dave mcbride Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 (edited) https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/leaders.htm AV is their version of their sister site Baseball Reference's WAR (wins above replacement) and NBA Reference's VORP (value over replacement player). Allen is first at 19 this year. Edited January 14, 2022 by dave mcbride 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Surprising to see Hurts so high considering the Eagles aren't really sold on him. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Surprising to see Hurts so high considering the Eagles aren't really sold on him. Basically the entire Eagles offense ran through him. He led the team in rushing and had 10 rushing TDs. 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not sure how this is calculated. But they have the correct #1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Chaos said: Not sure how this is calculated. But they have the correct #1 It totally makes sense. The Bills have an upper echelon offense and he's almost the entire offense. Literally everything revolves around him. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slippery Rubber Mats Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I fully endorse their methodology which I know nothing about. 1 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Tom Donahoe, GM said: I fully endorse their methodology which I know nothing about. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html and https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index2905.html?p=466 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big C Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Mentioned this in another thread. Cool to see. Interesting that this year his AV actually went up a point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 One of the assumptions is that "the offensive line is exactly as good as the offense." 'Approximate Value' doesn't try to evaluate offensive lines. Long story short, the methodology hurts Allen's rating because he's disadvantaged by a poor OL. Yet Allen still has the highest Approximate Value in the league. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGMcD2 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I saw this yesterday. Thought it was pretty cool. His 19 AV this season is actually higher than his 18 AV last season. I'll have to update my draft grades... it's tied to overall AV per class. Curious to see what it says about Beane's drafting after another seasons worth of results. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 (edited) So pff is good now? Oh sorry, it's pfr. Edited January 14, 2022 by The Wiz 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 (Posted this in the other thread talking about this) "Created by PFR founder Doug Drinen, the Approximate Value (AV) method is an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1950)." This link goes into everything: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html I think it is an interesting metric. I do think it is more valuable when looking at a player's career compared to just individual seasons. Top AV Players in Bills History: 1- Bruce Smith (201) 2- Thurman Thomas (134) 3- Jim Kelly (132) 4- Andre Reed (132) 5- Kent Hull (109) 6- OJ Simpson (107) Josh Allen is currently at 54 which ranks 44th in team history (not sure if it includes this season or not). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/career-av.htm I couldn't find a list of single season leaders in AV for the Bills, but 19 is really good. Bruce Smith only had 1 season higher than that (1996). Jim Kelly never had a season that high. Thurman Thomas has 3 seasons at 19 or better (1990 through 1992), OJ Simpson has 2, including an insane AV of 25 in 1975. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo ill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I need to quit my day job and make a clickbait sports site with stats categories I randomly make up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Special K Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 51 minutes ago, Chaos said: Not sure how this is calculated. But they have the correct #1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not at all surprising 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Not at all surprising This is pretty amazing - Allen finished second (meaning least) after Brady in sack percentage. That is remarkable given the Bills line and the length of time he tends to hold the ball. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm#passing::pass_sacked_perc Edited January 14, 2022 by dave mcbride 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJS said: (Posted this in the other thread talking about this) "Created by PFR founder Doug Drinen, the Approximate Value (AV) method is an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1950)." This link goes into everything: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html I think it is an interesting metric. I do think it is more valuable when looking at a player's career compared to just individual seasons. Top AV Players in Bills History: 1- Bruce Smith (201) 2- Thurman Thomas (134) 3- Jim Kelly (132) 4- Andre Reed (132) 5- Kent Hull (109) 6- OJ Simpson (107) Josh Allen is currently at 54 which ranks 44th in team history (not sure if it includes this season or not). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/career-av.htm I couldn't find a list of single season leaders in AV for the Bills, but 19 is really good. Bruce Smith only had 1 season higher than that (1996). Jim Kelly never had a season that high. Thurman Thomas has 3 seasons at 19 or better (1990 through 1992), OJ Simpson has 2, including an insane AV of 25 in 1975. That has him for 61 games which would be the number of career regular season games in which he has appeared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, Buffalo ill said: I need to quit my day job and make a clickbait sports site with stats categories I randomly make up. Maybe get a PhD in computational science first? