Source: LB Matt Milano looking for “top dollar” in FA

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, hjnick said:

I think our optimal way to go (and it takes 2 to tango), but if we could trade our 1st round pick, drop back into the early second round and obtain an extra pick or 2. 

 

Then with that 2nd round pick, get a LB to replace Milano.  Later in the draft I want to get Chubba Hubbard, probably a 3rd or 4th round pick.  Dude is FAST!

Every mock draft I do, when I get to 30, I want to trade down based on who is available. Just don’t see the 1st round value. It may play out differently obviously but I’ve done it like 7 times. 

[hjnick]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Every mock draft I do, when I get to 30, I want to trade down based on who is available. Just don’t see the 1st round value. It may play out differently obviously but I’ve done it like 7 times. 

Based on talent alone, there might not be any '1st round talent' at 30... BUT the great thing about the last picks of the draft is

- it's the last picks for that night and if you want to go and get a player that you think fell, it's a good place to trade back up to.

- you get the 5th year option on that player.

 

I think that 5th year option is a big plus to go up and get a player at the end of the first.  Maybe someone trades back up and gets Trask here for that 5th year option or Mac Jones if he slips down the draft board.  Having a 5th year option on a QB is huge if he pans out.

[Estro]

On 2/1/2021 at 11:31 AM, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Guess we are getting a 3rd round comp pick for once 

Not if we sign more FA's than we lose, like we foolishly did the year Gilmore signed with the Pats.  Missed out on a 3rd round pick that year because we signed a bunch if backup, scrub FAs.  Hopefully Beane is smart about it.

On 2/1/2021 at 11:31 AM, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Guess we are getting a 3rd round comp pick for once 

Not if we sign more FA's than we lose, like we foolishly did the year Gilmore signed with the Pats.  Missed out on a 3rd round pick that year because we signed a bunch if backup, scrub FAs.  Hopefully Beane is smart about it.

[Estro]

I love Milano.  The Bills defense is much better with him on the field, as evidenced by the data.

 

That said I think his injuries and the times he's missed will be the reason the Bills let him walk.  As a general philosophy I'm not sure it's ever wise to give a LB $14-15M.  I'd rather invest that money into the offense, OL or pass catchers.......thats the formula to winning.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I know it's PFFffffff 

 

But 

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/bills-today-pro-football-focus-predicts-these-signings-in-free-agency

 

Quote

 

37. LB MATT MILANO

Milano has developed into a modern-day linebacker. He has the 11th-best coverage grade among linebackers since 2018, he's been excellent matching up with running backs in single coverage and he's held his own when asked to line up over the slot.

Prediction: Bills sign Milano for four years …

 

 

and since its mentioned 

 

Quote

 

18. CB RICHARD SHERMAN

One of the best cornerbacks of his generation, Richard Sherman is still playing the game at a high level, but his age and relative lack of scheme diversity will scare a lot of potential suitors off.

Prediction: Bills sign Sherman for two years ...

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[DCOrange]

6 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I know it's PFFffffff 

 

But 

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/bills-today-pro-football-focus-predicts-these-signings-in-free-agency

 

37. LB MATT MILANO

Milano has developed into a modern-day linebacker. He has the 11th-best coverage grade among linebackers since 2018, he's been excellent matching up with running backs in single coverage and he's held his own when asked to line up over the slot.

Prediction: Bills sign Milano for four years …

 

and since its mentioned 

 

 

18. CB RICHARD SHERMAN

One of the best cornerbacks of his generation, Richard Sherman is still playing the game at a high level, but his age and relative lack of scheme diversity will scare a lot of potential suitors off.

Prediction: Bills sign Sherman for two years ...

They project us to be signing quite a few expensive players this offseason. I don't think we'll pony up for Sherman but I guess we'll see soon enough.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 2/4/2021 at 10:43 AM, YoloinOhio said:

If they want to burn an early day 2 pick on a LB, Baron Browning is an option to upgrade in size/speed from Milano. Offers coverage and pass rush ability 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/baron-browning/uPpSp2BTNa

 

We need premium to read that; can you give us a summary?  Projected 40 time, synopsis?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

https://sports.yahoo.com/buffalo-bills-free-agency-review-143035736.html

Quote

 

Milano might be underappreciated by the national media, but he was a driving force for Buffalo's defense. He plays in all situations well: against the run, rushing the passer, and defending the pass. Milano fits all of the attributes of the modern linebacker. He was missed sorely by the defense when placed on injured reserve. While he only played 30-percent of the snaps during the regular season, his postseason counts soared. As exemplified by his usage during the playoffs, Milano is a three-down linebacker. The team struggled to matchup with tight ends and running backs at times when Milano missed time due to injury. 

