Don't be surprised if Josh Allen has a bumpy 2022

[YoloinOhio]

28 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

Allen was a 4th-and-13 incompletion away from finishing 22-of-30 for 227 yards and two TDs vs Chiefs, with 75 yards coming on a blown coverage on a deep pass. Five of eight drives would have ended with a punt or turnover on downs. Obviously, he completed the pass, deserves all the credit in the world for how the Bills closed in that game, and was largely responsible for making the game so memorable. But there was probably a 1-in-4 chance of converting there—even with Dan Sorensen on the field—and the offseason narrative would be much different. 

[beebe]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah and the world was one wayward sperm away from never having to watch Jackson Mahomes tiktok dances, but here we are.

 

 

Sigh. Clearly I failed with my post and all ensuing attempts to have civil discussion have failed as well. Moving on...cheers! 

[GoBills808]

32 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

Allen was a 4th-and-13 incompletion away from finishing 22-of-30 for 227 yards and two TDs vs Chiefs, with 75 yards coming on a blown coverage on a deep pass. Five of eight drives would have ended with a punt or turnover on downs. Obviously, he completed the pass, deserves all the credit in the world for how the Bills closed in that game, and was largely responsible for making the game so memorable. But there was probably a 1-in-4 chance of converting there—even with Dan Sorensen on the field—and the offseason narrative would be much different. 

Lol wtf is this

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Ross Murdock said:

First, someone should take a crowbar to your keyboard. This post is 6 paragraphs too long, and seem like the ramblings of someone who has too much time on their hands. Coaches had Tom Brady figured out every year for 22 years. Allen has already been dissected like a lab frog. He'll have some bad games because he's human and had an off day. and if the Bills are a complete team and are solidly coached they should survive those instances. The travesty for the Bills is that the Bengals just proved that having a defense that is the 31st lowest paid, and an O-Line that is the 30th lowest paid, both made up with mostly of 5th thru 7 round picks can beat the Chiefs at home in the AFC Championship game, and make it too the Super Bowl. Bills are out of excuses.. This is topic worth 6 paragraphs. Not that Allen is going to be "figured out".. Stop.     

 

The first six sentences, I agree with.  (When I first read this, I thought, "Oh no, not a crowbar, spilt coffee would do".  Then I thought, a crow bar.  A CROW bar, I get it!  Parfait!  Le mot just!)

 

According to Spotrac, for 2021 the Bengals D was 19th for spending and so was their OL.  The OL has me SMH, it could be called "Jonah Williams and the Scraps", and you're right, aside from Williams it's made up of lower-round or undrafted players.

 

The defense is actually not made up of 5th through 7th round picks.  Hubbard and Hendrickson were 3rd round picks and Hendrickson is a beast.  (Wish we would have signed him.)  Pratt was a 3rd round pick.  Awuzie was a 2nd, Apple was a first, Bell and Bates were 2nd round picks.  So yeah, they got maybe 3 of 11 later round picks in there, but especially their 2ndary and their ends were drafted pretty high, and one of their LB.  (Memo to Beane maybe the 2ndary needs more than 1 high pick investment?)

 

None of which factual adjustment should take away from the key point, which is that the Bengals just proved that a defense that is not filled with all-stars, but has talented players that were coached well, played fiercely, and made good halftime adjustments can beat the Chiefs at home in the AFCCG. 

 

But we don't want to take the wrong lesson, and the idea that the Bengals D that "got it done" was mostly composed of guys from the late rounds is not correct. 

[The Wiz]

47 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

Allen was a 4th-and-13 incompletion away from finishing 22-of-30 for 227 yards and two TDs vs Chiefs, with 75 yards coming on a blown coverage on a deep pass. Five of eight drives would have ended with a punt or turnover on downs. Obviously, he completed the pass, deserves all the credit in the world for how the Bills closed in that game, and was largely responsible for making the game so memorable. But there was probably a 1-in-4 chance of converting there—even with Dan Sorensen on the field—and the offseason narrative would be much different. 

It wasn't blown coverage, it was exposed coverage.  Watch Kurt Warner talk about it.  

