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Are you scared of the CAP?


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We do have a team that was 13-3 last season and most of the guys are back.  There’s no need to be restructuring all these big contracts we currently have and pushing money down the road to future years when Beane has to pay Allen and Diggs very shortly.  Sign a depth guy or two then draft well.  

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32 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

Because the CAP is meaningless - they should not be afraid of the money and Fisher could come back and be their savior.

 

They cut them because the 2 players are not worth the contract at this point

 

Fisher couldn't come back and be the saviour. That is the point. And Schwartz's back might be done, hence his market has been very slow. 

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It is true the salary cap can often be manipulated, and room can be made to fit certain contracts.

GMs do this by either asking a player for a pay cut, or restructuring and pushing the cap-hit into later years.

 

The problem is, eventually players stop being willing to take pay cuts.  They want the money they earned.

And eventually players reach an age where you simply can't push their cap hits into later seasons.  

That's when you are forced to start releasing/cutting players, and the quality of your team takes a serious hit.

 

////////

 

Some fans seem upset that Kansas City is able to be a player in Free Agency this year.  But let's take a closer look.

The Chiefs were forced to cut both starting tackles (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz).  They have a half dozen free agents who started double-digit games last year, who they cannot re-sign (Sammy Watkins, DeMarcus Robinson, Austin Reiter, Bashaud Breeland, Damien Wilson, Tanoh Kpassagnon).  They have also made contract restructures for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones.

 

Yes, they were able to get Joe Thuney in free agency.  But his cap hit will only be $5 million this year.  Next year's it will be over $17 million.  Next year, the cap hit on Mahomes goes from $7 million to $35 million (and his current contract already goes to age 37, so restructuring is going to be difficult).  Jones' hit goes from $8 million to $29 million.  Kelce's hit goes from $5 million to $9 million.  

 

This offseason, the Chiefs are going to be forced to replace some solid/fringe starters and depth across the roster.  They still have key pieces, so they should still be among the Super Bowl favorites.  But by 2022, they will be forced to make some hard decisions about guys like Tyreek Hill and Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathiu.  They won't be able to keep everybody.  And that's when the teams nipping at their heels right now (like the Bills) will have a perfect opportunity to overtake them.

 

//////////

 

Bottom line.  You can be a team that pushes all of its chips into the middle of the table (like the Bucs, Chiefs or Rams), and mortgages future years to win a Super Bowl now.  There is absolutely nothing wrong with that strategy, and sometimes it works.  But eventually the bill comes due, and you will be forced to rebuild the roster from the ground-up.  A good example is Seattle, where they are currently struggling to rebuild a contender around Russell Wilson.

 

My feeling is that Brandon Beane wants a team like the Patriots, Steelers or Packers.  A team that can be a consistent winner and Super Bowl contender for the duration of their franchise QB's career.  These teams usually build through the draft, and then use free agent dollars to retain their own.  Or they wait for the bargains to come around after the first wave of free agency is over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

This is just plain stupid - If KC was not afraid of the cap why did they get rid of their 2 tackles without replacements.  Because they freed up Cap space to sign others - while both being injured for next season.
 

Why did they not sign Trent Williams like you said - oh because at some point it costs more than the players worth.  They must be a little scared of the CAP or you go higher to get the guy you want.

 

Why didn’t they sign Hunter Henry or Smith to supplement the TE position, Why didn’t they sign a quality WR as they really could use talent at WR as was shown in the SB.  
 

At some point every team has to make Cap related decisions - the question is how much do you want to push to the future and how much do you want to get out of the way.  KC has been ok for several years (prior to Mahomes), but never way over spent.  It became a thing in KC once they paid the QB and got a structure from the deal that they could manipulate.  The best team in this salary cap era is NE and they rarely got into salary cap jail - which kept them good for a long, long time.  The Saints should have been that successful, but their CAP management was terrible and they kept pushing bonuses to the future until bam they have to do stupid deals that will hurt the team going forward.

