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9/26/21 Bills vs. WTF Postgame Thread


Chandler#81

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The biggest factors in this game to me was:

 

1. Allen moving in the pocket. Its obvious that they were letting Chase Young speed rush and the plan was to just push him as deep as possible and let Josh step up. I have no idea why Young or the WFT coaches didn't mix it up more and have Young try tow work more inside.

2. The Bills strong defensive play

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:


Not only that but going into the game Sanders catch % was like 42 or 43% or so - “go ahead and double 14”

 

Now that we held the Manny Sands Emergence Party, DCs spinning the prayer wheels

Teams had been bracketing Diggs (and often Beasley) until the Bills proved they could get the ball to Sanders and Knox. This week is going to help a lot with opening things up for diggs.

Edited by YoloinOhio
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44 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Teams had been bracketing Diggs (and often Beasley) until the Bills proved they could get the ball to Sanders and Knox. This week is going to help a lot with opening things up for diggs.

 

It is a lot of what us Bills fans have been hoping for.  The opposing Ds will have to pick their poison.  If Josh can identify that look out.

Got to add "sprinkles" of Gabe to the list.  

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43 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Allen dismantled their entire defensive strategy.  It must be disheartening to be a WFT coach today.

 

Agree, and so did the WFT fans. From their forum, right after the 93y drive:

 

"They can literally do ANYTHING they want on offense."

 

Omg people, I am getting the, the: Schadenboner!

Edited by Dukestreetking
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6 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Here’s a tid bit from Grazianos weekly “Overreaction” article. 
 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/32287437/judging-week-3-nfl-overreactions-rams-new-super-bowl-favorites-how-bad-steelers

 

 

The Bills are the best team in the AFC

 

Buffalo's offense might not have looked like its dominant 2020 self in the first two games of the season, but it woke up in a massive way Sunday. Josh Allen threw four touchdown passes and ran for another score in a 43-21 victory over Washington. (Remember when Washington was supposed to have one of the league's best defenses? We were all so young.)

It was the second game in Allen's career in which he had more than 300 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown. The only other quarterbacks who ever had more than one such game are Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning, so that's pretty solid. This looked like the Bills offense we remember from November and December of 2020, when it was pretty much setting fire to the league on a weekly basis.

 

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Bills were the AFC runner-up last season, so it was never going to be a stretch to think they might take one more step and become the conference's best team. The Chiefs, who have won the conference two years in a row, fell to 1-2 with a division loss to the Chargers, and the Browns' Week 1 collapse is really the only reason Kansas City isn't 0-3


Now, the Bills did lose to the Steelers in Week 1, which puts them in a group of AFC teams that are 2-1 so far. And the Broncos and Raiders are each 3-0. But meaning no disrespect to what those teams have done so far, it's fair if you want to use Buffalo's 2020 season and our preseason opinion of the Bills as a means of elevating their expectations over those of Vegas and Denver.


Still, there are 14 more regular-season games and the playoffs left to decide all of this, so it really doesn't matter what we think (or even what the reality is) through Week 3. But if you had the Bills representing the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, you're feeling a lot better about that pick after they outscored their opponents 88-21 over Weeks 2 and 3

 

What he didn't mention is we have 9 games left against teams with a combined record of 5-22.

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12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Good points. Let me give you my take. First off your comment about D. Jones is disingenuous. Conveniently, you forgot to mention he had 95 yards rushing and a TD. 

 

Secondly, I never called for Allen's head. That's just plain bull#### and a incorrect interpretation.

 

I believe Allen's struggles go back 4 games not 2. I'm entitled to voice my concerns about Allen. I brought up legitimate issues about his play. For example, mechanics, footwork, confidence, vision, jitterness in the pocket, and inaccurate passes. Like it or not those concerns were and are legitimate. Also, talked about the small sample size of Allen's success. That's just undeniable. I never questioned his ceiling and raw talent. I talked about players who had great runs like Cam, Kap, Cousins, RG3, Geoff, and Wentz. An article posted here from I believe the NY Times stated Allen may be regressing. Thus, adding some legitimacy to my posts. They aren't just some random trolling or hatred. 

