Has Josh Allen’s success caused other teams to rethink their QB situations?

[McMuffin]

Are Allen and Mahomes the new standard at QB when it comes to physical talent? It seems that with all of this QB movement, trade and draft rumors that teams are willing to take more risks and go all out in order to acquire a franchise QB either through trade or the draft.  How much pressure has Allen and Mahomes’ success put on other teams to find their QB of the future?

[Southern_Bills]

Not sure it's all Allen/Mahomes, its just the league understands there isn't enough QBs for 32 teams. 

 

If one is available you have to go get it.

[Doc]

The importance of a franchise QB has always been known.  Obviously it's become more important as the league has become a passing one.  I think what you're seeing is teams looking to acquire proven guys rather than take chances on unknown rookies.

[billsfan89]

Allen is a lesson in wholistic scouting. You have to examine why a player is inaccurate in college and assess if they can improve in the pros. You can't just rely on analytics and past results.

[YoloinOhio]

I think so. You need a game changer, play maker at QB. You need mobility. You need an arm. You need a leader. If you have a game manager, or a noodle arm, or a statue, you are just spinning your wheels. Josh isn’t perfect,  he’s very much still developing and hasn’t hit his ceiling ..  but he’s the type of QB who can take a team to a SB. 
 

I think the days of winning a SB with a Trent dilfer or Brad Johnson are over. Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, probably Lawrence ... Russell Wilson types ... these are the “ IT” QBs of today’s nfl. Big arm + mobility .... add intangibles and intelligence and that’s the formula 

Edited February 5, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[97bills]

46 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

Not sure it's all Allen/Mahomes, its just the league understands there isn't enough QBs for 32 teams. 

 

If one is available you have to go get it.

Yep nothing changed look at the past 20 year the Manning brothers Big Ben Brady bress Rodgers  even Wilson all stayed in the playoffs you got to have that QB. you can build and plug a long the way 

[Andy1]

I think the lesson is that mobile athletic QBs like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Murray and Jackson are more desirable than the historically prototypical pocket passers for today’s game. Especially for young players learning the position, mobility gives them another tool to use to keep drives alive. 

[Thurman#1]

Teams have absolutely always felt the pressure to find their QB of the future.

 

No change whatsoever there.

43 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I think so. You need a game changer, play maker at QB. You need mobility. You need an arm. You need a leader. If you have a game manager, or a noodle arm, or a statue, you are just spinning your wheels. Josh isn’t perfect,  he’s very much still developing and hasn’t hit his ceiling ..  but he’s the type of QB who can take a team to a SB. 
 

I think the days of winning a SB with a Trent dilfer or Brad Johnson are over. Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, probably Lawrence ... Russell Wilson types ... these are the “ IT” QBs of today’s nfl. Big arm + mobility .... add intangibles and intelligence and that’s the formula 

 

 

Tom Brady says hi.

 

Movement is an added weapon. It isn't necessary, though.

[YoloinOhio]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Teams have absolutely always felt the pressure to find their QB of the future.

 

No change whatsoever there.

 

 

Tom Brady says hi.

 

Movement is an added weapon. It isn't necessary, though.

I disagree - it is necessary. Brady is a 6th round pick who turned into the greatest QB of all time. If you find another Brady you don’t need to be able to move. Good luck with that. 

[Richard Noggin]

45 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Teams have absolutely always felt the pressure to find their QB of the future.

 

No change whatsoever there.

 

 

Tom Brady says hi.

 

Movement is an added weapon. It isn't necessary, though.

The douche in Tampa Bay USED TO have the best functional pocket mobility I'd ever seen. That guy, despite being a gangly mess, could sidestep a single rusher or step up into a lane and then deliver a strike with startling efficiency. He was elusive within the structure of the pocket.

[Thurman#1]

58 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I disagree - it is necessary. Brady is a 6th round pick who turned into the greatest QB of all time. If you find another Brady you don’t need to be able to move. Good luck with that. 

 

 

It really is not.

 

You're right that Brady is a singularity. There really are no other Tom Bradys out there. And please, what round a guy is picked in has nothing whatsoever to do with whether he is a great QB. That's all on what he becomes.

