Joe B article speculates John Brown will be cut

[C.Biscuit97]

Brown was absolutely amazing his first year here. But he has really only had two good seasons in his career. When you get good, you have to make tough decisions. For his price, I think you have to let him good. I think injuries are going to be a major concern as he gets older and he is is similar to Diggs size wise than I want to see what Davis does with more chances. 
 

it sucks but with Davis and possibly more FAs who might take less now that Allen has established himself, it shouldn’t be that big of a loss. 

[dave mcbride]

19 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think WR and RB are very system-driven positions.  WR depend upon the QB, and both QB and RB effectiveness depend upon the OL.

 

I can agree that there has to be a criteria, like "last 3 seasons" "only seasons in this system" or it looks kind of cherry-picky

 

 

I odn't think that's a good argument.  Completion % is passes caught/passes thrown.  One point to consider is that the Bills ranked only #15 in the league for # of offensive plays with 1034.  #1 is the LA Chargers with 1127, 90 more plays.  For the sake of argument, if those are pass plays, 69% completion would be 62 additional receptions.

 

Crosscheck: the Bills were actually #11 for passing attempts with 596.  #1 was Pittsburgh with 656, or 60 additional pass attempts.  Again at 69% completions, that would be 41 additional passes. 

 

So there are probably more completions out there without invoking new records or anything.  And that's not even addressing plays lost to penalties.

 

I don't quite understand the "68 passes in a full season" argument, but Brown caught 33 passes in 9 games, which would project (in my math) out to 58 receptions in a 16 game season, or 25 additional receptions. 

 

So, if you're looking for 25 additional receptions, they could come from having 60 additional offensive plays (due to converting more 1st downs), of which in a  60% pass ratio 36 would be pass plays and 69% completion would mean 25 additional receptions.

 

I'm not arguing that's probable, just pointing out that it isn't, logically speaking, the "zero sum game" you're portraying where more receptions for Brown mean fewer receptions for Diggs, Beasley and Davis or that Brown's catch % would have to rise or anything

 

 

Hapless — he came out (injury) in the first half of the rams game, missed most of the fourth quarter of the AZ game (injury again), and didn’t play in the second half of the miami game. Hence my estimation of 8 games.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Hapless — he came out (injury) in the first half of the rams game, missed most of the fourth quarter of the AZ game (injury again), and didn’t play in the second half of the miami game. Hence my estimation of 8 games.

 

Dave, I think one kind of has to count games where the guy is active and plays....I mean, if he's active and plays, it means someone else who might contribute is inactive.

[dave mcbride]

On 2/6/2021 at 10:37 AM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The Bills system he's playing in now is a far cry from the 2019 Bills system.  No Diggs who replaced Jones and Foster as the #2.

 

So agree context does matter, makes it easy to cherry pick.

The catch rates were effectively the same in 2019 and 2020, so what you’re saying doesn’t really matter. As a Buffalo Bill over two seasons with the same OC and the same QB, his catch rate has been the same. And if you want to do a really deep dive, bear in mind that his worst season in this regard by far, 2017 (38.2 percent), Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert started most of the games. They are bad qbs, and they were running a Bruce Arians offense that pushes the ball downfield. Stanton completed under 50 percent of his passes and Gabbert was at 55.6. Also, prior to Jackson becoming the QB in mid-late 2018, he had caught 34 balls on 67 throws. Granted, that’s barely above 50 percent, but he was also averaging 9 yards per pass attempt (601 yards on 67 throws), which is awesome. 
 

Afterward, Jackson targeted him 29 times and completed only 6 passes (a 21 percent catch rate). 
 

Anyway, context -- the qb, the system, etc. -- matters. 
 

Again, though, I agree with you that he probably will not be back. 

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dave, I think one kind of has to count games where the guy is active and plays....I mean, if he's active and plays, it means someone else who might contribute is inactive.

If he is out because of injury he stops being active. It’s not like he’s not getting snaps or not being targeted. He can’t play, simply put. If a player starts and goes down on the first play because of injury, it seems ridiculous to me to say that he played the game. He didn’t. Yet the stat sheet will say he played that game. Brown was functionally inactive for over a half vs. the Rams and most of a quarter vs. AZ. He wasn't hurt vs. Miami, but he didn’t play after halftime (presumably because they were concerned about re-injury). 

