Week 1: Steelers at Bills

[YoloinOhio]

4 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I don't know man. Player like him I would have had to do what it took to lock him in early way before it started to get to this. Too much of a game changer. 

The issue is the Steelers have a precedent on guaranteed money. It’s the same thing that happened with lev bell. And will happen with minkah. They do this “rolling guarantee” thing which isn’t really a guarantee. They will need to break precedent on either that, or negotiating into the season. I’m betting they cede on the latter, so that he will start practicing for week 1

[eball]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

OK I get all of that but lets cool it a little bit with Big Ben and his early season greatness

 

Agreed.  The "oh no, we're facing Fresh Ben" worry warts have become tiresome.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

The issue is the Steelers have a precedent on guaranteed money. It’s the same thing that happened with lev bell. And will happen with minkah. They do this “rolling guarantee” thing which isn’t really a guarantee. They will need to break precedent on either that, or negotiating into the season. I’m betting they cede on the latter, so that he will start practicing for week 1

Yeah that's what I'm saying, I would have probably tried to break that rule or find a way around it if possible

[RichRiderBills]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

I'm guessing from this response that you didn't actually read the post in this thread where I explained exactly why I think the Steelers will win this one. I listed EXACTLY why I think they take it: Good head coach who isn't going to take two straight losses to the Bills lightly, a fresher Big Ben, an improved running game with Najee Harris, a healthier defense than the Bills have face the last two times out, and the Bills players being too hyped up in front of the raucous crowd (a phenomenon we've seen before with this team). I listed at least as many and as valid a set of reasons for my prediction as you did for yours.

As for "guys like me"....again, not so sure you know what you're talking about here. I'm a pretty relentlessly optimistic person, and I said in that same post that I expect the Bills to win 12 or 13 games this year. Assuming you don't believe they'll win all 17 (which I do not), it seems reasonable and necessary to predict a loss every now and again. Predicting that one of said losses comes against a high quality head coach with a Hall of Fame quarterback isn't exactly ground-breaking stuff.

I'm not saying anyone has to agree with me -- I recognize that mine is the minority opinion. But to suggest that I didn't explain why I'm predicting a loss or that I'm some type of consistently negative poster is inaccurate and a poor characterization.

It's not. I believe the Bills will win 12 or 13 games this year and take the division. I just don't think they'll win all 17 games. 

 

Yep, and I'm saying these reasons are all very subjective hunchy fanspeak and not well crafted / articulated analysis. 

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Yep, and I'm saying these reasons are all very subjective hunchy fanspeak and not well crafted / articulated analysis. 

As opposed to your scientifically unimpeachable, not at all subjective or hunchy analysis?

 

Quote

 

"Its not that the Bills are invincible, but I just don't see it. Steelers Oline is really weak...new offensive coordinator / offensive system with stubborn old QB will be a recipe for disaster. I think the Bills defense will be improved and Big Ben behind this oline is a recipe for disaster.

 

Pitt is a regional rival we love to hate. Stadium will be rocking."

 

 

Nothing subjective or hunchy or fan-speak-y in there. Nope. MILES better than what I wrote. Very objective and well articulated 🙄

 

 

Edited September 7, 2021 by Logic

[maddenboy]

21 hours ago, buffalo2218 said:

Even if Watt does play, he's gonna have a ton of rust being a no show at TC. As good as he is, everything is pointing to him being out of game shape.

Watt's rust will balance out my irritation that we get BigBen in his first game, before his arm gets shot.

[Weatherman]

3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

That is an option.  You mentioned a Steeler fan and I got a "reasonable" one too.  That is all he talks about is the options for moving on.

He is a little pee'd off they keep holding on.

 

Getting back to the main game week thread he is also the guy to clued me in on not only their OL being a question mark but the CBs too.

He's not too confident the Steelers can keep up Sunday at all.  If Ben isn't looking playoff worthy he will be the first to let me know!

 

I think there is a decent chance they will let it go and tag him next year and wait to see what happens with the QB situation.

If they go to rebuild mode they trade him and use the 1st to get a QB.

 

They may be "fence sitting" on him.

Bills should offer the same packages the Bears gave Raiders for Mack.  It’s really the only piece besides TE that is missing on this roster.  Our rookies could be that piece but unlikely to mirror Watts output.  

Edited September 8, 2021 by Weatherman

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Solomon Grundy]

35 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Bills should offer the same packages he Beats gave Raiders for Mack.  It’s really the only piece besides TE that is missing on this roster.  Our rookies could be that piece but unlikely to mirror Watts output.  