 

Thing is, same with Josh Allen. Nobody else like Allen is out there. Same with Mahomes. They're all great in different ways.

 

What you need is a great quarterback, a quarterback who is superb in the pass game. If he is also mobile, that's a fantastic added extra. But it's not necessary.

 

Jimmy Garoppolo was in the Super Bowl last year. Goff and Brady before that. Foles/Wentz and Brady before that. And while Wentz has regressed, if he hadn't he'd be looked at as a long-term franchise type guy despite not being mobile. Any team having a shot at a young Drew Brees would take it in a millisecond.

 

You simply do not need it. A Kurt Warner or a Carson Palmer could be wildly successful in the NFL today. Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Stafford, if on good teams, would put their teams in contention every year.

 

It helps. If you put together the ideal QB, he'd be mobile. But mobility is not among the minimum requirements for greatness at QB.

 

Brady is in the Super Bowl. This year. Right now. For good reason. And they wouldn't be there or close without him despite his lack of athleticism.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

The douche in Tampa Bay USED TO have the best functional pocket mobility I'd ever seen. That guy, despite being a gangly mess, could sidestep a single rusher or step up into a lane and then deliver a strike with startling efficiency. He was elusive within the structure of the pocket.

 

 

Oh, agreed, 100%. But it wasn't because he was athletic or quick or fast. It was because he always stepped in the right direction at the right time, without taking his eyes off of what was going on downfield. It was a head thing. And he's still in the Super Bowl at age 43 and it ain't because of his mobility or athleticism.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

I think the point @BADOLBILZ made a couple of weeks back was a really interesting one. The way the league plays Quarterback changes.... in the 00 and early 10s when every defense wanted to be the Ravens with their disguise and heavy blitz style the Quarterbacks who for the most part succeeded were the cerebral pocket guys who could process quickly and had a quick release. As the league morphed into more of a coverage league where teams on defense started to win with their back end - a trend kicked off really with the Legion of Boom and the cover 3 in Seattle - it became more important again to have an athlete with an arm to force that D out of its relatively simple scheme. That is why I think when you look at the best 6 Quarterbacks this year - the old man in Tampa apart - they are all the guys who can be off script playmakers: Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Watson, Wilson.... it is the reason football is so fascinating as a game because the strategy of it is constantly evolving.

[machine gun kelly]

GB and Thurm, you’re both right so I guess credit goes to Badolbilz (I don’t remember reading that post).  A team can still win with a quick release QB like Brady, but the trend with coverage allows for the mobile QB.  The funny thing is football seems to ebb and flow so some things from the past may come up again.  It’s not like a hurry up offense is new, nor RPO’s, and even the wildcat.  Sparano didn’t invent the wildcat.  That was around in the 50’s and 60’s.

 

A lot of great coaches are students of the game from the past and just place a twist on it.

[RobbRiddick]

I think it may change the way certain QBs are drafted, and where. I've seen a lot of stuff about college prospects who are raw but have great physical attributes, along with "could be the next Josh Allen". 

[Frat-Train]

Allen is rare in that he offers every quality you want in a drop back passer, while still possessing everything you hope to find in an elite “running” QB.  The level of impact’s surface has only been scratched, meaning; Josh Allen has only begun to show what today’s QB could look like, if you’re diligent in your search and developmental in your method.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Frat-Train

[dave mcbride]

9 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I think so. You need a game changer, play maker at QB. You need mobility. You need an arm. You need a leader. If you have a game manager, or a noodle arm, or a statue, you are just spinning your wheels. Josh isn’t perfect,  he’s very much still developing and hasn’t hit his ceiling ..  but he’s the type of QB who can take a team to a SB. 
 

