Harrison Philips: how important is it for the Bills to re-sign him?

[HOUSE]

A new contract and a NFL approved helmet

 

[JMF2006]

Of course the new "Meatball" gets a new contract.

 

He needs an affectionate nickname though

 

Maybe we can call him "Hamburger Helper" ? 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Thankfully we should finally be rid of Vernon Butler and probably Star as well...I'd offer something like 3 years/18 million to Harrison Phillips. Has had a huge second half of the season for this defense (likely because he is finally fully recovered from that ACL tear) and made Star rather obsolete. Also a significant leader for this team and community.

[Maynard]

Gotta get him signed. As others have said, I think he’s finally getting healthy. Besides he won’t break the bank and I’m pretty certain he’d take a bit less to stay in Buffalo. 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There are lots of cuttable players though. Beasley, Felciano, Klein and possibly Star. 

 

Feliciano and Star have lost their starting jobs, Beas is clinging to his by a thread and Klein is the sort of luxury vet backup you have to cut loose as you pay your own guys.

 

Then extend Stef, reduce his hit, extend Tremaine and bring down the tag number and the Bills are still in pretty good cap shape. They can do whatever they want to do this offseason.

 

Cutting Feliciano, Star, Beasley and Klein wouldn't save us that much at all. (And IMO we're not cutting Klein.) Leaving Klein out, we'd save around $10M - $11M.

 

And then you have to replace them with other players, which will cost money.

 

Extending Edmunds and Diggs could save some more, but Beane has made it clear that while he'll kick a few cans down the road, he's not going to kick all of them.

 

Then you have to throw in the dead money that will come from Sanders (unless you keep him and pay him more), the cost of replacing or re-signing Hughes, Levi Wallace, Obada, Harrison Phillips, Breida, Ryan Bates, McKenzie, Siran Neal, etc.

 

They absolutely can NOT "do whatever they want." They'll get through, and they won't need to leave massive holes or anything. But they are going to be significantly limited.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Cutting Feliciano, Star, Beasley and Klein wouldn't save us that much at all. (And IMO we're not cutting Klein.) Leaving Klein out, we'd save around $10M - $11M.

 

And then you have to replace them with other players, which will cost money.

 

Extending Edmunds and Diggs could save some more, but Beane has made it clear that while he'll kick a few cans down the road, he's not going to kick all of them.

 

Then you have to throw in the dead money that will come from Sanders (unless you keep him and pay him more), the cost of replacing or re-signing Hughes, Levi Wallace, Obada, Harrison Phillips, Breida, Ryan Bates, Siran Neal, etc.

 

They absolutely can NOT "do whatever they want." They'll get through, and they won't need to leave massive holes or anything. But they are going to be significantly limited.

 

 

 

Klein will be gone unless he takes a Mario Addison esque pay cut. Extending Edmunds isn't a can kick move it is a retaining your own talent move (one that a lot of fans won't like but one I am ever more convinced the Bills will make). The only thing you could describe as a can kick is Diggs and even that... really this is the natural year to talk to Diggs about an extension anyway based on how the existing deal is structured. The dead money for Sanders is already counted. 

I think all those moves can get them to $25-30m in space. You need about $8-9m for draft picks and contingency. Yes they have a few decisions to make on Levi, Isaiah, Harrison, Siran and Bates (Bates is an RFA so under team control). They also have a decision to make on whether to try and extend Dawson Knox early. But there is lots of ways to make all of those things happen if they so wish to. 

 

Remember the Chiefs went into 2021 with less than $1m in space and signed the top offensive linemen on the FA market, traded for another starting OL and signed an expensive defensive tackle in FA too. 

 

The Bills can still make any move they want to this offseason without needing to really weaken what they have in order to do it. They can't make every move they might want to make in an ideal world but nor can anyone. The Bills have room to re-sign the five guys I listed above, and extend Dawson Knox and still bring a couple of difference makers in through free agency if they want to. I doubt they do bring all 5 of those guys back but if they wanted to the space is there. As ever it is just decisions over what to prioritise. 