 

Beane is not adverse to borrowing from the future, but he is trying to balance that out so you become a contender for a long time.  The Mahomes restructure is nice one year - just pushes the money forward a bit, but then if they do it again and again eventually that dead CAP will cost you 3-4 players.  His deal already cost you OL depth and a 2nd SB.  Now it looks like it is costing you OL and WR talent.

 

 

Um ... Fisher was going to be out for the season in the final year of his contract, and Schwartz has a major back issue. Back injuries for big men are bad news. As for Fisher, he is literally worth zero dollars in the final year of his contract. Only a fool wouldn’t cut him.

Edited by dave mcbride
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7 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

It is true the salary cap can often be manipulated, and room can be made to fit certain contracts.

GMs do this by either asking a player for a pay cut, or restructuring and pushing the cap-hit into later years.

 

The problem is, eventually players stop being willing to take pay cuts.  They want the money they earned.

And eventually players reach an age where you simply can't push their cap hits into later seasons.  

That's when you are forced to start releasing/cutting players, and the quality of your team takes a serious hit.

 

////////

 

Some fans seem upset that Kansas City is able to be a player in Free Agency this year.  But let's take a closer look.

The Chiefs were forced to cut both starting tackles (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz).  They have a half dozen free agents who started double-digit games last year, who they cannot re-sign (Sammy Watkins, DeMarcus Robinson, Austin Reiter, Bashaud Breeland, Damien Wilson, Tanoh Kpassagnon).  They have also made contract restructures for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones.

 

Yes, they were able to get Joe Thuney in free agency.  But his cap hit will only be $5 million this year.  Next year's it will be over $17 million.  Next year, the cap hit on Mahomes goes from $7 million to $35 million (and his current contract already goes to age 37, so restructuring is going to be difficult).  Jones' hit goes from $8 million to $29 million.  Kelce's hit goes from $5 million to $9 million.  

 

This offseason, the Chiefs are going to be forced to replace some solid/fringe starters and depth across the roster.  They still have key pieces, so they should still be among the Super Bowl favorites.  But by 2022, they will be forced to make some hard decisions about guys like Tyreek Hill and Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathiu.  They won't be able to keep everybody.  And that's when the teams nipping at their heels right now (like the Bills) will have a perfect opportunity to overtake them.

 

//////////

 

Bottom line.  You can be a team that pushes all of its chips into the middle of the table (like the Bucs, Chiefs or Rams), and mortgages future years to win a Super Bowl now.  There is absolutely nothing wrong with that strategy, and sometimes it works.  But eventually the bill comes due, and you will be forced to rebuild the roster from the ground-up.  A good example is Seattle, where they are currently struggling to rebuild a contender around Russell Wilson.

 

My feeling is that Brandon Beane wants a team like the Patriots, Steelers or Packers.  A team that can be a consistent winner and Super Bowl contender for the duration of their franchise QB's career.  These teams usually build through the draft, and then use free agent dollars to retain their own.  Or they wait for the bargains to come around after the first wave of free agency is over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What if i told you the Patriots are really bad at drafting and have been for a long time.

 

Seattle will be back in the Playoffs and be a contender as long as they have Russ.

 

The Saints were 112 million over the cap.

They were over the Cap when the signed Jarius Byrd.

 

teams do it all the time.

 

The Bills could free up 30 Million in the blink of an eye.

the Cap is a thing, but anyone who is afraid of it is silly, IMO.

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18 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Um ... Fisher was going to be out for the season in the final year of his contract, and Schwartz has a major back issue. Back injuries for big men are bad news. As for Fisher, he is literally worth zero dollars in the final year of his contract. Only a fool wouldn’t cut him.


 

Totally agree with this - I am saying if the CAP was meaningless and KC was not afraid of it - there would be no reason to make those moves.  KC also would have gone out and signed several other players to improve the team across the board.  Adjusting Mahomes contract does not show a lack of fear of the CAP - it shows that they are evaluating needs and what they are willing to spend - same as every team.