 

Red flags is a matter of perception. I can see how it can be perceived as too strong. Others here pointed out that they disagreed with my takes. I acknowledged their views as valid. Look at my response to Thurman.

 

Your knock off the rust statement is at best marginal. 

 

Hope that clarifies my posts. 

 

Also, I think the true test of Allen and the offense will be on the road vs KC and Tenn. 

 

I look forward to others opinions and always welcome differing viewpoints without personal attacks.

 

 

The Ravens v Bills playoff game was no environment to throw a lot of passes in at a high completion rate for any QB. The national experts and tv watching fans never seem to factor this into how they review player performances, because honestly they don't know. That was not a game that can be cited as an example of inconsistent QB play as part of any theoretical "Streak" of lesser performance. Plus the Ravens had a playoff caliber defense. Things like that matter.

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1 hour ago, 34-78-83 said:

The Ravens v Bills playoff game was no environment to throw a lot of passes in at a high completion rate for any QB. The national experts and tv watching fans never seem to factor this into how they review player performances, because honestly they don't know. That was not a game that can be cited as an example of inconsistent QB play as part of any theoretical "Streak" of lesser performance. Plus the Ravens had a playoff caliber defense. Things like that matter.

 

The case in point was Justin Tucker missed two FGs.  And that dude is about as automatic as there is in the history of the game.

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6 hours ago, K-9 said:

What does regression actually look like? Is it simply a function of lesser stats from one year to the next? Because if it is, then Josh will be in some great company if thst ends up being the case. 
 

I think the entire Josh Allen “regression” narrative is a vestige of that group of hardcore pundits who still insist on having to be right about Josh Allen coming out of Wyoming. 


I pointed out on one of the “regression” threads that there are two meanings of regression that are being used interchangeably:

1) regression towards the mean in a statistical sense.  There are numerous reasons for this including defenses adjusting, more snaps given to the run game, different WR corps, the wild card of injuries etc

2) regression in skill - return to previous mechanics, footwork, decision making etc

 

The former may well occur

The latter is clearly what some folks here and some pundits have been predicting

 

 

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7 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

1. You are missing the point with the times. The questioning if Allen is or will regress is a valid one; especially, after his first 2 games of the season. Time will tell and surely you would agree one good game at home vs a porous Wash D isn't the end all to the debate.

 

What are you debating?

 

*  That Allen is or isn't a franchise QB?  IMO there is no debate here - he is the Bills franchise QB.

 

*  That Allen is a top 10 QB?  Again IMO there is no debate here.  He is a top 10 QB.  Now I also think he's a top 5 QB but that is a reasonable place for debate.

 

And for the record Allen didn't play poorly in the first two games.  He was average.  And if he's only average through an entire season then yes we have cause for concern.  But after two games there was no reason for anyone to get down on Allen and the offense.

 

 

 

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On 9/26/2021 at 5:18 PM, GoBills808 said:

For how talented WASH defensive line is, they had an astonishingly ineffectual gameplan to stop Allen, took some really bad angles and he just slips past

Agreed. Did they watch Allen tape at all? They allowed him to roll out and step up. He lives for that lol

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11 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I still chuckle at those who said 300 yards wasn’t a fair measuring stick what TT was playing here. 
 

 

 

 

Football Team :bag: is so proper 

 

who would want their location associated with it

 

😂

 

Chuckle huh??

 

I admit I kind of get annoyed at these overly-simplistic correlation/causation stats and the conclusions folks come to when we don't hit those.

 

I get annoyed only because it leads to those hoards of fairweather fans that lay too much offensive blame or success at the feet of Allen's passing stats ignoring the nuances of complimentary football and strategic game planning.

 

Last year we were ridiculously slanted towards a pass-first/pass-heavy offense with empty sets and most defenses tried to counter that by blitzing and bringing 5 rushers and playing a mix of zone and man behind that.

 

Allen had a lot of success passing against those defenses and the offense was clicking - finding success, completions, and our team was likely winning those games. 

 

Then defenses changed the way they played us. Rushing 4 and dropping everyone else into coverage and our offensive production stalled.