[davefan66]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills have the advantage of rich owners willing to spend, which enables them to give people FA deals that look like 4 years but are actually two, give them a load of cash up front, build yourself flexibility to get out of deals after a couple of years. Brandon Beane and co have already used that asset to good effect and I expect them to continue to do so. I don't buy that the Bills have to make a big strategic decision between win now and or sustained success. They will at some point, I just don't think they are close to that yet. 

My concern would be they took a small step back this year in their record and I hope they don’t try and “buy” a championship.  I don’t think they are but a few players from having a great roster.  That’s a couple of starters and backups.  Defensive middle being one needing both a starter and backup.

 

Need to start by keeping Harry.

[TheFunPolice]

you can always work the salary cap...

 

Saints always have like -$75 million in space and still sign people and hand out insane contract extensions like the one for Hill 

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Klein will be gone unless he takes a Mario Addison esque pay cut. Extending Edmunds isn't a can kick move it is a retaining your own talent move (one that a lot of fans won't like but one I am ever more convinced the Bills will make). The only thing you could describe as a can kick is Diggs and even that... really this is the natural year to talk to Diggs about an extension anyway based on how the existing deal is structured. The dead money for Sanders is already counted. 

I think all those moves can get them to $25-30m in space. You need about $8-9m for draft picks and contingency. Yes they have a few decisions to make on Levi, Isaiah, Harrison, Siran and Bates (Bates is an RFA so under team control). They also have a decision to make on whether to try and extend Dawson Knox early. But there is lots of ways to make all of those things happen if they so wish to. 

 

Remember the Chiefs went into 2021 with less than $1m in space and signed the top offensive linemen on the FA market, traded for another starting OL and signed an expensive defensive tackle in FA too. 

 

The Bills can still make any move they want to this offseason without needing to really weaken what they have in order to do it. They can't make every move they might want to make in an ideal world but nor can anyone. The Bills have room to re-sign the five guys I listed above, and extend Dawson Knox and still bring a couple of difference makers in through free agency if they want to. I doubt they do bring all 5 of those guys back but if they wanted to the space is there. As ever it is just decisions over what to prioritise. 

Agree with all of this but at the same time I agree with @Thurman#1 that I wouldn't call this situation "they can do whatever they want". I do agree they can sign almost whoever they want but if it is really a big name then it might the only bigger FA signature.

 

Doing what you mention gets them over $30m in space but with only 35 players signed, so you need 18 more. Even if lets say 15 of them are rookies and cheap players up to $2m hits these guys still take $18-20m, and you don't have much room left. I also guess they will want to keep Wallace and Phillips and I don't think Beane will be able to sign Wallace for less than §4m cap hit first year. We also need backup QB who might be more expensive than Mitch this year (or otherwise he may really suck, which I don't prefer). This is very far from "they can do whatever they want" in my book.

 

But they can sign big name or two, thats for sure. But bolded is really maximum what they can do (provided that "couple" means literally two) and it will not be easy imo. 

[st pete gogolak]

What dead money with Sanders?  Isn't he a UFA at the end of the season?

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

What dead money with Sanders?  Isn't he a UFA at the end of the season?

 

Yes but there is a second already voided year with a small amount of guaranteed money to allow them to keep the hit this year down. 

[ColoradoBills]

Resign him but I guess I think that would cost about $4M-$4.5M per year.  Maybe that is too low?

[FilthyBeast]

Phillips has been a good story this year but if push comes to shove and we have the chance to sign a more proven veteran DT vs keep Phillips for the same type of money I really hope this team does the smart thing and looks elsewhere or they are setting themselves up for the same type of crap again.

[GunnerBill]

On 1/4/2022 at 6:30 PM, No_Matter_What said:

Agree with all of this but at the same time I agree with @Thurman#1 that I wouldn't call this situation "they can do whatever they want". I do agree they can sign almost whoever they want but if it is really a big name then it might the only bigger FA signature.