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball-Reference.com (Baseball Reference is PFR's sister site and regarded by pretty much everyone as the gold standard for baseball stats.) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: This is pretty amazing - Allen finished second (meaning least) after Brady in sack percentage. That is remarkable given the Bills line and the length of time he tends to hold the ball. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm#passing::pass_sacked_perc Yep. I think the only downside of this is I have seen a fair bit of "oline is fixed" type posting. It really isn't. All that has happened to my eye is Dion is back to being Dion and Josh is continuing to get away without being touched from what for any other QB is a clean sack. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 36 minutes ago, Buffalo ill said: I need to quit my day job and make a clickbait sports site with stats categories I randomly make up. That's really not a good characterization of Pro Football Reference. They are a well-known NFL statistics site which aggregates established statistics. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Thurman Thomas is criminally underrated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hemma Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Stafford has had 4 pick sixes? Yikes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 (edited) Let's just make sure we don't turn Josh into Mike Trout. Surround him with the proper weapons. Edited January 14, 2022 by LABILLBACKER 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WotAGuy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 52 minutes ago, Buffalo ill said: I need to quit my day job and make a clickbait sports site with stats categories I randomly make up. Exactly. Like the stats they are now creating: “First player under the age of 25 having 450 rush yards and 300 passing yards during every odd-numbered game through their first three seasons” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Buffalo ill said: I need to quit my day job and make a clickbait sports site with stats categories I randomly make up. Well, that may be true in general. But PFR is no clickbait newcomer. You can argue with their methodology, but it's solid info. Plus the fact that there's absolutely nothing sexy about the Pro Football Reference site. It is nerd bait if it's any kind of bait. Edited January 14, 2022 by The Frankish Reich 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Big Turk said: Surprising to see Hurts so high considering the Eagles aren't really sold on him. The Eagles weren't sold on him at the beginning of the season, but I think that's changed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Yep. I think the only downside of this is I have seen a fair bit of "oline is fixed" type posting. It really isn't. All that has happened to my eye is Dion is back to being Dion and Josh is continuing to get away without being touched from what for any other QB is a clean sack. Have you really? Where OL not fixed Dion seems to have returned to form, though I don't discount the impact that perhaps Bates works more smoothly with him? Bills seem to be using more gap run concepts that make better use of our OL's strengths Bills also making use of extra OLman more often, and seem to have taken the viewpoint Doyle > Sweeney as a 2nd TE given that Sweeney didn't pull his weight as a receiver OR a blocker. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 hours ago, dave mcbride said: Maybe get a PhD in computational science first? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball-Reference.com (Baseball Reference is PFR's sister site and regarded by pretty much everyone as the gold standard for baseball stats.) Pro Football Reference is my go-to for player and team stats. It's great. I love it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 PFR >>> PFF? What about PFT? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I think the entire difference is Bates at LG which forced Dawkins at LT and returned Brown to RT. Singletary hasn’t been so much better although his strength has been on display, the entire difference is the line play. Singletary and Moss weren’t missing holes before, there weren’t any. Pass protection similar. It’s not good it’s just not jailbreaks every play. Josh avoids the first guy like magic 90% of the time. The resurgence of the run game is not Singletary its Bates, Dawkins, Brown at RT and Williams at RG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Have you really? Where Here. I have had that debate twice this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 14 hours ago, dave mcbride said: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/leaders.htm AV is their version of their sister site Baseball Reference's WAR (wins above replacement) and NBA Reference's VORP (value over replacement player). Allen is first at 19 this year. That’s very interesting and also not that surprising when you think about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I think I visit PFR three or four times a week. Just an amazing database and resource to look up just about anything NFL-related. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 19 hours ago, Tom Donahoe, GM said: I fully endorse their methodology which I know nothing about. Isn’t this pretty much life for all of us…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Question, Is this the mean many poster on this board kept informing us Allen was regressing too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 10:41 AM, Big Turk said: Surprising to see Hurts so high considering the Eagles aren't really sold on him. The Eagles only win against a team with a winning record is against New Orleans. They piled up 5 wins against the Jets, Giants, Washington team twice and the Lions. Then 3 of their wins are against mediocre teams in the Broncos, Falcons and Panthers. Then you have their win against the Saints for their 9th win. So perhaps Hurts beating up against bad teams skews numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 PFR has become my go-to for sports stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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