Allen probably won't ever be the best deep ball thrower in the league

[transplantbillsfan]

I just don't think Allen is ever going to throw those consistent rainbow dimes that Russell Wilson (best deep ball thrower in the league, IMHO) or even Patrick Mahomes throw.

 

But ya know what... that's okay.

 

First of all, the reason I don't think he reaches that point is his tendency to throw a flat ball on those traditional (using that word on purpose... I'll get back to it) "bombs" QBs throw. Now... I think Allen is accurate enough on his deep balls and I think he can get better, but I just don't think he'll ever be the league's best.

 

But once again, that's okay.

 

I think Allen is already up there with Rodgers as the most accurate intermediate passer in the NFL. Here's a good example:

 

...but wait... that's a pass that traveled nearly 40 yards in the air without Allen’s feet planted as he's running to his right. Wouldn't that be a "deep ball" for a bunch of NFL QBs? Yet Allen throws a dime with such ease.

 

So while I think we will occasionally get upset for missed bombs down the field from Allen that he probably should have hit (week 1 to Manny Sanders... though that one was really only off by a yard or 2), we can rejoice that we have what looks like one of the most accurate intermediate passers in the NFL... and that intermediate range appears to be anything up to 35-40 yards beyond the LOS.

 

Pretty impressive if ya ask me 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

21 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I just don't think Allen is ever going to throw those consistent rainbow dimes that Russell Wilson (best deep ball thrower in the league, IMHO) or even Patrick Mahomes throw.

 

But ya know what... that's okay.

 

First of all, the reason I don't think he reaches that point is his tendency to throw a flat ball on those traditional (using that word on purpose... I'll get back to it) "bombs" QBs throw. Now... I think Allen is accurate enough on his deep balls and I think he can get better, but I just don't think he'll ever be the league's best.

 

But once again, that's okay.

 

I think Allen is already up there with Rodgers as the most accurate intermediate passer in the NFL. Here's a good example:

 

...but wait... that's a pass that traveled nearly 40 yards in the air without Allen’s feet planted as he's running to his right. Wouldn't that be a "deep ball" for a bunch of NFL QBs? Yet Allen throws a dime with such ease.

 

So while I think we will occasionally get upset for missed bombs down the field from Allen that he probably should have hit (week 1 to Manny Sanders... though that one was really only off by a yard or 2), we can rejoice that we have what looks like one of the most accurate intermediate passers in the NFL... and that intermediate range appears to be anything up to 35-40 yards beyond the LOS.

 

Pretty impressive if ya ask me 

I think he tries to laser them in to keep them out of the wind...that deep ball he floated to diggs early in the game drifted way right in the wind.  Dude was hitting frequent bombs his rookie season to Robert foster of all people 🤣 

[Big Turk]

Those rollout throws that he puts into tiny windows with perfect ball placement are almost unbelievable. The ball looks like it is a frozen rope that just hovers in the air.

[Utah John]

Some of the greatest basketball centers couldn't shoot free throws well.  None of their shot motions -- either a close-in pop or a set shot from 10 feet -- worked.  Sometimes they tried backing up from the free throw line so they could take a shot that fit their bodies.

 

Maybe Josh's problem is that he doesn't have optimal mechanics on what would be range-stretching deep throws for most QBs.  When he throws a 40 yard pass, it's a laser, and that doesn't work for deep throws where he needs air under the ball so the receiver can track it and make adjustments.  He has great touch on shorter passes but not on that range.  Maybe he needs to let the receivers get farther downfield, and then unleash a 60-70 yard arc the receiver can run under.  DBs won't believe they need to cover WRs that far.

[transplantbillsfan]

13 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Some of the greatest basketball centers couldn't shoot free throws well.  None of their shot motions -- either a close-in pop or a set shot from 10 feet -- worked.  Sometimes they tried backing up from the free throw line so they could take a shot that fit their bodies.

 

Maybe Josh's problem is that he doesn't have optimal mechanics on what would be range-stretching deep throws for most QBs.  When he throws a 40 yard pass, it's a laser, and that doesn't work for deep throws where he needs air under the ball so the receiver can track it and make adjustments.  He has great touch on shorter passes but not on that range.  Maybe he needs to let the receivers get farther downfield, and then unleash a 60-70 yard arc the receiver can run under.  DBs won't believe they need to cover WRs that far.