 

Doing what you mention gets them over $30m in space but with only 35 players signed, so you need 18 more. Even if lets say 15 of them are rookies and cheap players up to $2m hits these guys still take $18-20m, and you don't have much room left. I also guess they will want to keep Wallace and Phillips and I don't think Beane will be able to sign Wallace for less than §4m cap hit first year. We also need backup QB who might be more expensive than Mitch this year (or otherwise he may really suck, which I don't prefer). This is very far from "they can do whatever they want" in my book.

 

But they can sign big name or two, thats for sure. But bolded is really maximum what they can do (provided that "couple" means literally two) and it will not be easy imo. 

 

Yes. I think maybe my "whatever they want" was interpreted as meaning "everything they want" which wasn't what I meant. I meant there is no single move that isn't open to the Bills. They can bring all their guys back if they want to, they can be players in free agency if they want to, they can trade for established vets and cover the salary if they want to. They can't do all of that. But they have the flexibility to pursue whichever strategy they like to improve this team. 

[GunnerBill]

On 1/4/2022 at 8:19 PM, ColoradoBills said:

Resign him but I guess I think that would cost about $4M-$4.5M per year.  Maybe that is too low?

 

I've just had a go at some numbers for where I'd pitch an offer to Phillips and I ended up exactly there. Three years, $13.5m, $4.5m AAV.

 

Basically structured as so:

 

Signing bonus of $5.5m paid day 1 but amortised for cap purposes. Then a guaranteed base salary of $900k year 1. That means if the Bills cut him after 1 year they would be on the hook for $3.6m of dead money (the two remaining years of his signing bonus) and Harrison would essentially have taken a 1 year $6.4m deal. Then I'd build in an option after year 1 which if the Bills pick up and keep him would guarantee another $3m split across the two remaining years of the deal. His base salary would jump to $1.5m in year 2 and $2.7m in year 3. So:

 

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3
Cap Hit	$2.7m	$4.8m	$6m
Dead money if cut after season	$3.6m	$3.3m	UFA

 

Something like that would be hard for Harrison and his reps to turn down IMO and it is a good deal for the Bills that essentially gets him at a good price if the last month is for real but doesn't handcuff them too bad if it isn't. 

[GunnerBill]

On 1/4/2022 at 5:06 PM, TheFunPolice said:

you can always work the salary cap...

 

Saints always have like -$75 million in space and still sign people and hand out insane contract extensions like the one for Hill 

 

Yep. Because the salary cap is not a cap on what you spend. It is an accounting cap. 

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I've just had a go at some numbers for where I'd pitch an offer to Phillips and I ended up exactly there. Three years, $13.5m, $4.5m AAV.

 

Basically structured as so:

 

Signing bonus of $5.5m paid day 1 but amortised for cap purposes. Then a guaranteed base salary of $900k year 1. That means if the Bills cut him after 1 year they would be on the hook for $3.6m of dead money (the two remaining years of his signing bonus) and Harrison would essentially have taken a 1 year $6.4m deal. Then I'd build in an option after year 1 which if the Bills pick up and keep him would guarantee another $3m split across the two remaining years of the deal. His base salary would jump to $1.5m in year 2 and $2.7m in year 3. So:

 

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3
Cap Hit	$2.7m	$4.8m	$6m
Dead money if cut after season	$3.6m	$3.3m	UFA

 

Something like that would be hard for Harrison and his reps to turn down IMO and it is a good deal for the Bills that essentially gets him at a good price if the last month is for real but doesn't handcuff them too bad if it isn't. 

 

Well done.  Thanks for the effort!

[GreggTX]

He's on an upward trend. I say sign him now and save $$$.

[BarleyNY]

On 1/2/2022 at 7:48 PM, 97bills said:

I would love to keep him but look to upgrade if possible. Let’s not fool our selfs this Dline was terrible all year and he was a big part of that. 

That’s fair.  Always about value as well.  Bills aren’t going to have a lot of cap space to throw around either.  I’d like to retain him, but I would not blame him for chasing the money.

It’s worth noting that the only two DTs currently under contract for next season are Oliver and Star. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by BarleyNY

[Pete]

We must really-sign Harrison and Levi.  That should be our first priority, along with fortifying offensive line 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 1/3/2022 at 8:48 PM, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

He'd be long gone by 32...

