machine gun kelly Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 (edited) Answer to the question from OP is yes. I know people are frustrated from loss, but the team’s in contention all have tougher schedules than us. KC has a good shot at beating TN this week. Baltimore also has a bunch of tough games ahead. Even Cincy is 4-2 right now and wouldn’t count them out. By the time we get back from the bye, it could be Baltimore 5-2, KC 4-3, TN 4-3, the Bolts are on a bye like is but 4-2. We could definitely benefit from the Pats beating the Bolts next week. I’m not worried about the Raiders 4-2. I don’t see in any works is not beating the Fish, nor the Jags and Jets for that matter. That means we are 7-2 and most likely very much in the hunt for the #1 seed. Just like you’re boss says don’t email anyone when angry as you almost always have to walk it back, nor a loved one as you always make an ass of yourself, don’t post after a tough loss and make a big claim. This whole we are playing a soft schedule is crap. Why? Because we don’t choose our schedule. Just like last year we had the AFC/NFC West, this year we have the South. I’ll take the wins. You guys love bold predictions. Mine is we walk into Tampa Bay (my home and I’ll have my MGK jersey on at the game) 10-2. The Bucs may have the same record, but probably not. Their only two competitive games are the Colts and Saints. The Saints always play them tough. That would be my guess of a possible loss as it’s on Halloween in NO. We’ll see as the Saints are running great and the Bucs have a great running defense. 10-2 vs. 10-2 to 11-1. This will be a hype game like the Chiefs. I hope there are at least 25,000 Bills fans there as we are a 1-3 ratio in the noise factor in that stadium. Go Bills! Edited October 22, 2021 by machine gun kelly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 17 hours ago, BobBelcher said: but how much of that is just the result of the top seed simply being a much better team than everyone else in their conference? I can say from the AFC, KC was easily the best team in the past 2-3 seasons already, and they would’ve made the super bowl even with an extra game IMO From 1993-2009, no SB featured the 2 top seeds from AFC/NFC. So not every SB features "the best team in the Conference". Ask the Packers. From 2015-2019, all 10 home teams won their conference championship games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said: I agree with this to a certain degree, but again was it being outmatched as much as the historical statistics say otherwise? I will say that I firmly believe we would have beat the Texans though had we played in at home in the playoffs a few years ago considering we should have won that game in Houston. KC won in Buffalo last year so that outcome probably would have been the same albeit closer just like the game in Buffalo was earlier in the season, and the 2017 team was pretty much a fluke and only 4-4 at home that season anyway so also don't believe it would have mattered against the Jaguars who went on to the almost beat the Patriots in the AFCCG. But again, the bigger reason the #1 seed matters now is that you only need to win 2 playoff games (which the Bills did last year) to punch your ticket to the SB. Yeah I agree it helps. I just think of a team like Baltimore in 2019 who ran roughshod over just about the entire league and blew almost all of their opponents out of the water sans SF and Buffalo. Tennesee came into Baltimore, fresh off a big upset in NE, and beat the crap out them. So while a first round bye important, I think it’s not as much of a sure thing as some fans would like to believe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 16 hours ago, Rigotz said: I think it's so important that we need a second thread about it when there's a 5 page thread about it immediately below this one. No that just makes this the green light for a third thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 is this even a question? Obviously you dont have to be a one seed, but if you have the chance it is a huge advantage. Just because there non 1 seeds that have made it means nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
First Round Bust Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 would we have won last years close games with Indy and Balt ? there was little-partial crowd noise but the home field elements did have a contribution...Indy blew some make-able kicks and the small but vocal crowd noise helped when the Ravens were driving...last year is just that, but this year has full-throttle crowd noise, lets get it ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 (edited) Look at the Bills playoff record all time home vs away. This team just doesn’t win road playoff games….and at home? I won’t jinx that Edited October 21, 2021 by Brianmoorman4jesus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: Look at the Bills playoff record all time home vs away. This team just doesn’t win road playoff games….and at home? I won’t jinx that Another valid point, if you go back to the 90's during the glory years they had one home playoff loss (1996 against the Jags and also Kim Kelly's last game) During the 4 straight SB's years they had home field throughout in 3 of those 4 years, the only exception was 1992 when Kelly got hurt (won that famous comeback game against the Houston Oilers, then on the road against the Steelers and Dolphins). The previous 2 seasons in 1988 and 1989 they also lost on the road in the playoffs including another AFCCG appearance in CIN in 88. Also lost on the road in the payoffs in 1998 and 1999 with the Doug Flutie led teams including the infamous homerun throwback game against the Titans when Rob Johnson was the starter. Bottom line, no matter what anybody says home field in the playoffs