Analysis of Bills FA so far (prior to new league year) - Put your links or thoughts here

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

In 4 years, it's happened once so far. Twice if you want to count Wyatt Teller. Personally, I'd prefer to forget that one.

You're right about this.  Oliver may still surprise us, and it's too early to rule out Rousseau, but Beane has found elite only once.  

[billsbackto81]

45 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

You forgot to mention they didn't have a lot of cap room to make moves so you can't blame them for, early as it is, 1st week of UFA.  

 

Or...say that Beane is a wizard.  Come on CT!  

Who do we blame for our current cap situation? These are obstacles all top contenders with talent laden rosters and bloated contracts deal with. Those expecting big name FAs to come here and bypass bigger paydays for a "chance" at a championship are mistaken. 

 

Do you really think Chandler Jones or Christian Kirk would not have come here or Harrison Phillips and Levi Wallace leave if the offers were equal? 

 

Our only real chance to secure a major player is to trade for them and we all know how Beane feels about his draft picks.

 

The Bills will field a competitive team with an elite QB but the majority of their holes will be plugged with attainable competent vets (hopefully upgrades) that won't embarrass themselves or the team.

 

Of course it's JMO....

Edited March 16, 2022 by billsbackto81

[Buffalo03]

Anyone else think it's odd that now the Bills are "claimed" to be a desirable destination for free agents but McKissic leaves and Chandler Jones decides to sign with a team that isn't anywhere close to where we are, it just seems odd. You would think Josh Allen and being a legit super bowl contender would be more intriguing. We seem to only be able to pull the big fish by trade. I wonder what the deal is with all this

[Donuts and Doritos]

We're loosing the off-season.

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Anyone else think it's odd that now the Bills are "claimed" to be a desirable destination for free agents but McKissic leaves and Chandler Jones decides to sign with a team that isn't anywhere close to where we are, it just seems odd. You would think Josh Allen and being a legit super bowl contender would be more intriguing. We seem to only be able to pull the big fish by trade. I wonder what the deal is with all this

 

My guess is that Mckissic decided to go back for more personal reasons and Chandler Jones did what almost all free agents do: went where he could get paid. The truth is, very few free agents go to a team strictly because of the potential to win a championship or because of a certain player.

[GETTOTHE50]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Anyone else think it's odd that now the Bills are "claimed" to be a desirable destination for free agents but McKissic leaves and Chandler Jones decides to sign with a team that isn't anywhere close to where we are, it just seems odd. You would think Josh Allen and being a legit super bowl contender would be more intriguing. We seem to only be able to pull the big fish by trade. I wonder what the deal is with all this

we dont have much cap room. its not often you see players take less to play for contenders.

[galept]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Anyone else think it's odd that now the Bills are "claimed" to be a desirable destination for free agents but McKissic leaves and Chandler Jones decides to sign with a team that isn't anywhere close to where we are, it just seems odd. You would think Josh Allen and being a legit super bowl contender would be more intriguing. We seem to only be able to pull the big fish by trade. I wonder what the deal is with all this

 

Actually going all the way would probably help us in this regard more than most other cities.

[Green Lightning]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

No one follows the team to make the playoffs.  Maybe you are, but most aren't. 

 

 

Oh my, do you ever have a nice day? You're always the little cloud that cried.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Anyone else think it's odd that now the Bills are "claimed" to be a desirable destination for free agents but McKissic leaves and Chandler Jones decides to sign with a team that isn't anywhere close to where we are, it just seems odd. You would think Josh Allen and being a legit super bowl contender would be more intriguing. We seem to only be able to pull the big fish by trade. I wonder what the deal is with all this

Lure of the slots probably

got Jones...I'll just bet ya!

*
That, or Royale with Cheese's constant dissing of Buffalo pizza.

 

[mjt328]

Impossible to make a judgment after (roughly) 48 hours.

We all know that Brandon Beane does not believe in overspending and going crazy in Free Agency. 