Edited February 7, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The catch rates were effectively the same in 2019 and 2020, so what you’re saying doesn’t really matter. As a Buffalo Bill over two seasons with the same OC and the same QB, his catch rate has been the same. And if you want to do a really deep dive, bear in mind that his worst season in this regard by far, 2017 (38.2 percent), Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert started most of the games. They are bad qbs, and they were running a Bruce Arians offense that pushes the ball downfield. Stanton completed under 50 percent of his passes and Gabbert was at 55.6. Also, prior to Jackson becoming the QB in mid-late 2018, he had caught 34 balls on 67 throws. Granted, that’s barely above 50 percent, but he was also averaging 9 yards per pass attempt (601 yards on 67 throws), which is awesome. 
 

Afterward, Jackson targeted him 29 times and completed only 6 passes (a 21 percent catch rate). 
 

Anyway, context -- the qb, the system, etc. -- matters. 
 

Again, though, I agree with you that he probably will not be back.

 

Good points about Brown's production, when he played.  The question is: can you count on him to even stay as healthy as he did this past season?

[BillsCuse]

31 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Good points about Brown's production, when he played.  The question is: can you count on him to even stay as healthy as he did this past season?

He was dealing with a high ankle sprain, that takes time to get better and can linger.  I dont think that he should be labeled as injury prone just because of that - has been pretty healthy otherwise.

[Doc]

Just now, BillsCuse said:

He was dealing with a high ankle sprain, that takes time to get better and can linger.  I dont think that he should be labeled as injury prone just because of that - has been pretty healthy otherwise.

 

I don't disagree.  But he's on the wrong side of 30 and with a high cap number.  I'd rather make a change a little early than a little late.

[BillsCuse]

Agree, I think he needs to take a pay cut or be cut.  Just dont think his injury should be part of the decision.

[thenorthremembers]

10 hours ago, Mountain Man said:

Makes no sense. The reason you cut Brown is to free up essential space. 

Right essential space to sign better and younger talent.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, BillsCuse said:

Agree, I think he needs to take a pay cut or be cut.  Just dont think his injury should be part of the decision.

 

Injury should be, given his age.  If he were younger, I agree it shouldn't.

[97bills]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Brown was absolutely amazing his first year here. But he has really only had two good seasons in his career. When you get good, you have to make tough decisions. For his price, I think you have to let him good. I think injuries are going to be a major concern as he gets older and he is is similar to Diggs size wise than I want to see what Davis does with more chances. 
 

it sucks but with Davis and possibly more FAs who might take less now that Allen has established himself, it shouldn’t be that big of a loss. 

I don’t think it’s a big loss we played almost all year without him

[Chicken Boo]

15 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

You are aware that there is an expected decrease in Cap space around the League this off season? This is a bad year to be hitting the FA market if he is cut ...

 

Oh yeah.  Good point.

[Matt_In_NH]

On 2/5/2021 at 6:05 PM, Charles Romes said:

A healthy Kenny Stills in 21 will easily outperform John Brown’s 2020. Thank you for the career year 2019 John Brown.  Critical for Josh’s development. 

Kenny Stills is a UFA.  And we can say the same thing about Brown, a healthy John Brown in 21 will easily outperform John Brown's 2020.  

[dave mcbride]

7 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Good points about Brown's production, when he played.  The question is: can you count on him to even stay as healthy as he did this past season?

That I don’t know. The Bills know far more than any of us.

[Doc]

20 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

That I don’t know. The Bills know far more than any of us.

 

Even they don't/can't know. 

[Franchiseneedsme]

If cutting him saves 8M and with the tight cap, And FA wr prob aren't getting top dollar, I would like the Bills to cut Brown and add another Stud WR. Like Allen Robinson or Kenny Golliday at 12M.  Diggs is a stud, and Beasley is a great slot guy. But Josh needs another True  weapon. Think Diggs, Robinson, Beasley, and draft N Harris.  Now that is a better offense for only 2-3M more than we pay now.  If the Bills really are going to Pay Josh 30-40M per year soon the Bills SB window is the next 2 years. 

[Malazan]

He'd likely have to re-structure to stay on the team in a team friendly way. How far we've come that there's a reasonable possibility a guy would want to stay on this team that he'd consider it. 

[JaCrispy]

12 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

Restructure Brown or let him walk. Davis is ready, Stills is in the wings, and Roberts/McKenzie play/can play ST’s. The FO does not have a tough decision here.

