The more I think about it the more I realize ertz needs to be a Bill

[dave mcbride]

On 1/28/2021 at 10:28 PM, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Saw this earlier

 

Over the hill and a $12 cap hit. 

$8 million for the Bills, $12 million for Philly. The Bills wouldn’t be on the hook for any prorated bonus. $8 million is a lot, but it’s all salary and can easily be restructured. https://overthecap.com/player/zach-ertz/112/

17 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Ertz could end up returning to form. He had an injury-plagued year, but is one year removed from 88 catches. And he had been a model of consistency and high production for years. 
 

That said, how is he better than Knox?  If you watch his highlights, he goes out 7 yards and makes a catch. That’s it. You just wonder if the Bills really wanted to make Knox a big part of their offense, they could. They just don’t, either by design or because Josh doesn’t want to take those 6-yard dump downs to the TE. 

He is grrwt at finding open spaces in zones. Great, great route runner. Knox is very talented physically, but he plays the game like a WR and doesn’t do what the Kelces and Ertzes are so good at doing.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

 

He is grrwt at finding open spaces in zones. Great, great route runner. Knox is very talented physically, but he plays the game like a WR and doesn’t do what the Kelces and Ertzes are so good at doing.

I haven’t studied all of these guys’ route running. But it seems to me from watching game highlights of Ertz and Kelce, their bread and butter is to go straight out about 7 yards and just sit down in the zone. That seems easy enough for Knox to do, and I have seen him do it. 
 

Maybe running deeper routes or getting behind the LB’s— yeah, ertz and Kelce may be far superior. But I have this sneaking suspicion that Knox can do that too. He has the size, speed, athleticism of ertz and Kelce. I just wonder if they made him more of a focal point, he would be more of a threat and produce a lot more. 

[BuffaloRebound]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I haven’t studied all of these guys’ route running. But it seems to me from watching game highlights of Ertz and Kelce, their bread and butter is to go straight out about 7 yards and just sit down in the zone. That seems easy enough for Knox to do, and I have seen him do it. 
 

Maybe running deeper routes or getting behind the LB’s— yeah, ertz and Kelce may be far superior. But I have this sneaking suspicion that Knox can do that too. He has the size, speed, athleticism of ertz and Kelce. I just wonder if they made him more of a focal point, he would be more of a threat and produce a lot more. 

Bills can’t wait around hoping Knox turns into something he hasn’t been.  He hasn’t shown that he can catch balls cleanly.  The drops and fumbles are killers but so is the fact that his hands aren’t sure enough to catch it cleanly and turn it upfield.  He can be a good #2TE/ gadget halfback type, but this offense needs a chain moving TE that defenses need to respect to take another step.  

[BillsFan2313]

He had 88 receptions, 900+ yards, 6 tds in 2019.

 

The Eagles were a mess this past year. I would take a flier on him for sure.  Oft injured seems a little misleading. He had a significant injury early in his career, but has missed a total of  10 games since 2016

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Bills can’t wait around hoping Knox turns into something he hasn’t been.  He hasn’t shown that he can catch balls cleanly.  The drops and fumbles are killers but so is the fact that his hands aren’t sure enough to catch it cleanly and turn it upfield.  He can be a good #2TE/ gadget halfback type, but this offense needs a chain moving TE that defenses need to respect to take another step.  

 

You may be right. But Knox only has been in the NFL for 2 years, and, as I recall, was a bit more of a raw prospect coming out of college. Do you give up on him, or give him another 1-2 years to see what his ceiling is? 
 

In terms of his size, speed, and athleticism, there is no question that he is elite. Can we significantly improve his hands, route running, blocking, and feel? 

 

 

[Rc2catch]

I’d rather bargain shop for competition for Knox. 
Gerald Everett 

Trey Burton 

Jordan Reed.

These guys should come at a fraction of the cost Ertz will get. 

[BuffaloRebound]

Just now, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

You may be right. But Knox only has been in the NFL for 2 years, and, as I recall, was a bit more of a raw prospect coming out of college. Do you give up on him, or give him another 1-2 years to see what his ceiling is? 
 

In terms of his size, speed, and athleticism, there is no question that he is elite. Can we significantly improve his hands, route running, blocking, and feel? 

 

 

Definitely not advocating giving up on Knox, but he hasn’t shown enough to not find a veteran upgrade.  

[Buffalo03]

If you want a TE, get Hunter Henry. He's a FA and won't have to give up anything

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Just now, Buffalo03 said:

If you want a TE, get Hunter Henry. He's a FA and won't have to give up anything

Too expensive. My gut too is that the Chargers will re-sign him before he hits the market— I think he is too valuable to what they do. 