I think the days of winning a SB with a Trent dilfer or Brad Johnson are over. Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, probably Lawrence ... Russell Wilson types ... these are the “ IT” QBs of today’s nfl. Big arm + mobility .... add intangibles and intelligence and that’s the formula 

Be careful there. If Garrapolo doesn’t overthrow that bomb to Emmanuel Sanders by 2 feet, we’re having a different conversation. The disparity in SF’s record when Garrapolo starts and when he doesn’t is very stark.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by dave mcbride

[dave mcbride]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the point @BADOLBILZ made a couple of weeks back was a really interesting one. The way the league plays Quarterback changes.... in the 00 and early 10s when every defense wanted to be the Ravens with their disguise and heavy blitz style the Quarterbacks who for the most part succeeded were the cerebral pocket guys who could process quickly and had a quick release. As the league morphed into more of a coverage league where teams on defense started to win with their back end - a trend kicked off really with the Legion of Boom and the cover 3 in Seattle - it became more important again to have an athlete with an arm to force that D out of its relatively simple scheme. That is why I think when you look at the best 6 Quarterbacks this year - the old man in Tampa apart - they are all the guys who can be off script playmakers: Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Watson, Wilson.... it is the reason football is so fascinating as a game because the strategy of it is constantly evolving.

Where do folks place Justin Herbert on this spectrum? I ask because along with Russell Wilson in 2012 and maybe Marino in 1983, that was the most impressive rookie season for a qb I’ve seen.

[JMF2006]

10 hours ago, McMuffin said:

Are Allen and Mahomes the new standard at QB when it comes to physical talent? It seems that with all of this QB movement, trade and draft rumors that teams are willing to take more risks and go all out in order to acquire a franchise QB either through trade or the draft.  How much pressure has Allen and Mahomes’ success put on other teams to find their QB of the future?

 

Look at Herbert and Burrows they are cut from the same mold as Mahomee and Josh....(Tua can run but can he make all the throws throws? )

 

The kid from BYU who should go in the top 5 is another one....if your not mobile now your a sitting duck.

 

If you have a sitting duck....(Stafford) you might need to get mobile...(Goff)..I am not saying Goff is better he can run a lot better though.

 

The guys like Brady and Ryan are throwback dinosaurs and without their veteran smarts wouldn't be as successful now. 

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Teams have absolutely always felt the pressure to find their QB of the future.

 

No change whatsoever there.

 

 

Tom Brady says hi.

 

Movement is an added weapon. It isn't necessary, though.

 

If you have a great line or lots of veteran smarts you can succeed but its not happening very much anymore.

Edited February 5, 2021 by JMF2006

[SoCal Deek]

The QB position hasn’t changed. What do teams want? They want a guy who can throw the ball to their receivers, and not to the other team’s players...very consistently. That’s it! There is no formula. All of these guys have different skill sets. Sure, their physical dimensions (height, arm strength) are what you can measure at the Combine but in the end it’s mostly about consistent performance on the field against the speed of an NFL caliber defense. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by SoCal Deek

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think Watson changed the game. Not Mahomes or Allen. Teams never trade a young top QB in their prime. There is too much risk. With Watson likely traded every GM/owner knows whatever they do will be lessened because Watson also was traded. 

 

I think Jay Cutler is the best young starting QB traded. Just shows young starters don't get traded. 

 

I also think Dallas is attempting to change how QB gets paid. Goff and Wentz might have scared off Dallas. If you sign these QB's to contracts and they don't continue to earn it well you're in a deep hole. 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Buffalo_Stampede

[klos63]

Look at the 4 teams in the conference championship games. 4 elite QB'S.  I think teams in both conferences know they need to be better than those 4 teams to win in the next few seasons. Goff won't beat them, Watson could, maybe Stafford.... , why pay $30M+ per season for a QB that can't beat the guys ahead of him.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, klos63 said:

Look at the 4 teams in the conference championship games. 4 elite QB'S.  I think teams in both conferences know they need to be better than those 4 teams to win in the next few seasons. Goff won't beat them, Watson could, maybe Stafford.... , why pay $30M+ per season for a QB that can't beat the guys ahead of him.

I don't think Allen is in that category yet. Allen is still in the Goff, Wentz, Tannehill, Prescott, Cousins,... category. 

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think Watson changed the game. Not Mahomes or Allen. Teams never trade a young top QB in their prime. There is too much risk. With Watson likely traded every GM/owner knows whatever they do will be lessened because Watson also was traded. 

 

I think Jay Cutler is the best young starting QB traded. Just shows young starters don't get traded. 

 

I also think Dallas is attempting to change how QB gets paid. Goff and Wentz might have scared off Dallas. If you sign these QB's to contracts and they don't continue to earn it well you're in a deep hole. 