Not sure I like the idea of Davis as the #2 as we would be downgrading in speed significantly...I actually think our offense needs more speed 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, BillsCuse said:

He was dealing with a high ankle sprain, that takes time to get better and can linger.  I dont think that he should be labeled as injury prone just because of that - has been pretty healthy otherwise.

‘the high ankle was his 3rd injury of the season

[daz28]

Half the league has to cut salary.  Many of the remaining teams don't have cash to give all these guys high salaries.  I think you'll see A LOT of restructuring, as NFL players see what happened to NHL players on the UFA front.  If they refuse to re-negotiate, they will be putting themselves in a risk pool, which is unlike any free agency we've ever seen.  I could see Brown playing for $6M here.  

[BobbyC81]

On 2/5/2021 at 5:55 PM, JohnNord said:

With all due respect, why does everyone think pending Bills FA are going to take a “hometown discount?” People said this last about Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips, and the elected to sign for more money.  It’s thought to fault both who had yet to see a big money contract 
 

As much as he probably likes playing in Buffalo, I definitely wouldn’t expect him to take a pay cut to stay.  

I believe Beane will again earn his salary this offseason.  We don’t know what the salary cap number will be, but it doesn’t sound good.  Some good players in the NFL may be shocked when they’re cut and there isn’t a lot of money available. A patient bargain hunter may be able to get some good players at a discount. 

[DCofNC]

23 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thank you, I understand now, it wasn't clear to me before. 

 

But I think the Bills have to pay him at least league minimum salary.  John Brown has 7 years so $1.05M assuming not much rise this year. So that would become a $6.25M cap hit.  (I'm looking for where I read this and can't find it).  Or I guess in your scenario, convert all but league minimum into signing bonus so we'd pay him $1.05M + $6M bonus, and have a cap hit of $1.05M + 3M + $1.6M or $5.65M cap hit this year and $3M next.

 

I expect that Beane and his capologists have clever plans, but at some point the Bills need to make hard decisions.  I also expect that Brown would at least want to test the waters if there's a team that would like him without a pay cut.  It wouldn't shock me if Beane would trade him for a late round pick.  Remember some of the players Beane traded.

 

I think there are two questions: 

One is, what do the Bills think about his injury history?  Brown, like Milano, is a talented player who makes an impact when he's healthy but is hard to replace with the "next guy up" if he's not (Brown: speed+route running).  So when he's out for several games, the offense has to be re-worked to some extent.  Brown had multiple injuries this season - foot, knee, and ankle. 

 

The Bills could think that these were a cascade from the original injury and just "one of those things" and he could have a 16 game season next year.  Or they could think that it's part of being a smaller WR who has been hammered for 7 years by big WR and likely to continue or accelerate as he ages.

 

The other is, Brown seems able to be neutralized and taken out completely in big games by physical corner play.  Do they want to move in a different direction?  I think they brought Kenny Stills in to have a look-see whether he was someone they could work with who has similar speed, but is bigger and heavier and might in theory, be harder to take away.  None of us know the outcome of that look.

 

All valid, there’s ways to make it all work is what I’m getting at.  I don’t know what they think of him.  I know as a player, I’d rather play where I know I’m going to get a shot to perform and win, as odd as this is to say, that’s Buffalo now.

[JohnNord]

3 hours ago, ColeB said:

I believe Beane will again earn his salary this offseason.  We don’t know what the salary cap number will be, but it doesn’t sound good.  Some good players in the NFL may be shocked when they’re cut and there isn’t a lot of money available. A patient bargain hunter may be able to get some good players at a discount. 

that’s what I’m hoping for too.  The only problem is that the Bills don’t have a ton of cap space even with the best projection.  So Beane is going to have to get rid of a few players and then be really smart with the limited funds the team.  Either way, I have confidence as well

[YoloinOhio]

8 hours ago, daz28 said:

Half the league has to cut salary.  Many of the remaining teams don't have cash to give all these guys high salaries.  I think you'll see A LOT of restructuring, as NFL players see what happened to NHL players on the UFA front.  If they refuse to re-negotiate, they will be putting themselves in a risk pool, which is unlike any free agency we've ever seen.  I could see Brown playing for $6M here.  

I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a restructure of Brown’s contract 

[billsfan89]

It all depends where the cap sits. If the cap is under 185 million which many think it will be I think Brown is a cap casualty unless he takes a massive pay cut to get his cap number below 5 million. If the cap is over 195 million and the Bills actually have some room to work with then I think Brown can stay esp if he takes a small pay cut to lower his cap number to around 7ish million. 