matter especially given this teams history and not winning a road playoff game in nearly 30 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corta765 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Having the #1 seed guarantees just two games needed to make the SB and you are home for both. At least one of the #1 seeds has made the SB 4 of the last 5 years with the only year not being the 2018-19 season when both #2 seeds NE and LAR beat the #1 seeds at home (mind you NOLA should've went thanks officials). The year prior to that in 2017-18 both #1 seeds made the SB (NE and PHI). So you when it basically has been a 50% average of a #1 seed making it in I would say its a big deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 The Bills play good football on the road so I wouldn't be that concerned if they are #2. I'd rather be #1 but think they can fulfill all their goals being #2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, JohnNord said: Yeah I agree it helps. I just think of a team like Baltimore in 2019 who ran roughshod over just about the entire league and blew almost all of their opponents out of the water sans SF and Buffalo. Tennesee came into Baltimore, fresh off a big upset in NE, and beat the crap out them. So while a first round bye important, I think it’s not as much of a sure thing as some fans would like to believe That was a very strange game and a bit more complicated than this characterization. Baltimore had 29 first downs to TN's 15 and outyarded TN 530-300. Those are huge disparities. They lost because of turnovers, basically, but they dominated between the 20s. Baltimore was also 0-4 on fourth down. Edited October 21, 2021 by dave mcbride 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 It's not the ONLY path to the Super Bowl, but if you can get that #1 seed, it is by far the preferred path! A Super Bowl is BY FAR the easiest championship to win in N. American sports....especially if you are the No. 1 seed! You get the first week off, play all games at home, and with 2 measly wins in a row, you are in the big dance! In contrast, winning a Stanley Cup is nearly impossible! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 yes it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 4 hours ago, dave mcbride said: That was a very strange game and a bit more complicated than this characterization. Baltimore had 29 first downs to TN's 15 and outyarded TN 530-300. Those are huge disparities. They lost because of turnovers, basically, but they dominated between the 20s. Baltimore was also 0-4 on fourth down. Ok…how about TB winning all three games on the road last season before winning the Super Bowl. As someone else said, home field is probably the easiest path to the SB but not the only only one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 7 hours ago, SCBills said: This question has to be a coping mechanism for the loss to Tennessee. The #1 seed is INCREDIBLY important. Guaranteed to move past WC Weekend, and then play two games - both at home - to get to the Super Bowl. We still have a great shot at the #1, no need to try to pretend this isn't a massive deal. This. There's a segment of the fan base that can talk themselves into any outcome being beneficial somehow i.e. this loss might be a "blessing." We've already had 2 "blessings" in the first 6 weeks I can do without any more. Everyone that was around in the early 90's would laugh at this notion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Teams can get to the Super Bowl without it but you can't say having the #1 seed isn't a huge advantage. - extra week to rest players and scheme up the next game - only need to play two games to get to the show - said two games are at home Those advantages are pretty big. The season is still long. Winning the Titans game would have been pretty big in getting that #1 seed but losing it doesn't mean the Bills won't get it. The schedule is mostly down hill from here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 (edited) 13 hours ago, JohnNord said: Ok…how about TB winning all three games on the road last season before winning the Super Bowl. As someone else said, home field is probably the easiest path to the SB but not the only only one Oh sure, it can definitely happen. But there’s a reason the Bills went to a bunch of SBs in the early 1990s. Home field advantage was a real thing. They did beat Miami and Pitt on the road in the 1992-1993 season, but every other game in that run was a home game. They beat a very talented Raiders team in 1993 mostly because Kelly was good in the cold and the temperature was like -8 degrees. If that game had been in Oakland, I think the Bills would have lost. The Raiders mostly matched up well vs. the Bills in those years outside of the 1990 championship game. Anyway, you want home field advantage. Edited October 22, 2021 by dave mcbride Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 The last team playing 3 road games as a WC and winning the Super Bowl was the Giants with Manning. That usually doesn't happen. Getting the #1 seed would be huge for the Bills. I think it will come down to the Bills and Ravens as to who gets it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearNorth Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Through week 6, Away teams have won 50 games, Home teams 42. