replacements can be found in FA or the 6th round.  Folks are gonna lose their minds next offseason if they decide to pay Singletary and have to release or pass on more valuable veterans as a result - and that’s precisely the issue.  Was four years of Motor worth the high draft investment?

 

 

That has Nothing to do with my question. 

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Judging rounds 1-4, Beane has been about average for his classes. Bonus points for taking a franchise QB but relatively even on hits/misses.

 

Top tier (hits) - Allen, T. Johnson, Oliver, Knox, Davis

Bust tier (misses) - Phillips, Ford, Epenesa, Moss, Basham

Mid tier (debatable/TBD) - Edmunds, Singletary, Rousseau, Brown

 

I knock him for 2022 - trading up for Elam was questionable, RB in 2nd rd was questionable (bonus points for trading down), and Bernard remains a head-scratcher especially in light of OL needs.

 

For his five drafts I'd go B-/C+.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

In addition to the attributes you listed for Singletary and Moss, they're both considered excellent pass blockers which is obviously very important in the NFL in this day and age and particularly for Josh and this offense.

 

Cook on the other hand might be limited this year due to being a "work in progress" as far as pass pro goes.

I agree about Moss and Singletary blocking.  They're all round backs.  

 

If Cook ever becomes an allround back, he will need to improve in multiple areas.  I think the Bills drafted him to be a weapon, maybe a third down back, but not an all round back. If he becomes more, great.   

 

It's why the Bills may always  find their starting running backs in the third round.  Good, all round backs but not stars. Cook was drafted to be a weapon, like a receiver, and that's why they used a second him.  Another way of saying it is true running backs aren't going to be stars on this team.

 

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4 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

A few thoughts from reading the last few pages:

 

Singletary was a 3rd round pick. He's started 40 of 45 games over 3 seasons. That's good value for the 74th overall pick, especially considering he has one more season on his contract.

 

I don't view James Cook as more than a 8-10 touch a game weapon. As to comparisons with Thurman Thomas and Devin Singletary, Thurman had what looks like a sturdier frame than Cook and had nearly 3300 touches in his career. Singletary whose nickname is "Motor" is 5'7", weighs over 200 lbs and can squat 550 lbs.

 

Cook is both taller and lighter than either Thomas or Singletary and appears to have a slight build.

 

I think Cook can be an excellent weapon for this team but I don't see him as a starter or a workhorse.

Cook will do most of his damage on dump-offs.  I agree his slight build will keep him from being a primary ball carrier, at least this season. 

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2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I get that is what he believes… your missing the point some of us are making… we are saying it is that belief or strategy that is flawed. 
 

3 day 2 picks of RBs in four years is WAY too rich for my blood for a team who’s got Josh Allen as it’s QB. 

 

Maybe Scott but I'm willing to wait 2 more years to the expiration of Singletary and Moss' contracts before I make a final judgement.

 

2 hours ago, Airseven said:

Judging rounds 1-4, Beane has been about average for his classes. Bonus points for taking a franchise QB but relatively even on hits/misses.

 

Top tier (hits) - Allen, T. Johnson, Oliver, Knox, Davis

Bust tier (misses) - Phillips, Ford, Epenesa, Moss, Basham

Mid tier (debatable/TBD) - Edmunds, Singletary, Rousseau, Brown

 

I knock him for 2022 - trading up for Elam was questionable, RB in 2nd rd was questionable (bonus points for trading down), and Bernard remains a head-scratcher especially in light of OL needs.

 

For his five drafts I'd go B-/C+.

 

 

 

You say Beane is "relatively even on hits/misses in rounds 1-4." Please don't take offense but IMO this sort of analysis is meaningless until compared to all other teams. And to be accurate it should be a data-driven study taking into account many values (i.e.- 74rd overall pick started 40 games in 3 seasons, 5th in rushing yards from 2019-2021, etc). So to fairly rank every teams draft, every player in that draft should be graded and then their totals aggregated and then compared to the other teams drafts that year.

 

1 hour ago, Comebackkid said:

What I never understood about Moss was the fact he isn't that much different than singletary size wise.   I think he had 10lbs and 2 inches on him when drafted.   If your going to go with a change of pace bruiser go full bruiser.    

 

I see both sides of it. On one hand if you have an all-purpose back you're not tipping your hand as far as the play call. On the other hand If you can't clone Derrick Henry, it would be really nice having someone like a D'Onta Foreman to use as a sledge hammer.

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5 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

More a question of strategy… No question they have a very good roster, but the high allocation to certain positions over others is where some fans are slightly skeptical.

Same goes for every team in every sport ever.  

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7 hours ago, finn said:

Don't you think he's a bit light for a full-time back? 

Cook will be the featured back at some point.  Prolly not this year.  He has first step and pull away blur speed, cuts like Marshawn, vision like Thurman, and did I mention faster than LeSean?  BTW, he’ll be better than CJ. They will bring him along slowly due to blocking.  By playoffs and SB he’ll be the new wrinkle that opponents can’t solve and will have Bills faithful dancing on Chippewah!!!