 

That Is true 👍👍

 

 

[Warcodered]

 

[Southern_Bills]

Phillips is this years Milano, have to get it done.

 

Wallace idk, he plays well in the Bills system but you can probably get that level of play for cheaper than 9M/Yr. Or whatever they project him at.

[Simon Says]

On 1/2/2022 at 7:31 PM, Simon said:

I'm right with you.

With Star and Butler certainly on the way out the door, Harry is a must-keep so they can devote their available resources to the OLine.

Its not a certainty that Star will be gone 

[JaCrispy]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:30 AM, Pete said:

We must really-sign Harrison and Levi.  That should be our first priority, along with fortifying offensive line 

No to Wallace...yes to everything else you said...👍

[Nitro]

Harrison is hitting his stride and in his prime.  Resign him.   The trouble with not keeping your FA, ones that are productive, is that you will have to spend draft picks or sign a FA (at a more friendly contract).  Neither guarantee the team will be better.  Only way you let a UFA walk is if you have their replacement on the team and they are ready to step up.  Not the case with the Bills.  

[LABILLBACKER]

I like Harry but I wouldn't do anything heroic on a long term deal.  Don't know what kinda money Harry will expect?  He's kinda between a 1T and a 3T. Will he ever reach a level Kyle did? Or do we just draft Davis and call it a day? Lotta questions involving Harry?

[Pete]

3 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

No to Wallace...yes to everything else you said...👍

I can see Beane using his wizardly, letting Wallace get his payday elsewhere.  We then draft CB2 with our 1st.  The plan is the CB2 is more athletic and an upgrade, and 4 year starting CB on rookie contract.  That frees $ to sign OL and/or Chandler Jones.  Then load up on offense with the rest of the picks

[Robert Paulson]

very

[YoloinOhio]

10 minutes ago, Pete said:

I can see Beane using his wizardly, letting Wallace get his payday elsewhere.  We then draft CB2 with our 1st.  The plan is the CB2 is more athletic and an upgrade, and 4 year starting CB on rookie contract.  That frees $ to sign OL and/or Chandler Jones.  Then load up on offense with the rest of the picks

It almost has to be the plan because they need to get more athletic AND cheaper at CB2. They are paying the rest of the secondary - White, Taron J, Hyde, Poyer. They need at least one on a rookie deal. And one could argue Hyde and Poyer are still underpaid. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by YoloinOhio

[BeastMode54]

I'm getting a little concerned about Harrison testing FA. I really want to bring him back. He played extremely well, and we finally got to see the best of Ed Oliver

[Greatdane21]

he played very well the second half of the year. Harry has earned a decent contract so he doesn’t have to do the tacky west-herr commercial any more. He has overcome a couple of injuries hopefully he isn’t one of those guys who never reaches full potential because of injuries. I’d take a chance

[Mango]

On 3/1/2022 at 6:45 PM, Nitro said:

Harrison is hitting his stride and in his prime.  Resign him.   The trouble with not keeping your FA, ones that are productive, is that you will have to spend draft picks or sign a FA (at a more friendly contract).  Neither guarantee the team will be better.  Only way you let a UFA walk is if you have their replacement on the team and they are ready to step up.  Not the case with the Bills.  

 

It is almost as if drafting Singletary then Moss, and AJE, then Groot and Basham have rippling effects through the roster....

[MrEpsYtown]

Phillips played well for about 6 games in 4 years. So you let him test free agency to see what his value is. It's a weird case and you have to be careful not overpay the guy and misread the market. Justin Zimmer played just as well, if not better when he was healthy for league minimum. 

 

17 minutes ago, Greatdane21 said:

he played very well the second half of the year. Harry has earned a decent contract so he doesn’t have to do the tacky west-herr commercial any more. He has overcome a couple of injuries hopefully he isn’t one of those guys who never reaches full potential because of injuries. I’d take a chance

 

A long term commitment is different than taking a chance. That's the issue. What is his market? You can't overpay for the limited production. Sure it seems like he is hitting his stride, but you can't take that chance with a tight cap. That type of risk may hinder you from singing guys like Dawson Knox etc in the future. 