The only exception was in 2019, when he had tons of cap space and most of his core players were on rookie contracts.  

 

Now that he's built the foundation of the roster, Bean's strategy is to:

A)  Build primarily through the draft

B)  Re-sign our own core players

In free agency, he tries to find bargains at our biggest need positions.  Not to land the biggest named guys available.  He obviously does his due-diligence with those guys and makes offers.  But if it becomes a bidding war with a bottom-feeder with tons of cap space, you can pretty much forget it.  He simply moves on.  

 

Last year, Beane took a bunch of heat for doing "nothing" in free agency.  Personally, I don't think our struggles were due to a lack of big FA signings.  Maybe the team was more inconsistent week to week, but I would argue that going into the postseason the 2021 Bills had a better shot at winning the Super Bowl than in 2020.  And we are expected to be a Super Bowl favorite again in 2022.

 

Whether Beane's strategy succeeds or fails will depend on his draft picks.  He invested highly in AJ Epenesa, Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham... primarily because he knew they probably wouldn't have the cap space to land a big name.  Let's see how those guys work out.

 

 

 

[RussellDopeland]

After what happened in KC- and with this team so close to winning it all, fans want this team to take the next step, addressing the weaknesses on this roster. To do this, the GM needs to stick his neck out and be aggressive.  Thus far, Beane apparently has decided to take his familiar, measured approach to roster-building. But let's be perfectly honest- this team should have won the Super Bowl...13 seconds of hell prevented that from happening. This has left a bad taste in our mouths as fans. To hear the same old spiel about "the process", or convient excuses about cap constraints, doesn't really carry much weight, not after that playoff debacle. And to top it off, we WNYers are going to have to shoulder the burden of responsibility tax-wise to build ownership a brand-spanking new pleasure palace of a stadium. I think ownership should be cognizant of this. It's time to start being more aggressive, conscientious of but not restrained by the cap, and add those pieces that are needed to finish what should have been achieved last season- winning the god9amn Super Bowl. I'm not seeing that approach at this point (but it's early...we shall see!)

[BullBuchanan]

39 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You're right about this.  Oliver may still surprise us, and it's too early to rule out Rousseau, but Beane has found elite only once.  

The toughest part is I don't blame Beane for his drafts here. Counting on drafting elite players is pretty impossible. How often is the best player in a draft taken #1? once every 10 years or so? And that's arguably the easiest spot because the only one impacting your selection is you. The bust rate for 1rst round players is incredibly high and it only gets worse from there.

The worst part about the draft is when you do actually hit, you often can't afford to keep the player you struck gold on. The best case scenario is that you get a player that outplays his contract for 3 years, and if you have a couple of them doing that, you may be able to make a deep run. By the time year 3 of their deal comes around though, you're either dealing with a big money extension or a holdout.

I would much rather deal those 1rst round picks for proven talent on favorable contracts, go out and spend the money on the players that have proven they can play, and then use the draft to keep your depth chart cost controlled, so you aren't making a guy that sees 40% of your team's snaps the 13th highest cap hit on the team.

Aside from that, I believe it's important to find players who play above their contracts. The Patriots have been doing this for years. David Andrews has made $15M over his 7 years in the league. Over the same 7 years, Mitch Morse has made $38.5M. I would want to retire as a Bill if I were him too.

[ngbills]

I get the whole we almost went to the Super Bowl last year etc. But that seems to have made most forget how much the team struggled last year. Late in the season we needed to beat NE late and were legit close to not even making the playoffs. It was a huge disappointment. We know what happened and then we crushed NE in the playoffs and should have beat KC.

 

I dont know if we can always just bank on we have JA and we can win vs anyone. At some point we need to push a few more chips in to get this team over the top. We are wasting some prime years of JA with a strong defense. Adding another legit weapon on either side of the ball would be huge. As of now we are going into to next year thing:

 

JA at QB - not sure who is back up and hopefully never matters.

RB - Breida gone; No change yet.