 

The idea that everyone is afraid of the CAP because we have not gone out and restructured everyone is wrong.

 

It will be interesting - What do people expect the CAP to be next year - assuming things are 100% back to normal.  

 

 Let’s say the CAP rises to what it was expected to be this year (pre COVID) about 210 million.  The NFL CAP would have been under 160 Million this year without the adjustments.  If the NFL moves 15 million of the lost cap space off from next year - the CAP next year is back to 2019 levels at 195 million.  If they decide to recoup it all in 1 year the Cap next year could be nearly flat to this year.

 

Everyone is making assumptions about how much the CAP will rise and until we get the actual numbers teams should be smart about pushing excessive amounts of money into next year.  2023 with the new deals should provide the huge growth, but next years CAP is still in flux.

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What I'm concerned with, is the way Robert Kraft can skirt the rules and defy the principle of the cap and still get away with it. He's the Boogeyman in this scenario. He does it while the other owners kiss his ring.

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I’ve almost never been scared... least of all about pro football... 

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There is a happy medium.  Really gotta prep for Allen's payday (hopefully).  

 

This particular season is very restrictive as everyone knows.

 

Also, going heavy-handed in FA rarely works out.  Cycling good drafting/coaching with smart decisions letting the correct players walk at the right time is the key.

 

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59 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

What if i told you the Patriots are really bad at drafting and have been for a long time.

 

The Patriots are not really bad at drafting.

They aren't as good as their reputation, but Belichick did a solid job of keeping a good enough team around Tom Brady.  

He almost never splurged on free agents, which is the point I was trying to make.

 

59 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Seattle will be back in the Playoffs and be a contender as long as they have Russ.

 

Is Seattle a serious Super Bowl contender though?  I'm not so sure.  

Russell Wilson is frustrated and complaining that the Seahawks can't give him a decent O-Line, and the defense is trash.

The best players on the team outside of Wilson (Jamal Adams and DK Metcalf) are still on rookie contracts.  

 

They have no space this season to add players, which is exactly my point.  They are in the prime of Wilson's career and can't upgrade the roster around him enough to give them a serious shot at the Super Bowl.

 

59 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

The Saints were 112 million over the cap.

They were over the Cap when the signed Jarius Byrd.

 

Have you seen the list of players the Saints were forced to release?  They completely gutted the team to get back to zero.

 

New Orleans has a reputation of being constantly good, but after their 2009 Super Bowl year, they had multiple 7-9 seasons where they missed the playoffs.  Look at the 2012, 2014-2016 seasons.  They totally wasted Drew Brees in his prime for those years.  Why?  Because they had to reconstruct the roster to makeup for their cap problems.  Byrd's stupid contract was a major reason for that.

 

They were ultimately able to rebuild (mostly through the draft), then make one more 4-year run before Brees called it quits.

Was it worth it?  They never won another Super Bowl. 

 

 

59 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

teams do it all the time.

 

The Bills could free up 30 Million in the blink of an eye.

the Cap is a thing, but anyone who is afraid of it is silly, IMO.

 

Sure they could.  And maybe they still will.

But there are long-term consequences.  And maybe Beane believes throwing $10 million per year at Carl Lawson isn't worth the player(s) it will cost him 2-4 years down the line.

 

 

 

 

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The cap isn't completely meaningless, but I do think Bills fans assign way too much importance to it. You can look around the NFL and see many teams doing creative things to get around the cap. 

 

The Saints have been in cap hell for multiple years now. During that time they've been one of the best teams in the league, and a perennial super bowl contender (no SB appearances, but they've had brutal playoff losses). Have they really had to pay for manipulating the cap? If they have I'm not seeing it. 

 

Teams will sometimes go into a year realizing they won't be competitive and decide to bite the bullet on bad contracts (see: 2018 Buffalo Bills ). We didn't HAVE to eat 30mm in dead cap by trading away Dareus, Glenn, and Taylor, but we CHOSE to do that to give us more of an advantage in 2019.