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Lol wtf is this

 

This is a Chiefs fan who says he doesn't care that his team lost in the AFCCG, "This loss didn’t bother me for some reason"

[Ethan in Cleveland]

OP your main premise makes no sense. JA had a better year in 2020 than he did in 2021. The NFL was not waiting for him to do it again before making adjustments.  They already did. 

Allen and the offense will be fine. He will continue to evolve, run less, and take fewer chances. 

Fix the defense. Fix the coaching.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

We don’t know who our new OC will be. This could go either way. If we hire someone who is worth their salt, our whole offense changes in a positive way and defenses have no tape on Allen in our new offense to prepare for, but if we hire pond scum, Allen may terribly regress and may have a down year. This goes beyond whomever we hire as our OC as well, I hate to point that out, but it applies to what ever vacancies we suffer as well.

 

Fair point.  Aside from injuries, the new OC hire (and any other vacancies) are a wild card for us.

[beebe]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is a Chiefs fan who says he doesn't care that his team lost in the AFCCG

 

I said it didn't bother me, to be clear. It's obviously disappointing. But so disappointing that I'll spend a week dwelling on it? Nope. The Chiefs have essentially been the host city of the AFC title game for four straight years. They'll have more chances. Losses are easy to stomach when the opponent was deserving. The Bengals outplayed them and won despite losing the OT coin toss. Tip your cap and move on.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

41 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

It wasn't blown coverage, it was exposed coverage.  Watch Kurt Warner talk about it.  

 

 

 

I love the part at 3:28 where Warner diagrams an RPO play: "splits two defenders, runs over another, picks up 14 yards on a play that should be dead in the water.  This is where Josh Allen changes the game for the Buffalo Bills. Everything the Chiefs did was right, but even with that, he makes them wrong by picking up a 14 yd play, because he's a Beast".

 

This is the aspect that frustrated Belichick in the Perfect Game and also in the 2nd game which we won - plays where his well-coached defense read the play correctly, knew what to do, and did it - and Josh Allen made it work anyway.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is a Chiefs fan who says he doesn't care that his team lost in the AFCCG, "This loss didn’t bother me for some reason"

Right, because the logical place to make that claim is on another team’s messageboard.

He said the 75 yard TD to Davis was a blown coverage😂😂

[Malazan]

uhh, what teams that played him weren't studying him already? Please provide a specific list. 

[Success]

I'm actually expecting an MVP season, 2 losses tops, the #1 seed in the AFC, and a SB championship.

 

And I think I'm being conservative and realistic.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

I said it didn't bother me, to be clear. It's obviously disappointing. But so disappointing that I'll spend a week dwelling on it? Nope. The Chiefs have essentially been the host city of the AFC title game for four straight years. They'll have more chances. Losses are easy to stomach when the opponent was deserving. The Bengals outplayed them and won despite losing the OT coin toss. Tip your cap and move on.

 

Dude, if your idea of "attempts to have civil discussion" is to come on another team's message board and imply that they shouldn't spend a week dwelling on a loss to your team because "losses are easy to stomach when the opponent was deserving...tip your cap and move on", you really do need to revisit some of your life choices.

 

Preferably the one which started back when you went on a picnic with your Dad and came home with your Mom. 😁

[GoBills808]

This is why nobody likes the Chiefs or their fans

 

the insecurity is palpable

[beebe]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dude, if your idea of "attempts to have civil discussion" is to come on another team's message board and imply that they shouldn't spend a week dwelling on a loss to your team because "losses are easy to stomach when the opponent was deserving...tip your cap and move on", you really do need to revisit some of your life choices.

 

Preferably the one which started back when you went on a picnic with your Dad and came home with your Mom. 😁

 

I think you're reading too deeply into everything here. Respectfully, this is psychotic. 

[AuntieEm]

3 hours ago, billsfanmiamioh said:

This has already been happening for a couple seasons. Not worried 

 

   Yea Josh's play still going up.  He's really becoming an ice cold Mafia hit-man.  Next time with 13 secs left when u kick extra point instead have Josh attempt the 2 point conversion but have him run to the opposite 2 yd line then give himself up.  Don't know if by rule the clock runs off during the 2 pt attempt run to the 2 yd line.  If by rule there's still 13 sec left I like our chances stopping them from a fg try to win from their 2 yd line with 13 secs to go. If you are that afraid of a ST return to hill you do the 2 pt fake attempt to kill game clock for potential comeback.