 

Even though he has strong coverage skills, Milano was overmatched (as the rest of the Bills defense) by Travis Kelce in the AFC Championship Game.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Dkollidas]

On 2/4/2021 at 11:32 AM, hjnick said:

I'm not sure which draft LBs are faster than Milano, but I would use or 1st or 2nd rounder to replace Milano unless we already have a LB in waiting that we think can replace Milano.

 

We need a LB that can make Kelce work.  We have to bring in players to stop the KC offense.

I think they might go for a hybrid LB/S/Slot CB to cover TE’s. The defense was exposed in the middle of the field. I would believe they want to get longer & more athletic there. 
Hamsah Nasirildeen is my favorite but could see a guy like Ifeatu Melifonwu from Syracuse or South Carolina’s Israel Mukuamu. All three also have great names. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 2/4/2021 at 11:11 AM, Estro said:

I love Milano.  The Bills defense is much better with him on the field, as evidenced by the data.

 

That said I think his injuries and the times he's missed will be the reason the Bills let him walk.  As a general philosophy I'm not sure it's ever wise to give a LB $14-15M.  I'd rather invest that money into the offense, OL or pass catchers.......thats the formula to winning.

 

Milano is a dilemna.  The way the Bills defense is designed, he's a huge difference-maker when he's healthy.  Because of Milano's skill set, he's not a guy you can apparently keep a good backup on the roster and plug right in.

 

So they had to rework the defensive responsibilities to make it respectable when Klein was playing.

 

That gets harder to do with Milano becoming expensive.

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We need premium to read that; can you give us a summary?  Projected 40 time, synopsis?

He ran like a corner coming out of HS. I will check to see i can get projected 40 time. Pro day is 3/30

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I can’t see a team paying him more than a 4 year 44 mil deal. That is the deal I would go up to if I were the Bills.

[JaCrispy]

4 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I can’t see a team paying him more than a 4 year 44 mil deal. That is the deal I would go up to if I were the Bills.

That’s fine, but if the Bills do that, they better be prepared to let Edmunds walk after his contract is up...I don’t see how they would be able to sign both to top dollar deals...And neither would it be wise to do so imo...

Edited February 11, 2021 by JaCrispy

[colin]

lbs can be split between edge players who rush the passer well, and everyone else.

 

for "off ball" LBs, the ones who get paid are much much better over all than both the guys we have.  part of it is scheme and lack of guys infront of them, but several teams have better MLBs than we do, and while milano is OLB, the roles for those positions are quite similar in our D.

 

aside from RB and CB, MLBs come into the nfl and show their ability faster than any other position.  i know edmunds is young, but i still wanna play madden manager and say move him outside where he can impose rather than get caught out thinking slowly.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Milano is a dilemna.  The way the Bills defense is designed, he's a huge difference-maker when he's healthy.  Because of Milano's skill set, he's not a guy you can apparently keep a good backup on the roster and plug right in.

 

So they had to rework the defensive responsibilities to make it respectable when Klein was playing.

 

That gets harder to do with Milano becoming expensive.

 

It is hard to come to the solid conclusion.  

Some here like to make note of his "blown plays" in critical games ...  but I stand by the notion that 

Not everyone can make every play on every down.  

 

If you look at W/L when he's playing 100% healthy you can argue the Bills have a much better chances of winning when he is in.  

 

In the articles I posted he's mentioned as Quote might be underappreciated  Unquote.  

Edited February 11, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

9 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I can’t see a team paying him more than a 4 year 44 mil deal. That is the deal I would go up to if I were the Bills.

on what planet is MM on par with Hitchens, McKinney, Kendricks, Hightower, jaylen smith, Hicks, Littleton, Trevathen... 

 

if the market bears anything more than AJ Klein money I’m shocked. 

[YoloinOhio]

19 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

on what planet is MM on par with Hitchens, McKinney, Kendricks, Hightower, jaylen smith, Hicks, Littleton, Trevathen... 

 

if the market bears anything more than AJ Klein money I’m shocked. 

Spotrac shows his market value at 14mill/yr

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

on what planet is MM on par with Hitchens, McKinney, Kendricks, Hightower, jaylen smith, Hicks, Littleton, Trevathen... 

 

if the market bears anything more than AJ Klein money I’m shocked. 

 

He is getting waaaay more than AJ Klein money. Prepare to be shocked.

[TheFunPolice]

I wonder if he would do something like 2 years, $28 mil, all guaranteed?

 

With the cap being down a lot of guys are not going to get their big time $$ this offseason. This doesn't hamstring him or the team long-term, and allows him to cash in a bit now and more in just 2 years. 