 

However, we won in lopsided fashion in Miami last week without Allen hitting the magic 300 yards, so how did that statistical outlier happen?

 

We did it operating out of 11 personnel, with hard running that extended drives and also found the end zone, and by playing complimentary football.

 

That 11 personnel run/pass balance strategy keeps defenses honest, slows down the pass rush giving Allen more time, forces them out of dropping 7 into shell coverage, keeps Allen upright, puts one more potential blocker in the backfield, helps extend drives and win the TOP stat, it also opens up play action for deeper shots.

 

If defensive coordinators have to account for the Bills run game, that makes this offense that much more effective down the stretch against those teams with better front 4's that stand between our Bills and a championship.

 

 

 

 

Edited by WideNine
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13 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:


Isn’t it so nice to have four solid guys at WR where you can always give one a rest with only a couple of any snaps in a week and you use the other three.  We are playing in the last two games more balanced football using the RB’s and Knox either in blocking or the occasional target.  It’s perfect and with the talent hard to defend.

 

Last year we went so much four wide, second only to AZ, I think that’s a mistake this year.  If I had to prioritize, I love 11 the most, 21 second, and 10 only when there is a clear advantage, but still keeping the RB in to chip and be the outlet.  Stay the hell away from empty sets.

Beane does an amazing job of identifying our weaknesses and quickly turning those weaknesses to strengths.  

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With all the grief we piled onto the o-line the first few weeks it is only fair to acknowledge when they elevate their game.

 

Pretty solid game all around - Williams draws some fierce pass rushers so a lot is riding on his play, but I felt he created space - often riding Sweat deep and out of the picture. Our interior o-line had a gritty performance and did a lot of unsung things both allowing Allen to step up and/or around the rush, and opening running lanes. Dawkins is gradually getting back to lockdown performance on Allen's blind side.

 

Not that they have not played hard or been effective individually here and there in fits and starts, but they needed to play much better as a unit and they did. 

 

Nice job guys.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Tom Donahoe, GM said:

Agreed. Did they watch Allen tape at all? They allowed him to roll out and step up. He lives for that lol

I said the same thing during the game. It’s like they had no idea that Allen likes to step up and roll to his right. Strange because you could tell Miami and Pittsburgh were focused on that.

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2 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

Chuckle huh??

 

I admit I kind of get annoyed at these overly-simplistic correlation/causation stats and the conclusions folks come to when we don't hit those.

 

I get annoyed only because it leads to those hoards of fairweather fans that lay too much offensive blame or success at the feet of Allen's passing stats ignoring the nuances of complimentary football and strategic game planning.

 

Last year we were ridiculously slanted towards a pass-first/pass-heavy offense with empty sets and most defenses tried to counter that by blitzing and bringing 5 rushers and playing a mix of zone and man behind that.

 

Allen had a lot of success passing against those defenses and the offense was clicking - finding success, completions, and our team was likely winning those games. 

 

Then defenses changed the way they played us. Rushing 4 and dropping everyone else into coverage and our offensive production stalled.

 

However, we won in lopsided fashion in Miami last week without Allen hitting the magic 300 yards, so how did that statistical outlier happen?

 

We did it operating out of 11 personnel, with hard running that extended drives and also found the end zone, and by playing complimentary football.

 

That 11 personnel run/pass balance strategy keeps defenses honest, slows down the pass rush giving Allen more time, forces them out of dropping 7 into shell coverage, keeps Allen upright, puts one more potential blocker in the backfield, helps extend drives and win the TOP stat, it also opens up play action for deeper shots.

 

If defensive coordinators have to account for the Bills run game, that makes this offense that much more effective down the stretch against those teams with better front 4's that stand between our Bills and a championship.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Allen was missing open throws he usually makes in that Miami game.  The wheel route to Singletary.  The interception to Diggs on the slant route.  Under throwing Sanders in the end zone.  All were do to poor mechanics. Chalking it up to a different game plan than usual shouldn’t let him off the hook.  Allen knows that and self corrected this week.

Edited by Doc Brown
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2 hours ago, WideNine said:

With all the grief we piled onto the o-line the first few weeks it is only fair to acknowledge when they elevate their game.