 

You honestly might be right... maybe we need to really give him some 7 step drops with max protect and let him chuck the ball 60-70 yards down the field more often.

 

Hopefully Stevenson develops into a legit deep threat.

[Doc Brown]

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

[The Wiz]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

Another point to this is Mahomes and Wilson have Hill and Metcalf would can absolutely burn their coverage and have time to adjust to a rainbow throw to them. 

 

I know we have fast wrs but those guys are FAST.

 

I will say Wilson does throw a very accurate deep ball.  I feel like Hill makes the play more than mahomes does on his deep catches. 

Edited September 28, 2021 by The Wiz

[Utah John]

16 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

That throw to Diggs against the Broncos sort of proves my point.  When Allen released the ball he was standing on his own 25 yard line.  Diggs caught it at the other 15 yard line.  60 yards in the air.  It was a very accurate throw but because it had an arc it also gave Diggs a little room to make adjustments, which made it look like the throw itself was the only reason for the accuracy.  Diggs also had a lot to do with it.  Anyway, 60 yards seems to be a good distance for Allen making deep throws.  

[Doc Brown]

34 minutes ago, Utah John said:

That throw to Diggs against the Broncos sort of proves my point.  When Allen released the ball he was standing on his own 25 yard line.  Diggs caught it at the other 15 yard line.  60 yards in the air.  It was a very accurate throw but because it had an arc it also gave Diggs a little room to make adjustments, which made it look like the throw itself was the only reason for the accuracy.  Diggs also had a lot to do with it.  Anyway, 60 yards seems to be a good distance for Allen making deep throws.  

There was another throw of about 60 yards against the Chiefs in the regular season game last year to Diggs that went threw his hands in the back of the endzone.  It would've been a tough catch but the ball placement was perfect with the right arc.

 

There's been a lot of throws over the last few years where a WR gets a little separation 25 to 40 yards down the field with no safety help and Josh doesn't put enough air under it to let the WR make a play on the ball.  The most glaring example I can remember is against the Ravens in 2019 in the 1st quarter where John Brown had a couple of steps about 30 yards down the field and Josh threw the ball too much on a rope and overthrew him.  Just throw the ball a little farther with some arc and Brown easily has a touchdown.  You saw the same thing to Sanders against Pittsburgh.  It's a difficult problem to fix but I think if there's any QB who could fix it.  It's Allen.

Edited September 28, 2021 by Doc Brown

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

Having applied real science to the trajectory curve of Allen's sweet spot inverted-fish alpha* curvature, aka 'projected force v. finesse under duress, 1983 mk.2', Allen should come into prime in year 23, with an apex approaching week 12, 2041- projections indicate likely a Wednesday. However, the ensuing morale curve is a lagging figure, with optimum results on March 15'th 2046. Using the deductive coefficient, we can safely assume to tune out the Buffalo Bills until at least 2038, with an optimum 'check for relevance' window beginning in approximately 2043, August. 

 

*real scientific term

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Really?

 

Give us a championship and nothing else matters 

 

3 games and you throw in the towel?

 

 

Quote

Allen shook off his early season inconsistencies with a career-high-matching five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing), and his completion rate jumped from 56 through two games to 62. With 358 yards passing, he improved to 9-0 when topping 300, and the offense generated 481 yards after combining for just 685 in opening the season 1-1.

https://wtop.com/washington-football/2021/09/bills-allen-led-attack-finds-swagger-in-rout-of-washington/

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Jesus. 
 

you ain’t seen nothing yet. 
 

Imagine Josh

 

For a decade or more 🤔  

Edited September 28, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[maryland-bills-fan]

Folks,  time for a little physics lesson here.   The laws of gravity are real but most people, and that includes physics students, do not really comprehend them.  Skipping the equations and the simple differential equations, a summary is this.   The distance that an object drops depends upon the square of the time that it is in the gravitation field.  That is time (sec) X time(sec).   .... There is a "free fall calculator" ( https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/free-fall  ) that can do these calculations for you. ... (These are for a small object without wind resistance to forward motion, or the football "sailing" and floating down slower than a little piece of lead).  Anyway lets compare how far the object sinks (arcs) if it travels the same forward distance in different times-  that is it is thrown faster or slower.

1.5 second to get there ====== drops 36'

1.0 seconds ==============drops 16'

0.75 seconds=============drops 9'

 

The drop is from the highest spot the ball rose to compared to where it was caught.  The ball always is thrown upwards to start.