Edited February 11, 2021 by TheFunPolice

[Back2Buff]

Who sits there and watches the Superbowl, and then says they want Milano back??  Milano is severely limited and it killed this team.  When Milano was out, there wasn't even a drop off in the defense.  One could argue, once Klein got comfortable, the D was better than when Milano wasn't in there.  The playoffs were a huge turn off for me on Milano.  The guy was exposed as just not being athletic enough.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Back2Buff

[Hapless Bills Fan]

42 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

on what planet is MM on par with Hitchens, McKinney, Kendricks, Hightower, jaylen smith, Hicks, Littleton, Trevathen... 

if the market bears anything more than AJ Klein money I’m shocked. 

 

To Bills fans, he's a guy that misses time and whiffs on critical plays.

To the rest of the league, he may be a LB who played a key role on a team that had the #2 D in the league a year ago and was one of the top-4 teams this season

 

A lot depends upon the intersection of scheme and scheme fit with which teams have cap space, but prepare to be shocked.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

32 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Spotrac shows his market value at 14mill/yr

I finally can use shocked emoji

[BaaadThingsMan]

Would top dollar sign Lavonte David? If so, I'd do that!

[Buffalo_Stampede]

13 minutes ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

Would top dollar sign Lavonte David? If so, I'd do that!

He did play a couple years for Frazier. I don't think he leaves though, but you never know. 

[Doc Brown]

If the salary cap is higher than expected then I would put the franchise tag on him and create cap space through cutting or restructuring contracts of less vital players.  Gives us one more season to evaluate Edmunds and Milano.  Hopefully the salary cap will jump significantly next year.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

27 minutes ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

Would top dollar sign Lavonte David? If so, I'd do that!

 

he is going to be an interesting one-- how do you structure a deal for a 31-year old LB? 3-year, front-loaded deal?

[BaaadThingsMan]

22 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

he is going to be an interesting one-- how do you structure a deal for a 31-year old LB? 3-year, front-loaded deal?

Quick hit, heavy first two years guaranteed then cap friendly after that.

[BillsCuse]

2 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

I wonder if he would do something like 2 years, $28 mil, all guaranteed?

 

With the cap being down a lot of guys are not going to get their big time $$ this offseason. This doesn't hamstring him or the team long-term, and allows him to cash in a bit now and more in just 2 years. 

 

37 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

If the salary cap is higher than expected then I would put the franchise tag on him and create cap space through cutting or restructuring contracts of less vital players.  Gives us one more season to evaluate Edmunds and Milano.  Hopefully the salary cap will jump significantly next year.

I think 14m a year is too high for him, which is what it would roughly be for a franchise tag too.  I dont think a short term contract would be smart either, would rather keep the cap hit lower this year for him and higher later when the cap goes up.

[Returntoglory]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I finally can use shocked emoji

Well? Where is it ???😲

[Buddo]

With a 'normal' cap, Milano would definitely get paid handsomely. I would still question Spotrac's $14 million per valuation, as I think there aren't too many teams who would put his value at what I think is a 'high water mark'.

 

Tbh, irrespective of what we fans think, I believe the Bills FO wouldn't baulk at a number of $12 million per - again, in a normal year.

 

Milano's main problem this off season, imho, is that he is from the school of 'very good', but nowhere near 'elite'. This off-season, it's going to be the 'elite' who get paid, because teams with cap space will snap them up, and everyone else will be after scraps - and they won't have the money to pay guys that well.

 

I won't say that Milano won't get a good deal, but I think it's  lot more unlikely that he will, as much due to circumstance as anything else.

 

I haven't tried to look deeply into this, but my questions about Milano getting paid, even aside from the cap issues, run along the lines of

 

'How many teams run a similar style of D to the Bills?

 

'How many of those teams have sufficient cap space?'

 

'How many of those teams have an opening for  Milano'.

 

Answer all of those, and I believe (not know) that the eventual number is going to be pretty small (of teams).

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I'm going to guess Milano gets a prove it contract with 1-2 years at 12-13 per. He's had pretty bad luck in the final year of his rookie contract. He was injured most of the year (and not great even when healthy), and he's signing this next contract in the COVID offseason with the cap going down.  

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Spotrac shows his market value at 14mill/yr

Thanks Matt, it's been nice knowin ya.....

[billsfan89]

14 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I'm going to guess Milano gets a prove it contract with 1-2 years at 12-13 per. He's had pretty bad luck in the final year of his rookie contract. He was injured most of the year (and not great even when healthy), and he's signing this next contract in the COVID offseason with the cap going down.  