 

   Just gotta look within rules for way to prevent what you fear or better yet become fearless because you keep making your plays and the other teams are afraid.  

Edited February 1, 2022 by AuntieEm

[The Wiz]

4 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

I think you're reading too deeply into everything here. Respectfully, this is psychotic. 

Brittney and Jackson are the psychotic ones. Actually,  no they aren't. 

 

They are probably in the realm of clinical sociopaths.

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, Joe Ferguson said:

Everyone is overlooking the fact that Josh Allen played against a horrible, horrible secondary of the Chiefs. And they were without two of their starters on defense. I mean come on! I probably could throw that much yardage and touchdowns if I was playing. 

 

Sorry you are not playing Madden with hacked system against a 5 year old.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

I think you're reading too deeply into everything here. Respectfully, this is psychotic. 

 

When I read your OP, I was like "OK, maybe he wants to have a discussion"

 

When I read the part about how it didn't bother you that your team lost, I

 

When I read the part about how we're going to lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs next year, I was like "now that's some trolling"

 

When I read the part about "I said it didn't bother me, to be clear. It's obviously disappointing. But so disappointing that I'll spend a week dwelling on it? Nope. The Chiefs have essentially been the host city of the AFC title game for four straight years. They'll have more chances. Losses are easy to stomach when the opponent was deserving. The Bengals outplayed them and won despite losing the OT coin toss. Tip your cap and move on.", I said:

>>>Now That's Some Trolling<<<

 

Kudos for having the balls to call a moderator "psychotic" for trotting out the Old Chestnut joke about Mom Dad and the Picnic, but the trolling is getting a bit out of hand.  If it's truly unintentional, try to look at where you are and what you're writing from another POV

 

PS you can't "respectfully" tell someone they're psychotic.  That doesn't work.

 

 

23 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

  Yea Josh's play still going up.  He's really becoming an ice cold Mafia hit-man.  Next time with 13 secs left when u kick extra point instead have Josh attempt the 2 point conversion but have him run to the opposite 2 yd line then give himself up.  Don't know if by rule the clock runs off during the 2 pt attempt run to the 2 yd line.  If by rule there's still 13 sec left I like our chances stopping them from a fg try to win from their 2 yd line with 13 secs to go. If you are that afraid of a ST return to hill you do the 2 pt fake attempt to kill game clock for potential comeback.

 

Clock does not run during 2 point conversion, just like it doesn't run during extra point.  Sorry.

[MJS]

I think Allen will be on a mission next year and will take the league by storm. Yes, he'll have some down quarters here and there, but I think he is going to take full command of that offense.

 

I think it will be the best Josh Allen season yet.

 

Does that mean the Bills will win the Superbowl next year? Maybe. Maybe not. It takes so much to get to the Superbowl and win it. But no team has a better shot than the Bills next year. Some may have just as good of a shot, though. The AFC is becoming a monster.

[BringBackFlutie]

3 hours ago, beebe said:

 

He's referring to Mathieu (injury on opening series) and Fenton (key DB for Chiefs). Both were hugely important. Mathieu's absence led to the terrible Dan Sorensen being on the field; and Fenton's injury enabled Mike Hughes to play significant snaps. He got absolutely torched. 

 

Mathieu and Fenton both returned vs Bengals. Sorensen played just 12 snaps, Hughes played just one. 

 

Quite honestly, reading this forum, I would expect nothing less than 5000 yards, 40 TDs and single-digit INTs from Allen in 2022. 🙂

 

Those numbers aren't uncharted territory in this league anymore. I expect that his numbers will approach that, simply because I expect him to adapt faster to what DCs throw at him than he did this past year. His processing should continue to improve.

 

In other words, it really doesn't matter what defense they put out there- you can always get them out of it, if you understand the situation. I expect he'll be better at said understanding next year.