 

Watson isn't likely to be traded.  For the reason you bolded.

 

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I don't think Allen is in that category yet. Allen is still in the Goff, Wentz, Tannehill, Prescott, Cousins,... category. 

 

Josh is in the elite category already.  Prescott might be as well.

[eball]

I think Josh Allen's success has caused other teams to remember that having a franchise QB is a very good thing in the NFL.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Watson isn't likely to be traded.  For the reason you bolded.

 

 

Josh is in the elite category already.  Prescott might be as well.

You don't get elite status after 1 season. He's on his way. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Dukestreetking]

I interpret @McMuffinquestion to mean, "has JA changed how teams draft/otherwise obtain their QB?" Answer: yes.

 

JA had measurable/readily observable physical tools, though w flaws.

 

But what I kept hearing fr McBeane/org was the value they placed on his intangible potentials (IPs).

 

IPs: coachability, learning velocity,  leadership growth, internal critique process, work ethic, team fit, city fit and so many others.

 

Aside fr wonderlic and team visits, IPs are difficult to empirically measure.

 

Now, have teams looked at such traits in the past? Of course, but clearly Buffalo's due diligence was spot on wrt Allen.

 

Bottom line: I suspect teams will be hitting up Bills leadership for tips/insight into their process. How did they so thoroughly nail this intangible potential piece? Specifically, the kinds of things we don't hear about in TV interviews.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Where do folks place Justin Herbert on this spectrum? I ask because along with Russell Wilson in 2012 and maybe Marino in 1983, that was the most impressive rookie season for a qb I’ve seen.

 

I think Herbert can be an off script playmaker. Burrow maybe a tad less and that is why right now I'd have his ceiling lower.

[klos63]

8 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I don't think Allen is in that category yet. Allen is still in the Goff, Wentz, Tannehill, Prescott, Cousins,... category. 

You can argue that he is much better than those QB's, Prescott is probably in the same category as Allen. Teams saw that Allen was the main reason the Bills won the division and a key reason they won both playoff games. He'll likely finish in the top 3 MVP along with Mahomes and Rogers.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, klos63 said:

You can argue that he is much better than those QB's, Prescott is probably in the same category as Allen. Teams saw that Allen was the main reason the Bills won the division and a key reason they won both playoff games. He'll likely finish in the top 3 MVP along with Mahomes and Rogers.

He had a great year. You get contracts off of great years. No one will mention Allen positively in the future if that's the only year he does it. He's not in the same class as Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes. He's on his way though. So have other QB's. Derek Carr was on his way. 

[C.Biscuit97]

21 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Allen is a lesson in wholistic scouting. You have to examine why a player is inaccurate in college and assess if they can improve in the pros. You can't just rely on analytics and past results.

Eh. I think the Allen prospect fails 99% of the time. McBeane are geniuses for finding a 🦄.

 

I guess a counter could be that with the league rules, the athletic, not completely polished qb has a much better shot of succeeding I guess. But I can’t believe a qb who was meh at Wyoming became a superstar in the nfl. It’s insane and speaks volumes about Allen’s work ethic and the Bills. 

[CincyBillsFan]

40 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Eh. I think the Allen prospect fails 99% of the time. McBeane are geniuses for finding a 🦄.

 

I guess a counter could be that with the league rules, the athletic, not completely polished qb has a much better shot of succeeding I guess. But I can’t believe a qb who was meh at Wyoming became a superstar in the nfl. It’s insane and speaks volumes about Allen’s work ethic and the Bills. 

The idea that Allen was "meh" at Wyoming depends on you having only looked at his stats and not watched any Wyoming games.

 

Years ago I stumbled on an Allen/Wyoming game late on Saturday night (it was 2 years before he declared for the NFL) and couldn't believe what I was seeing the WY QB do.  Some of his throws and sack escapes defied logic to my football mind. 

 

I started making it a point to catch Allen's games after that night and the first thing you came to understand was that Allen's stats meant nothing.  He was doing things that no other QB in college football was doing.  And I watch a lot of college football.