[Bobby Hooks]

I like the idea of getting another TE, but I’m not sure about Ertz. I think he’d want too much. 

 

Not keeping Knox around would be ludicrous. He’s young, and still on his rookie deal. Him and Sweeney as the 2nd and 3rd option are perfect as they’re cheaper and are only going to get better. 

 

Being in the position we’re in now having to pay big money for key pieces we’re not going to have as many options free agency wise as people here seem to think. 

 

We’re playing big boy ball now. We need our top guys to keep doing what they’re doing and hope the young guys step up. 

 

Its all about drafting well and getting the most out of the talent we’ve got. That’s not to say we can’t get lucky and have Beane work his magic and get us some nice pieces at reasonable cost. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Bobby Hooks

[4merper4mer]

Ertz proved this year that he is all about Ertz.  

[78thealltimegreat]

He’s definitely an upgrade over Knox might give the Birds a call if I where Beane 

Edited February 14, 2021 by 78thealltimegreat

[4merper4mer]

He absolutely blew this year.  Made Knox look like Kittle.

[John from Riverside]

I think beane will be patient but probably has his eye on it

[Aussie Joe]

Breaking news ...

[Rc2catch]

If he starts running now he will be open for a 15 yard catch come September. 
 

Seriously the guy has no wheels left. If he becomes a free agent maybe toss a couple bucks at him. But no way would I want to send even a 5th rounder for his 8 million dollar salary 

[Rigotz]

We have A LOT of threads about this already.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

38 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

He absolutely blew this year.  Made Knox look like Kittle.

 I'm not saying Ertz is a stud TE anymore, but when you only have 288 yards(Ranked 34th for TEs & behind Ertz)for the year and can't block to save your life, you don't look like Kittle when compared to someone off the street.

 

 One difference between the two is Knox had a QB who completed nearly 70% of his passes and finished 2nd in the MVP race and the other had 2 QBs who were just horrible at throwing the ball this year. 

 

 Wentz completed 57.4% of his passes and had a 72.8 QB Rating, Fields completed 52.0% of his throws with a 77.6 QB Rating. Neither finished above 32nd in either category.

 

I'm not advocating for Ertz over Knox, but at the same time I think it's time for the team to strongly consider moving on from Knox being the #1 TE. JMO

[Chicken Boo]

I feel bad for Ertz.  He was on the verge of a monster contract but the injury bug screwed him.

[Rc2catch]

33 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 I'm not saying Ertz is a stud TE anymore, but when you only have 288 yards(Ranked 34th for TEs & behind Ertz)for the year and can't block to save your life, you don't look like Kittle when compared to someone off the street.

 

 One difference between the two is Knox had a QB who completed nearly 70% of his passes and finished 2nd in the MVP race and the other had 2 QBs who were just horrible at throwing the ball this year. 

 

 Wentz completed 57.4% of his passes and had a 72.8 QB Rating, Fields completed 52.0% of his throws with a 77.6 QB Rating. Neither finished above 32nd in either category.

 

I'm not advocating for Ertz over Knox, but at the same time I think it's time for the team to strongly consider moving on from Knox being the #1 TE. JMO

Ertz had 330 yards on 70+ targets. 
Knox had 288 on 40+ targets. 
Is Ertz really better than Knox at this stage of their careers? Even at his best Ertz was seeing a crazy amount of targets his way and was featured non stop in that offense. We don’t feature the tight end that much and probably never will unless Knox or some no name blows up or we acquire a legit elite tight end. Knox will 100% face some competition for his job this upcoming season though and that’s deserved. 

[Mountain Man]

On 28/01/2021 at 2:55 AM, Adamb412 said:

He's almost as explosive as kelce

Did you actually watch him last season? 

[NewEra]

10 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 I'm not saying Ertz is a stud TE anymore, but when you only have 288 yards(Ranked 34th for TEs & behind Ertz)for the year and can't block to save your life, you don't look like Kittle when compared to someone off the street.

 

 One difference between the two is Knox had a QB who completed nearly 70% of his passes and finished 2nd in the MVP race and the other had 2 QBs who were just horrible at throwing the ball this year. 

 

 Wentz completed 57.4% of his passes and had a 72.8 QB Rating, Fields completed 52.0% of his throws with a 77.6 QB Rating. Neither finished above 32nd in either category.

 

I'm not advocating for Ertz over Knox, but at the same time I think it's time for the team to strongly consider moving on from Knox being the #1 TE. JMO

😱

that said, I’d offer him 4-5 mill a year if the Eagles cut him

[Iamkrgr]

If the Eagles cut him I can see us having interest if he’s cheap enough. Would make sense for him as well on a shorter term deal. Passing offence, elite qb, major hole at TE. 
 