 

Allen throws a fast ball, it doesn't spend much time in the air and doesn't get real high and doesn't have much drop.  A good thing is that in windy conditions, a side wind or wind from behind or against, does not have much time to change where the ball is going.  That is a good thing. Especially in Buffalo.

 

The fastball  is not in the air very long, which does not give much time for the defensive back to react to the ball and knock it down. That is a good thing.

 

If a linebacker is between the QB and WR, they can knock down/catch the pass IF they are not in the right spot.  If they are NOT in the right spot, then hey have little time to recover and get in the way.  So the QB can sling it fast and "thread" it between DB's OR float it over the LB heads with arc but give the DB more time to break on the ball.

 

On the long balls, a weak arm QB, will throw a rainbow that can drop down over the DB and this is good if the DB is beat by speed and running directly away from the QB.  Another way to work is for the WR to be running across the field and then a slow arcing ball is a bad thing because the DB can recover. A fast pass can go to the WR easier.  Notice how many passes Allen throws that way.

 

I disagree that Allen will never be a good long ball passer.  He has enough "touch" to throw the sideline fade and can throw the rainbow to the WR running directly away from him to a burner WR. For many QB that is their only long ball.  He does not do that many of those plays but rather uses deep breaks to achieve the same thing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by maryland-bills-fan

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

16 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I disagree that Allen will never be a good long ball passer.  He has enough "touch" to throw the sideline fade and can throw the rainbow to the WR running directly away from him to a burner WR. For many QB that is their only long ball.  He does not do that many of those plays but rather uses deep breaks to achieve the same thing.

I was saying yesterday that I am no longer worried about 3rd and 15 (or more)

 

why? Because “inaccurate” Josh can do it way more than not. 
 

his conversion rate is far better than many if not all on 3rd and 15+
 

and not Hail Mary plays or one’s gotten by flags 

[Matt_In_NH]

When Josh is "on" he can hit anything.  The only issue I see is he is not always "on" but during his career we have seen a dramatic improvement of this.  My opinion is he tends to put a lot of pressure on himself and that is not good for his performance but when he is relaxed he is money.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

28 minutes ago, mattynh said:

When Josh is "on" he can hit anything.  The only issue I see is he is not always "on" but during his career we have seen a dramatic improvement of this.  My opinion is he tends to put a lot of pressure on himself and that is not good for his performance but when he is relaxed he is money.

 

Favreian when he was on, he was on 

when he was off …. My god he was bad. 
 

I’ve yet to see Josh have a bad Favre like game (matured - not rookie road bumps)

[pocoboy]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Pretty impressive if ya ask me 

 

The impressive part is the side of his game that was deficient at one point is now a strength, so much so that things he used to do well are now getting criticized by detractors and "we need it all now" fans...

 

If you hit 1/3 long passes, you've done well. It won't be long where at least 1 of the misses will draw flags based on reputation...

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

thats it, he needs Denver Wyoming type thin air 🤷‍♂️ 

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I was saying yesterday that I am no longer worried about 3rd and 15 (or more)

 

why? Because “inaccurate” Josh can do it way more than not. 
 

his conversion rate is far better than many if not all on 3rd and 15+
 

and not Hail Mary plays or one’s gotten by flags 

I remember in maybe 2019, it was 3rd and 15 from their own maybe 5? He stood in the the end zone a d delivered a 20 yard out to zay or smoke. I felt then at that moment  the days of 3rd and 5 or more being a guaranteed punt were over. 

[The Jokeman]

Honestly, I'd prefer Josh make the short throws and keep the clock moving and drives alive etc. As watching Brady and Manning to me that's how you win. Bombs are great but sustaining a long drive to me is football at it's best. 

[zow2]

We talked about it the past 2 years. His deep balls need a higher trajectory (ala Russell Wilson) or arc as the OP mentioned.  

That way WRs can run under them and it’s much harder for DB’s to knock the ball away with an out stretched arm.

But yeah, on the intermediate throws and roll outs Josh is money.

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

Honestly, maybe take deep shots from our own 30....give josh more room to air it out.  Let the receiver get way downfield.  Inside the 50, Josh can frozen rope them no problem.  

[unbillievable]

He throws the deep ball like Jeff George. Someone should show him how to do it like Jeff Blake.

Also, anything under 40 feels like an intermediate throw, when it's a bomb to most QB's.