 

Pretty solid game all around - Williams draws some fierce pass rushers so a lot is riding on his play, but I felt he created space - often riding Sweat deep and out of the picture. Our interior o-line had a gritty performance and did a lot of unsung things both allowing Allen to step up and/or around the rush, and opening running lanes. Dawkins is gradually getting back to lockdown performance on Allen's blind side.

 

Not that they have not played hard or been effective individually here and there in fits and starts, but they needed to play much better as a unit and they did. 

 

Nice job guys.

 

 

 

Agree. Not sure why all the gloom and doom about the Bills Oline. It's only 3 games and last game was much improved. It's a long season and they should be very good come crunch time. 

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4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

What are you debating?

 

*  That Allen is or isn't a franchise QB?  IMO there is no debate here - he is the Bills franchise QB.

 

*  That Allen is a top 10 QB?  Again IMO there is no debate here.  He is a top 10 QB.  Now I also think he's a top 5 QB but that is a reasonable place for debate.

 

And for the record Allen didn't play poorly in the first two games.  He was average.  And if he's only average through an entire season then yes we have cause for concern.  But after two games there was no reason for anyone to get down on Allen and the offense.

 

 

 

Fair question. I wasnt debating if Allen is a franchise QB or a top tier QB. No doubt he is the future of the Bills. I'm glad he is the Bills QB. 

 

I was trying to say he may be regressing and used the last 2-4 games as examples, may not play up to last year's level, has a short sample of games that reflect greatness, and he did play poorly in the first 2 games.

 

Of course you and others disagree with much of my points. I'm ok with that. The counter arguments are valid but no means evidence that my points aren't correct. The evidence will be presented on the field. The Washington game certainly put a great dent into my points. No one is more happier about that then me. 

Edited by newcam2012
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32 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Allen was missing open throws he usually makes in that Miami game.  The wheel route to Singletary.  The interception to Diggs on the slant route.  Under throwing Sanders in the end zone.  All were do to poor mechanics. Chalking it up to a different game plan than usual shouldn’t let him off the hook.  Allen knows that and self corrected this week.

 

In the breakdown that Kubiak did of that game he explained how the slant to Diggs was likely a broken play based on how the oline was releasing and setting up for a screen and that likely caused the confusion and late delivery.

 

"It appeared that either Daboll had his left side of the line releasing for a screen to make the Dolphins defensive linemen react differently, or something else was crossed up on the play that made Allen hesitate on his delivery. "

 

I do recommend that folks give that Kubiak article a read before rushing to make judgements and dismissing the role of better game planning or understanding the smart, patient game Allen actually played.

 

Folks do still hyper-focus on every incomplete Allen pass - a habit fans got into early with how raw and inaccurate he was coming out of Wyoming and it continues today - heck I catch myself still doing it.

 

All QBs miss passes they should make...happens every week and even more so if they are forced off their spot and timing by pressures.

 

I think Bills fans are conditioned to expect failure and it is far easier to expect Allen and the franchise to crash back down to earth than to believe and accept that this franchise has turned the corner and finally found their QB.

 

This fragility of faith was on full display after week one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Fair question. I wasnt debating if Allen is a franchise QB or a top tier QB. No doubt he is the future of the Bills. I'm glad he is the Bills QB. 

 

I was trying to say he may be regressing and used the last 2-4 games as examples, may not play up to last year's level, has a short sample of games that reflect greatness, and he did play poorly in the first 2 games.

 

Of course you and others disagree with much of my points. I'm ok with that. The counter arguments are valid but no means evidence that my points aren't correct. The evidence will be presented on the field. The Washington game certainly put a great dent into my points. No one is more happier about that then me. 

Actually, your points are NOT correct. Ever.

 

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13 hours ago, vincec said:

I said the same thing during the game. It’s like they had no idea that Allen likes to step up and roll to his right. Strange because you could tell Miami and Pittsburgh were focused on that.

 

It's like that Seahawks game from last year where Carroll came out after the game and said he expected the Bills to run. Allen had the same performance that day as well. Carroll and Rivera are vet coaches, weird game plans against Allen.

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