Edited March 10, 2022 by MrEpsYtown

[Mango]

On 3/1/2022 at 7:24 PM, YoloinOhio said:

It almost has to be the plan because they need to get more athletic AND cheaper at CB2. They are paying the rest of the secondary - White, Taron J, Hyde, Poyer. They need at least one on a rookie deal. And one could argue Hyde and Poyer are still underpaid. 

I tend to agree. With a looming Poyer extension it’s only going to get more expensive.

 

I wouldn’t be shocked if some combination of our first three picks the Bills go DL and CB. 

 

[Don Otreply]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Phillips played well for about 6 games in 4 years. So you let him test free agency to see what his value is. It's a weird case and you have to be careful not overpay the guy and misread the market. Justin Zimmer played just as well, if not better when he was healthy for league minimum. 

It’s not so easy to get quality play at league minimum wages over extended periods of time, but Beane has done well there, one can include Levi Wallace in the low pay good performance category as well.   I will reserve judgment until after the draft before I make any claims about Beanes acumen in player acquisitions.  Most fans should do the same, as they certainly aren’t talented enough to compete for his job…, 

[Thurman#1]

41 minutes ago, Greatdane21 said:

he played very well the second half of the year. Harry has earned a decent contract so he doesn’t have to do the tacky west-herr commercial any more. He has overcome a couple of injuries hopefully he isn’t one of those guys who never reaches full potential because of injuries. I’d take a chance

 

 

I'd love to get him back. 

 

Saw an estimate recently he will get a contract for somewhere near $24M for three years.

 

That's pretty close to the threshold for me. The price they have to pay might have a lot to do with whether we get him back. I would guess they want him pretty bad, but there will be some limit in Beane's mind.

 

29 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Phillips played well for about 6 games in 4 years. So you let him test free agency to see what his value is. It's a weird case and you have to be careful not overpay the guy and misread the market. Justin Zimmer played just as well, if not better when he was healthy for league minimum. 

 

 

A long term commitment is different than taking a chance. That's the issue. What is his market? You can't overpay for the limited production. Sure it seems like he is hitting his stride, but you can't take that chance with a tight cap. That type of risk may hinder you from singing guys like Dawson Knox etc in the future. 

 

 

Zimmer played well, but not as well as Harry did for half a year before his injury and after he finally got over the injury around halfway through last season.

 

Both are FAs. Pretty sure the contracts each gets will show that the league agrees with me on that.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

19 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

It’s not so easy to get quality play at league minimum wages over extended periods of time, but Beane has done well there, one can include Levi Wallace in the low pay good performance category as well.   I will reserve judgment until after the draft before I make any claims about Beanes acumen in player acquisitions.  Most fans should do the same, as they certainly aren’t talented enough to compete for his job…, 

 

 

Putting together a top five roster two years in a row already says an awful lot about Beane's acumen in player acquisitions, I think. Nobody's perfect, but he's damn good.

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Putting together a top five roster two years in a row already says an awful lot about Beane's acumen in player acquisitions, I think. Nobody's perfect, but he's damn good.

 

This has certainly been a good team, but I would vehemently disagree about this being a top 5 roster especially looking at the lack of game changing talent on the defensive side of the ball.

 

But this is why this offseason is so critical because Beane can make this roster much better if he does swing big on the defensive side and adds at least one proven game changer in the form of a pass rusher.

 

[Thurman#1]

On 1/5/2022 at 2:06 AM, TheFunPolice said:

you can always work the salary cap...

 

Saints always have like -$75 million in space and still sign people and hand out insane contract extensions like the one for Hill 

 

 

The Saints continuous botching of their cap resulted in them having a year after year top three QB and a top five coach and only managing one title out of it.

 

Yes, you CAN always work the salary cap. But it absolutely tends to mean you kick more and more cans down the road and you end up bringing in some guys but at the cost of being forced to make some moves and not being able to make others that you otherwise could have managed.

 

Yeah, I could absolutely get myself a new Ferrari, if I put it on the credit cards. I could. Doesn't mean it would be a smart move.