 

Teams are only punished by the cap when they chose to be. 

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1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

We do have a team that was 13-3 last season and most of the guys are back.  There’s no need to be restructuring all these big contracts we currently have and pushing money down the road to future years when Beane has to pay Allen and Diggs very shortly.  Sign a depth guy or two then draft well.  

I agree with you mostly, but it's also very likely the salary cap is going to explode in the next few years. Is it savvy to play off that idea (like Bill Belichick seems to be doing) or savvy to hedge your bets? I'm not going to claim I know the answer. I'm no capologist, but from my vantage, it seems we're nowhere near the dangerous ledges the Saints and Falcons and others have put themselves on and we can probably afford a couple restructures to get a bargain-with-upside DE, CB2, TE. I'd avoid RB, b/c free agent RBs are so rarely worth their price and their success can so often be a part of the offense they are in more than some positions. 

 

One of the restructures could even incorporate Diggs' raise for 2022 and beyond. Furthermore, I suspect the clauses for Dawkins and White are there for that reason. Barring something terrible happening, we will still want them around at the end of their contract. 

 

That said, I'm also fine with rolling with the current roster. We were indeed 13-3 and a game away from the Super Bowl and I've never bought into the idea you should play to beat one other team. They don't have many (if any) glaring holes (pass rush was not great but not as awful as people think--we were middle of the pack on sacks and many analysts pointed out we were actually pretty good at winning our blocks), and a lot of young players who are likely to step up next year (Oliver and Edmunds are likely nowhere near their ceiling). 

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2 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Bills fans are a bit frugal when it comes to analysis. It has nothing to do with their history. It’s because their team is currently paying Mario Addison, star lotulolei, and Aj Klein a large percentage of the cap. 

Well those players are getting more than I would have imagined before hand. I recall seeing their #'s and was pretty surprised at the amount they got. Definitely more than I would have predicted then. 

 

At least Klein showed some promise after a few bad games. He really redeemed himself and played well. 

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As for the OP, lol at "scared of the cap". I know you mean "worried" instead of "scared" I suppose. Anyway, speaking for myself, I'm not really scared of anything or anyone, however I do respect things. Like I'm not scared of a tornado, but I damn sure respect it.

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1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

The cap isn't completely meaningless, but I do think Bills fans assign way too much importance to it. You can look around the NFL and see many teams doing creative things to get around the cap. 

 

The Saints have been in cap hell for multiple years now. During that time they've been one of the best teams in the league, and a perennial super bowl contender (no SB appearances, but they've had brutal playoff losses). Have they really had to pay for manipulating the cap? If they have I'm not seeing it. 

 

Teams will sometimes go into a year realizing they won't be competitive and decide to bite the bullet on bad contracts (see: 2018 Buffalo Bills ). We didn't HAVE to eat 30mm in dead cap by trading away Dareus, Glenn, and Taylor, but we CHOSE to do that to give us more of an advantage in 2019.

 

Teams are only punished by the cap when they chose to be. 

 

I mentioned the Saints in another thread.

They won the Super Bowl back in 2009, right when the team started to hit its stride.  For the most part, they were able to keep the core of that team together for about 4 years.  Then the big contracts started catching up, and the salary cap started becoming a bigger issue.  It started with them letting defensive talent go.  But then started trickling over to the O-Line and receivers.

 

In 2014, 2015 and 2016, the Saints were NOT a very good team.  They went 7-9 every season in that stretch, and Drew Brees was pretty much carrying the roster by himself.  Bills fans only remember them being able to steal Jairus Byrd from us, despite being tight on the cap.  They don't remember the other players the Saints had to let go of, or that Byrd was released at the mid-point of his deal.  

 

Don't let yourself be fooled.  The stupid contracts that New Orleans handed out in 2010-2014 (like Byrd) were the ones that killed their roster.