WR - Beasley and Sanders gone. Expecting Davis to step up and Mck bigger role? 

TE - No change

OL - Saffold for Williams; Brown better in year two; No depth as of now.

 

IDL - Swapped Jones and Settle for Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

DE - Addison, Hughes, Obada all gone. No replacements yet.

LB - Klein gone, No replacement

DB - Wallace gone; No replacement

 

So these holes are all filled via the draft and lower tier FA's? 

[John Adams]

This below is a good summary. My thoughts.

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

JA at QB - not sure who is back up and hopefully never matters.

 

Right. They will find someone. Not concerned about this. If JA goes down, who cares who the backup is? 

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

RB - Breida gone; No change yet.

 

McKissic was a 3rd down specialist replacing Brieda who never played. There are always RBs to be had in free agency, especially guys at RB2. Not worried about this one either. 

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

WR - Beasley and Sanders gone. Expecting Davis to step up and Mck bigger role? 

 

The will play lil' Dirty more and 100% need another weapon here, not just a body. One of the priority signings or draft picks should come here. 

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

TE - No change

 

And none really needed. If they do add someone, it will be good for 2 TE sets. 

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

OL - Saffold for Williams; Brown better in year two; No depth as of now.

 

When Boettger went down, he was starting. And they tendered Bates. Saffold is an upgrade at guard and saves cap $$.

 

They need more depth and should be able to find it. I bet they add one more swiss army knife guy like Feleciano and then draft someone to bring along at guard in 1-2 years. 

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

 

IDL - Swapped Jones and Settle for Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

 

All upgrades, with no offense to Phillips who late in the year played better. 

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

DE - Addison, Hughes, Obada all gone. No replacements yet.

 

This is the second biggest hole in the roster. Beane needs to get on this in FA because draft prob won't have answers. 

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

LB - Klein gone, No replacement

 

Replacing a backup LB who hardly ever played isn't hard. I wish McD was less stubborn about playing 2 LBs. 

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

DB - Wallace gone; No replacement

 

This is the biggest hole on the team. Tre coming off ACL + no Levi. Bills need to do the work to fill this. I see a CB in the first. (Sorry to Bill in NYC)

 

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

 

So these holes are all filled via the draft and lower tier FA's? 

 

[ngbills]

Snaps we have lost or expect to lose:

 

Wallace - 994 / 92%

Hughes - 558 / 52%

Addison - 482 / 45%

Phillips - 474 / 44%

Butler - 282 / 26%

Klein - 277 / 26%

Obada - 237 / 22%

Zimmer - 161 / 15%

 

Williams - 1172 / 98%

Sanders - 747 / 62%

Beasley - 691 / 58%

Boettger - 636 / 53%

Feliciano - 442 / 47%

 

 

[billsfan89]

7 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

I think they will sign a vet corner AND draft one in the top 2 rounds...

They haven’t invested heavily at corner since drafting Tre in 2017. I think they like Dane and feel they can draft one later to develop. Although I do agree a very corner is likely in the cards maybe not a huge signing but something mid-level.

[John Adams]

1 hour ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

We're loosing the off-season.

 

Teams with cap room who overpay in free agency usually do AWESOME. 

 

I know we were excited by the prospect of Jones but the dude is getting Tre money and his production is not what it used to be. He had 10.5 sacks last year, which is good. 5 came in a single game though.

 

Bills do desperately need a pass rusher but they are against the cap and a lot of teams had a lot more money to burn. 

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

The toughest part is I don't blame Beane for his drafts here. Counting on drafting elite players is pretty impossible. How often is the best player in a draft taken #1? once every 10 years or so? And that's arguably the easiest spot because the only one impacting your selection is you. The bust rate for 1rst round players is incredibly high and it only gets worse from there.

The worst part about the draft is when you do actually hit, you often can't afford to keep the player you struck gold on. The best case scenario is that you get a player that outplays his contract for 3 years, and if you have a couple of them doing that, you may be able to make a deep run. By the time year 3 of their deal comes around though, you're either dealing with a big money extension or a holdout.