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1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

You say Beane is "relatively even on hits/misses in rounds 1-4." Please don't take offense but IMO this sort of analysis is meaningless until compared to all other teams. And to be accurate it should be a data-driven study taking into account many values (i.e.- 74rd overall pick started 40 games in 3 seasons, 5th in rushing yards from 2019-2021, etc). So to fairly rank every teams draft, every player in that draft should be graded and then their totals aggregated and then compared to the other teams drafts that year.

 

That analysis has been done and Beane is solidly top 10 and indeed top 5 by most models. I think the slight knock on him before last season was Allen apart where were his stars but Oliver and Knox breaking out to a degree last year kind somewhat banishes those questions. And on day 3 in particular Beane's record against his peers is exceptional.

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8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:


Many of us were disappointed with the positional value AT THE TIME and were even more disappointed when Beane doubled down the following year.  It is easy to say in retrospect, in a vacuum, well Moss and Singletary are at least competent players while plenty of WRs and DEs picked after them busted out - but if you extrapolate it out over time as a STRATEGY, you will go broke with that type of asset allocation approach.  You cannot use high picks on easily-replaceable assets, especially when the Bills aren’t even trying to focus their offense around an elite running back/game (nor should they).  Even when those picks “hit,” you’re stuck deciding whether to pay them big $$ on a second contract, where much cheaper replacements can be found in FA or the 6th round.  Folks are gonna lose their minds next offseason if they decide to pay Singletary and have to release or pass on more valuable veterans as a result - and that’s precisely the issue.  Was four years of Motor worth the high draft investment?

 

It's a valid question but, for me, a little too granular.

 

We can hyperanalyze Beane's hit and misses but the fundamental truth is that he's built the best roster since Polian was here.  

 

All GMs make mistakes - player evaluation is not an exact science.  But Beane's overall body of work has been strong.

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I like the Cook pick only because I am hoping he becomes a passing weapon for Josh that can get good YAC.  However, I am also in the camp of we spend too many resources on RB.  The running backs on the roster are good enough to keep a defense honest and thats all this offense needs.  I really hope Cook excells as a passing weapon in this offense.  Otherwise, I think it was a terrible pick.

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5 hours ago, The Dean said:

 

 

That has Nothing to do with my question. 


Lol what?  Nothing to do with it?  I have no idea if that particular poster vocally complained AT THE TIME that they passed on Terry McLauren.  I am telling you many of us were vocal about wanting better positional value with Day 1 and 2 picks.  That has EVERYTHING to do with your question.  What are you doing.

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1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:


Lol what?  Nothing to do with it?  I have no idea if that particular poster vocally complained AT THE TIME that they passed on Terry McLauren.  I am telling you many of us were vocal about wanting better positional value with Day 1 and 2 picks.  That has EVERYTHING to do with your question.  What are you doing.

 

 

My question was, and remains, "If I recall correctly he was viewed as a 3rd round pick, by many/most.  Were you vocally upset the Bills didn't pick him AT THE TIME?"  That was my question IN ITS ENTIRETY.  I never even commented on whether I thought picking an RB was a good or bad move. I simply asked a direct question. As you don't know that answer, you did NOTHING to answer the question.  I have no clue how you thought you addressed that.

 

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34 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

 

My question was, and remains, "If I recall correctly he was viewed as a 3rd round pick, by many/most.  Were you vocally upset the Bills didn't pick him AT THE TIME?"  That was my question IN ITS ENTIRETY.  I never even commented on whether I thought picking an RB was a good or bad move. I simply asked a direct question. As you don't know that answer, you did NOTHING to answer the question.  I have no clue how you thought you addressed that.

 


Gotcha - sounds like you should’ve posed your question to him via a DM, instead of on a public message board since it has NOTHING to do with the topic being discussed in this thread, or the price of Gouda in Amsterdam.

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7 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:


Gotcha - sounds like you should’ve posed your question to him via a DM, instead of on a public message board since it has NOTHING to do with the topic being discussed in this thread, or the price of Gouda in Amsterdam.

 

Maybe. But it was a direct question to what he posted. Should he have DM'd the comment? Not quite sure of your point.

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24 minutes ago, ganesh said:

How did a "Bills Cuts" thread morph into a debate on our Running Backs and drafting of them!

 

Welcome to TBD.😂 And be thankful it didn't turn into a Edmunds thread. Or perhaps a Zach Ertz thread.

 

D'Oh!  I just screwed up. :doh:

 

Definitely isn't the first time and probably not the last.

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3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

It’s a message board dude… it’s an opinion(that’s been backed up by evidence from certain teams)  that you don’t need to spend the resources they’ve spent at the position to win… especially the Bills who have an elite QB… I mean look at the Chiefs SB season as an example. They had a washed Lesean McCoy and Damien Williams as their premier backs.

 

I agree on not spending the resources the Bills have but the Chiefs did spend a 3rd on Kareem Hunt in 2017 and a 1st on CEH in 2020

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