 

The Saints eventually dug themselves out of cap hell by doing things like trading Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks for draft picks, instead of paying them the big bucks.  They also did a fantastic job of drafting.  The 2016 class was good.  And the 2017 class was one of the best draft classes I've seen in the last decade.  Those picks were the foundation for them rebuilding the roster, and putting together 4 more strong seasons before Drew Brees ended up retiring.  Now the cap has caught up again, and they are being forced to start over.

 

Was it worth it?  Who knows.

If the Saints had been wiser with their cap dollars, maybe they wouldn't have had that 3-year drop-off from 2014-2016.  
 

 

 

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There is a cap no matter what GMs can do to get around it short term.

The Bills are in great shape and I'm sure Beane knows it more than us.

Almost all of the Playoff Caliber Teams right now have multiple players on "restructure" contracts and the Bills have none.

 

The RISK when restructuring too many payers beyond the backloading of guarantees is that these high "Dead Cap"

players better perform!  If you got to get rid of them for whatever reason it results in too much of dead money which

everyone can acknowledge is not a good thing.  We had a DT a few years back that's a perfect example.

 

The Eagles for instance have 11 players on restructures AND a $40M Dead Cap this year.

But the easiest way IMO to judge if a team has overused this technique is to look at how much total Dead Money the current players have.

Eagles have A LOT.  Bills not so much and almost half that they do have is in 3 players (Tre, Dion and Matt), young players who are

in the core of the team.  One thing you don't want is a lot of potential dead money on old players!

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2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

I mentioned the Saints in another thread.

They won the Super Bowl back in 2009, right when the team started to hit its stride.  For the most part, they were able to keep the core of that team together for about 4 years.  Then the big contracts started catching up, and the salary cap started becoming a bigger issue.  It started with them letting defensive talent go.  But then started trickling over to the O-Line and receivers.

 

In 2014, 2015 and 2016, the Saints were NOT a very good team.  They went 7-9 every season in that stretch, and Drew Brees was pretty much carrying the roster by himself.  Bills fans only remember them being able to steal Jairus Byrd from us, despite being tight on the cap.  They don't remember the other players the Saints had to let go of, or that Byrd was released at the mid-point of his deal.  

 

Don't let yourself be fooled.  The stupid contracts that New Orleans handed out in 2010-2014 (like Byrd) were the ones that killed their roster.

 

The Saints eventually dug themselves out of cap hell by doing things like trading Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks for draft picks, instead of paying them the big bucks.  They also did a fantastic job of drafting.  The 2016 class was good.  And the 2017 class was one of the best draft classes I've seen in the last decade.  Those picks were the foundation for them rebuilding the roster, and putting together 4 more strong seasons before Drew Brees ended up retiring.  Now the cap has caught up again, and they are being forced to start over.

 

Was it worth it?  Who knows.

If the Saints had been wiser with their cap dollars, maybe they wouldn't have had that 3-year drop-off from 2014-2016.  
 

 

 

 

The Saints are an interesting case study. You can point to the '14-'16 seasons and say they were bad because they mishandled the cap. You can also make the opposite point and look to the '17-'20 seasons to say that being in cap hell doesn't matter. They've had a minimum of 20mm dead cap in every season since 2017, BUT they've had the best regular season record over that time. Kicking the can down the road did not hurt them the last 4 years. 

 

Trading away Graham and Cooks didn't help with their cap situation. Trading players away results in dead cap (they incurred 9mm dead cap when they traded Graham). Those were still good trades and good decisions, but it did not help with cap hell. 

 

Has the cap really caught up to the Saints in 2021? Or, with Brees retiring, are they essentially punting on this season to position themselves for success in 2022? 

 

There's an accounting concept about this called taking a "big bath". Companies take as many losses as they can in 1 year so their future earnings look better. NFL teams use the same concept (like the Bills did in 2018). 

 

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6 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

We do have a team that was 13-3 last season and most of the guys are back.  There’s no need to be restructuring all these big contracts we currently have and pushing money down the road to future years when Beane has to pay Allen and Diggs very shortly.  Sign a depth guy or two then draft well.  