I think you're gonna be pleasantly surprised by Groot

[BillsFan619]

7 hours ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

I think its a huge advantage for this season overall starting at home, I think it might take a game or at least a half to get used to the noise again. Being able to start at home and hear the noise but not be used against you should benefit the bills for their first road game the following week

I definitely hear what you’re saying.

 

But can you really say that the bills will face crowd noise down in Miami? Do Miami fans even know what crowd noise is? 😜🤣

[YoloinOhio]

 

[GreggTX]

I don't see this as an unusually high scoring game as the Steelers have an exceptional front 7 and our OL is pretty ordinary. Josh will need to be in top form. I just hope Levi Wallace can raise his game. Offenses will be looking to exploit him all year. Those young DE's will need to catch on quickly. Hughes and Addison are long in the tooth and have long since put their best years behind them. I see the Bills winning in a game that goes down to the wire.

[Blank Stare]

4 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

OK I get all of that but lets cool it a little bit with Big Ben and his early season greatness.

 

He played the Giants, Broncos and Texans last year to start the season.

He averaged 242 yards passing with 7 Passing TDs and 1 INT against teams with a combined season win total of 11.

 

Josh Allen started the with Jets, Dolphins and Rams.

He averaged 330 yards passing with 10 Passing TDs and 1 INT (plus 2 Rushing TDs) against teams with a combined season win total of 22.

 

I'm just giving a little perspective to both QBs starts last year.

Fair. I’m not meaning to suggest Ben is some juggernaut vs. someone who is almost at the end of his football journey. Only that, for someone with his age and health issues, one would assume that he’ll be feeling a lot better/healthier after a long off season of rest which (to me) makes him more dangerous. 

[Mat68]

Bills vs Steelers in September isn't the same as December.  Better weather more scoring imo.  I think Allen lights the Steelers secondary on fire.  Big Ben will have a live arm.  I think Buffalo win by 10 to 14 but in the 30’s and 20’s not 20’s and teens. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Interesting!

[Patrick Duffy]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

I'll be in the stands, screaming my head off and banging on the seats. I'm a little nervous about going, for obvious reasons, but life is short and I love the Bills, so here we are.

It's gonna be an absolutely insane game day atmosphere. Sometimes, this Bills roster comes out a little bit too hyped up in situations like this. As much as it will negatively affect the Steelers, it won't surprise me if it negatively affects the Bills a little bit, too, at least in the first quarter.

While I think the Bills will have a great season and win 12 or so games, I am picking the Steelers to steal one here.

The Bills have beaten them the last two times out, sure, but this game feels different to me. Duck Hodges will not be the quarterback. We will be seeing Roethlisberger right at the start of the season, rather than later in the season, meaning that his arm should be fresher. The Steelers defense will be healthier than the last couple times we played them -- even though Stephon Tuitt being out is a big blow. Najee Harris should add a dimension to their offense that it lacked last year.

At the end of the day, Mike Tomlin is a great coach, Big Ben is a Hall of Fame quarterback, they have a great corps of offensive playmakers, and their defense is likely to be elite. As previously mentioned, I also expect our guys to be a little too hyper in front of the raucous crowd.

Ultimately, the Bills win 12 or 13 games, but week 1 isn't one of them. Steelers 23, Bills 19

 

 

Just came across the post with reasons why you pick Steelers to win. I agree they have come out little too excited in some big situations like this at times. I feel like (least I hope) a lot of them have enough experience now to keep that in check.

 

I'm not concerned about the Ben being better since it's early and all that stuff. As to Harris, it depends how that OL does with the new guys and rookie C and LT. If they are struggling Harris won't do but so much, at least on the ground. 

 

I expect to likely see their OL have some issues with the noise and make some mistakes. I agree Tomlin is a excellent coach and will have them ready. But imo Bills will get hot at some point and pull away enough for a win 

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[fergie's ire]

4 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

OK I get all of that but lets cool it a little bit with Big Ben and his early season greatness.

 

He played the Giants, Broncos and Texans last year to start the season.

He averaged 242 yards passing with 7 Passing TDs and 1 INT against teams with a combined season win total of 11.

 

Josh Allen started the with Jets, Dolphins and Rams.

He averaged 330 yards passing with 10 Passing TDs and 1 INT (plus 2 Rushing TDs) against teams with a combined season win total of 22.

 

I'm just giving a little perspective to both QBs starts last year.