[billsfan_34]

14 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Not sure I like the idea of Davis as the #2 as we would be downgrading in speed significantly...I actually think our offense needs more speed 

Beasley/Stills number 2 or grab a WR via FA/draft- just my armchair opinion.

Edited February 8, 2021 by billsfan_34

[Mountain Man]

On 07/02/2021 at 6:06 PM, thenorthremembers said:

Right essential space to sign better and younger talent.

To sign existing talent. They need the cap space with Allen's and Edmunds' contracts coming up and both starting safeties near contract end

On 07/02/2021 at 7:27 AM, Aussie Joe said:

So we aren’t signing Fuller for 4 yrs $67M?

On Madden? Maybe

On Planet Earth? Doubtful 

[YoloinOhio]

Random but TIL that he has had his nickname Smokey since birth; it’s not because he is fast 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Brown_(wide_receiver)

[Thurman#1]

On 2/8/2021 at 10:39 AM, Doc said:

 

Even they don't/can't know. 

 

 

Nor can they know it about Allen, Diggs or any player.

 

Unless you think they should let Hughes, Beasley and everyone else the same age go, you have to figure that based on his career so far he's not injury prone, that the odds of injury do go up as people age, but that they seem to be willing to take that risk at that age on guys who aren't prone to injury.

 

They do know him and his willingness to play through injury and his injury history far better than we do.

 

I don't think injury will be much of a factor, unless they know something we don't know, which certainly is possible.

 

IMO they will try to get his salary hit down in some way and keep him, if possible, but he certainly also might be let go. Salary, I think, will be a far bigger determiner of what they do with him than injury.

[machine gun kelly]

On 2/8/2021 at 1:53 AM, daz28 said:

Half the league has to cut salary.  Many of the remaining teams don't have cash to give all these guys high salaries.  I think you'll see A LOT of restructuring, as NFL players see what happened to NHL players on the UFA front.  If they refuse to re-negotiate, they will be putting themselves in a risk pool, which is unlike any free agency we've ever seen.  I could see Brown playing for $6M here.  

Ill agree half the league will purge some contracts, but only 11 are under water as of now.  A recent sign was the Texans starting Center for three years and arguably one of their better and consistent lineman was just released.  The significance was the Texans were already under the cap by $9 mil.

[Don Otreply]

Getting a replacement for John Brown who is his equal across the board will likely cost nearly as much or even more than Brown himself.  It is the difference between the two salaries that reflects any savings, not Browns entire salary.  That and the childish reference to fanmadden being used as an actual reason that a team might trade, wave/cut a player is just plain poor intellectual  journalism, sad reflection on the writer really...

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Getting a replacement for John Brown who is his equal across the board will likely cost nearly as much or even more than Brown himself.  It is the difference between the two salaries that reflects any savings, not Browns entire salary.  That and the childish reference to fanmadden being used as an actual reason that a team might trade, wave/cut a player is just plain poor intellectual  journalism, sad reflection on the writer really...

 

With Diggs as the #1 and Beasley in the slot, in this offense the #2 WR is lucky to catch 50 balls a season.  Brown has only exceeded that number twice in his career, in 2019 with the Bills when he was their #1 WR and think one other year early in his career.  Davis on a rookie contract caught in the mid 30's and early in the season wasn't playing as the #2 when Brown was still healthy.  With a year experience and playing as a true #2 all season can see him getting close to 50.  So the only thing Brown gives you that still maybe to be replaced is a little more speed.  You can draft a rookie burner for that and a rookie and Davis together won't cost more than about $2 mil. 

 

Or they sign some vet with speed for $2 to $3 mil.  So unless Brown is willing to take a huge pay cut down to that range can easily seeing him being replaced skill wise and still save $4 mil.

 

For this team to improve to become elite they need improvement in a handful of positions and little to no money available to do that with so they need to cut some players who present a large savings.  To me WR is the one position on this team that has enough depth so can afford to cut him without worrying about losing much production and skill wise.   They can cut D lineman but whomever they cut there, they need to replace with someone better for the team to improve.  As little as Brown played this year, they produced 2nd in the league without him.  So unless he agrees to cut salary in half or so, will be surprised if he's not cut.

[Doc]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Nor can they know it about Allen, Diggs or any player.