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, BearNorth said: Through week 6, Away teams have won 50 games, Home teams 42. Talking about playoffs totally different atmosphere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Since we're cherry-picking stats, we were 4-2 last year and finished 13-3 going to the AFC championship game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 58 minutes ago, BearNorth said: Through week 6, Away teams have won 50 games, Home teams 42. …and this is supposed to mean the #1 seed is not important? Holy cow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan619 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Greg S said: The last team playing 3 road games as a WC and winning the Super Bowl was the Giants with Manning. That usually doesn't happen. Getting the #1 seed would be huge for the Bills. I think it will come down to the Bills and Ravens as to who gets it. If I’m not mistaken, the Bucs just did it last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, BillsFan619 said: If I’m not mistaken, the Bucs just did it last year. Did they? I actually forgot who won that division and did they play 3 road games. I remember GB and I think WAS on the road but I don't remember the other game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 minute ago, ScottLaw said: Yes they did…. @Washington, @New orleans, @ GB….. I don’t think anyone’s saying the Bills can’t go to the SB unless they are the one seed…. But it absolutely makes a difference. I would hope the Bills could avoid KC on the road (don't want them to have to win twice there in one year) and Baltimore. Any other road game I think the Bills would have a very good shot. That said I want two playoff games in OP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 hours ago, BillsFan619 said: If I’m not mistaken, the Bucs just did it last year. They have the GOAT which was obviously a big reason for that given his post season resume. They were also only the 3rd WC team in NFL history to win 3 road playoff games to get to a SB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan619 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 hours ago, ScottLaw said: Yes they did…. @Washington, @New orleans, @ GB….. I don’t think anyone’s saying the Bills can’t go to the SB unless they are the one seed…. But it absolutely makes a difference. 49 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said: They have the GOAT which was obviously a big reason for that given his post season resume. They were also only the 3rd WC team in NFL history to win 3 road playoff games to get to a SB. Oh, I definitely think the #1 seed is important. I was just simply stating that the Bucs were the last team to win three road road playoff games and then win the Super Bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 For the Bills 10 straight game to finish the season YES we want a BYE week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffBillsForLife Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 I'd rather only have to play 3 games to win it all instead of 4, wouldn't you? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 On 10/20/2021 at 6:34 PM, Steptide said: This seems to be one of the things I hear talked about the most on local radio and here between Bill's fans. Call me ignorant, but why is it so important? Even if we played the afc championship in buffalo last year, I don't think the outcome would've been any different. Don't get me wrong, if we were to get a 1st round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs, that's not a bad thing, but at the end of the day, the 2 best teams are gonna end up in the superbowl. I'm all for getting the 1 seed , but just don't understand why it's such a huge focus . Is there statistical proof that a 1 seed has a better chance to win the superbowl? For me IF we had a dome yes. We don’t. So I would rather see the best possible conditions for our high powered offense in January Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 With only 1 first round bye now, it's more important than it's ever been. People can say they worry about the bye making you rusty or come out the gate a bit slow, but after a 17 game season, we have no idea what kind of shape our players will be in or who's recovering from injury. I think the players would take it 10/10 times if given the chance, and I trust this coaching staff will have them prepared without losing momentum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 (edited) 12 hours ago, TBBills said: Talking about playoffs totally different atmosphere. Yup. No tomato cans in the playoffs. When the Jets, Jags and Texans play at home they're still likely to lose. 11 hours ago, ScottLaw said: Yes they did…. @Washington, @New orleans, @ GB….. I don’t think anyone’s saying the Bills can’t go to the SB unless they are the one seed…. But it absolutely makes a difference. Yes. That. It makes a real, perceptible, very statistically significant difference. Edited October 23, 2021 by Thurman#1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Real McClappy Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 (edited) 1990-91 Bills #1 seed = SB 1991-2 Bills #1 seed = SB 1992-3 Biils #4 seed = SB (Greatest comeback ever) 1993-4 Bills #1 seed = SB A Bye and Homefield through out is absolutely huge. I'm still not a fan of the expanded playoffs overall. I like the old format of #1 and #2 getting a bye week. Edited October 23, 2021 by Real McNasty 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 If you assume a 50% chance of winning any given playoff game, having 1 less game doubles your chances of winning the Super Bowl. I would say that is a pretty big deal. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cba fan Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 (edited) On 10/22/2021 at 7:52 AM, BearNorth said: Through week 6, Away teams have won 50 games, Home teams 42. lol, Home field matters. In conference championship games it is about 65% so it increases in playoffs. https://www.lineups.com/articles/how-important-is-home-field-advantage-in-the-nfl/ Edited October 23, 2021 by cba fan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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