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Source: LB Matt Milano looking for “top dollar” in FA


YoloinOhio

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2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Haha if you find the UFA that can stop Kelce, I’m sure that several GM’s would be interested, make sure you forward them your list!

Thanks for this,

 

Can we pls not evaluate Milano's career or worth to the Buffalo Bills football team on his inability to cover Kelce...

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29 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Please, please stop.  Milano is NOT, I repeat, NOT better than Edmunds.  People here are ridiculous to think so.  

Milano is much better than Edmunds is. I dont know how anyone that watched this year could think otherwise. 

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22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Haha if you find the UFA that can stop Kelce, I’m sure that several GM’s would be interested, make sure you forward them your list!

Right so go ahead and pay him 14-15million ,  and lets cut 3-4 players to do that because he thinks he should be paid more even though he cannot stop or even contain Kelce

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48 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

https://fansided.com/2021/02/01/bills-free-agent-matt-milano-looking-top-dollar-free-agency/

In the latest Stacking the Box column, FanSided’s national NFL reporter Matt Verderame has heard from a source that linebacker Matt Milano is looking for “top dollar” in free agency.

“Per source, Milano is looking for top-dollar at his position,”  writes Verderame. “Although he’s without Pro Bowl or All-Pro accolades, Milano has been a playmaker and culture-maker. The fourth-year man has racked up 101 tackles in 2019 and then 3.5 sacks and win [10?] hits in 2020, while providing quality coverage. He’ll have a strong market.”

 

That seemed what Beane was alluding to in his presser when he said of Milano "he wants to and he's earned the right to test the market for FA"

Milano thinks he's a difference maker on defense, and he wants to be paid like a top LB.

 

Well, Milano IS a difference maker on defense - when he's on the field.

 

I don't watch enough details of how other teams play to really know who the best comparators for Milano might be on OTC's list of 4-3 OLBs - many of them are listed by pro-football-reference as MLB!!!

 

The best comparable might be Deion Jones of ATL who got paid 2 years ago (2019).  6'1, 227.  He had an injury shortened 3rd season and appeared in 77% of his games at the point where he re-upped, vs Milano at 84%.  Similar size guy.  He got $57 million for 4 years with $18.8M fully guaranteed.  Average of $14.25/yr. 

 

Maybe Shaq Thompson? 

 

The bottom line is that the Bills are in a quandry.  Milano slots in exactly as a homegrown "draft and develop" success of a player they say they want to keep. 

 

On the other hand, as @WideNine and @BADOLBILZ have pointed out, competitive players that try to do too much may get injured more often.  Josh Allen isn't the only fiercely-competitive guy who wants to win on every down.  Bills can't afford to keep a "spare" LB for Milano, given that they apparently need to re-work the entire defense to function without him.  I imagine the Bills would like to craft a contract with per-game roster bonuses and other incentives.

 

I imagine Milano believes he's earned the right to be paid, period.

 

Working for him:

-excellent player with exceptional coverage skills for LB

-difference maker for our defense when on the field

-when he played a full season in 2019, put up great tackle stats

-end of this season, put up very good sack/QB hit stats AND flashed in coverage

 

Working against him:

-tight cap for most of the league.  marketing himself to a limited set of teams who make best use of his size/skills AND have cap available to pay him

-hasn't had a complete season yet where he put up both great tackle numbers AND difference-maker plays (TFL, QB hits/sacks)

-availability.  most of the top paid guys (other than Jones) have appeared in 5-9 more games/4 years - available 92-95% of games over 4 yrs vs. 84% (and even less, when one takes into effect limited snap counts in some of those games)

-possibly, his game vs KC.  Mahomes moved him around the field with his eyes and fundamentally pwn'd him in coverage - not on him, but highlighted weaknesses

 

Decision he may have to make:

-the team that offers to pay him may not be the greatest organization.  does that matter to him at all?

 

Time will tell.

 

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48 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

Well he shouldn't get it from Buffalo, hopefully for him he finds what he wants.

 

Our lack of ability to cover TEs (all TEs not just kelce, we were nearly worst in the league against them) doesn't scream keep the band together. Get Edmunds some help, Edmunds isn't all pro level but he definitely has potential. 

I agree,  our LB'S were worse in the league covering TE'S,  plenty of cheaper options to keep up to those standards yet he thinks he needs to get paid. I guarantee that on open market this season because of Covid & loss revenues he does not get more than 6-8 mll a season.

 

The fact is the cap is down and many teams are going to need to cut players including the Chiefs who are around 200 mill witn a cap around 176-178.  So that means the supply will go up and demand down,  bad year to be a free agent. Teams were projecting a cap well over 210 mill,  so plenty of cuts coming.  Book it and people and copy this post and let me know if i am wrong.   Do your homework & you will see that the salary cap math this season for all teams is not good

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2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Klein will be here per his contract which improves flexibility but I expect a fair offer to Milano and then a plan to replace him in the draft if he takes more elsewhere. I think the LB position is easier to replace on the draft, and get immediate production from as a rookie,  than say RT. 