 

I disagree, you have a 13-3 team with a QB. Sell out and win a SB, its all about the SB. You want to be a bridesmaid not a bride? Yeah right.

 

NFL is not structured for dynasties, IMO get what you need and win the big one. Trade the #1 pick for Mack and restructure his contract to make it fit. Tomorrow is not the day to live today is.

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Lots of good discussion here.....I did not intend for this to be about what KC does or how they opperate.  I was asking YOU ALL...because of what I've seen around here....cap worry....especially when it involves Allens upcoming deal.  (KC FANS WERE NO DIFFERENT before Mahoems signed) 

 

I had forgotten the dark day when the Bills let go of Bruce Smith and Thurman Thomas due to the "cap".   

 

KC also used to have alot of the same conditioning from the top when Lamar was still alive and Carl Petersen was running things....I can't tell you how many times Carl Petersen would say "Cash and Cap Dollars" in a press conference...it was maddening.  

 

Anyhow...I was asking to legitmately ask and see what people thought....and many of you answered....lots of good thoughts here about the topic.

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5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

See: Whaley, Doug (and the mess that Brandon Beane inherited and spent years to dig himself out of)

Years?

 

You mean one year of high dead cap and then it was done.

 

The salary cap is going to be 260 million in three-five years.

 

Stop worrying. 

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9 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Years?

 

You mean one year of high dead cap and then it was done.

 

The salary cap is going to be 260 million in three-five years.

 

Stop worrying. 

 

What you, me, and anyone else think's doesn't matter. It's what Beane thinks and how he operates. And not spending to the cap and hampering yourself in the future is something he has been about and has talked about since day one. And he's done a pretty good job as a whole with that mindset. Sorry it's not as fun for you this offseason.

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Beane just re-signed three players we "couldn't afford" to very team-friendly deals and picked up a FA backup QB, who could very well be the 2nd best QB in our division, for peanuts.

 

Nah - I'm not afraid of the cap.

 

 

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17 hours ago, MJS said:

I think you are a little spoiled by your QB on a rookie deal. Kansas City WILL start feeling it sooner or later once that contract kicks in.

You’re the same guy who just said this about Josh...

7 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think he'll take a discount. 30 to 35 million per.

I’m not sure you understand how this all works.

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5 minutes ago, Billl said:

You’re the same guy who just said this about Josh...

I’m not sure you understand how this all works.

Do you have some kind of problem with what I said?

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Just now, MJS said:

Do you have some kind of problem with what I said?

Not a problem, I just find it amusing that you think Josh is going to leave $100,000,000 on the table whereas Mahomes’s incredibly team friendly deal is going to be some sort of albatross.

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1 minute ago, Billl said:

Not a problem, I just find it amusing that you think Josh is going to leave $100,000,000 on the table whereas Mahomes’s incredibly team friendly deal is going to be some sort of albatross.

I gave a hot take. If you have a problem with my guess, take it up with my agent.

 

My guess is just as valid as the darts everyone else is throwing at the wall.

 

What's your guess? You know, so I can reply and laugh at how off it is when the real contract comes out.

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Just now, MJS said:

I gave a hot take. If you have a problem with my guess, take it up with my agent.

 

My guess is just as valid as the darts everyone else is throwing at the wall.

 

What's your guess? You know, so I can reply and laugh at how off it is when the real contract comes out.

I’ll venture somewhere around 6 years and $270,000,000 with $150,000,000 guaranteed.  Dak just got $40,000,000 AAV.  No chance Allen takes 75% of that.  Nearly no chance he takes only 100% of that.

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11 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

If you put an L after the C.....I'm definitely afraid of that.

Yeah, McD got a lot of grief for that McClappy stuff! You don’t want that

 

That’s what you meant, right?

 

Or........ maybe you should be more concerned about your vision.......🤷‍♂️

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21 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

If you put an L after the C.....I'm definitely afraid of that.

 

A little penicillin  will clear that right up.

 

(... or so I've been told.)

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