[BigDingus]

8 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I think he tries to laser them in to keep them out of the wind...that deep ball he floated to diggs early in the game drifted way right in the wind.  Dude was hitting frequent bombs his rookie season to Robert foster of all people 🤣 

 

They weren't really frequent, his rookie year & his sophomore season he was rated worst or second worst in passes beyond 30 yards in the air (I believe it was 30). One of the weird problems he had was UNDER throwing them, though he had some over throws too. 

 

I agree with the OP about him never being a very accurate deep passer, at least not from the pocket. He seems to have better control while running for whatever reason, but hitting an open man in stride from the pocket causes him issue.

 

I think the real reason is a combination of his height & arm strength. I have zero clue the size of other QB's, but when you see Josh throw some of those deep passes, you can just tell he doesn't have to put much effort into it. I feel like a lot of other QB's have a natural sweet spot, and when throwing deep, they know they have to use extra force & effort to get it on target. Josh on the other hand, he's already towering over the line, then has to choose between putting a little power behind it, or actually restraining himself. If he puts power behind it, will it just zip way past someone before they even get there? If he tries to hold back, does it float too much & require the receiver to stop his run to come back for it?

 

I get that technically all QB's have to think about this, but when your arm can just fire one off 50+ yards at the flick of a wrist, you have a different set of issues. You can almost see when Allen is throwing deep that it's almost too easy. The balls he under throws seem more of him knowing "if I put any juice behind this, I might launch it into the scoreboard," and trying to adjust his own power down.

 

It's hard to put into words, but maybe others have noticed it too. It just seems like he has the opposite problem that someone like Brady has. Brady can throw fairly deep if he HAS to (not like he used to) but after exerting a lot more effort. Josh could throw 40 yards and the ball won't even be hitting its arc. It's a weird problem to have, but it just feels like a big dude with a huge arm struggling to reel that in a bit.

[The Jokeman]

30 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

He throws the deep ball like Jeff George. Someone should show him how to do it like Jeff Blake.

Also, anything under 40 feels like an intermediate throw, when it's a bomb to most QB's.

Jeff Blake like Russell Wilson was on the shorter side which is why they had to "sky" it. I fear if Josh started doing that he'd be more susceptible to Interceptions as it take longer to get to his intended target or give the DB a better chance to catch that intended receiver.  

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

 

 

He's shown flashes of being able to make these throws............the throw to Brown in the finale against Miami was another example.       Then others he overthrows by 8-10 yards.........which is astonishingly inaccurate for a top NFL QB.    I know he's worked on the mechanics of the throw and a good foundation is important but he needs to get a better feel for it within his arm.    Control can be improved with the rest of the body but command of your pitches comes from being to make subtle adjustments from the shoulder down. 

Edited September 28, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

25 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

They weren't really frequent, his rookie year & his sophomore season he was rated worst or second worst in passes beyond 30 yards in the air (I believe it was 30). One of the weird problems he had was UNDER throwing them, though he had some over throws too. 

 

I agree with the OP about him never being a very accurate deep passer, at least not from the pocket. He seems to have better control while running for whatever reason, but hitting an open man in stride from the pocket causes him issue.

 

I think the real reason is a combination of his height & arm strength. I have zero clue the size of other QB's, but when you see Josh throw some of those deep passes, you can just tell he doesn't have to put much effort into it. I feel like a lot of other QB's have a natural sweet spot, and when throwing deep, they know they have to use extra force & effort to get it on target. Josh on the other hand, he's already towering over the line, then has to choose between putting a little power behind it, or actually restraining himself. If he puts power behind it, will it just zip way past someone before they even get there? If he tries to hold back, does it float too much & require the receiver to stop his run to come back for it?

 

I get that technically all QB's have to think about this, but when your arm can just fire one off 50+ yards at the flick of a wrist, you have a different set of issues. You can almost see when Allen is throwing deep that it's almost too easy. The balls he under throws seem more of him knowing "if I put any juice behind this, I might launch it into the scoreboard," and trying to adjust his own power down.

 

It's hard to put into words, but maybe others have noticed it too. It just seems like he has the opposite problem that someone like Brady has. Brady can throw fairly deep if he HAS to (not like he used to) but after exerting a lot more effort. Josh could throw 40 yards and the ball won't even be hitting its arc. It's a weird problem to have, but it just feels like a big dude with a huge arm struggling to reel that in a bit.