Sure...last year he played bad games to start, but you can only play the teams the schedule deals you.  But look at the year before.  He played the Patriots (a good defense) in week 1 and look what he did to them: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401127860 

[Patrick Duffy]

10 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

Sure...last year he played bad games to start, but you can only play the teams the schedule deals you.  But look at the year before.  He played the Patriots (a good defense) in week 1 and look what he did to them: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401127860 

I get it....that Pats game was 2 years ago and imo Big Ben isn't exactly aging like Tom Brady has/is lol. Not saying he can't throw all over Bills D because he is certainly capable. We'll see how much time he gets with the questionable and young OL this season.

[YoloinOhio]

I like this 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

I'll be in the stands, screaming my head off and banging on the seats. I'm a little nervous about going, for obvious reasons, but life is short and I love the Bills, so here we are.

It's gonna be an absolutely insane game day atmosphere. Sometimes, this Bills roster comes out a little bit too hyped up in situations like this. As much as it will negatively affect the Steelers, it won't surprise me if it negatively affects the Bills a little bit, too, at least in the first quarter.

While I think the Bills will have a great season and win 12 or so games, I am picking the Steelers to steal one here.

The Bills have beaten them the last two times out, sure, but this game feels different to me. Duck Hodges will not be the quarterback. We will be seeing Roethlisberger right at the start of the season, rather than later in the season, meaning that his arm should be fresher. The Steelers defense will be healthier than the last couple times we played them -- even though Stephon Tuitt being out is a big blow. Najee Harris should add a dimension to their offense that it lacked last year.

At the end of the day, Mike Tomlin is a great coach, Big Ben is a Hall of Fame quarterback, they have a great corps of offensive playmakers, and their defense is likely to be elite. As previously mentioned, I also expect our guys to be a little too hyper in front of the raucous crowd.

Ultimately, the Bills win 12 or 13 games, but week 1 isn't one of them. Steelers 23, Bills 19

 

This could happen. But it is equally plausible that the Bills win this game by 4 TD’s. We get a lead, pressure Ben (who has lost all mobility) , take Harris out of the game, and pour it on. 
 

I think the odds are probably somewhere in the middle of both extremes, more towards what the betting line is— Bills win by about 7-10 points. 

[billsherd]

Season Preview on right now on NFL Network.

[Blank Stare]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

Agreed.  The "oh no, we're facing Fresh Ben" worry warts have become tiresome.

Do you have no respect for Ben as a QB any more then? For the record, I think the Bills should win. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest Ben may be a slightly more effective QB earlier in the year. They started off 11-0 last year. It wasn’t all an accident. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Just bought tix. I just can't stay away.

Lots of seats just came down in price. Check nfl ticket exchange. 

[YattaOkasan]

3 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Do you have no respect for Ben as a QB any more then? For the record, I think the Bills should win. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest Ben may be a slightly more effective QB earlier in the year. They started off 11-0 last year. It wasn’t all an accident. 

It wasn’t all accident cause a lot of close games particularly against weaker teams. They played nfc east and afc south last year.  They had the look of paper tiger before they lost it all against the football team. They almost lost to Andy dalton in prime time. 

[Blank Stare]

35 minutes ago, billsherd said:

Season Preview on right now on NFL Network.

And, right on cue, they’ve wedged the Cowboys into most of the segments so far. Between that and the incessant Bucs commercials (“no risk it, no biscuit” “Boy the biscuit tastes really good”), I’m struggling to hang in there. 

[Stank_Nasty]

4 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Do you have no respect for Ben as a QB any more then? For the record, I think the Bills should win. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest Ben may be a slightly more effective QB earlier in the year. They started off 11-0 last year. It wasn’t all an accident. 

Do yourself a favor and go look at the teams and qb’s they faced during that start. Jeff driscal, Wentz, Daniel Jones, griffin, garret gilbert, Joe burrow,…. Jake freakin Lutton for god sakes. 
 

that team was a complete fraud and it showed up later. 

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

It wasn’t all accident cause a lot of close games particularly against weaker teams. They played nfc east and afc south last year.  They had the look of paper tiger before they lost it all against the football team. They almost lost to Andy dalton in prime time. 

It wasn’t even dalton. It was third stringer gilbert. 

[Blank Stare]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

It wasn’t all accident cause a lot of close games particularly against weaker teams. They played nfc east and afc south last year.  They had the look of paper tiger before they lost it all against the football team. They almost lost to Andy dalton in prime time. 

Oh, I agree. I think we can all agree they weren’t a strong 11-0 team who benefited from an easier schedule and good fortune. But earlier in the year, Ben was a more threatening passer than by the end. He was throwing almost nothing down the field later in the year. 

[Malazan]

The longer this TJ Watt thing goes on the better. 