 

Unless you think they should let Hughes, Beasley and everyone else the same age go, you have to figure that based on his career so far he's not injury prone, that the odds of injury do go up as people age, but that they seem to be willing to take that risk at that age on guys who aren't prone to injury.

 

They do know him and his willingness to play through injury and his injury history far better than we do.

 

I don't think injury will be much of a factor, unless they know something we don't know, which certainly is possible.

 

IMO they will try to get his salary hit down in some way and keep him, if possible, but he certainly also might be let go. Salary, I think, will be a far bigger determiner of what they do with him than injury.

 

Again it's a combination of things and the best we have to go off-of is what happened last season.  If any of the older guys you mentioned were coming-off injury-plagued seasons, sure, they'd be candidates for pay cut or being cut. 

 

35 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Getting a replacement for John Brown who is his equal across the board will likely cost nearly as much or even more than Brown himself.  It is the difference between the two salaries that reflects any savings, not Browns entire salary.  That and the childish reference to fanmadden being used as an actual reason that a team might trade, wave/cut a player is just plain poor intellectual  journalism, sad reflection on the writer really...

 

The guy I keep mentioning is Stills.  I think they can get him for $4M, maybe less, and he's been in Buffalo and knows the system.

Edited February 28, 2021 by Doc

[Eastport bills]

Brown became brittle and timid as his role as Josh's prime target became a complimentary option. He is a good receiver when he shows the ability to stay on the field and get consistent separation. He's got to show the swagger that Diggs, Beasley and Davis exhibit on GameDay. A highly motivated FA is probably the answer. 

[gonzo1105]

John Brown won’t be on the team next year. They drafted his replacement in Davis. They have Hodgins they drafted. They can draft another one, sign Stills for much cheaper. It makes no sense to keep a 9 million spot. He’s older, he’s been injured, carries a huge cap number with low dead money. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Wouldn't be surprised if this week start to see some movement either players signing extensions or cuts to free up money.  Match 17th is getting closer. 

 

Are we already in the Tag window??  Thought there was a pinned topic on NFL off-season dates?  Did the pin fall out?

[RyanC883]

Couldn’t we trade Brown for a 4th or 5.  I know he has a big cap hit, but there is likely some market for a late pick.  

On 2/8/2021 at 6:37 AM, ColeB said:

I believe Beane will again earn his salary this offseason.  We don’t know what the salary cap number will be, but it doesn’t sound good.  Some good players in the NFL may be shocked when they’re cut and there isn’t a lot of money available. A patient bargain hunter may be able to get some good players at a discount. 

as long as bargain hunting is not like the DL last year!

[BuffaloRebound]

I know it was only 1 game, but he was pretty bad when I re-watched the Colts playoff game.  Drops, no separation, and basically bullied by the Colts DB’s.  His money would be much better spent on a big bodied TE who can block and move the chains.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

Couldn’t we trade Brown for a 4th or 5.  I know he has a big cap hit, but there is likely some market for a late pick.  

 

If there's a market, I'm sure Beane will exploit it.  On the plus side, he's got a solid catch %, low drops, and is 1 season removed from 1000+ yds.  He was just off a top-20 WR in total yards and YPG last year and he was patient and supportive towards a young QB.

 

On the other hand, his current salary/bonuses are at #32 in the league while his YPG this year are down in the 40s somewhere...#49  I think.

 

17 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

as long as bargain hunting is not like the DL last year!

 

I think a problem with the "bargain hunting" on DL last year was that they weren't able to play guys in the positions they envisioned when they signed them.  If they'd been able to keep to the plan of platooning Harrison Phillips and Lotulelei at 1TDT, while platooning Butler and Oliver at 3TDT and using Jefferson in a hybrid DT/DE role, I think it's possible the result might have been better.

[Dukestreetking]

6 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

John Brown won’t be on the team next year. They drafted his replacement in Davis. They have Hodgins they drafted. They can draft another one, sign Stills for much cheaper. It makes no sense to keep a 9 million spot. He’s older, he’s been injured, carries a huge cap number with low dead money. 

Yes, I agree w assessment; this is a fair probability

 

But having just re-watched the Cards game, I was reminded of the sheer beauty of this Triple Threat...at times it looked like "they" could not be stopped.

 

Wasn't even a great JA game, but SD-CB-JB went 27 for 274...not too shabby.

 

Alas, I'm basking in nostalgia (despite the loss), and time moves on. But when JB was healthy, there definitely was "a thing".