 

That's pretty much where I am.  I think we need to improve on OL, which we can't do by filling holes.

 

If it's between Darryl Williams and Matt Milano for limited cap $$, I'm kind of going with Williams.  He brought stability to the RT position we have not seen for years.

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11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That seemed what Beane was alluding to in his presser when he said of Milano "he wants to and he's earned the right to test the market for FA"

Milano thinks he's a difference maker on defense, and he wants to be paid like a top LB.

 

Well, Milano IS a difference maker on defense - when he's on the field.

 

I don't watch enough details of how other teams play to really know who the best comparators for Milano might be on OTC's list of 4-3 OLBs - many of them are listed by pro-football-reference as MLB!!!

 

The best comparable might be Deion Jones of ATL who got paid 2 years ago (2019).  6'1, 227.  He had an injury shortened 3rd season and appeared in 77% of his games at the point where he re-upped, vs Milano at 84%.  Similar size guy.  He got $57 million for 4 years with $18.8M fully guaranteed.  Average of $14.25/yr. 

 

Maybe Shaq Thompson? 

 

The bottom line is that the Bills are in a quandry.  Milano slots in exactly as a homegrown "draft and develop" success of a player they say they want to keep. 

 

On the other hand, as @WideNine and @BADOLBILZ have pointed out, competitive players that try to do too much may get injured more often.  Josh Allen isn't the only fiercely-competitive guy who wants to win on every down.  Bills can't afford to keep a "spare" LB for Milano, given that they apparently need to re-work the entire defense to function without him.  I imagine the Bills would like to craft a contract with per-game roster bonuses and other incentives.

 

I imagine Milano believes he's earned the right to be paid, period.

 

Working for him:

-excellent player with exceptional coverage skills for LB

-difference maker for our defense when on the field

-when he played a full season in 2019, put up great tackle stats

-end of this season, put up very good sack/QB hit stats AND flashed in coverage

 

Working against him:

-tight cap for most of the league.  marketing himself to a limited set of teams who make best use of his size/skills AND have cap available to pay him

-hasn't had a complete season yet where he put up both great tackle numbers AND difference-maker plays (TFL, QB hits/sacks)

-availability.  most of the top paid guys (other than Jones) have appeared in 5-9 more games/4 years - available 92-95% of games over 4 yrs vs. 84% (and even less, when one takes into effect limited snap counts in some of those games)

-possibly, his game vs KC.  Mahomes moved him around the field with his eyes and fundamentally pwn'd him in coverage - not on him, but highlighted weaknesses

 

Decision he may have to make:

-the team that offers to pay him may not be the greatest organization.  does that matter to him at all?

 

Time will tell.

 

In a normal year he would have been paid,  this is not a normal free agency year.  Plenty of teams will be cutting players just to get under the cap,  their spread sheets do not add up.  The projected cap was targeted at around 210-215,  Beane talked about this in his presser.  He is lucky to sign for around 6-8 million this season on open market and Beane knows that.  So beyond what he is worth,  you have to consider supply & demand and how many teams have cap space space.

 

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8 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

The fact is the cap is down and many teams are going to need to cut players including the Chiefs who are around 200 mill witn a cap around 176-178.  So that means the supply will go up and demand down,  bad year to be a free agent. Teams were projecting a cap well over 210 mill,  so plenty of cuts coming.  Book it and people and copy this post and let me know if i am wrong.   Do your homework & you will see that the salary cap math this season for all teams is not good

 

If you look at a salary tracking site like Overthecap, you will see that 8 teams have >$20M over a projected cap of $176M.  16 teams have $7M or more free.

All Milano needs is one team with free cap $$ and a need for a LB of his skill set.

 

Was that the math you had in mind?

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8 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So if he leaves say this March, do we get the extra pick in 2021 or would it be the 2022 draft?

2022, but it’s not an automatic comp pick. It is factored into the comp pick formula and weighed against FA adds, etc

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10 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

In a normal year he would have been paid,  this is not a normal free agency year.  Plenty of teams will be cutting players just to get under the cap,  their spread sheets do not add up.  The projected cap was targeted at around 210-215,  Beane talked about this in his presser.  He is lucky to sign for around 6-8 million this season on open market and Beane knows that.  So beyond what he is worth,  you have to consider supply & demand and how many teams have cap space space.

 

Yes, it's not an average year.  The point is, what average teams or "plenty of teams" do, doesn't necessarily impact Milano.  All he needs is one of the 8-10 teams who are in a favorable cap position to 1) need a LB with his skill set to improve their D 2) decide he's their guy, and he can get paid. 

 

I don't have a good feel for the defensive styles and needs of the teams with free cap space, but (for example) Washington has $35M in free cap and a HC who may have some philosophical alignment to McDermott's defense as well as a DC who played LB, for example.

 

49 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Culture maker?  Guess he wants to let it be known he’s ok going to a rebuilding team as long as they pay him.  

 

That's how I read that statement.

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