[AuntieEm]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

When I read your OP, I was like "OK, maybe he wants to have a discussion"

 

When I read the part about how it didn't bother you that your team lost, I

 

When I read the part about how we're going to lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs next year, I was like "now that's some trolling"

 

When I read the part about "I said it didn't bother me, to be clear. It's obviously disappointing. But so disappointing that I'll spend a week dwelling on it? Nope. The Chiefs have essentially been the host city of the AFC title game for four straight years. They'll have more chances. Losses are easy to stomach when the opponent was deserving. The Bengals outplayed them and won despite losing the OT coin toss. Tip your cap and move on.", I said:

>>>Now That's Some Trolling<<<

 

Kudos for having the balls to call a moderator "psychotic" for trotting out the Old Chestnut joke about Mom Dad and the Picnic, but the trolling is getting a bit out of hand.  If it's truly unintentional, try to look at where you are and what you're writing from another POV

 

PS you can't "respectfully" tell someone they're psychotic.  That doesn't work.

 

 

 

Clock does not run during 2 point conversion, just like it doesn't run during extra point.  Sorry.

 

  And failed attempt they still kickoff with 13 secs.  Yea think they should have gone for 2 pts and gotten it.  If they fail lose on fg not much different than the ot loss. 

[Draconator]

Is the original poster really Jackson Mahommes? One has to wonder. 

 

Nope. Words are at a high level for Jackson to type. 

 

Has to be Brittney Mahommes. 

 

Maybe they got together and bought a thesaurus? 

 

I mean, miracles can happen...

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

3 hours ago, beebe said:

 

Allen was a 4th-and-13 incompletion away from finishing 22-of-30 for 227 yards and two TDs vs Chiefs, with 75 yards coming on a blown coverage on a deep pass. Five of eight drives would have ended with a punt or turnover on downs. Obviously, he completed the pass, deserves all the credit in the world for how the Bills closed in that game, and was largely responsible for making the game so memorable. But there was probably a 1-in-4 chance of converting there—even with Dan Sorensen on the field—and the offseason narrative would be much different. 

 

 That's a weak argument. You could say that about any player in any game. If he just didn't make that play then.... Like if Harris didn't break that 69 yard run in the wind game we would've beat the Pats***, Billy boy wouldn't have looked like a genius for throwing only 3 times and we would've had home field advantage against the Chiefs. See the narratives changed.

 

 Or if Mahomes didn't have those 13 seconds he wouldn't have gone 8/8 for 113 yards and a TD from that point forward.  What do you think the odds are of tying that game up with 13 seconds to go? I can tell you the previous 62 teams to go down 3 with 13 seconds to go all lost. His stats would've been pretty average also had it not happened, he would've lost the game and the narrative on the 2 QBs and the 2 teams would've changed. The talk would've been the king had been dethroned.

 

 If Josh doesn't slip on 4th diwn against Tennessee we probably would've won, got the 1 seed with a bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I could go on and on with what ifs.

 

 Also the coverage wasn't blown on the 75 yard pass, Josh looked off the safety and Gabe beat him deep when the CB handed Gabe off to him.

 

 

[nucci]

I'll be surprised

[DCofNC]

Teams have been trying to figure out to stop great QBs for years.  The thing is, the great ones adapt.  Look at both Allen and Maholmes this year, the 2 deep shell was killing them early, they figured it out and destroyed teams that tried it until they came out of it.  There’s only so much you can do, especially with the rules all favoring the O.  If JA struggles this year it would be far more likely he has an issue with the new OC.

[CoudyBills]

10 hours ago, billsfanmiamioh said:

This has already been happening for a couple seasons. Not worried 

Exactly.  The thought that Josh is only now going to get defensive coordinators' attention is laughable.

[TH3]

6 hours ago, beebe said:

 

I said it didn't bother me, to be clear. It's obviously disappointing. But so disappointing that I'll spend a week dwelling on it? Nope. The Chiefs have essentially been the host city of the AFC title game for four straight years. They'll have more chances. Losses are easy to stomach when the opponent was deserving. The Bengals outplayed them and won despite losing the OT coin toss. Tip your cap and move on.

thought you left

[thenorthremembers]

It's going to be such a long off season.  

[Mr. WEO]

No.
 