I would much rather deal those 1rst round picks for proven talent on favorable contracts, go out and spend the money on the players that have proven they can play, and then use the draft to keep your depth chart cost controlled, so you aren't making a guy that sees 40% of your team's snaps the 13th highest cap hit on the team.

Aside from that, I believe it's important to find players who play above their contracts. The Patriots have been doing this for years. David Andrews has made $15M over his 7 years in the league. Over the same 7 years, Mitch Morse has made $38.5M. I would want to retire as a Bill if I were him too.

But that plan is unlikely.  You aren't going to get good players on favorable contracts, because if they're good and on good contracts, their team doesn't want to trade them.  

 

And David Andrews was an undrafted free agent, the same as a draft pick except even better.   That's exactly the model the Bills are following:  Find rookies and undeveloped young free agents and let them emerge into someone useful.  

 

And by the way, if you draft a player who turns out to be elite, you find a way to pay him when his rookie contract is over.  Like Megatron.  You pay him.  The Rams paid Aaron Donald.   

[BananaB]

Last year Bills added Sanders and expected to win a Super Bowl. Not to thrilled what we got so far this free agency, gotta do more to move forward. Obviously we just can’t rely on Josh after how are last game ended. 

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

But that plan is unlikely.  You aren't going to get good players on favorable contracts, because if they're good and on good contracts, their team doesn't want to trade them.  

 

And David Andrews was an undrafted free agent, the same as a draft pick except even better.   That's exactly the model the Bills are following:  Find rookies and undeveloped young free agents and let them emerge into someone useful.  

 

And by the way, if you draft a player who turns out to be elite, you find a way to pay him when his rookie contract is over.  Like Megatron.  You pay him.  The Rams paid Aaron Donald.   

Diggs was a good player on a favorable contract. I give Beane all the credit in the world for that one. Of course his cap is way up now, but we had an out if he didn't work out.

 

Andrews may have been a UDFA, but he's still making half of what Morse does.

when you pay a guy like Megatron or Donald, does it really matter or not if you drafted them? Maybe they're more willing to pay on a bad team, but if you're giving them market rate, how is it actually helping you?
 

[Pete]

I’m disappointed so far.  I like the DT signings, and we have a upgrade at Guard for a year.

I really wanted to sign Chandler, and minimize draft needs.   
 

We have huge holes at DE and CB!  Premium positions that require either high draft choices or $15 million+
 

it would be nice if we took care DE, we would still need to spend our 1st on CB most likely.

 

Then we could take care of Josh.  It would awesome if we could use 1st and 2nd rounders and build Josh a great OL.  Let’s protect our $150 million star.   We need  RB, WR, TE 

 

but we keep ***** up DE, no matter how many high draft picks and $ spent.   And we still can’t stop 13 seconds.

 

Bills are on precipice of winning SB- but we need a stud DE and CB, and we are creating holes and neglecting solutions

 

 

[Mango]

Specific players aside. I just feel like we keep revolving around the same position groups all the time. 

Like we have spent 5 top 100 picks on the front 4 in recent memory. Spent tons of money on Addison, Murphy, Star etc. trying to work the books to try and fit another DL on a highly paid (last year), highly drafted, under performing DL. 

 

Singletary then Moss. 

Estimates are we whittled next years space from $50M to $15M just to get through this offseason. 

I feel like every offseason is the same, with the same needs, and the same results, but the overall cap situation just creeps closer and closer.

In that sense I do not like this offseason so far, even if I like a player or two. 

[BullBuchanan]

7 minutes ago, Pete said:

Then we could take care of Josh.  It would awesome if we could use 1st and 2nd rounders and build Josh a great OL.  Let’s protect our $150 million star.   We need  RB, WR, TE

We could always use upgrades, but those needs are near the bottom in terms of priority. Any WR we bring in is (best case) fighting for a #3 spot. more than likely they're roll with the top 3 they have and let Hodgins, Stevenson and some day 3 rookies fight it out for #4//5. our #2 TE will probably be some league journeyman, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them prioritize a pass catching back who can return kicks and punts as well. The ST portion is probably the biggest need.