Yea could be me just remembering the big plays...our receivers were absolute poop that year so its tough to tell where the blame goes lol i think we had more drops and less wr separation than anyone else in the league.  I remember year 2 he noticeably struggled on the deep ball...I thought he was good last year though. 

[unbillievable]

27 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

They weren't really frequent, his rookie year & his sophomore season he was rated worst or second worst in passes beyond 30 yards in the air (I believe it was 30). One of the weird problems he had was UNDER throwing them, though he had some over throws too. 

 

I agree with the OP about him never being a very accurate deep passer, at least not from the pocket. He seems to have better control while running for whatever reason, but hitting an open man in stride from the pocket causes him issue.

 

I think the real reason is a combination of his height & arm strength. I have zero clue the size of other QB's, but when you see Josh throw some of those deep passes, you can just tell he doesn't have to put much effort into it. I feel like a lot of other QB's have a natural sweet spot, and when throwing deep, they know they have to use extra force & effort to get it on target. Josh on the other hand, he's already towering over the line, then has to choose between putting a little power behind it, or actually restraining himself. If he puts power behind it, will it just zip way past someone before they even get there? If he tries to hold back, does it float too much & require the receiver to stop his run to come back for it?

 

I get that technically all QB's have to think about this, but when your arm can just fire one off 50+ yards at the flick of a wrist, you have a different set of issues. You can almost see when Allen is throwing deep that it's almost too easy. The balls he under throws seem more of him knowing "if I put any juice behind this, I might launch it into the scoreboard," and trying to adjust his own power down.

 

It's hard to put into words, but maybe others have noticed it too. It just seems like he has the opposite problem that someone like Brady has. Brady can throw fairly deep if he HAS to (not like he used to) but after exerting a lot more effort. Josh could throw 40 yards and the ball won't even be hitting its arc. It's a weird problem to have, but it just feels like a big dude with a huge arm struggling to reel that in a bit.

 

It's probably like golf where it's much easier to take a full swing than trying to do 3/4th or 1/2 swings. 

 

This can be solved if the play is timed to hit the same distance, but that can be exploited by the defense too.

[colin]

there was one pass to diggs late in the game yesterday, it faked out the camera, i thought for a second the ball was tipped, but the camera man just wasn't fast enough.  on the replay, in slow mo, a guest at my house commented that she could barely see the ball.  only person i've seen put the ball out that accurately and fast with so little fanfare in his throw was jeff george.

 

as far as his shortcomings, to me it is all in allen's head and feet.  he gets the sugar high and that leads to holding the ball or bad decisions, or he gets his feet into the wrong place and just throws from there.  the offset of that is his feet allow him to throw darts while rolling out, run for big gainers, and avoid sacks that he has no business doing.  as far as his head, his sugar highness is a problem, but he's a freakin dog and will bite down and grind on anyone at anytime, and the team sees that and frankly often plays above themselves.  i think the approach of small things to focus on week to week is what you want, you look to refine a guy like him without knocking off too much of the pixie dust.

 

i still think he's gonna go down the GOAT.

[Not at the table Karlos]

9 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I think he tries to laser them in to keep them out of the wind...that deep ball he floated to diggs early in the game drifted way right in the wind.  Dude was hitting frequent bombs his rookie season to Robert foster of all people 🤣 

The "bombs" he was hitting His rookie year were mostly deep posts, outs or crossers. Routes that the ball can be thrown on a laser. It's the vertical routes where the receiver is running in a straight line away from the QB and the ball needs to be dropped in front of him that's the issue. With that route you want the receiver to be able to track the ball and run under it. The way Josh throws it you have to make extremely tough catches like Sanders has to complete it. The times he does put air under the ball the receiver usually needs to slow down like John brown vs dolphins week 2 last year. He did show a lot of progress last year but seems to have regressed some with his touch this year.

 

I'm pretty sure it's something that can be fixed he just needs to work on it a while longer. 

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I just don't think Allen is ever going to throw those consistent rainbow dimes that Russell Wilson (best deep ball thrower in the league, IMHO) or even Patrick Mahomes throw.

 

But ya know what... that's okay.

 

First of all, the reason I don't think he reaches that point is his tendency to throw a flat ball on those traditional (using that word on purpose... I'll get back to it) "bombs" QBs throw. Now... I think Allen is accurate enough on his deep balls and I think he can get better, but I just don't think he'll ever be the league's best.