I think Ertz, Knox and Sweeney would be a decent TE room. You might even see a bit of a resurgence from Ertz. 

[dpberr]

A team might get one solid year out of a 30 year old TE that's had some pretty serious injuries.  This is a young man's position, Gronkowski SB glory aside.  

 

The Eagles are overvaluing both he and Wentz at the moment.    

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, Iamkrgr said:

If the Eagles cut him I can see us having interest if he’s cheap enough. Would make sense for him as well on a shorter term deal. Passing offence, elite qb, major hole at TE. 
 

I think Ertz, Knox and Sweeney would be a decent TE room. You might even see a bit of a resurgence from Ertz. 

Because of his age and down 2020 season, Ertz doesn't exactly have alot of negotiating leverage in a low cap year. So I would offer him 3/14M maybe with incentives. I'm so tired of the Bills organization traditionally ignoring the importance of a quality TE.

Edited February 14, 2021 by LABILLBACKER

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Because of his age and down 2020 season, Ertz doesn't exactly have alot of negotiating leverage in a covid cap year. So I would offer him 3/14M maybe with incentives. I'm so tired of the Bills organization traditionally ignoring the importance of a quality TE.

I personally don’t really care if he comes here and I would probably prefer to spend the FA money elsewhere on more pressing needs and even consider drafting a TE on Day 2...( Brevin Jordan?) ...

 

However I think some team (Jaguars maybe?) offers Ertz more than you are speculating..... He has a ring already so I see him chasing his last big payday...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

If Ertz is the answer, WTF is the question?

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

If Ertz is the answer, WTF is the question?

Do we have a reliable TE?

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

17 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

Ertz had 330 yards on 70+ targets. 
Knox had 288 on 40+ targets. 
Is Ertz really better than Knox at this stage of their careers? Even at his best Ertz was seeing a crazy amount of targets his way and was featured non stop in that offense. We don’t feature the tight end that much and probably never will unless Knox or some no name blows up or we acquire a legit elite tight end. Knox will 100% face some competition for his job this upcoming season though and that’s deserved. 

 I'm not advocating trading for him and taking on his current contract, but in saying that...

 

 I don't believe targets necessarily equals production especially when you're playing with 2 of the most inaccurate QBs in the league last year, one being a rookie. It's not like he had a bunch of drops. From looking it up it was less than 5. He came into 2020 averaging over 800 yards and 5 TDs a year. That's with a bunch of different starting QBs in his career, none that were as close to as good as Josh is right now. I think he's a far better security blanket for Josh than Knox is. We could also put both on the field to create matchup problems for opposing defenses.

 

I wouldn't object to offering 3-5 million a year for a 2-3 year contract, if he declines the offer so be it. He'll only be 30 when the season starts, which is younger than both Gronk & Kelce(Not stating he's as good, just younger than both). 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

On 1/28/2021 at 12:11 AM, NewEra said:

Agreed.  I really feel TE is low on mcBeanes priority list.  Maybe a draft pick, but I don’t see him spending more than 5 mill a year on a TE. 

I think it’s extremely high on the list. He flat out said they need better production out of the position. 

[Rc2catch]

18 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 I'm not advocating trading for him and taking on his current contract, but in saying that...

 

 I don't believe targets necessarily equals production especially when you're playing with 2 of the most inaccurate QBs in the league last year, one being a rookie. It's not like he had a bunch of drops. From looking it up it was less than 5. He came into 2020 averaging over 800 yards and 5 TDs a year. That's with a bunch of different starting QBs in his career, none that were as close to as good as Josh is right now. I think he's a far better security blanket for Josh than Knox is. We could also put both on the field to create matchup problems for opposing defenses.

 

I wouldn't object to offering 3-5 million a year for a 2-3 year contract, if he declines the offer so be it. He'll only be 30 when the season starts, which is younger than both Gronk & Kelce(Not stating he's as good, just younger than both). 

Look at his previous years when things weren’t terrible in Philly. He was a target monster. They’ve peppered him over the years with targets. I don’t think he’s anything special. Knox deserves some competition and if Ertz hits free agency I wouldn’t be upset if they made him a reasonable offer. I don’t think it changes anything with our offense or makes us much better though. I’d be shocked if he caught 3 passes a game here or was featured in our game plans 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I think it’s extremely high on the list. He flat out said they need better production out of the position. 

We shall see.  I like the prospect of being dangerous, throwing and running out of 2 TE sets.  
 

the way I see this offseason:  we don’t have a ton of resources available as of now.  We can create room by cutting several players but also creating a hole for every player cut.  We MUST improve our pass rush. We MUST improve our running game.  Between the holes that we’re going to have via free agents and guys cut, I don’t know how we’re going to be able to bolster the OL and become a top pass rush unit if we use one of our top resources on a TE.