Edited March 16, 2022 by BullBuchanan

[Greatdane21]

would have liked a resign of Harrison Phillips  ,but replacements seem adequate,wish Harry the best high character guy.

Saffold vs Williams is a wash . Definitely need more bodies there.

dissapointed no TE to go with Knox 

I feel they will snag another WR or two

the running back that pulled out of his deal is replacable

i look for one vet cb and a couple in draft 

concerned we can’t find a pass rusher don’t think there is much in the draft

[Milanos Milano]

16 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We could always use upgrades, but those needs are near the bottom in terms of priority. Any WR we bring in is (best case) fighting for a #3 spot. more than likely they're roll with the top 3 they have and let Hodgins, Stevenson and some day 3 rookies fight it out for #4//5. our #2 TE will probably be some league journeyman, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them prioritize a pass catching back who can return kicks and punts as well. The ST portion is probably the biggest need.

 

Kelly had Thurman, and when the Bills were trash they had OJ. It isn’t a coincidence we were super bowl contenders with Kelly/Thurman and others. Those super bowl years was full of top end talent. It’s imperative we get Allen a RB that can just take over games to open up huge throwing lanes for Allen. If we get a star RB, it won’t matter if we drop off in production on defense. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

I'll be honest.  As much as I hate it, we kind of need Beasley to resign.  

[JaBu]

3 hours ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

We're loosing the off-season.

 

Well loosing it is better than losing it!

The sky is not falling and it's early yet, hang loose mi amigo   🤙

[Simon]

My analysis of the Bills activity in FA so far:

 

Holy ******* ****

[boater]

6 hours ago, boater said:

There's a lot of shade being thrown at the former NFL Executive of the Year. And this is after a season most other fans would give their left nut for.

 

Could you imagine the vitriol here if the Bills had a bad season. The fans have become spoiled.

And you douche nozzles thought Beane was sleeping at the switch. How about the Von Miller signing? Is that splashy enough for ya?

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Diggs was a good player on a favorable contract. I give Beane all the credit in the world for that one. Of course his cap is way up now, but we had an out if he didn't work out.

 

Andrews may have been a UDFA, but he's still making half of what Morse does.

when you pay a guy like Megatron or Donald, does it really matter or not if you drafted them? Maybe they're more willing to pay on a bad team, but if you're giving them market rate, how is it actually helping you?
 

I wasn't raising Megatron or Donald to show that you have to draft them.  I was responding to your statement that when you draft stars, you can't afford to pay them when they come off their rookie deals.   If you draft a guy who shows in four years that he's going to the Hall of Fame, you pay him.  

 

And, yes, it does matter whether you draft Megatron or get him in free agency, for several reasons.   First, as I just said, if you have a Megatron or Donald, he's not going to hit free agency.   

 

Second, most of the guys who do make it to free agency may have had some good-looking years, but they are not sure things like the superstars.  Or, they're superstars on their third contract, like JJ Watt.  So, there's risk in the free agent market.   If you pay big time and the guy craps out, it really hurts.  If you draft a sure-fire star and he craps out, he hasn't ruined your cap. 

 

Third, I wrote about this somewhere today.  If you're building for the long term, you're objective is to have the best talent you can have at the lowest price.  Drafting Josh Allen is much better than signing Josh Allen after his fifth year, because over the his career, if you've drafted him, the average cost per year of having him is lower.   It's kind of like buying Apple stock.   Sure, you can buy it today, at full market price, and it's probably going to be a good performer for you.   But some other guy bought it thirty years ago, or even twenty or ten years ago.   Today, both buyers are getting the same good performance out of Apple, but the guy who bought it early, at the lower price, has done better with his money.  