 

 

 

If there is a big time cap crunch that puts the cap at 185 million or lower then who is offering Milano 12 million per-season? The Bills sure as hell won't be able to since even if they cut Brown, Butler, Jefferson, Lee Smith and get players like Addision, Hughes, Mitch and a few others to restructure their deals the Bills will still have limited cap dollars to spend and I doubt they are going to spend it heavily on Milano. 

 

At a 180 million dollar cap number 22 teams are going to either be negative on the cap or only have less than 20 million in space (which considering the rookie pool cash needed and emergency money means less than 10 million available) yes I know teams will cut players and redo deals but in the end the amount of free cash flow on a cap set around 185 million or less is going to be dramatically lower than most years. 

 

I can't see any team spending 12 million on Milano. I could be wrong but I think his "prove it" deal is somewhere in the 7-9 million dollar range, I can't see a team spending 12 million on a LB who isn't a pass rusher and can't consistently shut down top TE's in coverage. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

If there is a big time cap crunch that puts the cap at 185 million or lower then who is offering Milano 12 million per-season?

 

Well...per Overthecap, there are 11 or so teams with >$20M cap space even with the cap set at $180.5M.

One of them?  Just depends on if he gets 2 or more "fits" between his talent and their needs, and they get into a bit of a bidding war

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well...there are 8 or so teams with >$20M cap space even with the cap set at $176M.

So one of them?

 

Are any of those teams willing to spend 12 million on an LB that isn't a pass rusher and isn't elite in coverage against TE's, who also has issues being banged up? Those teams are going to have their pick from free agents and aren't likely to want to spend 20-30% of their cap space on a LB like Milano.

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Are any of those teams willing to spend 12 million on an LB that isn't a pass rusher and isn't elite in coverage against TE's, who also has issues being banged up? Those teams are going to have their pick from free agents and aren't likely to want to spend 20-30% of their cap space on a LB like Milano.

Milano ain’t perfect but he’s a good player that helps a team win. Somebody will pay him. Bills were a noticeably better team with Milano on the field. I hope Beane finds a way to bring him back.  He’s easily our hardest to replace Free Agent.  

[Mat68]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Milano ain’t perfect but he’s a good player that helps a team win. Somebody will pay him. Bills were a noticeably better team with Milano on the field. I hope Beane finds a way to bring him back.  He’s easily our hardest to replace Free Agent.  

This is the year maybe Buffalo gets some discounts.  Milano 1 year 8 or 9 mil seems like an option.  If he gets a long term deal good on him.  Idk if he pulls a massive deal.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Mat68

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Are any of those teams willing to spend 12 million on an LB that isn't a pass rusher and isn't elite in coverage against TE's, who also has issues being banged up?

 

It's all going to depend upon how they see his value to their defensive scheme and needs.  I don't know...but neither do you

 

17 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Those teams are going to have their pick from free agents and aren't likely to want to spend 20-30% of their cap space on a LB like Milano.

 

First off, the cap is currently estimated to be at $180.5M so giving Milano $14M this season would be 7.8% of their cap space.

Second, Congratulations on your football knowledge and insight into the inner workings of other teams needs to determine what they're likely to do

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

This is the year maybe Buffalo gets some discounts.  Milano 1 year 8 or 9 mil seems like an option.  If he gets a long term deal good on him.  Idk if he pulls a massive deal.

 

IDK either, like I said...it's gonna depend upon a match between Milano's scheme fit and the needs of one of the teams with Big Cap.

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's all going to depend upon how they see his value to their defensive scheme and needs.  I don't know...but neither do you

 

 

First off, the cap is currently estimated to be at $180.5M so giving Milano $14M this season would be 7.8% of their cap space.

Second, Congratulations on your football knowledge and insight into the inner workings of other teams needs to determine what they're likely to do

 

IDK either, like I said...it's gonna depend upon a match between Milano's scheme fit and the needs of one of the teams with Big Cap.

Weakside 4-3 bakers are not usually market setters.  Im skeptical he pulls anything over 10 a year.

[billsfan89]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

Milano ain’t perfect but he’s a good player that helps a team win. Somebody will pay him. Bills were a noticeably better team with Milano on the field. I hope Beane finds a way to bring him back.  He’s easily our hardest to replace Free Agent.  

 

I would put D.Williams as being harder to replace. But Milano isn't too far behind. And I agree Milano is a very good player. But when everyone is in a cap crunch it depresses the market for all players. And that makes it harder for a guy like Milano who isn't a pass rusher and isn't dynamic in coverage. I think this might actually work to the Bills benefit in keeping Milano. If his best offers are 2-3 year deals in the 8-9 million dollar aav range then he might just take a one year deal in the 8-9 million dollar range with the Bills and go after another bite at the apple when the cap hopefully expands in 2022.