 

But once again, that's okay.

 

I think Allen is already up there with Rodgers as the most accurate intermediate passer in the NFL. Here's a good example:

 

...but wait... that's a pass that traveled nearly 40 yards in the air without Allen’s feet planted as he's running to his right. Wouldn't that be a "deep ball" for a bunch of NFL QBs? Yet Allen throws a dime with such ease.

 

So while I think we will occasionally get upset for missed bombs down the field from Allen that he probably should have hit (week 1 to Manny Sanders... though that one was really only off by a yard or 2), we can rejoice that we have what looks like one of the most accurate intermediate passers in the NFL... and that intermediate range appears to be anything up to 35-40 yards beyond the LOS.

 

Pretty impressive if ya ask me 

 

I don't understand why Mahomes keeps getting put on this list of best deep ball throwers.  Its like no one watches him play or something.  His deep ball is not as good as his overall passing production indicates.  If you watch him play, his receivers are constantly making excellent adjustments to get the balls that are off target, especially Hill.  And a lot of other times he has guys running wide open too where its like playing 7 on 7 drills.  Mahomes is an excellent QB no doubt, not knocking him, just saying his deep ball accuracy is not the top of the list.  

 

The top 3 best deep ball throwers in the league in no particular order are Rodgers, Wilson and Brady.  Brady does not have the arm strength as those other guys, but his deep ball accuracy down field is still excellent.  

 

I am not saying Mahomes is a bad deep ball thrower either, I just think it gets completely over exaggerated with him because he has so much production, but if you watch him play, you will see someone like Hill frequently adjust to an off target pass down field and make the catch, even in crowds, double coverage, etc.  Hill IMO (no disrespect to Diggs) is the best deep ball WR in the NFL, with Diggs and Hopkins IMO being the other 2 in the top 3.  Hlll has an uncanny ability despite his small stature to find a way to the ball no matter the coverage and somehow make the catch look easy at times.  

 

As far as Allen goes, there is NO WAY I am going to say he can't ever be in this category right now.  We are talking about a QB who has taken massive steps forward each year in the league, is still growing as we speak further, and has the strongest arm in the NFL and is paired with one of the top 3 best deep ball threats in the league in Diggs with some other good deep weapons too in Sanders and Davis.  To stand here today and say he can never be one of the best at it is mind blowing to me given the tools he has and the growth he has already shown in all facets of the game.  

 

In conclusion though, it doesn't matter if he does or doesnt become one of the best deep ball throwers in the league.  That is in no way the barometer for being an elite QB in the NFL nor an indicator of future Super Bowl success.  But I am also not even going to consider saying Josh can or cant be anything at this stage of his career and I am utterly shocked anyone would dare make any final conclusions about any part of his game today while he is still ascending as a player.  

Edited September 28, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Jauronimo]

14 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

The "bombs" he was hitting His rookie year were mostly deep posts, outs or crossers. Routes that the ball can be thrown on a laser. It's the vertical routes where the receiver is running in a straight line away from the QB and the ball needs to be dropped in front of him that's the issue. With that route you want the receiver to be able to track the ball and run under it. The way Josh throws it you have to make extremely tough catches like Sanders has to complete it. The times he does put air under the ball the receiver usually needs to slow down like John brown vs dolphins week 2 last year. He did show a lot of progress last year but seems to have regressed some with his touch this year.

 

I'm pretty sure it's something that can be fixed he just needs to work on it a while longer. 

100% agree.  The trajectory on his passes means if hes off by a few degrees on release he will overthrow by 5 to 10 yards.  He doesn't have that Tyrod moonball that he can drop into a bucket over the WRs shoulder.  

[dave mcbride]

57 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

The "bombs" he was hitting His rookie year were mostly deep posts, outs or crossers. Routes that the ball can be thrown on a laser. It's the vertical routes where the receiver is running in a straight line away from the QB and the ball needs to be dropped in front of him that's the issue. With that route you want the receiver to be able to track the ball and run under it. The way Josh throws it you have to make extremely tough catches like Sanders has to complete it. The times he does put air under the ball the receiver usually needs to slow down like John brown vs dolphins week 2 last year. He did show a lot of progress last year but seems to have regressed some with his touch this year.

 

I'm pretty sure it's something that can be fixed he just needs to work on it a while longer. 