 

There's a lot of good sense built into how McBeane are doing it.   The only real question, I think, is the one that some people raise, which is whether all of this is based too much on averages - it's great to have the best averages over the long term, but averages don't win conference championship games - players do. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

 

Kelly had Thurman, and when the Bills were trash they had OJ. It isn’t a coincidence we were super bowl contenders with Kelly/Thurman and others. Those super bowl years was full of top end talent. It’s imperative we get Allen a RB that can just take over games to open up huge throwing lanes for Allen. If we get a star RB, it won’t matter if we drop off in production on defense. 

The Bills built their Super Bowl team before there was a salary cap.    There's pretty much no way today to have a Hall of Fame quarterback, two Hall of Fame receivers, a Hall of Fame running back, and a Hall of Fame edge rusher on the same team, as Cornelius Bennett, Daryl Talley, Steve Tasker, and a bunch of other really good players.  There's no point in saying the Bills should acquire great talent for Allen like they did for Kelly.   It's no longer possible. 

[Mat68]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The Bills built their Super Bowl team before there was a salary cap.    There's pretty much no way today to have a Hall of Fame quarterback, two Hall of Fame receivers, a Hall of Fame running back, and a Hall of Fame edge rusher on the same team, as Cornelius Bennett, Daryl Talley, Steve Tasker, and a bunch of other really good players.  There's no point in saying the Bills should acquire great talent for Allen like they did for Kelly.   It's no longer possible. 

Still gotta try.  Will it be the same level?  No probably not.  Overall, I like Beanes approach.   Dont over pay for FA.  Make runs at premier players.  Miller even now is a premier player.  Bruce was a productive pass rusher into his late 30’s.  Miller is a gold jacket guy.  They are different humans.  

[Shaw66]

Just now, Mat68 said:

Still gotta try.  Will it be the same level?  No probably not.  Overall, I like Beanes approach.   Dont over pay for FA.  Make runs at premier players.  Miller even now is a premier player.  Bruce was a productive pass rusher into his late 30’s.  Miller is a gold jacket guy.  They are different humans.  

While I was writing what you quoted, I hadn't seen the news about Miller.   Holy *****!  

 

One thing I said a few times in the past few weeks is that Beane always, always does something we don't see coming. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I give him an A so far for this offseason. Great Job McBeane by putting the cherry on top of the sundae with Miller signing.

[Dopey]

BOOM, GOES THE DYNAMITE!!!

[Buddo]

In an odd sort of way, this is 'same old same old' Beane.

 

Holes are being filled, as per usual.

 

DT's who are supposedly better run stoppers than we have, but who also get some push on the pocket.

 

A vet TE #2, who has some pass catching ability, but has also been used previously as a solid blocker.

 

The above are positions we could reasonably expect to fill in FA, but also quite possibly in the draft.

 

There's also a legit vet Guard, whose forte is run blocking.

 

Then we have the icing on the cake, which is a genuine difference maker at DE in Miller.

 

All of the above are areas where many felt we needed to improve.

 

As previously, Beane seems to concur, which is still refreshing to see.

 

Atm I think that McDermott and Beane, believed that our biggest need, was a talent to make a difference on D, and that is why they have got Miller.

 

The reason I say 'same old, same old' Beane, is it's very much, imho, what they did when they traded for Diggs. I think they saw their biggest need at that time, as a genuine #1 WR, and so made the move for Diggs, in much the same way now, that they have made the move to get Miller.

 

I don't know if anything else has happened as I type this, but I'm pretty certain that we will see a vet CB rought in from somewhere, which = another hole filled, at which point it's 'bring on the draft', where we can, in theory, just stay true to our board.

[SydneyBillsFan]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

I very much agree with this analysis.  The Bills are looking smart so far in what they are doing. Scaffold appears to be a huge upgrade. 

 

I agree, he is an imposing figure:

 

 

 

I just hope he doesn't fall apart halfway into the season:

 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

[In Summary]

FA hitting guard and DT so I'm happy. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]