 

I remember thinking wouldn't it be nice if the Bills drafted this guy in the 4th round in a couple of years as an experiment.  Little did I know.  Needless to say I was thrilled when the Bills made him their pick.  I wasn't sure if Allen would work out in the pros but I damn sure knew it would be entertaining.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by CincyBillsFan

[boater]

On 2/4/2021 at 9:01 PM, Southern_Bills said:

Not sure it's all Allen/Mahomes, its just the league understands there isn't enough QBs for 32 teams. 

 

If one is available you have to go get it.

This.

College circuit doesn't make enough QBs to keep 32 NFL teams fully stocked.

[Punching Bag]

Allen is the new standard on QBs willing to work during offseason.  Many QBs spend a lot of time on socialization rather than working on their craft carefully self-critiquing their performance and getting advice to improve.  All players should be doing that since they are being paid a full time salary unlike earlier years when players used to do other jobs during offseason.

 

It is ironic that Allen who did not attend camp after camp is one who is willing work so hard during off season.  Many players in NFL seem to seem off season is a vacation and NFLPA seems to think so as well wanting to eliminate mini-camps, preseason games, etc.  They do not care of players show up in camp out of shape and lose jobs or players are not able to learn schemes and proper techniques of NFL.  I guess I can see their point for it is same amount of money and less work for people paid to their jobs.  They are real good examples for players.

[Buffalo716]

13 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I don't think Allen is in that category yet. Allen is still in the Goff, Wentz, Tannehill, Prescott, Cousins,... category. 

Goff wentz tannehill Prescott and cousins have never all prod 

 

They can't hold a candle to Josh Allen's talent

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He had a great year. You get contracts off of great years. No one will mention Allen positively in the future if that's the only year he does it. He's not in the same class as Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes. He's on his way though. So have other QB's. Derek Carr was on his way. 

Wait...didn’t Matt Flynn get that big contract in Seattle off of one good year in GB?

Edited February 6, 2021 by Solomon Grundy

[zow2]

On 2/4/2021 at 9:22 PM, billsfan89 said:

Allen is a lesson in wholistic scouting. You have to examine why a player is inaccurate in college and assess if they can improve in the pros. You can't just rely on analytics and past results.

 

Mahomes too. He had some crazy Big12 stats to his name but there were all sorts of naysayers after he was drafted.  Like Allen, he’s turned out Better in the NFL than he was in college. 

[JerseyBills]

Only guy I keep thinking of is Jameis Winston 

His skillset is elite but his mind isn't. 

Right QB coach and OC ,Jameis could strive 

Edited February 6, 2021 by JerseyBills

[C.Biscuit97]

20 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The idea that Allen was "meh" at Wyoming depends on you having only looked at his stats and not watched any Wyoming games.

 

Years ago I stumbled on an Allen/Wyoming game late on Saturday night (it was 2 years before he declared for the NFL) and couldn't believe what I was seeing the WY QB do.  Some of his throws and sack escapes defied logic to my football mind. 

 

I started making it a point to catch Allen's games after that night and the first thing you came to understand was that Allen's stats meant nothing.  He was doing things that no other QB in college football was doing.  And I watch a lot of college football.

 

I remember thinking wouldn't it be nice if the Bills drafted this guy in the 4th round in a couple of years as an experiment.  Little did I know.  Needless to say I was thrilled when the Bills made him their pick.  I wasn't sure if Allen would work out in the pros but I damn sure knew it would be entertaining.

 

 

 

 

I guess. I watched his games against Iowa and Oregon and it looked like every other overhyped guy with all the tools. I still believe that a guy with his talent should dominate a conference like that even if he doesn’t have top talent around him. I would say that if Wilson and Trey Lance had similar stats as Allen in college.

 

I’m giving all the credit in the world to Allen and the Bills because normally guys like this end up being Hackenburg, Jake Locker, or Mallett and not becoming a top 5 qb.  It’s truly impressive. 

On 2/4/2021 at 9:22 PM, billsfan89 said:

Allen is a lesson in wholistic scouting. You have to examine why a player is inaccurate in college and assess if they can improve in the pros. You can't just rely on analytics and past results.

But I think the overwhelming evidence is a guy under 60% in college in this era (please don’t post Johnny Utias’ college stats 😆), especially in a conference like the MWC, are never going to be franchise nfl qbs. McBeane are absolute geniuses for finding a unicorn.