1. Machines was spanking the Bengals in the first half.  A SMART coaching staff made an effective halftime adjustment.

 

2. Teams have had plenty of time to come Iup with a “Mahomes Treatment” for Josh.  Their results are known.

 

 

[JMF2006]

I wouldn't be surprised if he has career bests in all his #'s

 

Why would this regime take a step backwards?

 

With JA17 at QB every OC that needs a job will be applying....they will have so many that they will be turning them away without an interview.

 

The next guy(OC) takes us over the hump to the #1 seed and ultimately the SB  

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

No.
 

1. Machines was spanking the Bengals in the first half.  A SMART coaching staff made an effective halftime adjustment.

 

2. Teams have had plenty of time to come Iup with a “Mahomes Treatment” for Josh.  Their results are known.

 

 

 

The first two years those adjustments worked.

 

The last two years not so much.

[Beast]

So, this thread was really about Mahomes.

Edited February 1, 2022 by Beast

[Greg S]

6 hours ago, MJS said:

I think Allen will be on a mission next year and will take the league by storm. Yes, he'll have some down quarters here and there, but I think he is going to take full command of that offense.

 

I think it will be the best Josh Allen season yet.

 

Does that mean the Bills will win the Superbowl next year? Maybe. Maybe not. It takes so much to get to the Superbowl and win it. But no team has a better shot than the Bills next year. Some may have just as good of a shot, though. The AFC is becoming a monster.

 

The Bills need the #1 seed. I don't think there is a team that is more dependent on the home field and crowd than the Bills. In the McDermott era they are 3-0 at home in the playoffs and 0-4 on the road. Last Bills road playoff win was the 93 AFCCG over Miami. Since then 9 losses in a row on the road. If they get the #1 seed they will go to the Super Bowl. If not then history shows it won't happen. IMHO

[teef]

will someone call me when we start discussing the psychology of having fans in the stands or whether it's bad for the bills to have homefield advantage in the playoffs?  

[nucci]

Don't be surprised if he doesn't

[MPT]

8 hours ago, beebe said:

 

Allen was a 4th-and-13 incompletion away from finishing 22-of-30 for 227 yards and two TDs vs Chiefs, with 75 yards coming on a blown coverage on a deep pass. Five of eight drives would have ended with a punt or turnover on downs. Obviously, he completed the pass, deserves all the credit in the world for how the Bills closed in that game, and was largely responsible for making the game so memorable. But there was probably a 1-in-4 chance of converting there—even with Dan Sorensen on the field—and the offseason narrative would be much different. 

 

You realize the statistical models for the last 13 seconds of regulation had the Chiefs at less than 5% for a victory right? So let's dispense with the shoulda-woulda-couldas.

 

Here's one though: Allen wouldn't have ***** all over himself against the Bengals at home. 

[Greg S]

Just now, teef said:

will someone call me when we start discussing the psychology of having fans in the stands or whether it's bad for the bills to have homefield advantage in the playoffs?  

 

Considering how they suck on the road in the playoffs. I would say lets give the homefield advantage thing a try.

[fergie's ire]

I think there might be some bumps and adjustments, but I think that Josh will adjust quickly.  One of his best assets is his ability to learn.  Young quarterbacks often go through a period of success but then have to adjust.  Some do, some don't.  Baker was great his rookie year, but he still hasn't been able to change once the defense learns how to play him.  On the other hand, do you remember 2 years ago with Josh playing the Patriots? Bellichick went cover zero and Josh couldn't handle it.  Now, teams don't dare to go cover zero on Josh, he'll destroy them.  (Actually, I seem to remember that some team recently tried cover zero and got torched for a touchdown.  Might have been the Patriots.)  So then he couldn't play in weather or struggled against cover 2....but he quickly adjusted and then was great at these.  So, it is very difficult to take something away from him.  He'll quickly learn to make that defense an advantage.

[Johnnycage46]

Chiefs fans lol.  So basically the OP's thought process was as follows:

 

"Man I love my Chiefs...we're going to the Super Bowl as soon as we crush these Bengals"..."wait we just gave up a 21-3 lead and we lost?!?!?!?"...."I am devastated...I know!  I'll go over to the Bills message board and start a thread telling them they shouldn't get their hopes up for next year...that'll make me feel better!"

 

Sad.