Edited February 14, 2021 by NewEra

[LabattBlue]

For all the people begging for a TE to replace Knox, you do realize that means less targets for Diggs, Beasley, Davis and Brown(or whomever replaces him).   There are only so many passes thrown in a game, so why piss away a ton of cap space or a high draft pick on a new TE that may not get used anymore than Knox currently does?

[Success]

We gave up a lot for a skill player last year.  Now, that skill player changed who we are in a big way - but that doesn't mean you keep repeating the pattern.

 

We have enough on offense. The Bucs just gave us a nice blueprint to work with - shore up the D, and get some playmakers there. Build the lines.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BTB said:

For all the people begging for a TE to replace Knox, you do realize that means less targets for Diggs, Beasley, Davis and Brown(or whomever replaces him).   There are only so many passes thrown in a game, so why piss away a ton of cap space or a high draft pick on a new TE that may not get used anymore than Knox currently does?

 

You have to see Ertz as much more of an "offensive weapon" than tight end. He has played in line less than 50% of his snaps in both of the past two seasons where he has been over 50% wide or (primarily) in the slot. 

 

I am not mad keen on signing him to tell the truth. He is every bit as much of a liability blocking as Knox and if we are spending money on a pure pass catcher I'd rather go for speed outside but I can see the argument for Ertz and it is less about spending big $$s on a traditional tight end.

[Simon Says]

You don't have to cut Kroft,he's a free agent 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I think it’s extremely high on the list. He flat out said they need better production out of the position. 

 

The thing is, Beane mentioned a lot of places where the team needs better production.

He said the run D wasn't always the greatest.  We have a FA LB we need to make a decision about, and to replace if we don't keep him, and that also points at the DL

He said we need to affect the opposing QB more in both pass D and pass rush - that points to the DBs, and to the underwhelming production from the DL and the need for an improved pass rush. 

 

He mentioned we need more "balance" in our offense and we need to run it when we have to.

He said it's unfair to "single out" the backs, but he also pointed problems where they didn't hit the hole.  That points to a need to upgrade at RB but also at OL.

He said we need "speed", that would include at RB and WR.

We've got 3 FA OLmen and he mentioned that if we can't bring back Williams we need to sign some people to replace them.

Then he said "we never got to the point where opponents said we've got to keep their TE from going off, that points for a need to upgrade at TE.

 

Maybe you can suss out Beane's priorities from that, not sure I can.  I'm sure he'd like to upgrade everywhere but with cap limitations that won't be possible.

 

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Do we have a reliable TE?

 

When is the last time a team faced the Eagles and said "we've got to keep Zach Ertz from going off"? or worried about his speed?

 

This past season he had a 50% catch % and 7% drops

 

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

When is the last time a team faced the Eagles and said "we've got to keep Zach Ertz from going off"? or worried about his speed?

 

This past season he had a 50% catch % and 7% drops

 

 

And the speed matters with Ertz because of the way he has been used. This isn't Jason Witten an all round in line guy who still has some value as a blocker and short yardage chain mover over the middle matched up on linebackers well into his 30s. Ertz is used less than 50% of the time in a traditional tight end position. So he is going to be covered by DBs (safeties especially) more often than a more traditional tight end and if the speed has declined (I am not saying it has by the way he never looked properly healthy to me this year even when he was out there) it will reduce his effectiveness pretty quickly. 

[BuffaloRebound]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You have to see Ertz as much more of an "offensive weapon" than tight end. He has played in line less than 50% of his snaps in both of the past two seasons where he has been over 50% wide or (primarily) in the slot. 

 

I am not mad keen on signing him to tell the truth. He is every bit as much of a liability blocking as Knox and if we are spending money on a pure pass catcher I'd rather go for speed outside but I can see the argument for Ertz and it is less about spending big $$s on a traditional tight end.

i haven’t watched many Vikings games, but Kyle Rudolph is mentioned as potential cap casualty there.  He’s a big dude who’s viewed as a good blocker, more along the lines of a Gronk.  If he has anything left, he might be the type who can help the offense with his blocking and ability to move the chains when we need to grind it out.  

[DCOrange]

15 hours ago, Success said:

We gave up a lot for a skill player last year.  Now, that skill player changed who we are in a big way - but that doesn't mean you keep repeating the pattern.

 

We have enough on offense. The Bucs just gave us a nice blueprint to work with - shore up the D, and get some playmakers there. Build the lines.

 

To be fair, Tampa also had better WRs than Buffalo (though no doubt Buffalo's are very very good), 3 tight ends that are better than our best, a better OLine, and better RBs lol.

 

Edit: This isn't an endorsement of acquiring Ertz.

Edited February 15, 2021 by DCOrange