Good post. He did hit on a high-trajectory bomb to Diggs last week - a play in which Diggs had time to adjust and make the play.

[corta765]

The player most are today will be far different 5 years from now and 10 years from now. Truthfully age may help Allen pass better because half of his issue is too much zip, but the bigger thing is many QB's as they get older get smarter and more relaxed as they play the position. I honestly think Allen 5 years from now probably will be a better true QB because he won't press as much as he does now.

[34-78-83]

Once again, it has to be mentioned...

There was no rainbow touch pass that was going to work in the WFT game and the 18 to 20 mph gusts.

Every pass literally had to be gunned in there to get to the intended WR and Josh did that, thankfully.

While I certainly agree there are at least 10 better long ball throwers than Josh (which I get is your main point) I also think its a lot easier to look good in that area when you play in a dome or a warm weather region.

[Captain Hindsight]

4 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I remember in maybe 2019, it was 3rd and 15 from their own maybe 5? He stood in the the end zone a d delivered a 20 yard out to zay or smoke. I felt then at that moment  the days of 3rd and 5 or more being a guaranteed punt were over. 

Right? what a feeling 

[WideNine]

Some of the best deep ball throwers I have seen do not play in the winds of a stadium like we have. They throw a ball with good arc that allows receivers to slightly adjust, but those would float in our newly minted Highmark Stadium - probably plays into why so many QBs dink and dunk on us when playing here and perhaps why they throw so many INTs when pressing from behind...

 

A better gauge would be to watch Allen's throws in a dome. Allen has come a long way, but his early football foundation was likely using that strong arm to get the ball to a spot where his receiver was sitting stationary. The confidence of understanding what defenses are doing to know where he wants to go with the ball plays into the anticipation, touch, and timing needed to hit his receivers in stride.

 

That is a work in progress, but trending in the right direction by what he is delivering on the field. Allen has that growth mindset of working to continuously improve his game and not settling for what worked before. He is probably a bigger critic of his game than we could ever be.

 

I believe that Daboll has used the sideline out and comeback routes to help Allen keep the ball away from coverage - particularly with all the man coverage he saw his first two seasons. Those routes also factored heavily into our scramble drills, but I do like that he and Allen worked more on his deeper seam routes in the offseason, with Kumerow waiting in the wings and Knox coming on, those could be very productive plays for us when combined with a bit of play action to help split that two-high look or beat a single high safety if he loses a step.

 

It is one that Brady and Gronk made a living off of leveraging the size/height mismatches.

 

 

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

It's not too late for him to be able to fine tune this aspect of his game, but as others have mentioned it doesn't preclude him from being a top 5 franchise QB in this league as long as he can deliver when it matters most when games are on the line and you have to move the ball more methodically down the field and can't just air it out 50 yards down field in one shot to win a game.

[Buffalo Boy]

10 hours ago, Utah John said:

Anyway, 60 yards seems to be a good distance for Allen making deep throws.  

When all of Bills mafia is living a fantasy….. that is real… and we just chat about it like it’s meh😎💪🔥

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

He's shown flashes of being able to make these throws............the throw to Brown in the finale against Miami was another example.       Then others he overthrows by 8-10 yards.........which is astonishingly inaccurate for a top NFL QB.    I know he's worked on the mechanics of the throw and a good foundation is important but he needs to get a better feel for it within his arm.    Control can be improved with the rest of the body but command of your pitches comes from being to make subtle adjustments from the shoulder down. 

 

A lot of it is timing.  If he's late to throw it can almost look like he underthrew it, and if you release a bit early the player can't get to the spot.  

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

 

Oh he absolutely can still hit the deep ball and I don't think he's a bad deep ball thrower... I just don't think he'll ever be as close to automatic as Russell Wilson is.

12 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Another point to this is Mahomes and Wilson have Hill and Metcalf would can absolutely burn their coverage and have time to adjust to a rainbow throw to them. 

 

I know we have fast wrs but those guys are FAST.

 

I will say Wilson does throw a very accurate deep ball.  I feel like Hill makes the play more than mahomes does on his deep catches. 

 

But Allen doesn't throw a rainbow deep ball, which is kinda what I'm saying his issue on his deep passes is.

 

I don't know if he'll ever adjust to doing that.

8 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Really?

 

Give us a championship and nothing else matters 

 

3 games and you throw in the towel?

 

 

 

 

Ummmmm... what????