[Blank Stare]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Do yourself a favor and go look at the teams and qb’s they faced during that start. Jeff driscal, Wentz, Daniel Jones, griffin, garret gilbert, Joe burrow,…. Jake freakin Lutton for god sakes. 
 

that team was a complete fraud and it showed up later. 

It wasn’t even dalton. It was third stringer gilbert. 

What does that have to do with how well Ben played at the start of the year vs the end? Ben doesn’t play the opposing QB. Do yourself a favor and go look at the stats. Ben was more effective at the beginning of the year than the end. Facts. Its completely disingenuous to suggest otherwise. 

Edited September 8, 2021 by TheProcess

[billsherd]

NFL Game day season preview with Rich and the crew have been pretty kind to bills so far.

[YattaOkasan]

4 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Oh, I agree. I think we can all agree they weren’t a strong 11-0 team who benefited from an easier schedule and good fortune. But earlier in the year, Ben was a more threatening passer than by the end. He was throwing almost nothing down the field later in the year. 

Sure I don’t think it’s wrong to say that. I question if it’s that big of an effect though. That’s what I thought you meant with the 11-0 comment. Seems like we both agree they werent strong 11-0 and Ben is better at the start. I just don’t think he’s that much better to make much of a difference. 

[HappyDays]

 

[The Wiz]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Honestly amazed it wasn't a zoom call with juju doing an interpretive dance to answer the questions. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Watt will play on Sunday and will make an impact.

[MasterStrategist]

First thing people need to do, is forget what we saw Pitt do the last 2 years against us, or what we did against them.

 

Much different team, new offensive coordinator and a healthier group (albeit Tuitt).

 

That said, Canada is all about winning on the "possession downs". Expect healthy dose of rushing attack/screens/check downs to Najee, playaction (which they never ran last 2 seasons), pre-snap motions (like our offense) and alot of 3-step drops.

 

We need to counter by being aggressive, jamming their WRs (which has been an emphasis with our secondary this TC) and get Juju and Claypool frustrated, and keep Najee in check.  Blitzing on early downs to keep the sticks in our favor for 3rd downs.  Then stunt like crazy against that young oline on 3rd, try to overload/zone blitz and make their o-line confused.  Ben is good for holding that ball out 1-2x a game for a strip sack, need to take advantage of that.

 

Then offensively, find a way to keep Hayward out of the backfield and keep ourselves out of 3rd and long (their exotic/slot blitzes).  They are susceptible to the deep pass and think Sanders/Beas are I store for a potentially huge game (100 yr each).  I think they will try and bracket Diggs, but not sure it will matter he will get his touches.

 

Prediction: Bills-30 Steelers -20.  McKenzie breaks a long punt return (no Td, but 30+) and Edmunds tips a pass into the waiting arms of Hyde

[billsherd]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Hopefully Watt doesn't come angry to cause havoc, with a point to make to the front office.

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

What does that have to do with how well Ben played at the start of the year vs the end? Ben doesn’t play the opposing QB. Do yourself a favor and go look at the stats. Ben was more effective at the beginning of the year than the end. Facts. Its completely disingenuous to suggest otherwise. 

My point was it seemed you try to fall back on their record as an argument that Ben was significantly better the first part of the year. I would argue the teams they played had much more to do with that record than his slightly better play. 
 

 

[Blank Stare]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Sure I don’t think it’s wrong to say that. I question if it’s that big of an effect though. That’s what I thought you meant with the 11-0 comment. Seems like we both agree they werent strong 11-0 and Ben is better at the start. I just don’t think he’s that much better to make much of a difference. 

Fair take. I’m not saying he’ll come out looking like the Ben of old. He’s definitely getting close to the end. To a competitor, particularly at the most elite level of the sport, when you’re questioned all off season about whether you’re washed, I’m only saying I think we’ll get his best on Sunday. What his best actually is at this stage of his career is completely up for debate.

Seems I’m on the slightly more optimistic end of that than most on here. Which is all completely fair. Best part is, we’ll all find out on Sunday. Believe me, I hope he face plants and throws 4 picks and we roll, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he plays well and it’s a close game. 

Just now, Stank_Nasty said:

My point was it seemed you try to fall back on their record as an argument that Ben was significantly better the first part of the year. I would argue the teams they played had much more to do with that record than his slightly better play. 
 

 

Fair. I probably didn’t word it all that great. So that’s on me. 

[billsherd]

32 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

And, right on cue, they’ve wedged the Cowboys into most of the segments so far. Between that and the incessant Bucs commercials (“no risk it, no biscuit” “Boy the biscuit tastes really good”), I’m struggling to hang in there. 

Did you have your biscuit or did you risk it? So when did this start with the BUCS? Hearing it first time today.